Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
Fess
Member
What trap??
You realise 2019 would be six years, right?
No PlayStation console in history has ever lasted longer than six years before being replaced.
Shin
Banned
Some fail to notice that because of all the games that are coming out and/or they have to play.
It's understandable in a way, I'm all for a new generation though.
Blam
Member
Of releasing a "new" console (0.5 jump instead of 1) over and over.
Shin
Banned
Regarding the 4K TV % statement, this is what I found: http://4k.com/news/4k-tv-sales-expected-to-grow-almost-40-in-2017-19818/
Not that it holds any water on what PlayStation will do, but it makes perfect sense to push 4K especially when Sony themselves sell 4K TV's and the lot.
I just hope the machine will be capable to drive true 4K with all bells and whistles and not cut corners (well maybe with the exception of FPS).
Not that it holds any water on what PlayStation will do, but it makes perfect sense to push 4K especially when Sony themselves sell 4K TV's and the lot.
I just hope the machine will be capable to drive true 4K with all bells and whistles and not cut corners (well maybe with the exception of FPS).
Commanche Raisin Toast
Member
For BC to happen I think Sony would need to be planning this with AMD from the beginning. Basically saying "we need our next SoC to be next gen but also able to run all of the old Jaguar based PS4 stuff. Can you design it like this?"
Might be asking a lot, but I wonder if they'd consider another dual SKU situation with the only difference being one has a shrunken Jaguar SoC separate and the other doesn't have it at all.
Might be asking a lot, but I wonder if they'd consider another dual SKU situation with the only difference being one has a shrunken Jaguar SoC separate and the other doesn't have it at all.
Pro can already do that.
But you will always have whatever portion of the developers who will push the system so that compromises kick in... unless platform holders enforce some standard (extremely unlikely) the resolution and/or framerate gate is here to stay.
Uno Venova
Banned
That...would be horrible news actually. New games are still impressing visually, it doesn't feel like the generation needs to start that early.
Part of the reason the PS4 was a success was the absolute fervor there was for new consoles, everything about the 7th generation felt tired and old.
Part of the reason the PS4 was a success was the absolute fervor there was for new consoles, everything about the 7th generation felt tired and old.
LordBaztion
Member
I would like a $400 PS5 in 2019 to see how it compares to the 1X.
Blam
Member
Yeah and nothing this generation feels like it needs to be replaced, yet we are replacing them anyway.
Maintaining high or low console hardware sales price is not the reason for changing the length of the generation. Interest of the public in the software is the most important thing. Best timing for introducing new generation is when current owners become less interested in buying new games, which happened strongly in 2013 with PS3/X360.
I say that PS4 needs to become MORE affordable in 2017-19.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Tech is always getting cheaper, as even newer tech comes out, so by the time the PS5 comes out, they should be able to make it a good amount more powerful than the X, even at $399.
Just getting a better CPU in next gen systems will be a big upgrade over PS4, PS4 Pro / Xbox One, Xbox One X, even if the GPU power isn't a massive leap. Although I would still expect around 10 Tflop for the GPU.
LordOcidax
Member
It makes sense, even Nintendo needs to follow this route.
I think he is correct, at least in terms of GPU. Next gen GPUs may only be around twice times as powerful as the PS4 Pro. The real leap will come with the CPU
Looking at historic numbers. it seems that Tflops in GPUs scale almost perfectly with transistor density
28nm: GTX 960 (2,3 TF) 16nm: GTX 1060 (3,8 TF)
28nm: GTX 980 (4,6 TF) 16nm: GTX 1080 GTX 1080 (8,2 TF)
(65 to 75 percent leap both in terms of transistor density and tflops)
If this is true next gen GPUs with 7nm technology released in 2019 should be around 120-130 percent more powerful than current gen 16nm nvidia cards (less for AMD cards and the ps4 pro which already uses 14nm technology).
7nm GTX 1160: 8,5 TF
7nm GTX 1180: 18,4 TF
So if next gen consoles use mid range GPUs (a la GTX 1160/RX 680) we could expect 8-9 TF graphic cards in them. Combine that with a much better CPU a la RYZEN enabling 60 fps gameplay and we have a ok leap (at least in relation to the original PS4 and Xbox one 6-8, times as powerful in terms of GPU, I guess more than 10 times as powerful as the PS4 in terms of CPU). The 399-499 USD price range is clearly achievable I think. However, XB1X owners who do not care about 60 fps wont have much incentives to upgrade since they only get a slight 40-60 percent increase in GPU power (at the 399 price point)...
