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[S0ULZB0URNE]

Might even be worse than Wii U. Gonna be another career moment for Phil.

It would be lucky if it sold half of Wii U.
Steambox stealing it's thunder.

 

[Tobimacoss]

Thousands. People build their own, or use smaller business websites that will do it for cheaper than the likes of ASUS.

If they were sold into the millions, then you'd see and hear more from them.

So you basically made things up, you have no proof.

I can't find the link, but I saw somewhere that prebuilts sell about 10 to 12 million units a year globally. That's a very crowded field of competitors though. Dozens beyond the typical Asus, MSI, Lenovo OEMs. So yeah.....thousands per is probably accurate on average.

This is the same business model for handhelds and other marked up PCs. Selling for profit means lower volume.

Gaming PC sales slipped 13% last year, but analysts predict 2024 will see a return to growth

Sales of gaming PCs totaled 44 million units in 2023, and are set to get bigger.

www.tomshardware.com

44 million in 2023, 52 million Gaming PCs in 2025. Lenovo alone sells 44 million windows devices every year.

Overall IDC numbers usually range from 250 million to 300 million Windows devices every year.

Will volatile 2026 markets be the end of smaller PC brands?

A new report from IDC suggests that 2026 PC markets will be "extremely volatile," potentially leading to the ruin of smaller brands.

www.windowscentral.com

Just like Omdia's results, IDC shows Lenovo at the top of the PC sales charts with around 71 million (70.8 is the exact number IDC shares) shipments throughout all of 2025. HP comes in second place with 57.5 million shipments, Dell in third with 41.1 million, Apple in fourth with 25.6 million, and ASUS in fifth with 20.5 million.

Legion is Lenovo's gaming brand and "gaming PCs" made up at least 20% of Lenovo's revenues.

You both are missing few points. Pretty much most if not all windows devices are gaming capable, going forward with Intel Xess iGPUs and AMD Ryzen/RDNA.

MS and AMD are doing an entire portfolio of devices. We still don't yet know the existence/possibility of a S tier Magnus Console. When you market your product, you market the more premium top tier hardware, that's why MS only talks about the X tier SKU, until very close to launch. They did the same with Series X.

Xbox and AMD: Advancing the Next Generation of Gaming Together - Xbox Wire

This week, Xbox announced it is actively building its next-generation lineup across console, handheld, PC, cloud, and accessories. Find out more inside.

news.xbox.com

"future first party consoles" as in plural. They are absolutely going to have an S tier device. They will not be serving 1080p data streams using Magnus X profiles for xCloud.

 

[Topher]

So you basically made things up, you have no proof.

Gaming PC sales slipped 13% last year, but analysts predict 2024 will see a return to growth

Sales of gaming PCs totaled 44 million units in 2023, and are set to get bigger.

www.tomshardware.com

44 million in 2023, 52 million Gaming PCs in 2025. Lenovo alone sells 44 million windows devices every year.

Overall IDC numbers usually range from 250 million to 300 million Windows devices every year.

Will volatile 2026 markets be the end of smaller PC brands?

A new report from IDC suggests that 2026 PC markets will be "extremely volatile," potentially leading to the ruin of smaller brands.

www.windowscentral.com

Legion is Lenovo's gaming brand and "gaming PCs" made up at least 20% of Lenovo's revenues.

Ok....a lot more than I thought I read. Fair enough.

You both are missing few points. Pretty much most if not all windows devices are gaming capable, going forward with Intel Xess iGPUs and AMD Ryzen/RDNA.

The fact that most new PCs have a gpu that is capable of playing some games isn't what is being talked about. When we talk about "prebuilt gaming PC" then the discussion is about a PC built for the purposes of gaming. No one is talking about a $150 acer laptop. The article you linked makes the same distinction between overall PC market and gaming PC market.

 

[Nydius]

You surprised? I mean, it is well known since previous year that next Xbox won't be cheap. Neither XSeries are cheap too

Surprised that Microsoft is making another boneheaded decision? Hardly. I simply fail to see the point when they can't even sell Series consoles at a loss.

Selling some bespoke Console/PC hybrid at full PC prices is a dead on arrival idea and if they want to maximize revenue their best bet would be to focus on the Scrooge McDuck vault full of IPs they now own and go full third party. Keep Game Pass on PC then, once out of hardware fully, angle to add Game Pass to other platforms, like EA Play or Ubisoft+.

 

[mckmas8808]

Honestly people have been saying it before that even happened. Pretty sure HeisenbergFX4 said it before that if not him than Jez. There's just people out there who can't wrap their head around a company releasing a console and not really trying to outsell their competitors. It's a new concept that apparently has a lot of people refusing to accept it.

It's because it's a STUPID CONCEPT!!!

 

[PauloRoberto]

It's because it's a STUPID CONCEPT!!!

