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[Strife In a Teacup]

I was just surmising the other day that I could see another Ruby Ridge/Waco scenario playing out during this, and then this:

DNyuz - Latest Breaking U.S. News

Latest Breaking News, U.S. and World Politics, Crime, Business, Science, Technology, Autos, Entertainment, Culture, Movie, Music, Sports.

dnyuz.com

 

[Teslerum]

What the fuck is wrong with people?

Reminder that Siobhan Thompson is a comedy writer who moved to the US long before Brexit was a thing.

-Still wants a person to die shes not personally influenced by.

 

[holygeesus]

The mask turnaround is almost complete. It is being made mandatory to wear them in some parts of Paris now, despite recent claims by authorities there, that wearing a mask was 'useless'.

 

[eot]

The importance put on sports never ceases to amaze me

 

[betrayal]

You will find that while the percentage of new infections goes down, the percentage of positive tests/all tests goes up. Because testing is the limiting factor. It went from 10 % positive tests all the way to 25 % in Lombardy while doubling rates went down.

That's only half the truth. Testing is more focused on the areas where there is an obvious high number and increase in cases. The best example of this are epicenters, such as Lombardy. This does not even necessarily require testing, as this can be concluded solely from the number of hospital admissions, cases of pneumonia, etc. and then you just start with intensified testing. The more focused testing then results in a higher positive test rate.

The only meaningful metric is absolute daily new infections. That number tells you how many more infections you can expect. And that number in the US seems to be around 35k per day right now. Which is around 5 times higher than it has been at the peak of any other country. And the US hasn't peaked yet.

That also depends on where the testing takes place. If the US suddenly stopped testing in New York and instead focused on rural areas, we would suddenly have extremely low case numbers. So either way, you have to see everything in context.
But it is of course true that the peak in the US may have been caused by only the maximum test capacity. But that's why you wait a week or even two to see how it develops. If the numbers remain constant, then the test capacities are actually the limiting factor. Currently, the US is actually 4-5 days too early with the peak when compared to all countries before, which also suggests that the test capacities are the reason for the peak. However, it is more than certain that the US is going through a very similar development as all other European countries. In other words, in the end everything will be all right.

 

[Coolwhhip]

The importance put on sports never ceases to amaze me

 

[Alx]

The mask turnaround is almost complete. It is being made mandatory to wear them in some parts of Paris now, despite recent claims by authorities there, that wearing a mask was 'useless'.

I haven't seen any announcement about masks being mandatory in some places in France. The last info I've read/heard was the suggestion that people wear "non medical ones", but it's not mandatory.
I think the "useless" part was either deceptive or wrongly perceived, it was clear from the beginning that they wanted to keep the masks for people who needed it most, so health personel, and people with symptoms and their relatives. Having anybody wear them when there's a shortage could be said "inefficient" more than "useless".

 

[betrayal]

The mask turnaround is almost complete. It is being made mandatory to wear them in some parts of Paris now, despite recent claims by authorities there, that wearing a mask was 'useless'.

It had been clear for weeks that this was going to happen. Especially homemade masks do not always protect you in every single case, but they help a lot to prevent the virus from spreading.
Such studies like the one linked above are of little help, as they only deal with the question whether viruses get through or not. So either 100% protection or 0%, nothing in between.
Masks, especially homemade ones, a scarf or a simple piece of cloth, are somewhere between 0% and 100% protection and this has a very strong effect on the result if you want to prevent the spread of the virus. This cannot be stressed enough.

 

[holygeesus]

I haven't seen any announcement about masks being mandatory in some places in France. The last info I've read/heard was the suggestion that people wear "non medical ones", but it's not mandatory.
I think the "useless" part was either deceptive or wrongly perceived, it was clear from the beginning that they wanted to keep the masks for people who needed it most, so health personel, and people with symptoms and their relatives. Having anybody wear them when there's a shortage could be said "inefficient" more than "useless".

I was reading about it in the Guardian. My mistake though, it says French cities not Paris in particular.

Officials in a number of French cities and towns have announced they plan to make face masks mandatory for locals when they leave home in an effort to prevent the coronavirus spreading, Kim Willsher, the Guardian's Paris correspondent, reports.

The first is Nice, in the south, where the centre-right mayor Christian Estrosi said all inhabitants will be sent a mask within the next eight to 10 days that they can reuse for a month. He promised to give further information on Wednesday.

Several other mayors have said they will follow suit, including neighbouring Cannes on the French Riviera. In Paris, the Socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo told France Info radio she was ready to "go in the same direction".

"Everybody should have some kind of protection," Hidalgo said.

A man wearing a protective face mask walks in Paris, where the mayor, Anne Hidalgo, has indicated she will soon make masks mandatory for people out in public. Photograph: Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters
The move to make masks mandatory, led by local authorities, follows a complete shift in public policy and advice. Until last Friday, the French government and national health officials had repeatedly insisted wearing a mask was "useless" and that the scarce supply of masks available were to be saved for health and frontline workers. Pharmacies were ordered to stop selling masks unless customers had a "medical prescription".