Looking at historic numbers. it seems that Tflops in GPUs scale almost perfectly with transistor density
28nm: GTX 960 (2,3 TF) 16nm: GTX 1060 (3,8 TF)
28nm: GTX 980 (4,6 TF) 16nm: GTX 1080 GTX 1080 (8,2 TF)
(65 to 75 percent leap both in terms of transistor density and tflops)
If this is true next gen GPUs with 7nm technology released in 2019 should be around 120-130 percent more powerful than current gen 16nm nvidia cards (less for AMD cards and the ps4 pro which already uses 14nm technology).
7nm GTX 1160: 8,5 TF
7nm GTX 1180: 18,4 TF
So if next gen consoles use mid range GPUs (a la GTX 1160/RX 680) we could expect 8-9 TF graphic cards in them. Combine that with a much better CPU a la RYZEN enabling 60 fps gameplay and we have a ok leap (at least in relation to the original PS4 and Xbox one 6-8, times as powerful in terms of GPU, I guess more than 10 times as powerful as the PS4 in terms of CPU). The 399-499 USD price range is clearly achievable I think. However, XB1X owners who do not care about 60 fps wont have much incentives to upgrade since they only get a slight 40-60 percent increase in GPU power (at the 399 price point)...
Bitch Pudding
Member
Yup, console business is and was always following the "give away the lamp and sell the oil" aka Rockefeller principle. Subscriptions and royalties / licences are the main profit drivers in this business (for console makers). So PS4 (Pro) becoming cheaper is not a clear sign of a reduced customer interest in the platform.
Lately? I've never seen him right once.
alexbull_uk
Member
2020, and theyll want it as powerful as possible.
I could see/expect PS4 BC though.
I could see/expect PS4 BC though.
The last guy was fired when he predicted Colecovision 2 to compete with Dreamcast.
onemanasylum
Banned
lol...can't be serious.
No one is replacing anything...and it makes total business sense and is working as intended....Saying Sony will be doomed is silly. High end users having an option for 4k is not a bad thing...at all.
The fact that we are already looking for PS5 in the next 2 or so years shows that UHD Blu-ray drive in PS4 Pro would have been a waste of time & resource as far as gaming goes because they will have to address the 4K assets size when PS5 come out anyway so most likely there will be a higher capacity disc coming out when the PS5 come out.
Lys Skygge
Member
I'd be ok with a half-step GPU upgrade if it meant PS5 had a vastly superior CPU than the PS4. The current CPU seems to be holding more back than the GPU.
Darklor01
Might need to stop sniffing glue
PS4U?
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Seems legit and even though the leap might not be massive on paper, it's still decent and the fact that games will be designed for the PS5, not older hardware (PS4) so developers will be able to take full advantage of the hardware.
The CPU is going to be the most important thing for next gen, graphics are already really good now, so getting more games to 60fps would be a real step up for next gen.
The PS3 came out in 2007 in Europe (and the PS3's release was delayed)
Calibos
Member
This guy is the king of "No shit" news and speculation. He gives me heartburn every time hes talks about the future of gaming.
Of course PS5 will be powerful and have PS4/PS4 pro BC...Of course it will launch in a couple more years. It will probably be looked at as a half step by some people, but I feel like those people are still looking at the big picture through a console generation lens.
He needs a new fresh angle on things. Just my opinion I guess.
Of course PS5 will be powerful and have PS4/PS4 pro BC...Of course it will launch in a couple more years. It will probably be looked at as a half step by some people, but I feel like those people are still looking at the big picture through a console generation lens.
He needs a new fresh angle on things. Just my opinion I guess.
rokkerkory
Member
Half step? As long as they no longer use jaguar / puma cpu please for the love of god
Playstation 5 in fall 2019 would be 6 years after PS4 came out, and 3 years after the pro. it makes sense. PS5 will have backwards compatibility but i expect a more powerful CPU. I also predict multiple 1st party games will come out for PS4 and PS5. Death Stranding, Last of Us 2. FFVII Remake, Cyberpunk, and your CoDs, battlefields, and ACreeds will be third party support. and i think you're going to find ps4 support for quite a while.