It's not... but a company should at least try to be better than itself, and the fact that MS clearly is not being able to do that and this new strategy wont help it... that is stupid.

 

[mckmas8808]

It's the Trojan horse for the No Walled Gardens™ crusade that will follow.

I like that you gave that phrase a trademark, because that's definitely coming in a few years. It's the only way big dogs that can't compete, fight back. Epic and their weak spines are similar.

It's not... but a company should at least try to be better than itself, and the fact that MS clearly is not being able to do that and this new strategy wont help it... that is stupid.

Well.....I mean it's a stupid concept with the way MS is doing it. MS should be bigger than this. They shouldn't have to resort to being a small fish in this way. Every generation, they should be able to sell a minimum of 50 million units (Xbox One level). The fact that they are conceding like this is embarrassing.

 

[CentralScrutinizer]

It's because it's a STUPID CONCEPT!!!

Microsoft would've been perfectly fine and sustainable if they never bought ABK and kept all of the Bethesda games exclusive. This strategy would not have had them beating Sony at all, but it most likely would've let them sell 50-60m Xbox systems each generation and that most likely would've been more than enough to have a healthy and profitible ecosystem. I can almost guarentee you this was the plan the moment they bought Bethesda. BUT Phil got full of himself and wanted to buy ABK and he had to sacrifice the Xbox brand in the process and now all of Microsoft gaming is choking on the acquisition. They should've stopped with Bethesda and let the generation ride out.
They fucked around and found out and they are getting exactly what they deserve.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

It's because it's a STUPID CONCEPT!!!

How has their current plan been going last couple of generations though?

 

[mckmas8808]

How has their current plan been going last couple of generations though?

The Xbox One generation wasn't bad. Too me, they screwed the start up in HUGE ways because they got ahead of themselves. And then they ended it poorly by putting every 1st party game on GamePass on Day One. It feels to me MS is always screwing things up because they are wanting to change the game. They want to change how the videogame industry works in HUGE ways and the market\gamers are consistently telling them no.

The only time they were 100% right on this was with their idea to mandate a LAN port on every Xbox and their idea of Xbox Live (and it being a paid for service).

Microsoft would've been perfectly fine and sustainable if they never bought ABK and kept all of the Bethesda games exclusive. This strategy would not have had them beating Sony at all, but it most likely would've let them sell 50-60m Xbox systems each generation and that most likely would've been more than enough to have a healthy and profitible ecosystem. I can almost guarentee you this was the plan the moment they bought Bethesda. BUT Phil got full of himself and wanted to buy ABK and he had to sacrifice the Xbox brand in the process and now all of Microsoft gaming is choking on the acquisition. They should've stopped with Bethesda and let the generation ride out.
They fucked around and found out and they are getting exactly what they deserve.

Totally agree! But their lust to be the "Netflix of Games" is what doomed them. They NEEDED GamePass to have 100 million subscribers by any means necessary. And this is always how MS screws up Xbox. They always want that division to be something that it shouldn't be.

Remember TV, TV, TV?

 

[mayham2199]

It will muddy when it comes to console licenses on the same box as non console license storefronts. Publishers will then question why they pay that to begin with. Then advertising "PlayStation games" on a console license (closed ecosystem) box as well.

Then buddying up with Epic and putting out the "no walled gardens" PR a few months ago wasn't a coincidence.

Will be interesting to see but I don't like their chances. This is going to be a long trial, this wont be over in weeks it will take years to battle this. Epic vs Apple is still going and a judge recently just ruled that Apple should still get a percentage of the sale even if users are directed outside of the store.

With so much focus on AI right now and the Xbox division stagnating are they really wanting to focus on this and spend millions more? As well as having their attorneys working on this? Satya already made a mistake by spending so much time\money on the Xbox division and then they had 70 billion less to spend on AI. Is he going to make that same mistake by having their attorneys and money once again tied up in the gaming division? COD just fell off a cliff this year and pretty much will do the same next year with GTA coming out. This division is going through it and I have a hard time seeing MS really wanting to take on a half decade legal battle for a division thats stagnated if not shrinking.

Also I remember during the FTC emails there were leaked\shown emails of Phil talking about how they want to use their portfolio of games to negotiate a lower percentage take from other stores. To me this seems like a much more likely route for them to take and it avoids trials, lawyers, email leaks, etc. No matter how this trial goes there is no way MS convinces judges that PS shouldn't get anything. There's just no reality where this happens. So the only question is how much can they claw back by taking it to trial, 10, 20%? Seems easier to me to just negotiate with Sony and get close to the percentage you want and avoid all of this. You might not get exactly what you want but being about 5% off is better than a half decade battle that you could end up losing.

Then comes the consoles. When this goes to trial MS will point to their console and say look we got rid of the walled gardens. Then Sony\Nintendo will say sure and they also charge almost double what we do for their device. Sony and Nintendo will claim they will be forced to do the same for their devices and this without question will hurt consumers.