"Masks are not necessary if you're not ill," government spokesperson Sibeth Ndiaye said.

However, last week, president Emmanuel Macron announced France was launching large-scale production of "alternative" masks made of material, for non-medical workers.

On Friday, Jérôme Salomon, the head of France's health authority, echoed the changing advice, saying: "We encourage the general public, if they so wish … to wear these alternative masks that are being produced."

 

[nush]

China: Stop being racist to Chinese people, stop calling it Wuhan virus, stop saying it's a Chinese virus, you hurt the feeling of Chinese people!

Also China: ALL Africans are to have mandatory COV19 testing, even if you've never even left China since the outbreak and we have given you a QR code to prove it

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/U0thvVfRlntavv1xyoU6eQ <----Goes to Chinese based website for expats

Screencaps in case you don't want to click on a Chinese weblink.

 

[PrellboGark]

For those that are interested, the rate of growth in the USA has dropped below 10% for two days straight. The 5 day average is about 12%. This is roughly a third of the growth rate that we saw about a month ago. A month ago we saw a doubling rate of 2-3 days. Today we are looking at a doubling rate of 7-8 days.

This is really great news. It is real signs of this virus eventually plateauing in the US.

I can post graphs later if anyone is interested.

How widespread is testing in the US by now? Like, if you sit in Idaho somewhere and have a sore throat, can you get a test quickly?
The thing I fear most is that after New York starts to flatten many other areas in the US start to see surges.
Considering that some still don't have a stay at home order...

 

[darkestdame]

How widespread is testing in the US by now? Like, if you sit in Idaho somewhere and have a sore throat, can you get a test quickly?
The thing I fear most is that after New York starts to flatten many other areas in the US start to see surges.
Considering that some still don't have a stay at home order...

No they've peaked at amounts of tests for a while now, you'll still get turned away unless your near death in NYC.

 

[Birdo]

A 40 minute post gap in here?

I'll take that as a good sign.

 

[PrellboGark]

No they've peaked at amounts of tests for a while now, you'll still get turned away unless your near death in NYC.

Why in the fuck?
What is the US' plan?

Like, even if you successfully flatten the curve, the crisis isn't over. After having flattened the curve you will have to go back to contact tracing and all that stuff in order to prevent more outbreaks. Fuck up contact tracing once and you have another outbreak. That will be the situation until a vaccine is available.
During that time you can reopen society in parts, but only if you have widespread testing available. Like, so widespread that every American can get tested within a day or two.

Germany is currently still pushing its testing capacities aiming for half a million tests a day. (About a week ago they were at half a million tests a week) Because that's a requirement if you want to reopen society without risking further waves of outbreaks.

 

[CasperDarling]

How widespread is testing in the US by now? Like, if you sit in Idaho somewhere and have a sore throat, can you get a test quickly?
The thing I fear most is that after New York starts to flatten many other areas in the US start to see surges.
Considering that some still don't have a stay at home order...

Testing is not wide spread at all which means any signs of improvement need to be taken with biggest grain of salt imaginable. This goes for the entire world not just the US

 

[Liljagare]

Swedens pandemologist in charge doesn't know why Norway/Denmark/Finland hasn't had as many dead as Sweden.

I could wager a bet on that some of their quarantine has helped, whilst we still remain at strong recommendations. :} Perhaps also closing the schools has helped them, who knows?

The only thing that is banned here are gatherings over 50 and service at a bar. Everything else remains at "strongly recommended". I don't think they get it, people are more likely to follow something that is banned by law, over a "strong recommendation against".


Over a hundred dead since yesterday, 71 before that, it's taking off this week.

 

[Alebrije]

Why in the fuck?
What is the US' plan?

Like, even if you successfully flatten the curve, the crisis isn't over. After having flattened the curve you will have to go back to contact tracing and all that stuff in order to prevent more outbreaks. Fuck up contact tracing once and you have another outbreak. That will be the situation until a vaccine is available.
During that time you can reopen society in parts, but only if you have widespread testing available. Like, so widespread that every American can get tested within a day or two.

Germany is currently still pushing its testing capacities aiming for half a million tests a day. (About a week ago they were at half a million tests a week) Because that's a requirement if you want to reopen society without risking further waves of outbreaks.

Honestly there is no way of a 100% lockdown, Germany and other countries will receive people from outside due to tourism and business. Chinas has now the second wave due to people from other countries bringing the virus.

It seems the only choice at this moment is to control the virus so your health system does not collapses , I think after the first wave most cointries will be prepared to the next ones that also would be less dangerous.

So yes without a vaccine this is the only strategy that will work and unless someone develops a threatment that works people will still die on every wave.

