Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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Well, I mean sure, we need young people. But young brave men have volunteered to go into battle for the entire history of our civilization.

This idea we are scared little mice is a modern one. Historically, people are very willing to risk their lives if the cause is just. It wasn't too long ago that our youth were volunteering in droves to go fight Nazis. And our nation is founded on those who died fighting tyranny and for liberty.

When did we become so meek, where we have a youth scared and huddling in their basements playing vidja games instead of volunteering for ventilator factories to save their grandparents?

Now, I'm not even sure we are that meek. But we sure as hell act like we are. We exchange recipes for quarantinis instead of doing something to contribute.

I think it's a very different situation. Dying from coronavirus wont be an epic battle, it's not an active death, it's a slow and painful and a passive one, you're basically drowning in your own liquids.

We still have quite a lot of people working outside on lockdown (me included, although I don't live in the US), so lot's of people are willing to risk their lives, be it for a just cause or because they need the money...

The thing is, you can't expect the general public to risk their lives because the vacuum cleaner company owner "wants to make money", it's not perceived as essential. People don't want to feel disposable, they need purpose. There's no purpose in dying for superfluous things.

They'll only come outside when it calms down or when they desperately need to, and if jobs and government won't support that, you can expect them to go rampant.
 
I've already explained to you why this is nonsense, but you have ignored my post.
Furthermore, we already have pretty good data from events like the Diamond Princess. It is an isolated environment where we know everybody who was infected and wasn't infected. We know how many people required hospitalisation and how many required ICU. We also currently have a death rate of 1.5%, with 11 people STILL in ICU, and without any strain on the medical system. Even if the remaining people on ICU recover, 1.5% would be the death rate.

If 8 to 16 million people had been infected from Corona till now that would be 120,000 to 240,000 dead (in reality more because the health system would be overloaded, but you get the idea).

This is a great point which really points to 2 options.

1 - The virus is not as deadly as we think.
2 - We are still in the early stages of the spread.

(Could be a bit of both.)

I think that 2 may be more likely. I read that it can take 30 days to go from one person infected to 400.
However after 60 days that would have grown exponentially. After 90 days an even larger growth rate.

On February 26th Italy announced a total of 400 cases confrimed. 12 deaths.
Almost 4 weeks later they are about to hit 70,000 cases confirmed. 6,820 deaths.
If they had not locked things down two weeks ago I reckon they would be well on the way to at least 1 million cases.
Who knows how many lives they saved by shutting things down.

Now other countries are following on as the number of confirmed cases, critical cases and deaths rises.

The only problem I have here is, as you have pointed out, we are told that so many have mild symptoms or no symptoms implying that many many more people have caught it yet we do not see mortality rates in line with that.

In Europe at least the death toll is probably the most reliable figure since they have been able to confirm that patients had it and then passed away.

It's very difficult to know what to think as media tends to sensationalize these things but with so many countries shutting down you have to think that these governments, and the experts advising them, are very concerned.
 
Case count up again too, at least still down from last week, but again unclear if we hit a peak or just a bump in the road.

That's not a bump. If Italy didn't stop testing, than in this timeline that's clearly the beginning of a peak or even decline during the next 5-7 days.
Death count says nothing right now, because the number of active cases is naturally climbing day by day. This number will start to decline when active cases start to decline, which will be the case when the daily recovered cases > daily new cases.
 
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So 5 months ago the wider world didn't know about Covid-19 but yet we were suppose to be able to prepare for it? You see the problem with this don't you?

Until there is an outbreak there is no way to prepare for it because how do you prepare for something that you have never seen before?

Everything you base your prep on could be thrown out of the window just based on what type of infection it is alone and that is even before you consider the different type of infections there are, Covid is a viral infection but what a bacterial infection or a fungal infection which are all completely different and could be transmitted in different ways and have a different affect on us.

The only preparedness a Country can take is quarantine protocols that either hit it with a hammer and lock people up in their homes so it runs out of hosts, like what is happening now is most affected Countries or let it burn through the populace until it mutates enough to become asymptomatic like the spanish flu, Ebola and black death did.