I've always thought this idea that they will take it to trial is a longshot. This was before AI and division stagnated the way it has. I'm even more certain now that Satya is looking at Xbox and doesn't want to spend one more cent on that division. I think very soon AI is going to start facing real legal action and they are going to need their lawyers ready to take that on. Not worrying about walled gardens for a division that isn't growing.

 

[onQ123]

It's because it's a STUPID CONCEPT!!!

They need a base hardware spec to make software to & they also need upgraded server blades so they're locked into making hardware no matter what. So it's basically like hey you can buy the home version but it's going to cost you because we're not making the money back on software like we used to.

Buying Activision was for leverage to get locked onto other platforms because Xbox Hardware was dying.

 

[Insanemaelstrom]

Microsoft would've been perfectly fine and sustainable if they never bought ABK and kept all of the Bethesda games exclusive. This strategy would not have had them beating Sony at all, but it most likely would've let them sell 50-60m Xbox systems each generation and that most likely would've been more than enough to have a healthy and profitible ecosystem. I can almost guarentee you this was the plan the moment they bought Bethesda. BUT Phil got full of himself and wanted to buy ABK and he had to sacrifice the Xbox brand in the process and now all of Microsoft gaming is choking on the acquisition. They should've stopped with Bethesda and let the generation ride out.
They fucked around and found out and they are getting exactly what they deserve.

Agreed.

Heck, personally, if they hadn't acquired Activision, I think they would have recovered and been able to directly compete with Sony and nintendo in a gen or two especially if they had kept Bethesda games exclusive.

It honestly feels like Activision acquired Xbox rather than the other way around. By buying Activision, they suddenly had too many studios and too many games. So many games that it was practically impossible to be sustainable with just Xbox and pc. Their priority and core income changed from hardware to software and sadly I don't think there is any turning back now.

 

[Hyper_hyper]

Surprised that Microsoft is making another boneheaded decision?

That's common thing.

I simply fail to see the point when they can't even sell Series consoles at a loss.

MS stopped subsidizing Xbox hardware surely since last year. I mean, MS raised the price twice last year and slowed down production significantly.

 

[Baki]

The Xbox One generation wasn't bad. Too me, they screwed the start up in HUGE ways because they got ahead of themselves. And then they ended it poorly by putting every 1st party game on GamePass on Day One. It feels to me MS is always screwing things up because they are wanting to change the game. They want to change how the videogame industry works in HUGE ways and the market\gamers are consistently telling them no.

The only time they were 100% right on this was with their idea to mandate a LAN port on every Xbox and their idea of Xbox Live (and it being a paid for service).



Totally agree! But their lust to be the "Netflix of Games" is what doomed them. They NEEDED GamePass to have 100 million subscribers by any means necessary. And this is always how MS screws up Xbox. They always want that division to be something that it shouldn't be.

Remember TV, TV, TV?

It's all Phil's fault. Entire management team at Xbox needs to be moved on.

 

[onQ123]

Microsoft would've been perfectly fine and sustainable if they never bought ABK and kept all of the Bethesda games exclusive. This strategy would not have had them beating Sony at all, but it most likely would've let them sell 50-60m Xbox systems each generation and that most likely would've been more than enough to have a healthy and profitible ecosystem. I can almost guarentee you this was the plan the moment they bought Bethesda. BUT Phil got full of himself and wanted to buy ABK and he had to sacrifice the Xbox brand in the process and now all of Microsoft gaming is choking on the acquisition. They should've stopped with Bethesda and let the generation ride out.
They fucked around and found out and they are getting exactly what they deserve.

Not really,


Before moving to Multiplatform Xbox hadn't released a mega hit game since Kinect Adventure while PlayStation & Nintendo was releasing 10 , 15 & 20 million sellers on their own platforms. All this was happening while Microsoft was taking a $100 - $200 hit on Xbox Series Consoles.

At some point the production value of the games would have to get lower & lower because of the low return on investment but now they can actually complete in the software department because games sell on PlayStation, Switch & PC.

Sure they could have used that same money to invest in their own studios & make great games but they wanted the big names to get subscribers.

 

[Hyper_hyper]

Given that xcloud quarter hours is at ~150 mil, it gives 12.5m hours per week.
Even of one play a hour per day, it's less than 2 mil users. And cloud users as enthusiasts of advanced tech tends to play more than average.

You're falsely assuming every player has the same playing behavior/pattern.

Few things we know, over 25 million users in Xbox ecosystem have used xcloud at one point, and over 35 million PC gamers have tried GFN. So at the very least, there's a diverse userbase who has tried the service even if they don't use it actively.

We also know from Nvidia, when they capped their service to 100 hour monthly limit with additional hours being purchasable, that only 6% of the GFN active userbase passed 100 hours, and majority of their users were in the 40-50 hour usage per month.

