reinking
Gold Member
...and none of it matters. We can argue about what led to the console being in the state it is in, but it is here regardless of 20 million or 40 million units sold.
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Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
Xbox Series X | S Estimated to Have Sold 37 million units (may be < 30m)
- Thread starter Daniel_Mallorca1985
- Start date
- News Hardware
demigod
Member
Did you get any numbers from your sources?
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
nahh
Curiously you don't seem to take issue with
Ellis
pulling random numbers out of his "I <3 PlayStation" lunchbox. Wonder why? 
hououinkyouma00
Member
Nicely said.
The exact numbers don't matter. The console is a failure in both the eyes of Microsoft and the consumers (Microsoft can act like they are happy with it, but actions speak louder than words and if Microsoft has taught us anything this generation it's to not believe a single word that comes out of executive's mouths) and 40M versus 30M wouldn't change much especially when your main competitor is at what? 84M?
Microsoft gave up which is a travesty IMO.
The Mad Draklor
Member
mayham2199
Member
This is my thoughts as well. 20, 40 doesn't really matter. Whatever the number is wasnt enough for MS.
bitbydeath
Member
So, that's basically end of Covid pandemic when Xbox hardware sales totally collapsed from 2022 and onwards
I think some people here missed this update.
As I said before, numbers were low, likely due to Covid.
2023 is the year prior to announcing four games, so it may have improved or it may have stayed the same, it's not an action taken if it improved drastically.
2024 = 2M
2025, Xbox left a number of stores around the world.
If we add the 12M (2000-2022 May) + 2M (2024) + 1M (2025)
That's 14M, with just 19months of data missing.
Imagining they did 6M (total 20M) in that time is possible. It could even go lower.
11M (Total 25M) is also possible but is the absolute high-end given their other known numbers..
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Insanemaelstrom
Member
Personally, I find that post to be rather vague.
1. The number might mean sold(directly to consumers) or sold(to retailers).
2. Also, the wording seems weird to me, like technically even Xbox one units sold would count as "units" sold in first 18 months. They don't explicitly state that it is only Xbox series consoles sold. They also don't mention whether the 18 months are calender years or lifecycle either.
Probably done due to NDA and you want the best possible number on your resume, but still the wording is rather deliberately vague and ambiguous
Baemono
Member
The only official number we had was 21+ million in 2023 during a Brazilian gaming fest. Was it as of December 31st, 2022 ? Nobody knows.
But with the sales colapsing after 2022, and selling less each year, far from the 2022 peak of 9 million, I don't see how they could reach 38 million by the end of 2025.
But with the sales colapsing after 2022, and selling less each year, far from the 2022 peak of 9 million, I don't see how they could reach 38 million by the end of 2025.
bitbydeath
Member
It specifically calls that out.
It states 18 months from launch.
This one I can give you, so we can inflate the numbers by another 1-2M to account for it.
18M > 27M
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
Baemono
Member
Yes, this one. We also had data during the European trial I believe, where they compared to PS4 and PS5 console sales taken from an analyst firm (which was odd as Sony disclose their sales figures, and that the analysts' numbers were off), but I cannot find it
Insanemaelstrom
Member
The distinction and ambiguity I am mentioning is because there are two seperate statements in this, "Hardware & Devices: Led cross functional go-to-market execution for Xbox Series X|S global launch, navigating supply chain constraints while achieving 12M+ units sold in first 18 months across 40+ countries." The first one talks specifically about Xbox series launch, the second one which is about dealing with supply chain constraints intentionally mentions only "units" without specifying if it's only series consoles. The second statement can easily also mean, "in the calender year from series launch, we dealt with supply constraints and sold 12 million console units" with console units not explicitly removing the previous gen consoles. I have seen people make similar wordplay, especially on LinkedIn, and I might be overthinking it, but the statement just seems a bit vague to me. Just be ause the first statement mentions series consoles, doesn't mean the second statement is only about the series consoles.
I think it is likely "sold to retailers" so overall sales can be lower. On LinkedIn, you want to give out the best possible number, so it only makes sense to talk about sold to retailers, which would be a higher number than sold to consumers.
bitbydeath
Member
Even if we use that, add in 2024 and 2025 that'd be around 24M.
That just leaves 2023, be it 5 months remaining (from when they announced 21M) or 12 months if we be extra generous to include the whole year.
