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Coronavirus: a study on who gets seriously ill and dies

Cato

Cato

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I hope this is calming for a lot of people that are very stressed out.
www.bloomberg.com

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

From italy. They have a lot of deaths so they have a lot of data to go on.
TLDR:
* 99% of the people that died had serious underlying issues
* 50% had three or more underlying issues
* average age of the passed are 79.5
* ALL victims under 40 had very serious existing medical conditions

My commentary:
This data if it is valid (they have a lot of datapoints so I would put confidence in it) suggests that
the only real risk is for very old people and people with serious existing medical conditions.
Average people aged 60-70 and less that are in reasonably good health should have little reason to panic.
However the old and very frail needs to be isolated from the rest of society.

I hope that as we now start getting real data this will help calm some of the panic and fear that people have.
We are not all going to die. We are not going to lose 10% of the population young and old alike.
We are however at a serious risk of losing elderly parents and grandparents if we do not ensure that they get the proper isolation they will need.

I hope people will be able to sleep better now.

EDIT: this confirms my thoughts that we should NOT do these shutdown everything and destroy society that some of the panic has led to. Instead we should hide away the vulnerable very old and seriously ill people and just let everyone go on as normal, get infected, get over it and become immune.
 
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matt404au said:
Uncomfortable truth but this is gonna help their economy in the long run
Click to expand...

Very likely will do exactly that.

It will likely also cause permanent lasting damage to the tobacco industry. Something that high taxes has never managed to do.
I have been to italy several times. It is like every elderly man ALWAYS have a lit cigarette in their hands.
I am certain a whole bunch of these underlying conditions are the kind of conditions you get when you have been smoking 50 cigarettes a day since you were 14.
 
This whole thing has been wildly dancing on the verge of fake news. Look, I get it is concerning, but it brings up a lot of good points in the flu comparison. We never counted the number of infections of that, or were concerned about older relatives etc for a common illness that had many of the same consequences. The difference here is a single digit difference in a subset of the already sick and dying. Nevermind that a lot of these people aren't already living long, healthy lives anyways. Now we are crashing the world for them. God forbid you looked into why they had some of these ailments like diabetes, kidney failure, etc. The media loves to tell you about younger people dying to scare you into it.
 
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Super Mario said:
This whole thing has been wildly dancing on the verge of fake news. Look, I get it is concerning, but it brings up a lot of good points in the flu comparison. We never counted the number of infections of that, or were concerned about older relatives etc for a common illness that had many of the same consequences. The difference here is a single digit difference in a subset of the already sick and dying. Nevermind that a lot of these people aren't already living long, healthy lives anyways. Now we are crashing the world for them. God forbid you looked into why they had some of these ailments like diabetes, kidney failure, etc. The media loves to tell you about younger people dying to scare you into it.
Click to expand...
Really? Dead bodies are literally being transported in military trucks from a city to another because they cannot burn the bodies at a fast enough pace. Doctors are making decisions about who lives and dies because there aren't enough ICU beds or ventilators for everyone. And this is ongoing and still growing.

No it's not just the flu and not by a small margin either.
 
jts said:
Really? Dead bodies are literally being transported in military trucks from a city to another because they cannot burn the bodies at a fast enough pace. Doctors are making decisions about who lives and dies because there aren't enough ICU beds or ventilators for everyone. And this is ongoing and still growing.

No it's not just the flu and not by a small margin either.
Click to expand...

Receipt please. And not a link to some twitter thread.

For all we know, it could just be trucks shipping Falungong members to the organ harvesting centre.
 
No. You guys all sound American. It's not about you. What happens when an overwhelming amount of the populace gets sick? Beds, ventilators, gloves etc. run out. When they're gone well.... what happens if you get injured in another way? Car accident? Well beds are full. Supplies gone. Cant fit you in. Then where are you?

You need to use your imaginations. Sadly, the imagination these days is very poor.

You cant just lie on technology to save you. Governments and specialists have done the math. If you stay home for a while this can all be lessened.

But if not.... we're gonna spend our quarantine watchin 'merica tear itself apart.

Just look to France and Italy. The numbers dont lie. They were forced to lock down the country. That wasnt a choice.
 
I wonder what happens if the coronavirus stays on eventually as a form of a seasonal flu. A slaughter among the elderly happening every hear and lifespan worldwide ending up being shortened?
 
Super Mario said:
This whole thing has been wildly dancing on the verge of fake news. Look, I get it is concerning, but it brings up a lot of good points in the flu comparison. We never counted the number of infections of that, or were concerned about older relatives etc for a common illness that had many of the same consequences. The difference here is a single digit difference in a subset of the already sick and dying. Nevermind that a lot of these people aren't already living long, healthy lives anyways. Now we are crashing the world for them. God forbid you looked into why they had some of these ailments like diabetes, kidney failure, etc. The media loves to tell you about younger people dying to scare you into it.
Click to expand...