100 hours per month is 3.33 hours every day for 30 days. Most users don't play every day. And their session lengths average 2-3 hours.

So even if an xCloud user plays 40 hours a month, or 10 hours a week, that would be 3 days of 3.33 hour sessions. Or let's make it 50 hours monthly, so 4 days of 3 hour sessions.

150 million hours per quarter or 50 million hours per month, and 50 hours monthly per user. That would be 1 million users. If it's 25 hours month per user on average, that's 2 million users. If it's 10 hours month per user, that would be 5 million users.

MS only needs to grow the service 4 to 6.66 times from 150 million to up to 600 million to 1 billion hours quarterly in order to create a very viable userbase.

It grew 45% yoy in fiscal year ending 2025, that was before Cloud Gaming expanded to other tiers, especially Essential, and before they expanded to India. Brazil and India demand is too high to keep up for them. And now they're expanding to TCL, Hisense, and Google TVs soon.

So going from 150 million hours per quarter to 600 million isn't that far fetched, I think it's already at 200 million for this quarter most likely. At 1 billion hours quarterly will be a juggernaut with momentum.

At 50 hours average per month per user, 1.5 billion hours per month or 4.5 billion per quarter basically replaces or supplements all 30 million Series users. That is long ways away, but shows you that once the momentum builds up, it's achievable as there are enough gamers in the world who can't afford or don't want hardware.

If we go by GFN average Xcloud is roughly 1 mil users at this point.
It's ~tiny~ userbase, very niche. Growing it 6 times to 1 bil is a challenge as it would require to go from something like Asus ROG Xbox to at least SteamDeck, and growing it further would be even more difficult.

1 mil users a month on back of GPU sales is not that much difficult, there are always enthusiasts of new tech that will try anything new and some of them will stay - like people do but ASUS ROG even though it's ultra niche device.

1 bil hours or 6 mil people is a range of core players that already wants value proposition and not just some fancy new tech - they want it to be usable, valuable, but they can still pay premium for what it offers.

Going past 1 bil hours require to tap into semi-casual/casual market and it will be a big problem as that market value convinience, easy of use, accessibility and cheapness. And cloud now have no way to provide stability in those.

First of all, to reach feasible number of hours for Xcloud ( since it is now across all GP tiers) they need this

FTC lawyer James Weingarten put the following internal Xbox Game Pass slide in front of Spencer, asking him whether he agreed with the projections that show the subscription service surpassing 100 million users between FY29 and FY30, largely due to an increase in the PC and cloud market.

Microsoft May Exit Gaming Business If Game Pass Subscribers off Console Don't Increase Enough by 2027

Microsoft's Phil Spencer said in testimony that the company may exit its gaming business if GP subscribers off consoles don't increase a lot.

wccftech.com

Second of all..

It is not far fetched, it is dead dream. That won't happen. At all.

3rd... yeah, Steam OS.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Or else gaming dies.

Finish the sentence.

Xbox was willing to trash the entire console gaming business plan by losing money with Gamepass, with the goal of pushing the price up again once everyone else is gone. They failed, but their intentions are still evil.

And when they finally lost the console war, they had their followers come on these forums talking about how Console is dead and the PC gaming is the future. We are talking about Xbox customers who never touched PC and know nothing about PC, pretending to be PC gamers and making REAL PC gamers like me extremely offended.

Xbox is dying because it is what it deserves.

Sadly that has always been Microsofts culture.

Fear, Uncertainy, Demand. FUD.

They never win with quality (except for the original and first half of the 360), but trash the competition. I will NEVER root for their business model to succeed.

They're throwing everything they've got at AI and hilariously, they seem to be the one company doing AI that is being completely ignored by everyone else.

 

[Hyper_hyper]

It's all Phil's fault. Entire management team at Xbox needs to be moved on.

Where I've heard word "management" yesterday??

EDIT : oh, Fallout S2E05, Vault Tec management.

 

[nowhat]

Fear, Uncertainy, Demand. FUD.

Doubt. The "D", in this instance, stands for "Doubt". But obviously the tried-and-true tactic hasn't really been applicable when it comes to gaming. At best all they've been able to do is to get people excited for the next E3/year/console/whatnot. Some still seem to fall for it, P. T. Barnum would be proud.

 

[Ar¢tos]

Surprised that Microsoft is making another boneheaded decision? Hardly. I simply fail to see the point when they can't even sell Series consoles at a loss.

Selling some bespoke Console/PC hybrid at full PC prices is a dead on arrival idea and if they want to maximize revenue their best bet would be to focus on the Scrooge McDuck vault full of IPs they now own and go full third party. Keep Game Pass on PC then, once out of hardware fully, angle to add Game Pass to other platforms, like EA Play or Ubisoft+.

Because it's not about sales at all.
It's about having the most powerful console, even if it only has a paper launch, so they have a few crumbs to feed shareholders.

