This site has some live wind updates, but it may be on a delay or the weather station has been destroyed: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=BARA9&num=12&raw=0
Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|
- Thread starter perfectchaos007
- Start date
GFS was updated in July. It messed with the pressure readings and the GFS is routinely making predications pressures that are way too low. This is due to it not properly taking account ocean/atmosphere interactions that would normally limit how low the pressure would get. Meteorologists have widely acknowledged this. If I wasn't on my phone I'd grab the explanation from weather underground that I posted a few pages back.
Bottom line DO NOT USE the GFS pressure readings. Use the HWRF model for intensity.
Euro has been historically better but I think it remains to be seen if the GFS modifications help with the track forecast.
Chaotic-Strike
Banned
It's a model.
None of them are 100% percent accurate and usually meteorologists use a blend of models to forecast a track. I'm not proficient enough in meteorology to tell you which is generally the better of the two though.
As most meteorologists will say, they don't look for the most accurate model but the one with the least amount of errors. They look for agreement among the models used and then calculate a forecast that seems the most likely when all the variables are considered.
fluffydelusions
Member
Does this meterologist have a good track record of hurricane path prediction?
vonStirlitz
Unconfirmed Member
Man, I have a lot of friends in the Virgin Islands and this is terrible.
To put it in perspective, a Cat 5 with sustained winds of 160 has an equivalent kinetic force to being 3 miles from the Hiroshima bomb. I can only hope the hurricane turns north or dissipates.
A lot of the guys over there only have corrigated iron roofs and self-built homes, which rest near hilltop edges in a lot of cases.
Anyone in the path stay safe, charge all your phones/laptops, fill your bath with water and take care.
To put it in perspective, a Cat 5 with sustained winds of 160 has an equivalent kinetic force to being 3 miles from the Hiroshima bomb. I can only hope the hurricane turns north or dissipates.
A lot of the guys over there only have corrigated iron roofs and self-built homes, which rest near hilltop edges in a lot of cases.
Anyone in the path stay safe, charge all your phones/laptops, fill your bath with water and take care.
mordecaii83
Member
Looks like the latest HWRF model has it going east of Florida like the GFS.
grandjedi6
Master of the Google Search
Well Barbuda's in the eye of the storm now. Prayers out for them.
aspiegamer
Member
3 hours ago: "Phew, the pressure finally stabilized."
*waits*
Now: Oh dammit.
That station on Barbuda broke, with the anemometer reading calm as the pressure continues to go down. It survived a max sustained of 118 and minutes later a peak gust of 155. Can't really fault the equipment for not being built to even more ridiculous tolerances than that. Aaaaaaand now the barometer broke, too, after going as low as 27.20in which is, what, 925ish? It would have been at the very edge of the eye at that time and the temperature has been going up since.
*waits*
Now: Oh dammit.
That station on Barbuda broke, with the anemometer reading calm as the pressure continues to go down. It survived a max sustained of 118 and minutes later a peak gust of 155. Can't really fault the equipment for not being built to even more ridiculous tolerances than that. Aaaaaaand now the barometer broke, too, after going as low as 27.20in which is, what, 925ish? It would have been at the very edge of the eye at that time and the temperature has been going up since.
The energy in even a minor hurricane would power the world multiple times over. Nature is not to be fucked with and humans dun fucked up bad.
Almost everything is to the right of Florida again. This is a miserable thing to try to predict.
Roughly be around 922mb as each millibar is .03 .
SixStringPsycho
Member
Fuck its been since 1998 that we got hit by a Hurricane category 3 (Saw this one when I was 12 years old), and that put this island (PR) upside down looking. Months without Electricity. The infrastructure is bad enough since they havent upgraded, only done maintenance. I remember those paravolical Antennas flying out from my neighbors house. And that was huge. The water wont do much to PR. But the winds. That is what worries me the most. Im documenting the whole thing from my dash cam on my car inside his parking spot which gives it enough cover. Think a palm and a tree are going to break. Then documeng the view I got from the metro area and see what breaks. 2 houses which are from my neighbors are made from wood and Zinc roofs.
mordecaii83
Member
Latest Euro showing east coast now too. Starting to feel a little safer here on the west coast.
maquiladora
Member
Euro has shifted east now too. Just off the Florida coast.