It seems unlikely they got a lot more sales in that remaining small amount of time, the year prior to announcing games going to PlayStation.
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Edmund
is waiting for Starfield 7
The only reason MS doesn't provide numbers of series SX sold is because they are fucking embarrassed.
Imagine if your kid got an F for all his exams and his future is flipping burgers in McDonald's. You'd definitely remain silent too, just like MS.
Doesn't matter if it's 20m or inflated to 38m, it's still an embarrassing figure hence MS keeping it a secret.
Imagine if your kid got an F for all his exams and his future is flipping burgers in McDonald's. You'd definitely remain silent too, just like MS.
Doesn't matter if it's 20m or inflated to 38m, it's still an embarrassing figure hence MS keeping it a secret.
Tobimacoss
Member
So it's safe to say 25+ million?
Before the further arguing, let's at least settle for a 25 million minimum.
The number I find more interesting was the 22 million xCloud entitlements by end of 2022. And xCloud has grown massively since then, just 45% in 2025 alone. So likely at least 35-40 million users have tried xCloud at any given point.
YeulEmeralda
Linux User
Honestly people have been saying it before that even happened. Pretty sureHeisenbergFX4 said it before that if not him than Jez. There's just people out there who can't wrap their head around a company releasing a console and not really trying to outsell their competitors. It's a new concept that apparently has a lot of people refusing to accept it.
Haha you have walked into my trap I wasn't even trying to win!
bitbydeath
Member
25M does seem like the sweet spot from what we know.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
You are 100% correct it doesn't matter even if it was 37 mil at the time of the first post because even that was very bad.
I was just letting people try to convince others it was 20 or maybe even under for reasons when I knew it was revealed to be at 21 mil in June of 2023
Welfare
Member
It's crazy how Xbox's CSA from 2022 that was used in the FTC trial is now "incorrect data". Statements from Jim Ryan and Satya Nadella don't matter. What's the point of this thread remaining open if internal data from Microsoft is ignored? Is it the math, you guys don't like equations and go glass-eyed when you read them?
In that case, Xbox is any number you want it to be if it makes you feel better.
Here's something else though for you all to chew on that I think no one picked up on when the leaks occurred that I found while looking for the 3 month bit, Jim Ryan said PS5 had between 60-65% market share in his deposition (RX 5059), taking place April 6, 2023
It's either as of December 2022 or March 2023. As this was said April 6, it's possibly too soon for a Q1 2023 report?
If it's sell through, Sony estimates Xbox is between 16.7M and 20.7M for Q4 2022, or between 19.4M and 24.0M for Q1 2023.
If it's shipments, Xbox is between 17.3M and 21.4M for Q4 2022, and between 20.7M and 25.6M for Q1 2023.
Microsoft in early 2023 said XBS was +21M. Ampere had sell through at 19.5M in Q4 2022 and then 21.1M in Q1 2023. IDG had it near 20M in Q4 2022. It's probably more likely for Ryan to be referring to sell through estimates in this deposition since they would get Xbox data from NPD, GFK, etc and wouldn't need to estimate shipments.
Sell through somewhere above 10M in 2021 and then near 2M in Q1 2022 = +12M.
In that case, Xbox is any number you want it to be if it makes you feel better.
Here's something else though for you all to chew on that I think no one picked up on when the leaks occurred that I found while looking for the 3 month bit, Jim Ryan said PS5 had between 60-65% market share in his deposition (RX 5059), taking place April 6, 2023
It's either as of December 2022 or March 2023. As this was said April 6, it's possibly too soon for a Q1 2023 report?
| Quarter | Sell Through | Shipments | Sell Through LTD | Shipments LTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 6,600,000 | 7,100,000 | 31,000,000 | 32,100,000 |
| Q1 2023 | 5,000,000 | 6,300,000 | 36,000,000 | 38,400,000 |
If it's sell through, Sony estimates Xbox is between 16.7M and 20.7M for Q4 2022, or between 19.4M and 24.0M for Q1 2023.
If it's shipments, Xbox is between 17.3M and 21.4M for Q4 2022, and between 20.7M and 25.6M for Q1 2023.
Microsoft in early 2023 said XBS was +21M. Ampere had sell through at 19.5M in Q4 2022 and then 21.1M in Q1 2023. IDG had it near 20M in Q4 2022. It's probably more likely for Ryan to be referring to sell through estimates in this deposition since they would get Xbox data from NPD, GFK, etc and wouldn't need to estimate shipments.