 

[NickFire]

I wonder if the rank and file devs at Xbox consider PS5 to be the primary platform yet.

 

[memoryman3]

I wonder if the rank and file devs at Xbox consider PS5 to be the primary platform yet.

They have been shipping on PCs since 2016. Most likely that Windows is going to be the primary platform from here on out.

 

[mckmas8808]

They have been shipping on PCs since 2016. Most likely that Windows is going to be the primary platform from here on out.

Yeah, you're probably right. But I'd love to hear from them on this.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Doubt. The "D", in this instance, stands for "Doubt". But obviously the tried-and-true tactic hasn't really been applicable when it comes to gaming. At best all they've been able to do is to get people excited for the next E3/year/console/whatnot. Some still seem to fall for it, P. T. Barnum would be proud.

Yes...doubt...i cant believe i typed demand...silly me. long day

 

[Welfare]

That +12M figure was sell through. We already have shipment leaks from back in 2023, what I'm about to post is old news by 2 years. Ampere had sell through at 10.5M end of 2021 and 13.8M end of June 2022. 18 months (6 quarters) in would be +12M.

Lmfao, Welfare had it over 16mil in the 18 months, now you know how he got his 37m.

Source: FTC leak file multiple (CSA for FY22 was attached to a few files, PX 1114 is one of them)

Xbox Series Market Share FY21 Q1-3: 37%
Xbox Series Market Share FY22 Q1-3: 46% (+9)

Microsoft FY21: July 2020 - June 2021
Microsoft FY22: July 2021 - June 2022

PS5 Shipments in Microsoft's FY21 Q1-3: 7.8M (4.5M + 3.3M)
PS5 Shipments in Microsoft's FY22 Q1-3: 9.2M (3.3M + 3.9M +2.0M)

Gen 9 FY21 Q1-3: ~12.38M (PS5 7.8M / 0.63)
Gen 9 FY22 Q1-3: ~17.04M (PS5 9.2M / 0.54)

Xbox Series FY21 Q1-3: ~4.58M (12.38M - PS5 7.8M)
Xbox Series FY22 Q1-3: ~7.84M (17.04M - PS5 9.2M)

Xbox Series FY22 Q3 LTD: ~12.4M, missing FY21 Q4

Literal inarguable data above this comment, comes from Xbox internal slides leaked in the FTC files. Anything under this comment is almost guaranteed to be the case based on statements and revenue.

Phil Spencer says the target for FY22 is 9.6M consoles (Source: FTC leak file PX 1145)

As a team we are starting to work through our FY22 plan. Right now we have 9.6M consoles in our FY22 plan, 31M Xbox Game Pass sub ending balance and 22.5M game streaming entitlements.

We know they shipped 7.8M in FY22 Q1-3, leaving 1.8M for Q4 to hit 9.6M

Jim Ryan confirmed Xbox outsold PS5 for a 3 month period in 2021, only quarter that would make sense is holiday 2021 (based on Satya Nadella saying Xbox took share from Sony in FY22 Q2 and Q3), where PS5 shipped 3.9M, meaning XBS shipped at least 4.0M that quarter.

Satya Nadella

With our Xbox Series S and X consoles, we have taken share globally for two quarters in a row and we are the market leader this quarter among next gen consoles in the U.S., Canada, U.K., and Western Europe.

Jim Ryan (RX 5059)

Q: You did have some supply chain constraints when you were trying to sell PS5s in 2021?
A: Correct
Q: Is that the time period when you saw Xbox sales do better for a short term period than PS5 sales?
A: Correct
Q: Otherwise, can you name a time period where Xbox sales materially exceeded PlayStation 5 sales?
A: No.
Q: How long was that time period where Xbox sales were larger than the PS5 sales?
A: I believe about three months.

7.8M - 4.0M = 3.8M for Q1+Q3 FY22
3.8M / 2 = 1.9M

FY22 Hardware revenue
Q1 $711,000,000 / ~1.9M
Q2 $1,587,000,000 / ~4.0M
Q3 $725,000,000 / ~1.9M
Q4 $685,000,000 / ?

Xbox > PS5 for a quarter in 2021, not above PS5 in any other quarter, and the hardware revenue all line up with the 7.8M. Hardware revenue difference between Q1 and Q3 is 2% and Q2 is ~2.2x them. Q4 is ~5% less than Q1 and Q3, and 57% less than Q2. So 1.8M absolutely works here (-5% vs 1.9M, -55% vs 4.0M), everything points to Xbox hitting that 9.6M target for FY22. Only quarter missing would be FY21 Q4 (April - June 2021), so here's the hardware revenue for that FY

FY21 Hardware revenue
Q1 $267,000,000 / (Xbox One)
Q2 $1,526,000,000 / (Xbox One + Xbox Series)
Q3 $637,000,000 / (Xbox Series, this quarter + previous must equal 4.6M)
Q4 $767,000,000 / ?