It's too early to say for sure but we could be seeing a trend moving away from a Florida landfall.
It's too early to say for sure but we could be seeing a trend moving away from a Florida landfall.
DiamondDog74
Banned
Have family in Palm harbor. Grew up down there. I can't begin to say how many times we evacuated during my childhood. Everytime we left, I prepared the possibility of never returning to my home. I hope things turn out fine and this thing goes away
maquiladora
Member
Euro just before landfall.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
*whew*
I wish the east coast good luck.
Don't waste Wed/Thurs/Friday and prepare regardless.
I'm still putting up shutters and other misc stuff regardless, at least until the turn occurs.
This was the forecast for Charley at 11AM on the 13th.
It took the most eastern route of the projections.
2PM Projection of Charley:
Basically, shit can change last minute.
I wish the east coast good luck.
Don't waste Wed/Thurs/Friday and prepare regardless.
I'm still putting up shutters and other misc stuff regardless, at least until the turn occurs.
This was the forecast for Charley at 11AM on the 13th.
It took the most eastern route of the projections.
2PM Projection of Charley:
Basically, shit can change last minute.
What town are you at?
UberTag
Member
Irma seems to really want to scope out the sights and sounds of Savannah, Georgia.Euro just before landfall.
SixStringPsycho
Member
Bayamon Santa Juanita Bo. Cerro Gordo
perfectchaos007
Member
Pray for Barbuda.
.
Gonna have to make sure my family in the area is ok and either prepped or evaced.
SixStringPsycho
Member
Despues q no estes en zona inundable. Estas bn.
3am, can't sleep. All the Bahamian islands around us have been or are being evacuated. Last plane tickets off this island were sold yesterday for 2,500 a piece. Storm surge for us now is predicted to be a totally unheard of 15-20 feet, and we're close enough now that there has to be a fairly high level of certainty about these projections, it's not just speculation any more.
Feel like I'm just pacing here, waiting for my house to be destroyed in about 36 hours. 15-20 foot storm surge would destroy my house. A close brush with a cat 5 of this magnitude would very possibly rip the roof off. I bought Mario Kart 8 to distract myself and the title screen is flashing and I can't bring myself to pick up the controller.
Can't deny that I'm starting to get a bit upset here. I hope those guys show up to board my house in a few hours but now it's really the surge that matters - I'm 500 feet from the beach and no more than 9 feet above sea level.
There was a nervousness on the island yesterday. I think there's going to be fullscale fear this morning. Hilariously our office is open today, so I'm going to have to go to work, but I'm just going to put in an appearance at 8am when we open, deal with my emails and then spend the rest of the day preparing.
It's time to start putting the cars of my friends who are abroad up onto hills - I'll be doing that a lot today.
There's a bird chirping outside at 3am. Never heard that before. Maybe it knows?
EDIT: From the AP
Feel like I'm just pacing here, waiting for my house to be destroyed in about 36 hours. 15-20 foot storm surge would destroy my house. A close brush with a cat 5 of this magnitude would very possibly rip the roof off. I bought Mario Kart 8 to distract myself and the title screen is flashing and I can't bring myself to pick up the controller.
Can't deny that I'm starting to get a bit upset here. I hope those guys show up to board my house in a few hours but now it's really the surge that matters - I'm 500 feet from the beach and no more than 9 feet above sea level.
There was a nervousness on the island yesterday. I think there's going to be fullscale fear this morning. Hilariously our office is open today, so I'm going to have to go to work, but I'm just going to put in an appearance at 8am when we open, deal with my emails and then spend the rest of the day preparing.
It's time to start putting the cars of my friends who are abroad up onto hills - I'll be doing that a lot today.
There's a bird chirping outside at 3am. Never heard that before. Maybe it knows?
EDIT: From the AP
As safe as one can be in Bayamón lmao.
maquiladora
Member
Which island are you on Griss.