18 months would just be 6 quarters which puts it at March 2022. XBS sell through is between 12.0M and 12.9M as of March 2022 which isn't a new range.
Literally impossible, XBS sold 2.76M in the US and 460K in the UK, that's 3.2M with just 2 nations in 2024. XBS was also +21M early 2023. Do better next time though, you were close.
Who said Ampere were more accurate? Their data lines up perfectly with this data. Xbox Series was >10M end of 2021 due to selling faster than XB1 and then sold near 2M in Q1 2022 due to outselling PS5 in the US, Canada, UK, and Western Europe, while not doing so in the other regions and only being ahead of PS5 for 1 quarter in 2021.
Sell through somewhere above 10M in 2021 and then near 2M in Q1 2022 = +12M.
Can you link that deposition because it sounds like he was talking about 2021.
bitbydeath
Member
*July 2023, not exactly early 2023.
The other data points are your personal estimates. The 2M figure came from Take-Two.
Xbox Reportedly Sold Just 2 Million Consoles Last Year
A new report by Take-Two reveals that Xbox has reportedly only managed to roll over 2 million consoles in the last 12 months.
tech4gamers.com
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
That is a huge drop off as of July 2023 they had sold 21 mil according to the ID Xbox slide and that report from Take Two says Xbox had sold 29 mil by the end of Sept 2024 but only 2 mil for the year to that point*July 2023, not exactly early 2023.
The other data points are your personal estimates. The 2M figure came from Take-Two.
Xbox Reportedly Sold Just 2 Million Consoles Last Year
A new report by Take-Two reveals that Xbox has reportedly only managed to roll over 2 million consoles in the last 12 months.
So they sold 6 mil units the last half of 2023 only then 2 mil for most of all of 2024
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
That +12M figure was sell through. We already have shipment leaks from back in 2023, what I'm about to post is old news by 2 years. Ampere had sell through at 10.5M end of 2021 and 13.8M end of June 2022. 18 months (6 quarters) in would be +12M.
Source: FTC leak file multiple (CSA for FY22 was attached to a few files, PX 1114 is one of them)
Xbox Series Market Share FY21 Q1-3: 37%
Xbox Series Market Share FY22 Q1-3: 46% (+9)
Microsoft FY21: July 2020 - June 2021
Microsoft FY22: July 2021 - June 2022
PS5 Shipments in Microsoft's FY21 Q1-3: 7.8M (4.5M + 3.3M)
PS5 Shipments in Microsoft's FY22 Q1-3: 9.2M (3.3M + 3.9M +2.0M)
Gen 9 FY21 Q1-3: ~12.38M (PS5 7.8M / 0.63)
Gen 9 FY22 Q1-3: ~17.04M (PS5 9.2M / 0.54)
Xbox Series FY21 Q1-3: ~4.58M (12.38M - PS5 7.8M)
Xbox Series FY22 Q1-3: ~7.84M (17.04M - PS5 9.2M)
Xbox Series FY22 Q3 LTD: ~12.4M, missing FY21 Q4
Literal inarguable data above this comment, comes from Xbox internal slides leaked in the FTC files. Anything under this comment is almost guaranteed to be the case based on statements and revenue.
Phil Spencer says the target for FY22 is 9.6M consoles (Source: FTC leak file PX 1145)
We know they shipped 7.8M in FY22 Q1-3, leaving 1.8M for Q4 to hit 9.6M
Jim Ryan confirmed Xbox outsold PS5 for a 3 month period in 2021, only quarter that would make sense is holiday 2021 (based on Satya Nadella saying Xbox took share from Sony in FY22 Q2 and Q3), where PS5 shipped 3.9M, meaning XBS shipped at least 4.0M that quarter.
Satya Nadella
Jim Ryan (RX 5059)
7.8M - 4.0M = 3.8M for Q1+Q3 FY22
3.8M / 2 = 1.9M
FY22 Hardware revenue
Q1 $711,000,000 / ~1.9M
Q2 $1,587,000,000 / ~4.0M
Q3 $725,000,000 / ~1.9M
Q4 $685,000,000 / ?
