"Probably a few" doesn't actually reference a single one, though. And It's not irrelevant. Arc Raiders released on a thursday and the CCU jumped 100k that weekend. The single player game that released the same day did 2x the CCU during the weekend. Marathon didn't. Legitimately every game I've searched that's been perceived as doing well saw higher player counts post-release. Marathon didn't. The weekend saw declining numbers. Are we supposed to pretend Marathon is the first game in history to see declining numbers opening weekend, but we label it as a success?
It's dumb and nonsensical to say a game is a failure because other had more concurrent users particularly looking at the first few days. Following that reasoning you can also say Slay the Spire 2 is a failure because Counter Strike 2 has a 1.5M CCU all time peak, which is 3x bigger.
We don't have to pretend anything because the CCU peak difference between the first and second day is totally irrelevant to the success of a game and doesn't mean a shit.
You asked for examples, here's one: Marvel Rivals. Released on Friday, the second day (Saturday) had a worse daily CCU peak. Its all time CCU peak was on its 6th weekend, after recovering from a declining trend of the first almost four weeks or so.
Steam CCUs don't mean a shit other than amount of players connecected at the same time in a given moment, it's mostly a metric for server programmers, useful to see if they will need to scale up or down the servers.
Other than this just gives a rough idea from outside the company of the relative size of the userbase in Steam of a game compared to others (in this case we see Arc Raiders had more players than Marathon at launch) and for GaaS to see if in the long term the userbase of a game decreases more or less or -in a few extremenly successful cases with exceptional user retention- grows over time. Or to get a rough estimate of if when having a peak caused by a meaningful game update and the peak is over, if the remaining userbase is bigger than the previous one or not.
But there's also other factors: historically Bungie had their userbase primarly on console while Arc Raiders has it primarly in PC. And Arc Raiders has a more mainstream friendly PvE approach while Marathon has more hardcore PvP approach.
When both cases are successful they difference on the hardcore one having a smaller niche with worse short term retention (some users scared/frustrated by difficulty) but better in the long term (those engaged keep there for longer), and having a better long term retention typically means a considerably better ARPU plus less costs in user acquisition (marketing campaigns) and less post launch content dev costs needed to keep the same level of success in the long term.
But again, Steam CCU only tell a small part of the big picture and can't be used to see how a game is performing. Particularly only having a handful days. It's more useful to compare long term trends. It's still too early.
The important data will be after a few months the amount of sales in all platforms, the LTV (life time value, average amount of money spent by the player with game purchase+addons) and user retention measured with DAUs and not CCU, particularly D1, D3, D7, D30 and the one a former boss of mine who later became a top King executive told me was the most decisive one to predict the success of a GaaS: D180.
These codes are the percent of players that continue playing the game after that amount of days since they started to play it (day 1, day 3 etc).
Totally agree with the "to this point" part. It's been down-right TERRIBLE! I see no way for this acquisition to be viewed as a success, until 2030 at the earliest.
Well, I wouldn't say it's terrible. I'd say it's ok: they underperformed in some specific areas but had a good progress in the more broader ones. So far:
- Destiny 2 underperformed with Lightfall, but did a great job with The Final Shape and extended its support after it even if being a smaller one, going beyond the initial plans. Sony financials recognized the brand value of the game specifically (not the Destiny IP) was around $200M worse than initially estimated in the acquisition, which means their estimation and money made with it was way higher than this. Being 8 years and a half old, the game is sunseting as expected
- As agreed in the acquisition, moved some Bungie staff to SIE/PS Studios positions, to share knowledge, expertise, data and tools mainly for GaaS, but I assume also for IP creation, MP and shooters
- Highly grew the team and later reduced it by the agreed redundacy reduction, and staff moved to other SIE/PS Studios positions, plus later did another layoff linked to the Lightfall underperformance and Marathon delay. After these changes that involved two layoffs, their workforce is slightly higher now that they were in the acquisition. Pretty likely got some ex-Bungie devs back once Firewalk was shut down
- Bungie experts in GaaS specific areas joined the experts in GaaS specific areas of SIE publishing, PS Studios HQ and the other PS Studios dev teams to create the Sony Live Service Center of Excellence, where the all of them (not just the Bungie ones) shared GaaS specific knowledge, created a best practices guide for the teams and a series of reviews of the GaaS specific areas for all the GaaS SIE projects in the key points of a GaaS (this doesn't mean at all Bungie that cancelled games of other studios or that told them how to do them, asked to change things etc)
- Mainly thanks to the GaaS and off-PS push the SIE first party revenue aprox. doubled matching the goal mentioned by Jim Ryan in 2021 (still having 7 GaaS to be released after the initial deadline, which later got removed), and around 40% of that first party revenue now comes from GaaS and apparently around a similar percentage comes from Off-PS
- Their integration in SIE and later within PS Studios concluded
- Team LFG game seems to be progressing well, they concluded successfully its incubation and formed the new team
- Destiny Rising got released with big success
- Marathon got a delay, the game seems to be great seeing the early user reviews and impressions, and there are some positive KPIs but the game despite not being a Concord-like failure, it isn't either a Helldivers 2/Arc Raiders levels huge hit at least in Steam (something that could be expected due to the hardcore niche nature of the game)
- Before the acquisition were starting to work in non-gaming adaptations of these IPs, something that would get benefited with the acquisition. They didn't announce anyting, meaning pretty likely may continue working on it (probably still in early steps)
- After the restructuring Bungie was said to focus going forward in the Marathon and Destiny IPs. With Marathon and Destiny Rising shipped, and Destiny 2 support pretty likely nearing its end, very likely now in addition to some extra minor Destiny 2 support for the short/mid term, they'll have 'small' (for a Bungie context, or compared to a new AAA under development) teams supporting Destiny Rising and Marathon and will focus first on trying to grow Marathon during its first months post launch but very likely will switch their main focus to develop their main next game, which maybe already started it before and maybe was put it on hold to support the Marathon and Destiny Rising releases for a while. That next game should be a PvE focused Destiny 3 unless they're stupid