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[blacktout]

On AI's icarus moment... how can you say he's not even close? when this bubble pops it's going to be a bloodbath and there's speculation it's right around the corner.
How is being on the knife edge of a massive global financial disaster not flying too close to the sun?

He's not even close because these are predictions for *2025*, and if AI is indeed a bubble, it has only grown this year, not popped.

Now, maybe there will be a catastrophic market swing in the next few weeks, but unless that happens, he's way off the mark for this year.

 

[CamHostage]

He's not even close because these are predictions for *2025*, and if AI is indeed a bubble, it has only grown this year, not popped.

Now, maybe there will be a catastrophic market swing in the next few weeks, but unless that happens, he's way off the mark for this year.

I agree, 2025 isn't the year where AI gets hits a crucial point (if ever), but as far as it only showing growth, that's generally how bubbles work: they don't deflate, they pop.

The business interest in AI seems to know no bounds, 2025 is little different so far. I do think this year has had a little public offerings of the technology in action which have gone south with consumers, but they haven't been "failures", the l rather they have been eye-openers in how successful they are, and nobody knows what the public might do after rabidly consuming it at first. For example, that Country song which charted has pissed off a lot of fans who thought Country music was the real shit, but it charted, so it's already hit. Will folks who hate this artificial humanity rise up for the real, or do they ultimately not give a shit if it's computers or rednecks singing so long as it's about trucks and beer and the rebel way?

 

[mitch1971]

20% of the time, he's right 80% of the time.

 

[Poppinfresh]

I agree, 2025 isn't the year where AI gets hits a crucial point (if ever), but as far as it only showing growth, that's how bubbles work: they don't deflate, they pop.

I'm thinking either late 2026 or 2027 is when the bubble is going to pop, unless there's a significant technical breakthrough before then.

 

[Clear]

He's not even close because these are predictions for *2025*, and if AI is indeed a bubble, it has only grown this year, not popped.

Its very close to popping now a lot a major investors are cashing out. And people are starting to notice how the funding is circular and there's no obvious route by which a lot of this stuff is going to recoup the investment, let alone when.

 

[blacktout]

I agree, 2025 isn't the year where AI gets hits a crucial point (if ever), but as far as it only showing growth, that's how bubbles work: they don't deflate, they pop.

Well, that's not always true, because some economic bubbles do indeed slowly deflate rather than dramatically popping (the 2020 video game bubble is actually an example of exactly that), but, either way, my point still stands: the bubble hasn't popped, so, as of right now, Schreier's 2025 prediction is a misfire.

 

[CamHostage]

Its very close to popping now a lot a major investors are cashing out. And people are starting to notice how the funding is circular and there's no obvious route by which a lot of this stuff is going to recoup the investment, let alone when.

I'm just not sure we know what a bubble like this popping might look like?

You think it would be like the dotcom crash, where every market was 'disrupted' by the technology and we had to figure out what to do with all the people washed out in the wave, but we at least knew that the market was still there for products and services, we just needed to find a balance to move forward with.

AI, it's a genie which can never be put back in the bottle, but it'll continue to drain an extraordinary amount of resources to exist and it shows few signs of offering a future where people fall into new roles once the system gets worked out. Sure, there will be boutique markets continuing to provide human services by humans for humans, but we don't know what the rest of society will look like otherwise.

The most recent bubble pop was the Streaming/Service Wars (which is further relevant on GAF if you consider XB Game Pass, which isn't streaming but was in the same all-you-can-eat subscription model battle.) That bubble's end looked different all along, and has come apart in its own way. Unlike dotcom or other gold rushes where there were countless miners headed to strike it rich, this was just a few companies (some of which swallowed each other up in the rush to make the field even smaller.) Even though it involved millions of people and employees, it wasn't a bubble of people and companies, it was a bubble of mega-conglomerates, like titans or national superpowers blowing up their own balloons. And it never really popped, but it hit a peak and then just stopped. So it's like there's only Disney and Netflix and Amazon and a few other players, and they all have all the money in all of entertainment, but they're all saying they're broke because they cannot get bigger and cannot absorb any more failures, so they're just floating there, puffed up and unable to move in any direction...

 

[Sgt.Asher]