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Circana Jan 2026: #1 PS5 (-17%), #2 NSW2, #3 XBS (-27%), #4 NSW (-79%) / #1 CoD BO7, #11 Code Vein 2

With the PS6 Portable, i think Sony is taking the right steps. But looking at the panorama the Switch 2 is going to win the 2026 WW sales.
Switch 2 could win ww sales for 2026 but will prob take serious price cut/ambassador program outside Japan to do it.
 
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yea but sony is still doing great in europe while nintendo is fading in its strongest market, so these sales should be very concerning for nintendo.
Everybody is fading worldwide…. No only US… Also you are comparing SW2 to SW1 which everyone is expecting the SW2 fall under at some point.
 
Once again, why do they use purple for Xbox and not green?

Wayment, I know why.

Danger 5 Laughing GIF
 
Everybody is fading worldwide…. No only US… Also you are comparing SW2 to SW1 which everyone is expecting the SW2 fall under at some point.
PS5 is old at this point so it's expected to start fading, and it's still doing damn good in europe. not saying sw2 is gonna fail it will probably do 95 million imo, but those sales in the US are not good for the past 3 months.
 
I really think they just made Switch 2 way too similar to the first one. There's barely any difference between the two. They even look pretty much identical, physically. Even with the improved specs, none of the Switch 2 only exclusives look impressive. And with most people who have interest in big AAA third party games already owning a console that plays them much better, there's just not much incentive to buy this thing at 500 bucks. Mine has been collecting dust since DK Bananza.

Without Japan's obsession with handhelds and weird games about controlling trains 🚂 Nintendo would be in a lot of trouble. This gen will still be very successful for them but it's not gonna set the world on fire like the OG Switch did, outside of Japan I guess.
 
It's mindblowing that people still today don't truly understand the massive scale that GTA6 will sale at yet. It's hard for many to understand. Like when you learn how small the Earth is in our own Solar System.
I've seen this a lot on GAF. People here are seriously underestimating the impact GTA6 will have on the market. I know so many people personally that are still on PS4s waiting for GTA6 to release. They don't give a shit about any other game but GTA and are waiting just for GTA6 to release before the pull the trigger for current gen. Seen a lot of people here tell me that the PS5 is lagging 2 million units behind the PS4 launch aligned and it won't catch up despite GTA6 almost being a de facto exclusive for the console this holiday. This forum is so out of touch with the mainstream it's insane lol.
 
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PS5 is old at this point so it's expected to start fading, and it's still doing damn good in europe. not saying sw2 is gonna fail it will probably do 95 million imo, but those sales in the US are not good for the past 3 months.
Don't know how long have you been tracking sales in the video game industry, i have been doing this from around 1998. Is NOT the norm for a Nintendo console to sell better than the current PS console on the market first year, in fact the SW2 is the first console that beat a Sony console in their first year. + The first year is not the peak year for any Nintendo console. I recommend to you to check the history data before to elaborate some arguments.
 
I've seen this a lot on GAF. People here are seriously underestimating the impact GTA6 will have on the market. I know so many people personally that are still on PS4s waiting for GTA6 to release. They don't give a shit about any other game but GTA and are waiting just for GTA6 to release before the pullt he trigger for next gen. Seen a lot of people here tell me that the PS5 is lagging 2 million units behind the PS4 launch aligned and it will catch up despite GTA6 almost being a de facto exclusive for the console this holiday. This forum is so out of touch with the mainstream it's insane lol.

Did you mean to say "and it won't catch up"?
 
State of the market

Total January projected spending across video game hardware, content and accessories grew 3% when compared to a year ago, to $4.7 billion. A 23% increase in subscription spending and 16% growth in hardware fueled the gain.

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Software
January video game content spending grew 3% when compared to a year ago, to $4.3B. A 23% increase in subscription spending combined with slight gains across Console (+2%) and PC (+1%) content to offset a small drop in mobile (-1%) (mobile source: Sensor Tower).

Final Fantasy VII: Remake jumped to 9th in January from 225th in December due to the release of the Switch 2 and Xbox Series versions of the game during the month.

Hardware
Hardware spending increased 16% when compared to a year ago, reaching $248M. Nintendo Switch 2 spending was able to offset year-on-year declines seen across PlayStation 5 (-17%), Xbox Series (-27%) and Switch (-79%). Despite sales falling compared to a year ago, PlayStation 5 led the hardware market in both unit and dollar sales during January 2026. Nintendo Switch 2 ranked 2nd across both measures.

