PropellerEar
Member
This is what I've been saying, but I don't have any actual proof as MSFT hides the deets.
Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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DJ12
Member
I suppose if Amber Heard can get a verdict anything is possible.
However best he can hope for in this case is for the CMA to look at again and be 'less irrational' coming up with their answer.
MasterCornholio
Member
bender
What time is it?
I know the judge I can corrupt him, take that haters!!
We're reaching kindergarten levels.
Edit: if the appeal hasn't even been formally asked how is it possible that the CAT's judge is already chosen? Do they have a single judge?
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DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
I know the judge I can corrupt him, take that haters!!
We're reaching kindergarten levels.
Edit: if the appeal hasn't even been formally asked how is it possible that the CAT's judge is already chosen? Do they have a single judge?
Home | Competition Appeal Tribunal
Looks like it's a body of judges. I think he's lying. He's also saying Microsoft will leave the UK as a last resort, and I heard that's nearly impossible to do.
That guy is insane.
PaintTinJr
Gold Member
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PaintTinJr
Gold Member
Name any current or former platform holder in gaming that could do AAA gaming ($500m budget games) for $1 or £1 per month deals for more than a few months and offer challenges to get it for free?
Obviously I don't need you to answer, because the answer is no-one. Microsoft and Xbox stand alone as the only platform holder that can bleed out the opposition and confuse idiots into believing you can fund 12 or more $500m games per year on gamepass - and hundreds of lesser indie-A-AA - with just $10 or £10/month from less than 30m subs, and then add-in the essential content from a $70b acquisition that generates billions per year and add that in too ,and developers still get the same cut
I might be mistaken, but pretty sure there was a thread just yesterday saying PS gamers are buying less games - probably because some of them have xbox and gamepass, and the PS Premium which is all devaluing B2P.
They are buying less games because of the price hike. Add in inflation to other essentials like food and people are a lot less likely to splurge on a 70 plus dollar game unless they are absolutely sold on it.
feynoob
Banned
feynoob
Banned
He is not insane. Insane people can't control themselves.
This dude transcended insanity.
reinking
Gold Member
I can't figure out these guys wanting MS to leave UK. Even if, and no sane person thinks it would happen, but if it did, their big win against Sony is to freely give them one of the markets that Xbox actually competes in? Hand over all cloud business to competitors? Could Microsoft sustatain the loss? Maybe, but will they? I doubt it, they just went back in business with Russia.
POKEYCLYDE
Member
Numbers there are a little inflated. I've done the math here several times. If each one of Microsoft's 23 studios were making a AAA game at dev costs of $200M over 4 years. Dev costs for the year are $1.15B. (Not to mention some of these studios have longer dev times and some are not even AAA devs)
At 25M subscribers paying an average of $10/month, that's $3B per year in revenue.
At 50M subscribers (a reasonable target goal), that's $6B a year.
Loss leading is a perfectly viable strategy, one that Sony engages in presently and in the past.
Sounds like competition. Sounds like some consumers prefer spending a little every month and getting access to a library of games. Than dropping a large sum everytime they want to play something new.
The moment these services don't seem worth it, a drop in quality or quantity, where the cost of paying for the service outweighs the value for a customer, they'll stop paying for the service.
There will always be alternatives to MGS services.
Varteras
Member
If they thought Sony's exclusivity deals were big now, just wait until developers hear there is no Xbox to sell their games on in one of the largest gaming markets.
Well, "sell".
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feynoob
Banned
They don't care about the after math. They just to win their Internet argument.
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Topher
Identifies as young
That's what I said yesterday. If MS is willing to go back to doing business with Russia in this current global climate then there is no way in hell they are going to back out of the UK just the sake of buying ABK. Hell, MS has two Azure data centers in the UK. Massive government contracts. Retail stores. UK is still a huge market for Microsoft. People need to think.
feynoob
Banned
The loss of leaving UK will impact MS negatively.
That is more than 100b loss and massive stock drop.
The US will put MS in hell situation , if they are able to pull a move like that.
POKEYCLYDE
Member
Do you have proof?
Topher
Identifies as young
Not to mention the massive global PR nightmare.
He said the judge is aware of him and his blog.
feynoob
Banned
If it's sustainable, that means the cost is offset by the revenue.