Glad to know that a virus that is 10 times deadlier than the flu that is more contagious and can kill our fathers, mothers and grandparents is no big deal to you. Hey, if your parent already have lived so long, why don't you put them out of your misery yourself?

Idiot.
 
So if you were previously fucked you're certainly fucked. But if you weren't fucked you're only potentially fucked. Well fuck
 
What is a serious condition? I have skin cancer, hypertension (controlled with Losartin) and a brain aneurism. I'm also 40 and a big sloppy boy.
 
sahlberg said:
EDIT: this confirms my thoughts that we should NOT do these shutdown everything and destroy society that some of the panic has led to. Instead we should hide away the vulnerable very old and seriously ill people and just let everyone go on as normal, get infected, get over it and become immune.
Click to expand...

Right now, how do you tell who is and isn't infected? And how long do you hide away the oldies and ill?

If we just carry on as usual the Corona virus will just keep spreading throughout the world and if could last years.
 
There's still a chance this could mutate in some capacity and start affecting more people. There are way more factors in play here than we really know and it's a highly communicable disease. I thinks it's better to plan for the worst while being cautiously optimistic.
 
jts said:
Really? Dead bodies are literally being transported in military trucks from a city to another because they cannot burn the bodies at a fast enough pace. Doctors are making decisions about who lives and dies because there aren't enough ICU beds or ventilators for everyone. And this is ongoing and still growing.

No it's not just the flu and not by a small margin either.
Click to expand...

Azurro said:
Glad to know that a virus that is 10 times deadlier than the flu that is more contagious and can kill our fathers, mothers and grandparents is no big deal to you. Hey, if your parent already have lived so long, why don't you put them out of your misery yourself?

Idiot.
Click to expand...

Look, I never said there was no concern. There is obviously a crisis going on. It is over exaggerated though. This is not a death sentence. World-wide, more people die each day from heart disease than have died so far from corona virus. Sit on that one. Yet, we have ingrained it in ourselves due to fear that one is worth shutting down the world and the other is business as usual. If everyone had half the noble valor to protect your loved ones from poor life choices than they do from corona fears, then we may not have so many people dying from it in the first place.

Even with all of these things, if you have loved ones that you are concerned about, there absolutely are targeted actions you can take to protect them. They can quarantine you know. Help them out if you are so concerned. Or is it just more noble keyboard warriors expected the world to bend over backwards for them?
 
Makes sense. If this data is true then yes move on protecting the vulnerable and elderly. This can also help hopefully ease the burden on the hospital system. If France and Uk and USA follow suite with tracking this. It could ease concerns maybe map out some kind plan.

Only thing scares me is my kids want lots of hugs etc. I don't feel unwell and I hope I don't have it.Tbh I mostly go to work and come home. Work anti social hours for travelling to work and only now am not travelling by plane as I think it's got to serious so won't do it.

I'm 42 have no underlying health issues but I don't fancy getting sick. I'm Washing my hands a lot. I used to chew pens when nervous I don't do that anymore.
We are just staying at home now until they tell us it's safe to socialise. With other family members.
 
Last edited:
-Troid- said:
There's still a chance this could mutate in some capacity and start affecting more people. There are way more factors in play here than we really know and it's a highly communicable disease. I thinks it's better to plan for the worst while being cautiously optimistic.
Click to expand...
There's also a chance the sky could fall upon us tomorrow. Should we be in constant fear of that too?

There are reasonable and unreasonable responses to possible disasters. So far we're on the side of unreasonable with respect to this Chinese coronavirus. Also, no one is saying that we should stop our efforts to research a vaccine.
 
Super Mario said:
This whole thing has been wildly dancing on the verge of fake news. Look, I get it is concerning, but it brings up a lot of good points in the flu comparison. We never counted the number of infections of that, or were concerned about older relatives etc for a common illness that had many of the same consequences. The difference here is a single digit difference in a subset of the already sick and dying. Nevermind that a lot of these people aren't already living long, healthy lives anyways. Now we are crashing the world for them. God forbid you looked into why they had some of these ailments like diabetes, kidney failure, etc. The media loves to tell you about younger people dying to scare you into it.
Click to expand...