Xbox > PS5 for a quarter in 2021, not above PS5 in any other quarter, and the hardware revenue all line up with the 7.8M. Hardware revenue difference between Q1 and Q3 is 2% and Q2 is ~2.2x them. Q4 is ~5% less than Q1 and Q3, and 57% less than Q2. So 1.8M absolutely works here (-5% vs 1.9M, -55% vs 4.0M), everything points to Xbox hitting that 9.6M target for FY22. Only quarter missing would be FY21 Q4 (April - June 2021), so here's the hardware revenue for that FY
FY21 Hardware revenue
Q1 $267,000,000 / (Xbox One)
Q2 $1,526,000,000 / (Xbox One + Xbox Series)
Q3 $637,000,000 / (Xbox Series, this quarter + previous must equal 4.6M)
Q4 $767,000,000 / ?
A lowball for FY21 Q4 would be 1.8M since it's the highest non holiday revenue, just have it below 1.9M
FY21 Q2 $1,526,000,000 / ~3.0M / ~3.0M
FY21 Q3 $637,000,000 / ~1.6M / 4.6M
FY21 Q4 $767,000,000 / ~1.8M / ~6.4M
FY22 Q1 $711,000,000 / ~1.9M / ~8.3M
FY22 Q2 $1,587,000,000 / ~4.0M / ~12.3M (Stated to be fastest selling Xbox (>Xbox One))
FY22 Q3 $725,000,000 / ~1.9M / ~14.2M
FY22 Q4 $685,000,000 / ~1.8M / ~16.0M (Stated again to be fastest selling Xbox (>Xbox One))
Also, we have direct from Sony the PS5 sell through per quarter up to March 2023 and sell through was equal to shipments until Q4 2022, in case the argument comes up that Xbox > PS5 was a sell through statement. These also line up perfectly with Satya's comment about taking share for two quarters in a row and Jim saying Xbox only materially outsold PS5 for 3 months in 2021. >4M for holiday 2021 and almost 2.0M in Q1 2022 matches with the above.
Quarter Sell Through Shipments Sell Through LTD Shipments LTD Q4 2020 4,400,000 4,500,000 4,400,000 4,500,000 Q1 2021 3,200,000 3,300,000 7,600,000 7,800,000 Q2 2021 2,300,000 2,300,000 9,900,000 10,100,000 Q3 2021 3,200,000 3,300,000 13,100,000 13,400,000 Q4 2021 4,000,000 3,900,000 17,100,000 17,300,000 Q1 2022 2,000,000 2,000,000 19,100,000 19,300,000 Q2 2022 2,300,000 2,400,000 21,400,000 21,700,000 Q3 2022 3,000,000 3,300,000 24,400,000 25,000,000 Q4 2022 6,600,000 7,100,000 31,000,000 32,100,000 Q1 2023 5,000,000 6,300,000 36,000,000 38,400,000
Like I said at the start, this is all old news. Nothing new here at all. I've seen some of the posts here still claiming Xbox is <30M and like I've said before, you don't know what you're talking about.
You wrote all this for a console that won't even sell 2 million units this year, when the gen will still be good for another 3 years.
And your numbers are still wrong.
That's sad, bro.
bitbydeath
Member
Good call, I wasn't aware of that part.That is a huge drop off as of July 2023 they had sold 21 mil according to the ID Xbox slide and that report from Take Two says Xbox had sold 29 mil by the end of Sept 2024 but only 2 mil for the year to that point
So they sold 6 mil units the last half of 2023 only then 2 mil for most of all of 2024
Tobimacoss
Member
Does this mean the number is at least 30+ million?That is a huge drop off as of July 2023 they had sold 21 mil according to the ID Xbox slide and that report from Take Two says Xbox had sold 29 mil by the end of Sept 2024 but only 2 mil for the year to that point
So they sold 6 mil units the last half of 2023 only then 2 mil for most of all of 2024
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
If they were at 29 million by the end of Sept 2024 it would be shockingly bad if they haven't sold 1 million units in what 16 months or so?
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
I find it interesting that the first 36 months the Series consoles sold 27 million units then fell off a cliff ever since
bender
What time is it?
Topher
Identifies as young
Hmmm, seems like that happened right around Phil Spencer's "just four games" announcement
DeltaPolarBear
Member
If we know Xbox Series sold only 27M in 2023 (29-2=27), and 2024 was 2 million sold at Nov, followed by THIS tells us that the 2025 sales was a 70% drop from 2024...