A vaccine is 12-24 months away at the earliest so I'm not holding my breath for that anytime soon.

It also doesn't help that the first few months of the outbreak were lost due to the CCP actions. They weren't honest with the international community if we had been told about this sooner Countries could have taken more appropriate measures and maybe just maybe stopped this dead in its tracks. Instead we were fed a false narrative that it was just a bad flu bro and people aren't dying and we are certain there is no human to human transmission.

Basically you can't prepare for stuff like this because there are way too many variables involved. The only thing a Government can prep is its response and quarantine protocols.
This is the third global outbreak of a coronavirus that attacks the lower respiratory tract this millennium, and airborne or partially airborne viruses are the only ones contagious enough to require this kind of response. China actually was to some extent prepared for this, as was Taiwan and a few other Asian countries, because SARS was a very serious thing for them and they wanted to react better the next time something like that happened.

Preparing means you have plans in place, not making them up on the spot like governments are now. Sure, there could've been other viruses to threaten a pandemic, in fact there were (Ebola, Zika, H1N1 etc.), and there will be others in the future, but this type of outbreak (highly infectious respiratory distress virus) is one that many people have been warning us about for a decade and a half, with the message being it was a matter of when, not if. What could we have done to prepare? How about having plans in place for how to rapidly scale up diagnostics (the virus tests being used right now are based on generic methods), also including taking people's temperature and case / contact tracking and targeted information like SK is doing. Furthermore, there should've been plans in place for how to meet the PPE needs, both for health care workers and the public. Plans for how to coordinate a nation wide response as well, for example deployment of temporary hospitals.

Saying we couldn't have prepared is like saying the military can't prepare because they don't know when and where they'd be fighting. You plan for different outcomes, and you certainly plan for one of, if not the most likely outcome. Instead we had months of zero checks at airports, unenforced self-isolation, complete lack of testing resources, and in general a response that was improvised on the spot.
 
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Cuomo wasn't the first to do a shutdown. Also Trump didn't tell anyone to take medicines, he said that he wanted to fast track a drug that showed promise. The same drug that Cuomo is being praised for in NY.





Multiple articles about Hydrochrolonique before Trump talked about it.

And Trump hasn't forced anyone back to work, he is going to do what he has done this whole time and deffer to states. Him talking about getting people back to work actually makes sense because its putting heat on the governors of each state. Ya Cuomo saying the Feds are going to have to mail everyone checks for the next 9 months is not feasible.

If SK/Japan/HK/Taiwan and to a lesser extent China can get back to life then there is no reason the US has to turn into Mad Max. For sure 15 days is not enough and a place like NY may take long than Alaska or Wyoming, but Trump giving a 15 stretch goal should light a fire under those states without many cases to put things in place now so that in 2 weeks the problem can be under control and they don't become NY or Washington.

But in the end Trump isn't going to force people to work, there is no way he can actually do that. And I doubt he is going to interfere with state governors and force them to send people back to work. But governors also can't start expecting to end society for 18 months and that somehow money and food is going to magically appear for every American.

Were going to have to adapt. People in China walk around with masks, scan their phones wherever they go, remain vigilant, and deal with maybe one day getting sick and dying. Thats going to be the reality of life until we get a cure. Manage the case numbers as much as possible to prevent further pandemics.

Nice. You're back!
 
This is a great point which really points to 2 options.

1 - The virus is not as deadly as we think.
2 - We are still in the early stages of the spread.

(Could be a bit of both.)

I think that 2 may be more likely. I read that it can take 30 days to go from one person infected to 400.
However after 60 days that would have grown exponentially. After 90 days an even larger growth rate.

On February 26th Italy announced a total of 400 cases confrimed. 12 deaths.
Almost 4 weeks later they are about to hit 70,000 cases confirmed. 6,820 deaths.
If they had not locked things down two weeks ago I reckon they would be well on the way to at least 1 million cases.
Who knows how many lives they saved by shutting things down.

Now other countries are following on as the number of confirmed cases, critical cases and deaths rises.