I really do not want my elderly dad or father-in-law dying because some stupid ass culture half way around the world refuses to change their eating and hygiene habits- when they will easily live another 10-15 years even with one of them having type 1 diabetes.
 
sahlberg said:
I hope this is calming for a lot of people that are very stressed out.
www.bloomberg.com

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

From italy. They have a lot of deaths so they have a lot of data to go on.
TLDR:
* 99% of the people that died had serious underlying issues
* 50% had three or more underlying issues
* average age of the passed are 79.5
* ALL victims under 40 had very serious existing medical conditions

My commentary:
This data if it is valid (they have a lot of datapoints so I would put confidence in it) suggests that
the only real risk is for very old people and people with serious existing medical conditions.
Average people aged 60-70 and less that are in reasonably good health should have little reason to panic.
However the old and very frail needs to be isolated from the rest of society.

I hope that as we now start getting real data this will help calm some of the panic and fear that people have.
We are not all going to die. We are not going to lose 10% of the population young and old alike.
We are however at a serious risk of losing elderly parents and grandparents if we do not ensure that they get the proper isolation they will need.

I hope people will be able to sleep better now.

EDIT: this confirms my thoughts that we should NOT do these shutdown everything and destroy society that some of the panic has led to. Instead we should hide away the vulnerable very old and seriously ill people and just let everyone go on as normal, get infected, get over it and become immune.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately a large swathe of the US has underlying medical conditions such as high blood pressure diabetes etc. Even in the 19-25 range you are looking at 10-20% with high blood pressure.
 
Not reassuring. I don't want my parents to die. wtf... It was common sense that if you're healthy there are very slim chances of dying but still..
 
Azurro said:
Glad to know that a virus that is 10 times deadlier than the flu that is more contagious and can kill our fathers, mothers and grandparents is no big deal to you. Hey, if your parent already have lived so long, why don't you put them out of your misery yourself?

Idiot.
Click to expand...
Given that experts freely admit the vast majority of people who contract this virus aren't tested and suffer no serious ill effects, it's pretty fucking stupid claiming that this is '10 times deadlier than the flu'.
 
I'm lucky that my only grandma who is alive already lives in a permanent quarantine. She has trouble to walk so she never leaves her house.

She only leaves for christmas, easter, stuff like that (when we pick her up). So I'm pretty sure she is safe because my aunt is also retired and my cousin who lives with them is also working from home. No one is visiting them now.
 
sahlberg said:
Very likely will do exactly that.

It will likely also cause permanent lasting damage to the tobacco industry. Something that high taxes has never managed to do.
I have been to italy several times. It is like every elderly man ALWAYS have a lit cigarette in their hands.
I am certain a whole bunch of these underlying conditions are the kind of conditions you get when you have been smoking 50 cigarettes a day since you were 14.
Click to expand...

Interesting. This would be a good time for the weed lobby to try to push for legalization to replace tobacco in the US.
 
poppabk said:
Unfortunately a large swathe of the US has underlying medical conditions such as high blood pressure diabetes etc. Even in the 19-25 range you are looking at 10-20% with high blood pressure.
Click to expand...

On the other hand, China has filthy air and lots of smoking too, so I'm sure some amount of pulmonary damage in young people is included in these stats.
 
Super Mario said:
Look, I never said there was no concern. There is obviously a crisis going on. It is over exaggerated though. This is not a death sentence. World-wide, more people die each day from heart disease than have died so far from corona virus. Sit on that one. Yet, we have ingrained it in ourselves due to fear that one is worth shutting down the world and the other is business as usual. If everyone had half the noble valor to protect your loved ones from poor life choices than they do from corona fears, then we may not have so many people dying from it in the first place.

Even with all of these things, if you have loved ones that you are concerned about, there absolutely are targeted actions you can take to protect them. They can quarantine you know. Help them out if you are so concerned. Or is it just more noble keyboard warriors expected the world to bend over backwards for them?
Click to expand...

More than anything it is the amount of people requiring hospitalization and the subsequent crippling of the system that is by far the biggest concern worldwide. This is the main reason for the worldwide response being what it is and it is not an "over exaggeration".
 
CDC just came out with another report showing younger people going into hospitals, but the headlines are bit misleading because they have a huge age range. Most likely CDC numbers will match up with Italy numbers as time goes on.

The problem is the people who end up in the hospital and then the ICU and our societies are not made to handle a huge flux of people needing to go to hospitals all at once.

It isn't a death sentance, and pnemonia is horrible. My cousin told described it to me when he had and he almost died from it. You don't want to essentially not to be able to breath, which is what this is.

But yes it isn't a death sentance, just people don't want to be sick hooked up to machines. If this was 70 years or more ago most likely we would of just let a bunch of people die because we wouldn't have the tech and respirators to save them. So the younger people would just go out and risk it with 2-5% getting really bad pnemonia.

My only question here is if 96-99% of people test negative how can this spread to 60%+ of populations. I mean if we could somehow test everyone in the world 96% would probably come back negative. Are these people immune to the virus? SK test 300K people and 96% negative, it can't be that they chose the 290 K people who just happened to lucky enough not come in contact to an area that was frequented by someone infected, especially since SK does a lot of test to track down cases. So they would be testing people who were around infected people.