Then we are looking at 2025 bringing in less than a million Xbox Series sold.
There is definitely a mathematical possibility that the total right now is not quite 30million. And if the decay rate continues then it would NEVER reach 30 million.
Then we are looking at 2025 bringing in less than a million Xbox Series sold.
There is definitely a mathematical possibility that the total right now is not quite 30million. And if the decay rate continues then it would NEVER reach 30 million.
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Tobimacoss
Member
So we have established that the sales are 30+ million, and probably 32+ million.
And I find it kind of funny
I find it kind of sad
The dreams in which I'm posting
Are the best I've ever had
I find it hard to tell you
I find it hard to take
When people run in circles, it's a very, very
Mad thread, mad thread
It was going to happen regardless as Cloud Gaming grows, which makes new hardware irrelevant for many of the userbase.
Topher
Identifies as young
For some, perhaps. Either way, nothing suggesting it has had an impact on Xbox sales so far.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
Whatever started it it seems all of 2024 started the death spiral
DeltaPolarBear
Member
You really believe that? When MS removed Gamepass growth from Nadella's Performance based pay targets in 2023?
bender
What time is it?
The well deserved curse from closing Tango Game Works.
Insanemaelstrom
Member
Personally I think the death spiral started in q2 2023, that's when ms started getting double digit decline yoy. 2024 though, was a shock. The decline not only continued, it somehow got worse.
Tobimacoss
Member
So MS lets Xbox One users stream current gen games via xCloud, unlike Sony who doesn't let PS4 users do the same. Xbox One sold 58 million right? If Series Consoles sold 32 million, do you think the remaining Xbox one users all left the ecosystem? There are still 40-50 million active PS4 users.
MS is training those Xbox One users to play via Cloud Gaming. Any Xbox One user who plays like that is a Series sale lost. Similarly, it will be the case with Magnus, as many Series owners may not see a need to upgrade if they can stream Magnus games. Series hardware can actually decode up to 8k/60 AV1 streams. Most games will be cross gen for long time to come regardless.
xCloud and Gamepass are intertwined yes, however xCloud growth is not completely linked to Gamepass growth. FortNite has been streamable on xCloud since May 2022, requires no Gamepass subscription. MS is about to launch the free Ad-supported xcloud tier really soon, where users can simply Buy and Stream Cloud Enabled games. No hardware, or Gamepass subscription needed. Basically reducing the barrier to entry to $0.
Last reported number for xCloud end of first quarter fiscal year 2026 was 150 million hours per quarter. Watch the next quarterly number, I bet it will have risen to 200-250 million hours. MS likely target is to get that number to 500 million to 1 billion hours.
DeltaPolarBear
Member
Except no one need to use the streaming service because everything already run Fortnite.
Free games already have low barrier of entry. They can run fortnite with hardware they already own. You are not giving us a reason why anyone would pick the MS service at all. You are not offering any benefits.
And if you think running ads is a benefit? You are insane.
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GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
They beat N64 and could come close to matching SNES. Not that bad honestly.
Klayzer
Member
I'm always amazed, how far some will go to put a positive spin on Microsoft's gaming related decisions.
MisterXDTV
Member
What difference does it make at this point?
Since PS5 became ACTUALLY available to buy, nobody cared...
COVID-19 was a miracle to them in retrospective
Since PS5 became ACTUALLY available to buy, nobody cared...
COVID-19 was a miracle to them in retrospective
jm89
Member
Mozza
Member
What sort of figure are we thinking here?
Sooner
Member
Because PS5 was impossible to find for a very long time between the pandemic and the chip shortages. People spent months/over a year looking for one and eventually settled for the only new-gen console they could find.
Once PS5 supply finally caught up is when Series sales halted.
DeltaPolarBear
Member
Take-Two told us that Xbox Series sold 27million units total in 2023, and 2 million in 2024 at November. Mat Piscatella told IGN that Xbox Series sales dropped 70% between 2024 to 2025 year over year.
The only unknown here is the 1 month missing in the Dec of 2024. But unless there was a magical bump in December 2024, Xbox Series didn't reach 30million sales at the end of 2025.
And if there was to be another 70% drop in 2026, there wouldn't be enough sales left to EVER reach 30million.
I mentioned before, but i doubt Xbox Series is still in production. There is not enough demand to make any more.
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