 

[ManaByte]

Honestly there is no way of a 100% lockdown, Germany and other countries will receive people from outside due to tourism and business. Chinas has now the second wave due to people from other countries bringing the virus.

It seems the only choice at this moment is to control the virus so your health system does not collapses , I think after the first wave most cointries will be prepared to the next ones that also would be less dangerous.

So yes without a vaccine this is the only strategy that will work unless someone develops a threatment that works people will still die on every wave....

Exactly. It's about mitigation now. Even WITH a vaccine there will still be people dying from this. Even with a flu vaccine, we get more than 30,000 deaths a year in the US from it.

 

[Chaplain]

"Reflection seeing patients with Covid-19 on a nightshift in the Emergency Department." (4/7/2020)

 

[PrellboGark]

I think they have no idea what they are talking about.

 

[MichaelRR1989]

This can't be real.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

UK death record



NY death record



Hopefully this is the death peaking.

 

[eot]

If you die at home from the coronavirus, there's a good chance you won't be included in the official death toll, because of a discrepancy in New York City's reporting process.

The problem means the city's official death count is likely far lower than the real toll taken by the virus, according to public health officials.

It also means that victims without access to testing are not being counted, and even epidemiologists are left without a full understanding of the pandemic.

As of Monday afternoon, 2,738 New York City residents have died from 'confirmed' cases of COVID-19, according to the city Department of Health. That's an average of 245 a day since the previous Monday.

But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner's office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed.

The FDNY says it responded to 2,192 cases of deaths at home between March 20th and April 5th, or about 130 a day, an almost 400 percent increase from the same time period last year. (In 2019, there were just 453 cardiac arrest calls where a patient died, according to the FDNY.)

That number has been steadily increasing since March 30th, with 241 New Yorkers dying at home Sunday — more than the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths that occurred citywide that day. On Monday night, the city reported 266 new deaths, suggesting the possibility of a 40% undercount of coronavirus-related deaths.

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities

Deaths at home hit record numbers, but they’re not all counted in the official coronavirus toll.

gothamist.com

 

[Loki]

Question for anyone who has loved ones with COVID in the hospitals right now (especially in NY/NJ): how are you staying apprised of their status? Has the hospital called you periodically or when there is a change in their status? Obviously visitation is impossible, so I'm wondering. Thanks.

 

[darkestdame]

I think they have no idea what they are talking about.

They're desperate for this to be over so they can get their stonks back in action

 

[Alx]

This can't be real.

The drone thing has become common in most European countries, it's been used in Italy, Spain, France... it's actually an effective way to cover large areas. Quite cool too, even if it looks dystopian. Hopefully it will stay exclusive to specific situations though.

 

[cryptoadam]

I think they have no idea what they are talking about.

Not really. US numbers are trending down. If trends continue they have passed the peak of exponential growth. Deaths always lag behind so expect those numbers to stay up, but it looks like the US may be in its plateau phase. This will add a lot of cases over the next 2 weeks, but the increase will be lower each day and should start to taper off and then it depends how fast the decline is.

But this is only based on the trends continuing and no New Yorks break out in other states.

 

[hariseldon]

UK death record



NY death record



Hopefully this is the death peaking.

The UK records fewer over the weekend - they tend to roll over into the Monday for admin reasons.

 

[nush]

Shit like this getting a round of applause.

Fuck off Jemsox, you're only doing this because there's more profit in facemasks right now rather than socks now that most likely all your retail partner locations have probably been closed as non essential. How fucking tone deaf must you be to show the actual Chinese production line, and while we are at it and you're getting pats on the back. How about giving those workers decent quality masks they are making rather than those shitty blue ones? Looks like you've got enough to spare right there.

You're not a hero, your an ambulance chaser.

 

[hariseldon]

nush does it matter? In some ways it shows the advantage of capitalism, that businesses will pivot to where the demand is. In this case that serves the good of society by providing a product that we need right now. Maybe it doesn't deserve a clap as it's not altruism in action, but it's a good outcome from someone's self-interest which I'm ok with. They need to move production out of China though.

 

[Mohonky]

"Reflection seeing patients with Covid-19 on a nightshift in the Emergency Department." (4/7/2020)

I'm so glad I'm not at a hospital, but in a nursing environment, if we get Covid19 at work all the residents are high risk. If anyones family members get Covid at home, we're getting tested and if we come back negative we have to stay at work in makeshift living quarters so we aren't exposed at home and bring it in. I really hope that doesn't happen and we don't get it at work or it's going to be a total shit show. So far, our infection control is holding thankfully and we have reasonable supplies. But the past few weeks now we've been prepping, educating and doing everything we can to ensure if the worst case scenario hits, we are equipped to lock everything down. We're already taking increased steps to prevent cross-contamination between wards and residents.