The only problem I have here is, as you have pointed out, we are told that so many have mild symptoms or no symptoms implying that many many more people have caught it yet we do not see mortality rates in line with that.

In Europe at least the death toll is probably the most reliable figure since they have been able to confirm that patients had it and then passed away.

It's very difficult to know what to think as media tends to sensationalize these things but with so many countries shutting down you have to think that these governments, and the experts advising them, are very concerned.
Personally, I think the overall death rate is 1 to 2%, assuming everybody who needs it gets the best care, and skewing to older demographics, going by data like the Diamond Princess.
The major problem is health systems will be overloaded FAST leading to much higher death rates (5 to 10%). This is why lockdowns and such are very important early on before it spreads beyond control.
 
The thing is, you can't expect the general public to risk their lives because the vacuum cleaner company owner "wants to make money", it's not perceived as essential. People don't want to feel disposable, they need purpose. There's no purpose in dying for superfluous things.

They'll only come outside when it calms down or when they desperately need to, and if jobs and government won't support that, you can expect them to go rampant.

You are making up your own narrative. Plenty of people obviously disagree with you. Plenty of people are partying. Plenty of doctors, nurses, truckers, and factory workers are busting their asses. Clearly not everyone is scared to go outside.

You can't just make the claim nobody wants the greedy vacuum cleaner guy to stay in business. I do. I do because i want him to keep his company open. I want his employees to keep getting checks. I want them to keep buying food.

You are acting as if our economy is compartmentalized. It is not. It is an ecosystem.
You are acting as if people are so scared they won't leave their houses. Again, sure, some. But many are heroes. And many are just listening to whatever the current guidelines are. But this doesn't mean they wouldn't go volunteer at a testing center if asked, or go back to work building vacuums if asked, or even convert the vacuum filters into masks and the vacuums into ventilators if asked.

This idea that companies trying to stay open is 'greedy' is perhaps the most poisonous idea being spread. We need our economy to function, too. This doesn't mean everybody goes back to work in cramped conditions to build useless junk today, but it does mean we need to follow expert advice and try to keep everything functioning as best possible and people back to work the second it is safe with best practices in place.

People across countless industries and social services risk their neck every day to keep our world running, from police officers to underwater electricians and construction workers. Yes, we are in a time of elevated risk. Yes, we need to be safe and smart. But this idea people are too scared to do anything is a sad take on our times. I absolutely disagree - ask people to stand up and be heroes and people will. And one goal we need to share is not to let the economy collapse, no matter what the collapsitarian socialists think.
 
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Italy's new positive cases:
+4821 21/03
+3957 22/03
+3780 23/03
+3.612 24/03
Actually, I'm wrong:
Italian media are reporting the change in active cases (a lower number) rather than the change in total cases (a higher number), representing it as "newly infected" when, in fact, it represents the "change in active cases." Newly infected, meaning the number of people who have tested positive to the virus in the last day, is the number shown on the table above, which corresponds to the change in total cases in accordance with the international standards set by the WHO and followed by all countries. The change in active cases (what Italian media label as "newly infected") is the result of the following formula: (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries). All data, including total cases ("casi totali") is available on Italy's Dipartimento della Protezione Civile official repository

My God, italian's media sucks.
 

Duggan said he traveled out of state and went on vacation the week of March 6 and returned to work on Monday, March 16. When he returned that day he wasn't feeling well. On the 17th, he took a sick day but returned to work on Wednesday, March 18th. The next day he was out sick again and by Saturday he was admitted to an ICU for suspected bronchitis.

According to Duggan, he was tested for coronavirus but it was not confirmed until after he had died. Duggan said it often takes a long time to confirm a coronavirus case due to the lack of available testing.
 
Trump HAS done a horrible job since this entire thing started. Insane to me that people can watch him lie and ramble everyday and not give zero fucks about the American people yet people still lap up everything he says.
Can you please shut the fuck up saying things like this with zero evidence
Medical ships are being sent out to specifically avoid the overcrowded hospital issue places like Italy and Spain are facing, and that matters a lot with the death rate. That's a pretty smart and hopefully effective move. The less lives lost to this, the better.
I'm not going to say Trump handled this situation ideally, but to be honest this is way too early to tell if a good or bad job has been done.
 