4K Blu-ray and possibly using those discs for PS5 games. needs the space. though it may be cool to get non disk physical media. not sure if they want to start paving the way for diskless future or not.
I think it needs to be aiming towards 10 TF's.
But i would say I'd almost rather they try to make a PS4 fit into something Switch sized.
4K Blu-ray and possibly using those discs for PS5 games. needs the space. though it may be cool to get non disk physical media. not sure if they want to start paving the way for diskless future or not.
I think it needs to be aiming towards 10 TF's.
But i would say I'd almost rather they try to make a PS4 fit into something Switch sized.
Fess
Member
Aha. I'm guessing that'll be the norm going forward tbh. And that's probably for the best for Sony because what if PS5 comes out in 2019 and the next one arrives 2024, then MS comes out with a slightly better one in 2020-2021. That would be an uphill battle for sure, weaker hardware for 3-4 years is not ideal. :/
It never bothered the PS2. Or the Wii. Or the DS. Or the 3DS. Or the Xbox 360 against PS3, at least early on.
captianpants
Neo Member
and I think ps5 is going to be equipped with a time machine .
see ? I can just make up stuff too
see ? I can just make up stuff too
UpDownLeftRight
Banned
Well this sucks, Pachter saying it will support BC has pretty much ruined all chances of a BC PS5.
Theonik
Member
I'd say 2020 I'm not sure what he means by a half step. Sony is calling a major cpu change a full gen and the ps5 certainly will be.
PS3?
spazchicken
Member
Is he asking if PS5 games will run at 240 fps?
Mikey Jr.
Member
I feel like the pro kind of reset a lot of people's expectations of a new console in the back of their mind.
Also, and just my opinion, as every generation goes on, I feel less and less desire for a new gen.
I mean, I look at what pc can do now, and....mehhhh?
Obviously nicer than PS4, but it doesn't feel like a huge jump like previous Gen's were.
PlayALLtheGames
Banned
Hope that's 240fps locked.
lol
lol
If we can get games looking as good as Spider-Man, God of War, Horizon, etc at 60fps on PS5 then I'll be more than pleased (I know 30fps will still exist, just talking in terms of capability).
I really don't see the controversy with this.
The timeline is reasonable.
By 'half step' he means 'another half' beyond the half-step of the Pro - i.e. a full step beyond the PS4. Nevermind that this is essentially a meaningless statement from someone in his position in any case. I don't think he's suggesting he knows anything about the machine, just what he expects it to be. I think people are tripping over that when there's nothing there.
The timeline is reasonable.
By 'half step' he means 'another half' beyond the half-step of the Pro - i.e. a full step beyond the PS4. Nevermind that this is essentially a meaningless statement from someone in his position in any case. I don't think he's suggesting he knows anything about the machine, just what he expects it to be. I think people are tripping over that when there's nothing there.
The Omega Man
Member
Is there any hardware that can do 240fps @4K?
Something capable of those feats is not a half-step, and if such capable hardware exist or will exist by 2019/2020 it will cost and arm and a leg
Something capable of those feats is not a half-step, and if such capable hardware exist or will exist by 2019/2020 it will cost and arm and a leg
rokkerkory
Member
Cerny hinted 8TFs for true / native 4k games so I bet we'll get something around that power level gpu wise but cpu will be much beefier.
Gonna say 8.5 TF to 9.5 TF gpu with zen-lite cpu. $399.
Gonna say 8.5 TF to 9.5 TF gpu with zen-lite cpu. $399.
Alter_Fridge
Member
Lmao
jonscrambler
Member
I wish it's 2018, but 2019 will do
Trogdor1123
Member
Sounds about right.
We're not going to see something with 10x the power anymore. It's just not happening. I think we may see 10x the original ps4 though. So like 12 tf.
It's on x86 to so bc should be easier and the time frame is about right too.
Don't know why you folks are going bananas over things that make actual sense.
We're not going to see something with 10x the power anymore. It's just not happening. I think we may see 10x the original ps4 though. So like 12 tf.
It's on x86 to so bc should be easier and the time frame is about right too.
Don't know why you folks are going bananas over things that make actual sense.