Mobile
Sensor Tower reports the top 10 mobile games in Jan and rank chg from Dec as: MONOPOLY GO!, Royal Match (+1), Last War: Survival (-1), Candy Crush Saga, Gossip Harbor (+1), Kingshot (-1), Whiteout Survival (+1), Royal Kingdom (+1), Township (+2) and Free Fire (+2).

"The Clash Royale show seems to be officially over, as the game falls out of the top 10 ranking with -49% revenue over Dec 2025," said Sam Aune of Sensor Tower. "The game to keep your eye on is Loom Games' Pixel Flow!, which grew IAP revenue 79% month over month."

Accessories
Accessories spending dipped 5% compared to a year ago, to $185M This is the lowest January accessories spend total since January 2020 ($143M).

Software Charts
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Rankings
Units: PS5 > NS2 > XBS > NSW > NEX > PC Portable
Revenue: PS5 > NS2 > XBS > PC Portable > NEX > NSW

Credits: Piscatella for the data, and Welfare for the thread formatting.
Nothing To See Here GIF by Giphy QA
 
Remember costco had the switch 2 bundle for $375 IIRC.
it was sam's club in a few stores probably helped boost a few thousand units in sales.
Don't know how long have you been tracking sales in the video game industry, i have been doing this from around 1998. Is NOT the norm for a Nintendo console to sell better than the current PS console on the market first year, in fact the SW2 is the first console that beat a Sony console in their first year. + The first year is not the peak year for any Nintendo console. I recommend to you to check the history data before to elaborate some arguments.
2 things, the ps5 would be doing ps4 2019 sales which saw a huge decline compared to 2018 so it would be like comparing switch 1 2018 to ps4 2019. another thing is monthly sales are just not good after october
 
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it was sam's club in a few stores probably helped boost a few thousand units in sales.

2 things, the ps5 would be doing ps4 2019 sales which saw a huge decline compared to 2018 so it would be like comparing switch 1 2018 to ps4 2019. another thing is monthly sales are just not good after october
Why you think is that happening? And compared to what?
 
Why you think is that happening? And compared to what?
November switch 2 did the worst numbers ever for a successful nintendo console, December was also very weak for a successful Nintendo console, and now January is bad 40k less then then switch 1 first year and 50k more then switch 1 last year and worse then switch 2024. so just compared to switch 1 or even ps4.

This happening cause too much choice for entertainment, too much games to play and consoles are expensive.
 
November switch 2 did the worst numbers ever for a successful nintendo console, December was also very weak for a successful Nintendo console, and now January is bad 40k less then then switch 1 first year and 50k more then switch 1 last year and worse then switch 2024. so just compared to switch 1 or even ps4.

This happening cause too much choice for entertainment, too much games to play and consoles are expensive.
I wasn't paying attention back then but presumably switch 1 was also supply limited early on?
 
November switch 2 did the worst numbers ever for a successful nintendo console, December was also very weak for a successful Nintendo console, and now January is bad 40k less then then switch 1 first year and 50k more then switch 1 last year and worse then switch 2024. so just compared to switch 1 or even ps4.

This happening cause too much choice for entertainment, too much games to play and consoles are expensive.
That's the answer… Forget about the rest. Consoles are way more expensive now. But the fact that the Switch 2 at $449 is outselling the Switch 1 at $299 in the same period of time (With only MKW as system seller) is remarkable and unexpected. Of course that pace is unsustainable and that the sales are going to fall behind the Switch 1 eventually is expected by everyone that has a brain. You are just pointing obvious things.
 
This. I coach my sons middle school basketball team and it's all the same thing.

I will say, Nintendo needs to have some banger directs coming up, because nothing as of now on the horizon is going to move units to a large degree in the foreseeable future.

And yes, I know Nintendo is still on track to hit their revised forecast of 19 million units.
Doesn't matter though. Unless it's some new GaaS/social experience, you're not gonna peel those kids off Roblox

They don't give a fuck about Mario, Zelda, or any of the cornerstone Nintendo IPs. I went to a midnight launch at GS for the switch 2, about 70 people in line. There was no one there under 25, and not a lot of parents buying for their kid - I'd say 90% were between 25-35 buying units for themselves.
 