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Uh, guys? America is now in 3rd place.

Ik8WYTx.png
 
I've already explained to you why this is nonsense, but you have ignored my post.
Furthermore, we already have pretty good data from events like the Diamond Princess. It is an isolated environment where we know everybody who was infected and wasn't infected. We know how many people required hospitalisation and how many required ICU. We also currently have a death rate of 1.5%, with 11 people STILL in ICU, and without any strain on the medical system. Even if the remaining people on ICU recover, 1.5% would be the death rate. If 8 to 16 million people had been infected from Corona till now that would be 120,000 to 240,000 dead (in reality more because the health system would be overloaded, but you get the idea).

But if you think 8 to 16 million people are infected RIGHT NOW, why are we only sitting at about 18K deaths? Do you think 100-200K people are going to die in the next week or two? I am saying I hope 8 to 16 million have already been infected because clearly 200K people are not going to die in the next week. So if 16 million people are infected as of today, in 2 weeks from now 15.8-15.9 of them will recover. The worse the number of infected today is actually better. Unless you expect deaths to go up by a factor of 10 starting tomorrow?

As far as the DP how many were in hospital and what were their ages if we know that info. they had 10 deaths on the ship of 3711 people. 15 in serious condition but I don't know what that means according to worldometer. So how many did end up on ICU and whats the demo break down as I would love to see that info. DP managed to keep 80% of the boats population from being infected and only .27% ended up dying. 82% of the cases have recovered which is about a I think 6 weeks. So its a bit of a long time for recovery so we should expect it to take a couple of weeks once lockdowns are in effect.
 
Everyone fellating Cuomo yet his state is on fire and might become Italy number 2. Half the cases are because of Cuomos state.

Its dissonance to somehow say Cuomo is doing great but Trump is doing horrible when most of Trumps horrible is coming out of New York.

Cuomo is just getting his story straight so when it goes to shit he can basically blame Trump even though whatever he asks for Trump provides.

But ya when NY is Italy is V2 everyone will day Cuomo did a great job but Trump did a horrible job.

To be fair, Cuomo doing a shit job or not doesn't change the fact that Trump is doing a shit job. I wonder how well the U.S. would be handling this if Trump didn't eliminate the pandemic response team two years ago?
 
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Trump HAS done a horrible job since this entire thing started. Insane to me that people can watch him lie and ramble everyday and not give zero fucks about the American people yet people still lap up everything he says.

Objectively, though, and especially in comparison to the reactions from most countries on the planet, that's not really true. I didn't vote for Trump. I really didn't like the guy, but I just don't see how he's doing a particularly bad job at this given the nature of our country.
 
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Actually, I'm wrong:
Italian media are reporting the change in active cases (a lower number) rather than the change in total cases (a higher number), representing it as "newly infected" when, in fact, it represents the "change in active cases." Newly infected, meaning the number of people who have tested positive to the virus in the last day, is the number shown on the table above, which corresponds to the change in total cases in accordance with the international standards set by the WHO and followed by all countries. The change in active cases (what Italian media label as "newly infected") is the result of the following formula: (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries). All data, including total cases ("casi totali") is available on Italy's Dipartimento della Protezione Civile official repository

My God, italian's media sucks.

Thank you.. I was adding up the different numbers from each region and getting the same numbers based on pure cases.

Not a huge change, but I guess its best to have clear reporting.
 
You are making up your own narrative. Plenty of people obviously disagree with you. Plenty of people are partying. Plenty of doctors, nurses, truckers, and factory workers are busting their asses. Clearly not everyone is scared to go outside.

You can't just make the claim nobody wants the greedy vacuum cleaner guy to stay in business. I do. I do because i want him to keep his company open. I want his employees to keep getting checks. I want them to keep buying food.