A lowball for FY21 Q4 would be 1.8M since it's the highest non holiday revenue, just have it below 1.9M

FY21 Q2 $1,526,000,000 / ~3.0M / ~3.0M
FY21 Q3 $637,000,000 / ~1.6M / 4.6M
FY21 Q4 $767,000,000 / ~1.8M / ~6.4M
FY22 Q1 $711,000,000 / ~1.9M / ~8.3M
FY22 Q2 $1,587,000,000 / ~4.0M / ~12.3M (Stated to be fastest selling Xbox (>Xbox One))
FY22 Q3 $725,000,000 / ~1.9M / ~14.2M
FY22 Q4 $685,000,000 / ~1.8M / ~16.0M (Stated again to be fastest selling Xbox (>Xbox One))

Also, we have direct from Sony the PS5 sell through per quarter up to March 2023 and sell through was equal to shipments until Q4 2022, in case the argument comes up that Xbox > PS5 was a sell through statement. These also line up perfectly with Satya's comment about taking share for two quarters in a row and Jim saying Xbox only materially outsold PS5 for 3 months in 2021. >4M for holiday 2021 and almost 2.0M in Q1 2022 matches with the above.

Quarter	Sell Through	Shipments	Sell Through LTD	Shipments LTD
Q4 2020	4,400,000	4,500,000	4,400,000	4,500,000
Q1 2021	3,200,000	3,300,000	7,600,000	7,800,000
Q2 2021	2,300,000	2,300,000	9,900,000	10,100,000
Q3 2021	3,200,000	3,300,000	13,100,000	13,400,000
Q4 2021	4,000,000	3,900,000	17,100,000	17,300,000
Q1 2022	2,000,000	2,000,000	19,100,000	19,300,000
Q2 2022	2,300,000	2,400,000	21,400,000	21,700,000
Q3 2022	3,000,000	3,300,000	24,400,000	25,000,000
Q4 2022	6,600,000	7,100,000	31,000,000	32,100,000
Q1 2023	5,000,000	6,300,000	36,000,000	38,400,000

Like I said at the start, this is all old news. Nothing new here at all. I've seen some of the posts here still claiming Xbox is <30M and like I've said before, you don't know what you're talking about.

 

[demigod]

That +12M figure was sell through. We already have shipment leaks from back in 2023, what I'm about to post is old news by 2 years. Ampere had sell through at 10.5M end of 2021 and 13.8M end of June 2022. 18 months (6 quarters) in would be +12M.

I stopped reading right here. My guy do you understand what Ampere is? Your numbers are sold thru. You really think they sold 37m? Delusional.

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

That +12M figure was sell through. We already have shipment leaks from back in 2023, what I'm about to post is old news by 2 years. Ampere had sell through at 10.5M end of 2021 and 13.8M end of June 2022. 18 months (6 quarters) in would be +12M.

Source: FTC leak file multiple (CSA for FY22 was attached to a few files, PX 1114 is one of them)

Xbox Series Market Share FY21 Q1-3: 37%
Xbox Series Market Share FY22 Q1-3: 46% (+9)

Microsoft FY21: July 2020 - June 2021
Microsoft FY22: July 2021 - June 2022

PS5 Shipments in Microsoft's FY21 Q1-3: 7.8M (4.5M + 3.3M)
PS5 Shipments in Microsoft's FY22 Q1-3: 9.2M (3.3M + 3.9M +2.0M)

Gen 9 FY21 Q1-3: ~12.38M (PS5 7.8M / 0.63)
Gen 9 FY22 Q1-3: ~17.04M (PS5 9.2M / 0.54)

Xbox Series FY21 Q1-3: ~4.58M (12.38M - PS5 7.8M)
Xbox Series FY22 Q1-3: ~7.84M (17.04M - PS5 9.2M)

Xbox Series FY22 Q3 LTD: ~12.4M, missing FY21 Q4

Literal inarguable data above this comment, comes from Xbox internal slides leaked in the FTC files. Anything under this comment is almost guaranteed to be the case based on statements and revenue.

Phil Spencer says the target for FY22 is 9.6M consoles (Source: FTC leak file PX 1145)


We know they shipped 7.8M in FY22 Q1-3, leaving 1.8M for Q4 to hit 9.6M

Jim Ryan confirmed Xbox outsold PS5 for a 3 month period in 2021, only quarter that would make sense is holiday 2021 (based on Satya Nadella saying Xbox took share from Sony in FY22 Q2 and Q3), where PS5 shipped 3.9M, meaning XBS shipped at least 4.0M that quarter.

Satya Nadella

Jim Ryan (RX 5059)


7.8M - 4.0M = 3.8M for Q1+Q3 FY22
3.8M / 2 = 1.9M

FY22 Hardware revenue
Q1 $711,000,000 / ~1.9M
Q2 $1,587,000,000 / ~4.0M
Q3 $725,000,000 / ~1.9M
Q4 $685,000,000 / ?