That's the answer… Forget about the rest. Consoles are way more expensive now. But the fact that the Switch 2 at $449 is outselling the Switch 1 at $299 in the same period of time (With only MKW as system seller) is remarkable and unexpected. Of course that pace is unsustainable and that the sales are going to fall behind the Switch 1 eventually is expected by everyone that has a brain. You are just pointing obvious things.
I disagree here. for one switch 1 released in 2017 in a time where inflation was very low and average pay was much lower then now. switch 1 and 2 are close when adjusting the price for inflation. it should be 399$ but nintendo wants to make profit. I don't see anything remarkable with switch 2 sales because you are forgetting switch 1 built a massive user base so you expected many of those to be day 1 owners, and in this day and age with social media and how viral things are, we can expect sales to be front loaded especially with series x being sold out for a good year and ps5 for 2 years, so we knew switch 2 was gonna be a monster out the gate especially with no stock issues.
 
2 month and Prime 4 already out of the top 20, yikes.

IMO the core audience is getting the Switch 2 preventing a price increase, but that is just me.

Record profits and Sony closing down Bluepoint Games, not good.

We'll see when the systems increase in price this year.
 
I disagree here. for one switch 1 released in 2017 in a time where inflation was very low and average pay was much lower then now. switch 1 and 2 are close when adjusting the price for inflation. it should be 399$ but nintendo wants to make profit. I don't see anything remarkable with switch 2 sales because you are forgetting switch 1 built a massive user base so you expected many of those to be day 1 owners, and in this day and age with social media and how viral things are, we can expect sales to be front loaded especially with series x being sold out for a good year and ps5 for 2 years, so we knew switch 2 was gonna be a monster out the gate especially with no stock issues.
What… Buying a Switch 1 at launch was more accessible than buying a Switch 2 right now… What are you talking about?
 
What… Buying a Switch 1 at launch was more accessible than buying a Switch 2 right now… What are you talking about?
what do you mean? switch 1 was sold out till October and if you are talking about price my main point that switch 2 price is close to swith 1 when you account for inflation. its like ps4 for 2017 and 2018 where ps4 249$ and holiday was 199$ those days are gone.
 
Playstation has essentially every game that matters except for Nintendo exclusives. It's whatever you want it to be.

This is like calling Spotify "slop." I don't understand, and I don't think you do, either.

No it does not - PS is still limited compared to Steam. VERY limited. Steam on the other hand - has everything PS has + so much niche stuff to cover everything an genre hardcore could want (rts, grand startegy, early access fps, wargaming, whatever really) + All that typical AAA/AA PS stuff

Playstation gets a very small part of Steam and most consumers just use it for Fortnite CoD and FIFA (looking at charts). So Playstation is mostly for slop, imo yes
 
I don't see any slop just popular games and fun multiplayer games. i'm not even a big fan of them as i mostly just like fromsoftware games and a few sony exclusives.
You're right, PlayStation gets almost all the popular games, and it runs them at settings better than what 70% of PC players use.

There's a reason it's so popular, no matter how much the usual crowd here complains.
 
Makes me think there must be some bullshit corporate social ladder going on where the people who lick Herman's arse get to survive while anyone that doesn't gets canned.

How the fuck do you shut down bluepoint but keep media molecule around? It makes no fucking sense.

I'm not gonna lie, I'm still glad MM are around because they are clearly creative and have some great ideas i.e Dreams. Dreams should've been so much more than it turned out to be, and yeah MM deserve some of the blame (they took way too long to release the game, showed it too early), but I think SIE management also deserve a big part of the blame.

At least MM have another shot to make something work. I'm just afraid it'll be completely "safe" and have little of the whimsy of their prior games since they need a hit to secure their place as a studio under SIE.

GTA6 is already viral… And the majority of people that want to play the game already have the console. The game was supposed to be out past year….

Exactly. Heck the first trailer was shown almost three years ago...why would PS buyers over the past 2+ years not have been buying PS5s in anticipation of GTA6?

The game will absolutely set records, but I think the effect on hardware sales will be a lot more reserved than some are imagining. GTA6's been a known quantity for ages at this point. You'll get a holiday boost to PS5 numbers and then they'll return to normal or even dip slightly below normal for a while.

The way some are talking it seems like PS5 will sell millions per month every month after GTA6 releases and that's just a ridiculous idea to have.

JAN 2026 (Welfare):

PS5: ~190K
NS2: ~185K
XBS: ~75K
NSW: ~33K
NEX: ~32k

JAN 2025 (Welfare):

PS5: ~245K
NSW: ~130K
XBS: ~125K

Excluding NEX, hardware sales units are down YoY.