You can't have sustainable, if you can't cover the cost.
SneakersSO
Member
The exact same thing could be asked inversely - do you have proof of their profitability? Have they presented to their shareholders that its profitable? Have they even insinuated it in an earnings call?
I speak to folks within Microsoft Games Studios/Xbox Games Studios on a somewhat regular basis. I trust them far more than i'd ever trust Phil Spencer.
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Nydius
Member
Which is hilarious because Foss, being a lawyer, should know that his blog is nothing more than meaningless ex parte fluff that will have no bearing whatsoever on any appeal.
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SneakersSO
Member
Unless they are factoring in other intrinsic values to reach this point of 'sustainability'. And as of yet, its really only sustainable in the sense that they are willing to continue burning money on it until it reaches its fabled scale point.
There are a host of other values they derive from GP that allows them to feel comfortable with its cost, but no one in the industry who have done cost analysis on GamePass has came away with the conclusion that its either profitable or sustainable. If they did, you would've seen every publisher and manufacturer introduce a 1:1 GamePass competitor into their publishing model or ecosystems, and that simply has not happened. I've spoken to loads of folks at publishers who have done cost estimation on GamePass - not one has ever even insinuated that its cost effective/profitable/sustainable.
POKEYCLYDE
Member
And I have an uncle at Nintendo.
Burden of proof is on you, since you claim to "factually know it is not profitable".
GHG
Gold Member
Telling the world you are going to attempt corruption before said corruption has taken place doesn't seem too wise to me. But then, this 100% fits his character.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
That's ... not how it works though. You're only accounting for very surface-level expenditures.
If that were true, try to apply this to PlayStation, because we know the full details of their numbers.
If the game development costs are only $1.15 billion per year ... let's double it for no reason ... let's make it $2.5 billion per year. PlayStation's revenue was $25 billion in the last fiscal year. So that means their operating profit should be more than $15 billion, at least, even if account for the 70% returned revenue for third-party software sales, right?
Their operating profit was only $3 billion. So $22 billion of operating expenses in 1 year. And they had fewer studios and developers than Xbox.
Why do you think they have an operating expenditure of $22 billion per year if the game development cost, as per you, is only $1.15 billion per year?
feynoob
Banned
Profit is different than sustainable.
Covering the cost can be sustainable, but you won't gain that much profit from it.
Gamepass needs more than 30m userbase to be profitable, as the cost will rise with more AAA games on the service.
Gamepass brings 2b revenue as of now. And will bring close to 3b, since they closed the 1$ gamepass deals.
I don't see the cost higher than 2b-3b.
SneakersSO
Member
Your first mistake is in assuming Microsoft's internal scalepoint is 30m users. And on top of that, not all 30m would even be paying the full subscription cost, since most new users, and this is sorta key because of their insane churn rate, have gotten in with several $1 promotions or free promotions.
I've been told the scalepoint number for Gamepass is north of 60m users. We're talking about a business model that was sold by Spencer telling his stakeholders that they can/will reach billions of users once Cloud adoption explodes. They are supremely comfortable burning money and jacking up their operational costs because the expectation is those subscribers will explode at some point and completely overshadow their currently ridiculous scalepoint figure.
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feynoob
Banned
Gamepass doesnt cover that cost alone. Xbox games bring their own revenue, and gamepass covers the lost sales.
At most, it's about 30%-60% of the cost. For a 200m game, gamepass will cover around 60m-140m.
As for the gamepass revenue, it isn't 2b. That is our estimate. And it's 2b, due to subscription cost only. There are other avenue like mtx, game sales and dlc sales that we don't account.
dotnotbot
Member
His uncle works at CAT.
POKEYCLYDE
Member
Do you have a source for that, or just another friend that works at Microsoft?
SneakersSO
Member
Colleagues, not friends. And yes.
XesqueVara
Member
Yeah, FH5 probably paid itself with just the amount of people who paid to play 2 days earlier.
POKEYCLYDE
Member
By source I mean something you can link. An article. Something tangible that says Gamepass' scale point is 60M subs.
feynoob
Banned
They cancelled the 1$ promo code.