Xbox > PS5 for a quarter in 2021, not above PS5 in any other quarter, and the hardware revenue all line up with the 7.8M. Hardware revenue difference between Q1 and Q3 is 2% and Q2 is ~2.2x them. Q4 is ~5% less than Q1 and Q3, and 57% less than Q2. So 1.8M absolutely works here (-5% vs 1.9M, -55% vs 4.0M), everything points to Xbox hitting that 9.6M target for FY22. Only quarter missing would be FY21 Q4 (April - June 2021), so here's the hardware revenue for that FY

FY21 Hardware revenue
Q1 $267,000,000 / (Xbox One)
Q2 $1,526,000,000 / (Xbox One + Xbox Series)
Q3 $637,000,000 / (Xbox Series, this quarter + previous must equal 4.6M)
Q4 $767,000,000 / ?

A lowball for FY21 Q4 would be 1.8M since it's the highest non holiday revenue, just have it below 1.9M

FY21 Q2 $1,526,000,000 / ~3.0M / ~3.0M
FY21 Q3 $637,000,000 / ~1.6M / 4.6M
FY21 Q4 $767,000,000 / ~1.8M / ~6.4M
FY22 Q1 $711,000,000 / ~1.9M / ~8.3M
FY22 Q2 $1,587,000,000 / ~4.0M / ~12.3M (Stated to be fastest selling Xbox (>Xbox One))
FY22 Q3 $725,000,000 / ~1.9M / ~14.2M
FY22 Q4 $685,000,000 / ~1.8M / ~16.0M (Stated again to be fastest selling Xbox (>Xbox One))

Also, we have direct from Sony the PS5 sell through per quarter up to March 2023 and sell through was equal to shipments until Q4 2022, in case the argument comes up that Xbox > PS5 was a sell through statement. These also line up perfectly with Satya's comment about taking share for two quarters in a row and Jim saying Xbox only materially outsold PS5 for 3 months in 2021. >4M for holiday 2021 and almost 2.0M in Q1 2022 matches with the above.

Quarter	Sell Through	Shipments	Sell Through LTD	Shipments LTD
Q4 2020	4,400,000	4,500,000	4,400,000	4,500,000
Q1 2021	3,200,000	3,300,000	7,600,000	7,800,000
Q2 2021	2,300,000	2,300,000	9,900,000	10,100,000
Q3 2021	3,200,000	3,300,000	13,100,000	13,400,000
Q4 2021	4,000,000	3,900,000	17,100,000	17,300,000
Q1 2022	2,000,000	2,000,000	19,100,000	19,300,000
Q2 2022	2,300,000	2,400,000	21,400,000	21,700,000
Q3 2022	3,000,000	3,300,000	24,400,000	25,000,000
Q4 2022	6,600,000	7,100,000	31,000,000	32,100,000
Q1 2023	5,000,000	6,300,000	36,000,000	38,400,000

Like I said at the start, this is all old news. Nothing new here at all. I've seen some of the posts here still claiming Xbox is <30M and like I've said before, you don't know what you're talking about.

What say you K KeplerL2

 

[KeplerL2]

What say you K KeplerL2

 

[Unknown?]

Because it's not about sales at all.
It's about having the most powerful console, even if it only has a paper launch, so they have a few crumbs to feed shareholders.

Ah the 3DO approach.

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

I was thinking his spin is real

 

[GOKUSSJ2]

Since when did Ampere become more accurate than someone who has actually worked directly at Microsoft?

 

[Hyper_hyper]

and 13.8M end of June 2022. 18 months (6 quarters) in would be +12M.

Since when is by your logic +12 million is almost 2 million difference? You've never used that logic. If that is true, MS employee would say "more than13.5 mil."?

 

[Ellis]

Nothing new here at all. I've seen some of the posts here still claiming Xbox is <30M and like I've said before, you don't know what you're talking about.

A more realistic number would be <20.

They haven't sold close to 30. The system was pretty much dead as soon as PS5 no longer had supply issues.

 

[Sohurmk833]

Microsoft would have never pulled the plug on Xbox as hard and as merciless as they did if it sold anywhere close to 40 million units.

 

[bitbydeath]

I've seen some of the posts here still claiming Xbox is <30M and like I've said before, you don't know what you're talking about.

Over 30M isn't even in question. It's likely lower than 25M. Even under 20M is possible.
They sold 2M in 2024, and a whole lot less in 2025.

Feb 2024 is when they announced four games going to PlayStation which means 2023 numbers would have been terrible to make that change too.

Before that hardware was difficult to build due to COVID.

 

[Mr_JPF]

Microsoft would have never pulled the plug on Xbox as hard and as merciless as they did if it sold anywhere close to 40 million units.