You are acting as if our economy is compartmentalized. It is not. It is an ecosystem.
You are acting as if people are so scared they won't leave their houses. Again, sure, some. But many are heroes. And many are just listening to whatever the current guidelines are. But this doesn't mean they wouldn't go volunteer at a testing center if asked, or go back to work building vacuums if asked, or even convert the vacuum filters into masks and the vacuums into ventilators if asked.

This idea that companies trying to stay open is 'greedy' is perhaps the most poisonous idea being spread. We need our economy to function, too. This doesn't mean everybody goes back to work in cramped conditions to build useless junk today, but it does mean we need to follow expert advice and try to keep everything functioning as best possible and people back to work the second it is safe with best practices in place.

People across countless industries and social services risk their neck every day to keep our world running, from police officers to underwater electricians and construction workers. Yes, we are in a time of elevated risk. Yes, we need to be safe and smart. But this idea people are too scared to do anything is a sad take on our times. I absolutely disagree - ask people to stand up and be heroes and people will. And one goal we need to share is not to let the economy collapse, no matter what the collapsitarian socialists think.

But here's the thing, I agree with you. I'm just saying that if government can't keep the balance and is perceived as the culprit of thousands of deaths, then things will get complicated. I'm not saying people shouldn't get back to work, I'm saying we're in a situation where we don't know when the right time is, and the investors and owners desperately pushing the economy in front of lives will be perceived in a negative way because, to people, their lives are much more important than superfluous things.

Would you risk your life flipping burgers for minimal wage had you not to? I don't think many would.
 
To be fair, Cuomo doing a shit job or not doesn't change the fact that Trump is doing a shit job. I wonder how well the U.S. would be handling this if Trump didn't eliminate the pandemic response team two years ago?

No one is doing a "good job". What the hell is a good job, anyway?
 
I think it's a very different situation. Dying from coronavirus wont be an epic battle, it's not an active death, it's a slow and painful and a passive one, you're basically drowning in your own liquids.

We still have quite a lot of people working outside on lockdown (me included, although I don't live in the US), so lot's of people are willing to risk their lives, be it for a just cause or because they need the money...

The thing is, you can't expect the general public to risk their lives because the vacuum cleaner company owner "wants to make money", it's not perceived as essential. People don't want to feel disposable, they need purpose. There's no purpose in dying for superfluous things.

They'll only come outside when it calms down or when they desperately need to, and if jobs and government won't support that, you can expect them to go rampant.

It's not just as simple as that mate.

I don't want my parents to die from this.
Obviously I do not want to die from this.

However, I also do not want the vacuum cleaner company owner and his employees to lose their jobs either.
The US suicide rate is 13 per 100,000 people and I wouldn't want to see that rise.

It was always a fragile system and something like this doesn't really come with a good outcome no matter what we try to do.

Many people DO risk their health and their lives for not great wages every day.
What happens to them while all of this trundles on?
 
No one is doing a "good job". What the hell is a good job, anyway?

That was my point really, reading back on the quote it doesnt come across too clear. Right across the board there are blatant fuckups from beginning to end. Some fuckups can be perceived as an "in hindsight" situation, others are blatant idiocy.
 
But if you think 8 to 16 million people are infected RIGHT NOW, why are we only sitting at about 18K deaths? Do you think 100-200K people are going to die in the next week or two? I am saying I hope 8 to 16 million have already been infected because clearly 200K people are not going to die in the next week. So if 16 million people are infected as of today, in 2 weeks from now 15.8-15.9 of them will recover. The worse the number of infected today is actually better. Unless you expect deaths to go up by a factor of 10 starting tomorrow?