That promo lasts for certain months, and you have to pay full price after that, if you want to use the service. It's why we use 8$ average on our equation.
30m on 8$ average brings around 2.88b a year or 240m a month.
They can reach 60m, as pc gamepass is a thing on top of console side.
As for billions, that is xcloud, which is tied to gamepass ultimate. If you are a xcloud user, you are going to need that, unless it's exception for gamepass like fortnite.
MS/Phil can hit large numbers of users using gamepass/xcloud. That will not happen right now, as xcloud needs infrastructure and tools to be good.
This is where MS is burning a lot of money. Their cloud gaming is eating a lot of cost.
Tomeru
Member
Yo let them leave. That way, the EU will block them for sure. And then they'll leave eu all together! And the the FTC will block them too..and they'll leave the us! And then, um, they uhhh....
I have nothing more. But it's a good plan
feynoob
Banned
Stop it, you are burning their last brain cells.Yo let them leave. That way, the EU will block them for sure. And then they'll leave eu all together! And the the FTC will block them too..and they'll leave the us! And then, um, they uhhh....
I have nothing more. But it's a good plan
demigod
Member
This shit brings back elementary school days. "I saw you during lunch!"I know the judge I can corrupt him, take that haters!!
We're reaching kindergarten levels.
Edit: if the appeal hasn't even been formally asked how is it possible that the CAT's judge is already chosen? Do they have a single judge?
feynoob
Banned
I am glad we are not allowing a $68b purchase.
The price itself was insane.
Look at what is happening with premier league. Chelsea, Manchester City and new Castle United. All got bought by rich people. Manchester United is likely going to be bought by qatar prince.
Chelsea with their American backer spent €600m in 1 season buying all talent kids. Saudi s got 300b networth. Manchester City group spent a lot of money for all the talents that they have. The market is fucked with all these overpriced players.
For clubs like Liverpool, arsenal and Tottenham, it's hard to compete with these teams money.
While money can't buy you success, it can give you all the talent people that you want with a flick of your hand.
MS could have seriously hurted the industry, had this deal got approved. Not to mention the likes of google, Amazon and tencent waiting their turn to capitalize on that approved deal.
I am glad that nightmare won't come to reality.
The price itself was insane.
Look at what is happening with premier league. Chelsea, Manchester City and new Castle United. All got bought by rich people. Manchester United is likely going to be bought by qatar prince.
Chelsea with their American backer spent €600m in 1 season buying all talent kids. Saudi s got 300b networth. Manchester City group spent a lot of money for all the talents that they have. The market is fucked with all these overpriced players.
For clubs like Liverpool, arsenal and Tottenham, it's hard to compete with these teams money.
While money can't buy you success, it can give you all the talent people that you want with a flick of your hand.
MS could have seriously hurted the industry, had this deal got approved. Not to mention the likes of google, Amazon and tencent waiting their turn to capitalize on that approved deal.
I am glad that nightmare won't come to reality.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
we?
POKEYCLYDE
Member
I'm not taking into account loss on console sales, marketing, administrative costs (unless some of these costs are factored into dev costs like administrative costs).
Just looking at if revenue generated by Gamepass subs covers game development. Not accounting B2P sales, MTX or other service revenue like Feynoob said.
Dick Jones
Banned
The other two? I think they will be fair, both Justices Sage and Tom Warren.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
All those costs add up, and then it is game sales that ultimately turn the division profitable. MTX helps, but the majority of games by first-party studios are not MTX games.
So if game sales are being cannibalized by a subscription service, then that subscription service needs to compensate for all those other costs as well for it to be profitable.
Banjo64
cumsessed
Would be a nice partnership with Florian's single brain cell.I know the judge I can corrupt him, take that haters!!
We're reaching kindergarten levels.
Edit: if the appeal hasn't even been formally asked how is it possible that the CAT's judge is already chosen? Do they have a single judge?
feynoob
Banned
XesqueVara
Member
Tbh the entire Premier League have a advantage over every other league when we talk about money, the fact that midtable clubs like Westham could spend over 100m$ it's ridiculous btw.
Dick Jones
Banned
Shawn Layden doesn't come across like he would even dream of others failures. Now Jim Ryan would do a Hannah Montana to fuck up Xbox.
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