 

[marcyf]

Isn't it odd that a couple of weeks our governments said not to wear masks, that they were unsafe for those who didn't know how to use them, and now we hear the opposite. Why not be honest in the first place. Trust is the recommendations is the only thing that will keep us all on the same page.

 

[marcyf]

nush does it matter? In some ways it shows the advantage of capitalism, that businesses will pivot to where the demand is. In this case that serves the good of society by providing a product that we need right now. Maybe it doesn't deserve a clap as it's not altruism in action, but it's a good outcome from someone's self-interest which I'm ok with. They need to move production out of China though.

Agreed on both counts. My friend has a factory in China producing masks. First thing China did back in January was seize control of his factory, take control of all his inventory and force him to sell all masks to China. That's a problem. Then again, not hugely different from what Trump has done to 3M.

 

[Mohonky]

Isn't it odd that a couple of weeks our governments said not to wear masks, that they were unsafe for those who didn't know how to use them, and now we hear the opposite. Why not be honest in the first place. Trust is the recommendations is the only thing that will keep us all on the same page.

It's largely because they don't want people hoarding emergency supplies that are going to be in high demand in a clinical setting and also because for the majority of people it will be used incorrectly and provide a false sense of security that could put them at greater risk of exposur.

 

[nush]

Maybe it doesn't deserve a clap as it's not altruism in action

That was the entire point of my post.

 

[Halo is Back]

Can we all agree on fuck the Chinese government?

 

[marcyf]

It's largely because they don't want people hoarding emergency supplies that are going to be in high demand in a clinical setting and also because for the majority of people it will be used incorrectly and provide a false sense of security that could put them at greater risk of exposur.

Understand completely. Then explain to people the need not to hoard, alternatives (home made face coverings), and the need to self-isolate in the interim. Perhaps, explaining the benefit of masks would also have allowed some of our essential service workers in grocery stores, pahramcies and gas stations, to have gotten supplies and worn them earlier.

 

[hariseldon]

That was the entire point of my post.

And I simply wanted to point out that whatever the motives, the end result is still good.

 

[Birdo]

They should make different colored masks so everyone looks like Mortal Kombat characters.

 

[Jooxed]

They should make different colored masks so everyone looks like Mortal Kombat characters.

Anyone who doesn't choose the green one is a pleb.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

PA death record

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Italy update:



Deaths +604
Cases +3039

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Interesting video from Tucker yesterday:



He makes a good point about how the "stay home, except to buy food" directive that has everyone going to supermarkets all the time doesn't really make a lot of sense if the goal is to get the results of a proper quarantine, especially considering just how contagious this thing is and how it can remain on surfaces and spread simply by talking to someone within 2 meters.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Wuhan open and free* at last!

*Chinese free

 

[Armorian]

Wuhan open and free* at last!

*Chinese free

 

[synchronicity]

A 40 minute post gap in here?

I'll take that as a good sign.

Or we're just becoming numb and indifferent to the carnage.

 

[Jooxed]

Wuhan open and free* at last!

*Chinese free

Tomorrow *Second Wave of Virus begins*

 

[Mohonky]

Understand completely. Then explain to people the need not to hoard, alternatives (home made face coverings), and the need to self-isolate in the interim. Perhaps, explaining the benefit of masks would also have allowed some of our essential service workers in grocery stores, pahramcies and gas stations, to have gotten supplies and worn them earlier.

That's the thing, look at people using home made face coverings.....they are basically droplet magnets.

The thing with face masks is that they need to be totally sealed; if you are wearing one, you should see the mask move with inhaling and exhaling; so it needs to be the appropriate fit and if you have facial hair, then it's not going to be able to do it's job. Once used it's also an exposure hazard, it needs to be removed correctly and disposed of correctly. Again, things most people don't do correctly.

The best form of protection really is isolation. We're learning that this virus can survive even on clothing for over 24hrs; so if you wear something out and about, you should immediately put those clothes in a hot wash and clean yourself before putting any other clothes on. Avoid touching your face or having your hands in or around your mouth in case you have touched something that has come into contact with the virus......also sanitise sanitise sanitise. Gel hand sanitisers both kill the virus as well as build up a layer that is harder for it to adhere to so there is less chance of you accidentally carrying it around.

Nothing however is going to beat avoiding it all together.

 

[p_xavier]

I'll be willing to adopt an American middle-aged male cub when things get better. We must all do our part!

 

[Mohonky]

Can we all agree on fuck the Chinese government?

In general, yes.

China did go in brutal on the isolation and quarantine regimen but it was too late and I do believe they played down the potential for the international spread probably because of the economic blow back (which of course as we now know, would have been a drop in the bucket compared to what it would eventually turn out to be). They need to be setting higher infection control protocols in wet markets and enforcing them. Until they do, the chance of continued zoonotic virus transmissions will forever be an issue.