Microsoft was ready to pull the plug on Xbox back in the Xbox One days ( a console that sold 59 million units ), the only reason they didn't was because of Gamepass. What makes you think that the Series X/S selling 40 million units would magically save the Xbox brand from being cancelled by Microsoft ?

 

[m14]

A more realistic number would be <20.

They haven't sold close to 30. The system was pretty much dead as soon as PS5 no longer had supply issues.

I think I'll trust Welfare and his detailed data instead, thanks.

 

[Ellis]

I think I'll trust Welfare and his detailed data instead, thanks.

I'm shocked!

A detailed post that is completely void of all merit as the data is incorrect.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

I'm shocked!

A detailed post that is completely void of all merit as the data is incorrect.

I missed the data showing the sub 20 mil as you suggest, can you relink that as I don't want to wade through this whole thread

 

[m14]

I'm shocked!

A detailed post that is completely void of all merit as the data is incorrect.

There's nothing wrong with the data. Some posters simply refuse to accept it because it contradicts their cherished narratives.
Meanwhile, you are bringing precisely zero data to the table. Par for the course from a poster who believes Sony have known nothing but success in gaming since 1994.

 

[Ellis]

There's nothing wrong with the data. Some posters simply refuse to accept it because it contradicts their cherished narratives.
Meanwhile, you are bringing precisely zero data to the table. Par for the course from a poster who believes Sony have known nothing but success in gaming since 1994.

You want me to bring fake data to the table too ? What would the point of that be.

There is zero legitimate data that backs up 30+ million sales. Zero.

There's also zero data that confirms sub 20 million. There is however something called reality, and that reality shows 20 being far more realistic than 30.

 

[onQ123]

All this could be solved if MS gave an update on the numbers.

I'm pretty sure if the estimates were below the actual numbers someone would speak up .

 

[m14]

You want me to bring fake data to the table too ? What would the point of that be.

Welfare 's data isn't fake and he remains a hugely respected source.

There's also zero data that confirms sub 20 million.

It's not the first time in this thread you've pulled numbers out of nowhere. Let's remind ourselves of your recent evisceration:

T

News Hardware  Post in thread 'Xbox Series X | S Estimated to Have Sold 37 million units (may be < 30m)'

Jan 15, 2026

Thousands. People build their own, or use smaller business websites that will do it for cheaper than the likes of ASUS.

If they were sold into the millions, then you'd see and hear more from them.

So you basically made things up, you have no proof.

I can't find the link, but I saw somewhere that prebuilts sell about 10 to 12 million units a year globally. That's a very crowded field of competitors though. Dozens beyond the typical Asus, MSI, Lenovo OEMs. So yeah.....thousands per is probably accurate on average.

This is the same business model for handhelds and other...

• Tobimacoss

• 
• 

and that reality shows 20 being far more realistic than 30.

It's your subjective reality as a PlayStation superfan, which you simply cannot back up with actual hard data.

 

[Sohurmk833]

Microsoft was ready to pull the plug on Xbox back in the Xbox One days ( a console that sold 59 million units ), the only reason they didn't was because of Gamepass. What makes you think that the Series X/S selling 40 million units would magically save the Xbox brand from being cancelled by Microsoft

There is zero proof that this actually happened.

40 million is already 2/3 of the One and this gen is far from over. If MS managed to sell 40 million at this point they'd easily hit 50+ million lifetime. That's close to 50 million paying customers.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Microsoft would have never pulled the plug on Xbox as hard and as merciless as they did if it sold anywhere close to 40 million units.

That part.

Their attachment rates and lack of Game Pass growth for several years now shows they're not in the 40m realm.

 

[Darkness_Arises]

Welfare 's data isn't fake and he remains a hugely respected source.


It's not the first time in this thread you've pulled numbers out of nowhere. Let's remind ourselves of your recent evisceration:

T

News Hardware  Post in thread 'Xbox Series X | S Estimated to Have Sold 37 million units (may be < 30m)'

Jan 15, 2026

Thousands. People build their own, or use smaller business websites that will do it for cheaper than the likes of ASUS.

If they were sold into the millions, then you'd see and hear more from them.

So you basically made things up, you have no proof.

I can't find the link, but I saw somewhere that prebuilts sell about 10 to 12 million units a year globally. That's a very crowded field of competitors though. Dozens beyond the typical Asus, MSI, Lenovo OEMs. So yeah.....thousands per is probably accurate on average.

This is the same business model for handhelds and other...

• Tobimacoss

• 
• 

It's your subjective reality as a PlayStation superfan, which you simply cannot back up with actual hard data.

He's as much of a respected source as Jez is a titan of games journalism.

 

[Mr Moose]

Welfare 's data isn't fake and he remains a hugely respected source.

Estimates are, in fact, fake data.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Estimates are, in fact, fake data.

We have had this thread running since July and now 17 pages long arguing over made up numbers simply because someone feels they are more right

 

[The Mad Draklor]

I think

That's the funniest part. You don't.