As far as the DP how many were in hospital and what were their ages if we know that info. they had 10 deaths on the ship of 3711 people. 15 in serious condition but I don't know what that means according to worldometer. So how many did end up on ICU and whats the demo break down as I would love to see that info. DP managed to keep 80% of the boats population from being infected and only .27% ended up dying. 82% of the cases have recovered which is about a I think 6 weeks. So its a bit of a long time for recovery so we should expect it to take a couple of weeks once lockdowns are in effect.
Because 8 to 16 million people AREN'T infected right now. That is why we are at 18k deaths. That is what I am saying, that we are not at millions of infections.
You are comparing it to the numbers that get the flu. Millions of people each month. What you are misunderstanding, is that there are already millions of people with the flu all the time. It doesn't go from 0 flu infections in October, to millions in a month. It goes from millions, to millions more. We talk about the flu season, but the flu season is when infections PEAK, not when the flu starts spreading. Corona didn't start from millions of infections in January (or where ever else you want to track it from), which is why it doesn't make any sense to say it should be at 8 to 16 million infections now.
 
Here we go: back to "normal" by Easter.


A White House official says the president does not view Easter, as a date that he begins opening things up, but a date by which the economy is speeding again. That means the loosening of restrictions would, under this scenario, could start much sooner.
 
I honestly think that after this final push of quarantine time, people are going to have to emerge and just learn to live in the new world. The new planet requires new rules.

Gear up
Isolate
Wash
Disinfect when you get home

The general public will need to acquire masks, gear, disinfectants etc.

I don't see how people stay in the caves for months.
 
I honestly think that after this final push of quarantine time, people are going to have to emerge and just learn to live in the new world. The new planet requires new rules.

Gear up
Isolate
Wash
Disinfect when you get home

The general public will need to acquire masks, gear, disinfectants etc.

I don't see how people stay in the caves for months.
Sounds based.

Maybe we can all start larping as Astronauts or Stormtroopers too.

No one allowed to greet each other without wearing a full body uniform.

Mtiw3HP.jpg
 

The national shortage of N95 respirator masks can be traced back to 2009 after the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, when the Obama administration was advised to replenish a national stockpile but did not, according to reports from Bloomberg News and the Los Angeles Times.
 
I think there are a lot of ways businesses can adapt to the new normal. but I am not sure we'll see things "speeding" again until we're back to the old normal.
Even if businesses could adapt, it wouldn't be happening in two weeks time lol.
Things are going to get worse before they get better.
Things will get better though.
 
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We keep seeing these, and it usually ends up that they were heavy smokers or fat.

They leave those out to spread fear to young people.


The problem is a lot of overweight people (i am also overweight) have diagnosed heart conditions, because of all the weight they carry around as well. They just don't know to see a cardiologist. I see my cardiologist every year because CHF runs in my family. luckily I don't have it but I still like to get checked up/
 
Thats the issue with the US constitution, its still cowboy land, it made americans arrogant and thinking they are above everyone else, this will be a reality check.

This is the only option that has worked so far, Japan, South Korea and Germany are doing it and are fairing very very well. The US in the other hand has the steep curve upwards that no other country has, they arent flatening that curve one bit, its a free fall.

You're full of shit. Japan isn't forcing testing on anyone. In fact, they have restricted the freedoms of their population less than just about anyone. Definitely less than many states in America.
 
He didnt eliminate the pandemic response team. But thanks for spreading fake news.

The Trump administration got rid of the "executive branch team responsible for coordinating a response to a pandemic" and failed to replace the people. This along with cdc budget cuts effectively eliminated the pandemic response team.
 
To be fair, Cuomo doing a shit job or not doesn't change the fact that Trump is doing a shit job. I wonder how well the U.S. would be handling this if Trump didn't eliminate the pandemic response team two years ago?

I think that could be a true statement if you believe Trump is doing a shit job. But you can't say Trump is doing shit and Cuomo is doing great when NYC is one of the main drivers of Trump doing "shit".

And no he didn't eliminate the pandemic response team 2 years ago.
 
I think that could be a true statement if you believe Trump is doing a shit job. But you can't say Trump is doing shit and Cuomo is doing great when NYC is one of the main drivers of Trump doing "shit".

And no he didn't eliminate the pandemic response team 2 years ago.

I dont think Cuomo is doing an good job at all. Dude shit the bed, but really every country has shit the bed. Infectious disease specialists have been talking about this situation happening for years now. Specifically with a corona virus.
 
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