But in the end it doesn't matter. Even if this only killed people over 100 and gave 20 years year long boners, everyone around the world has done quarantines. The situation is what it is. Saying it only kills these people or that people won't change the action taken.

I just wonder if the pyramide was reversed and this was mainly killing people under 30 would the world have grounded to halt if most of those at danger weren't at a working age. Imagine if 95% of deaths were under 25. Clearly we would be scared for our children and close schools etc, but I wonder if all this stopping the world would of happened.
 
jufonuk said:
Makes sense. If this data is true then yes move on protecting the vulnerable and elderly. This can also help hopefully ease the burden on the hospital system. If France and Uk and USA follow suite with tracking this. It could ease concerns maybe map out some kind plan.
Click to expand...

It wouldn't. At least not enough.

You can also realize this by pure logic. Death percentages have been hovering at 8-7% for a while. Now remember, that for a long time there now haven't been enough people tested. SO,, the ones tested initally were already hospital cases. Add to that, that we know by recent numbers that hospital cases, disarchged or dead, last more than a week.

Point is, while non-risk group people most likely WILL recover, loads of them still have to get hospitalized. That won't go away. In fact if we let this shit run wildly our hospitals will near guaranteed crash, because everyone arrives at once. Eldery patients or not.
 
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Define "serious underlying medical condition" cause asthma is on that list, and so is diabetes. Both are very common and easily controlled so not thought of as serious even though they technically are defined as such and they type of underlying condition they are talking about. I think a lot of people are being blinded by thier personal definition of serious illness as opposed to the scientific term they actually are using to not realize in actuality how many people are at risk. You know since we now can make up the definition of words to move goalposts in society to fit the emotional narrative as opposed to using facts to determine what the narrative should be
 
infinitys_7th said:
On the other hand, China has filthy air and lots of smoking too, so I'm sure some amount of pulmonary damage in young people is included in these stats.
Click to expand...
The stats were from Italy, but it kind of irrelevant, stating that most who died had an underlying medical condition is not that great news for a nation like the US where probably 50% of people have at least one medical condition.
 
I dont think many people are worried about them dying specifically.

Its more about collateral damage. Most people have elderly parents/loved ones that will be at far higher risk than they themselves. A lot of jobs are already gone or will be vanishing in the next few months so people are worried about not being able to support themselves or eating through what little savings they have. In a lot of countries we dont know how supplies of critical items will be maintained. Even people that could be saved might end up losing their lives because our hospital infrastructure just wont be able to cope and even provide basic amneties.

Is it the apocalypse? No.
Is it going to be really shitty for a long time? Yes.
 
Coronavirus Resource Center

How deadly is COVID-19?

The answer depends on whether you're looking at the fatality rate (the risk of death among those who are infected) or the total number of deaths. So far, influenza has caused far more deaths this flu season, both in the US and worldwide, than COVID-19. This is why you may have heard it said that the flu is a bigger threat.

Regarding the fatality rate, it appears that the risk of death with the pandemic coronavirus infection (commonly estimated at 3% to 4%) is less than it was for SARS (approximately 11%) and MERS (about 35%), but may be higher than the risk from seasonal flu (which averages about 0.1%).

What we do know so far is the risk of death very much depends on your age and your overall health. Children appear to be at very low risk of severe disease and death. Older adults and those with chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, or lung disease have a higher chance of developing complications like pneumonia, which could be deadly.

I'm not worried though since I know our great GOP leaders in the white house are going to take care of it with prayer, corporate bailouts, and insider trading.

Other ways besides prayer that kills the virus
 
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Hiding away elderly won't be as easy as it sounds because younger people need to be helping those elderly. Don't forget this spreads and you may not know you have it.

However I don't know if we should be shutting down everything for a whole month. My state is on lockdown and it's primary economy, gambling and tourism, is all closed for at least 30 days. We're fucked.
 
The bigger worry about Italy is that they have had the lockdown since March 9th (and earlier in some of the hot zones) and their cases keep growing along with deaths.

If Italy's lockdown doesn't work how long can they sustain it and what message is the rest of the world going to take from that.
 
cryptoadam said:
The bigger worry about Italy is that they have had the lockdown since March 9th (and earlier in some of the hot zones) and their cases keep growing along with deaths.

If Italy's lockdown doesn't work how long can they sustain it and what message is the rest of the world going to take from that.
Click to expand...
There is a lag between truly new infections and diagnosed cases. This is because symptoms take a few days to onset. Hubei had a 12-day delay. We should start seeing the effect by early next week.

In fact, this blog post is the perfect handbook that explains everything you need to know to judge where we are headed. Stop reading the news.
 
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