Providenciales, TCI. The Euro model, which is the one I trust, currently has the eye passing over or 10 miles south of us in exactly 48 hours. I guess it might be out of date though, apprently it updates every 12 hours at 8pm / 8am AST:
Anything could still happen but the time for inaction is long past.
Nathan_Drake
Member
Well Euro and GFS now have it on east coast. Georgia in the middle. I am in Charleston SC well inland a bit. Glad I got gas, water, and candles yesterday but evacuation may be required now. Will keep watching. That would be Monday or Tuesday.Euro just before landfall.
maquiladora
Member
Here is the position on the latest Euro. Ignore the pressure value of 950mb though. The model was initiated about 40mb too high.
Here is the position on the latest Euro. Ignore the pressure value of 950mb though. The model was initiated about 40mb too high.
Thank you for this, very helpful. I appreciate it. That's about what, 20 miles south of Provo where I am? It's 30km, whatever that is.
So it looks like the eye could miss us here but it only takes a wobble for a direct hit. Still looks like a very bad hit to me even if it goes according to this forecast, worth worrying about. We're on the 'dirty' side of the storm here, so what kind of winds could we expect if it gets that close? 100mph? Worse?
Anything over 130mph would wreck us.
maquiladora
Member
The Euro isn't very useful for forecasting wind speed because it's based on the intensity of a 950mb storm when in reality it will probably be less than 920mb.
The official forecast from the NHC for that position is :
The strongest winds will be in the Northeast quadrant so that track does look quite dangerous for you. The latest GFS has the track north of you though, and if that happened the winds would be a lot less severe.
maquiladora
Member
The east trend continues....
Big east turn on 5 am update
If ever the 'darkest timeline' meme was appropriate, it would be for this update for me, lol.
Still 36 hours to change. Come on baby, change! Walk away!
That's what the locals were saying here yesterday. "May still walk." "It will walk." Where walk means "move away from us". Feels like a fool's hope now though. At least those people were in the hardware store getting prepared. The ladies in my office weren't taking this seriously enough yesterday. I'm going to send an email to all 30 staff today telling them exactly what we're in for and that they live by the beach or in a wooden-frame house that they need to make alternative plans immediately.
EDIT: I was complaining about the forecasting earlier - now the storm is back on the track that the euro and NHC had it on 48 hours ago. That's very impressive for a long-term forecast and has allowed us to prepare. Thanks to all those people.
TarpitCarnivore
Member
The weather and ocean will never stop being fascinating and utterly terrifying to me.
Poltergust
Member
Big east turn on 5 am update
Come on, go more east!
I'm a little more relieved when seeing this, actually. Out of all of my family living in Florida, my sister living in Tampa is the most vulnerable. I don't think her house could've taken the force on the eastern side of the hurricane. I think she and her family will be fine with the western side, though.
Seem calm right now... how long until they should be hit?
neurosisxeno
Member
2-3 hours according to most reports. I see the eye should be right on top of them (BVI) by 2pm EST today.
Caravelle Hotel/Casino, USVI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q2CzQclKQc
maquiladora
Member
The latest GFS model is again showing Irma turning north and staying off the east coast of Florida. A Florida landfall is starting to look more and more unlikely. Still time for things to change but that is the trend right now.
Again aiming for landfall around the Georgia/South Carolina border as an extremely intense hurricane.
Again aiming for landfall around the Georgia/South Carolina border as an extremely intense hurricane.
NCOAA model shows straight up the middle of the state. It's gonna be close either way.
aspiegamer
Member
Lost in the talk of Anguilla with a population of a bit under 15,000 is St Martin which has over 75,000. I too am surprised at that number! Where the heck do all the people live on that island? It's only 34 sq miles (sayeth the Wikipedia) with more than half of it jungle/mountains.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
It finally started the north turn overnight and it looks like here in St. Croix we will avoid the worst. It's grey and ugly outside but nowhere near dangerous. Stay safe everyone.
Captain Tuttle
Member
My sister in law and her stupid husband have finally decided to take themselves and my niece and leave Miami Beach for Irma. I'm relieved that they have finally made a good decision in their lives.
vonStirlitz
Unconfirmed Member
Nice man. Lets hope you stay safe. I am still worried for 'Tola though.