JAN 2012:

360: ~270K
PS3: ~195K
3DS: ~175k
Wii: ~152K

JAN 2019:

NSW: ~284K
PS4: ~195K
XB1: ~101K

US hardware market is not doing well.

I don't doubt the PS5/Switch 2 difference being small, but I'm not putting money on Welfare's numbers for this. He's probably still upset over those Xbox numbers that came out some weeks ago from the Take-Two stuff (or was it AMD?).

Anyway, they didn't give Xbox numbers specifically but they they gave a combined amount and since both SIE and Nintendo actually share their numbers....

Sony is continuing to see more strong sales than ever despite terrible management.

People thinking the PS5 is doing well now haven't seen shit. The GTA6 bundle sales numbers are going to make these look like rookie numbers.

I keep telling some people that think the PS5 is going to sell worse than the PS4 launch aligned that they are very wrong and to watch out for GTA6 but they keep being in denial.

Why does Take-Two need a bundle to sell GTA6? They don't, so get that talk outta here 😂
 
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I'm not gonna lie, I'm still glad MM are around because they are clearly creative and have some great ideas i.e Dreams. Dreams should've been so much more than it turned out to be, and yeah MM deserve some of the blame (they took way too long to release the game, showed it too early), but I think SIE management also deserve a big part of the blame.

At least MM have another shot to make something work. I'm just afraid it'll be completely "safe" and have little of the whimsy of their prior games since they need a hit to secure their place as a studio under SIE.



Exactly. Heck the first trailer was shown almost three years ago...why would PS buyers over the past 2+ years not have been buying PS5s in anticipation of GTA6?

The game will absolutely set records, but I think the effect on hardware sales will be a lot more reserved than some are imagining. GTA6's been a known quantity for ages at this point. You'll get a holiday boost to PS5 numbers and then they'll return to normal or even dip slightly below normal for a while.

The way some are talking it seems like PS5 will sell millions per month every month after GTA6 releases and that's just a ridiculous idea to have.
Some people really think that every GTA6 copy sold is going to come with a PS5 console sticked.
 
I'm not gonna lie, I'm still glad MM are around because they are clearly creative and have some great ideas i.e Dreams. Dreams should've been so much more than it turned out to be, and yeah MM deserve some of the blame (they took way too long to release the game, showed it too early), but I think SIE management also deserve a big part of the blame.

At least MM have another shot to make something work. I'm just afraid it'll be completely "safe" and have little of the whimsy of their prior games since they need a hit to secure their place as a studio under SIE.



Exactly. Heck the first trailer was shown almost three years ago...why would PS buyers over the past 2+ years not have been buying PS5s in anticipation of GTA6?

The game will absolutely set records, but I think the effect on hardware sales will be a lot more reserved than some are imagining. GTA6's been a known quantity for ages at this point. You'll get a holiday boost to PS5 numbers and then they'll return to normal or even dip slightly below normal for a while.

The way some are talking it seems like PS5 will sell millions per month every month after GTA6 releases and that's just a ridiculous idea to have.
when have we ever seen a big boost in consoles sales from trailer? some weird logic going on here. GTA6 is gonna bring casuals that still play on there 8th gen consoles and there are many WW that dont wanna spend the money on a ps5 but will when everyone is saying how mind blowing the game is. did people start buying wiiu's when they saw the botw trailer lol. also speaking about bundle sony would be very wise to make a PlayStation 5 special edition for GTA6 that would sell like wild fire.
 
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The way some are talking it seems like PS5 will sell millions per month every month after GTA6 releases and that's just a ridiculous idea to have.
My prediction first 24h at least 3.2 million and after that at least 2.7 million every month for at least 1 year until it drops to normal pre GTA sales.

The problem, sony needs to manage to produce that many.

And it depends how many switch over from ps4 to ps5 and/or ps5 to ps5 pro
 
My prediction first 24h at least 3.2 million and after that at least 2.7 million every month for at least 1 year until it drops to normal pre GTA sales.

The problem, sony needs to manage to produce that many.

And it depends how many switch over from ps4 to ps5 and/or ps5 to ps5 pro
So… GTA6 is going to move 32.9 Million of PS5 comsoles in one year? According to your calculations…
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Sony co-marketing and promotion? Why would they not? Sony will pay for their bundles, it's not like Take Two will actually pay for them.
Now all makes sense… That's probably the reason they are closuring Bluepoint studios. Do you have any estimates on how much a deal like that would cost?
 
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