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[Al-ibn Kermit]

Isn't that because all the polling is being done on SC and we haven't gotten a lot of polling data on the race post-surge in Florida?

I'm not sure but it does look like they did update both projections today:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/south-carolina

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/florida

It looks like Newt will beat Romney by only about 3% in South Carolina but in Florida, Romney is projected to win by about 20%.

The thing is there's ten days of campaigning between the South Carolina and Florida primaries so a lot can change.

 

[Oblivion]

-Be open to diplomatic ideas with Iran, but don't be afraid to stop them when they go to far

Others have responded to the rest, but I'm very curious about this one. What exactly do they have to do to "go too far"? If hypothetically, Iran attacks U.S. soil, do you think that Obama wouldn't go to war with them out of fear?

I'm genuinely curious, and not really trying to accuse you. But I have heard a bunch of righties say that if Gore was president during 9/11, he'd be afraid to go after Bin Laden or something. If you attack U.S. soil, every goddamned person in the government, including Ron Paul and Ralph Nader, would go to war.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

How dare you.

Seriously, though! Space is important for satellites and all that, but I simply don't understand what shooting people into space is supposed to accomplish when we can accomplish virtually all of the same research more safely with drones.

 

[The Librarian]

I'm not sure but it does look like they did update both projections today:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/south-carolina

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/florida

It looks like Newt will beat Romney by only about 3% in South Carolina but in Florida, Romney is projected to win by about 20%.

The thing is there's ten days of campaigning between the South Carolina and Florida primaries so a lot can change.

The latest polls for Florida are from the 17th. SC's go up to today.

Florida has early voting and apparently a lot of folks have voted alread

Early voting doesn't even begin until Saturday. But this is only form a quick Google search, so I could be wrong.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/01/20/2599450/early-voting-in-gop-primary-to.html

 

[Higgy]

Maher was horrible tonight discussing SOPA. He admitted that he didnt know anything about the bill but said he thought the whole protest was about people wanting to have free shit. They explained to him the chilling effects it would have on innovation but he wasn't buying it. As a whole most Democrats in washington having been really a annoying on this issue.

 

[Cloudy]

The latest polls for Florida are from the 17th. SC's go up to today.


Early voting doesn't even begin until Saturday. But this is only form a quick Google search, so I could be wrong.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/01/20/2599450/early-voting-in-gop-primary-to.html

What about absentee ballots?

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Not overly surprising.

 

[Clevinger]

Seriously, though! Space is important for satellites and all that, but I simply don't understand what shooting people into space is supposed to accomplish when we can accomplish virtually all of the same research more safely with drones.

Oh, I thought you meant NASA and space exploration in general. I can completely understand not wanting/getting manned exploration.

 

[KtSlime]

Oh, I thought you meant NASA and space exploration in general. I can completely understand not wanting/getting manned exploration.

I think we are a ways off from having manned exploration, but we need to at least drive a bit more forward - the surest way to make sure a technology doesn't advance is by not spending money on it.

I would not be opposed to government funds being used to build a research lab on the moon and allow private companies have some access to it.

Hopefully we have more than a few millennia of life left in this earth, but we should definitely be researching escape avenues.

Besides, spending in untapped markets is good for the economy.

 

[Cloudy]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/jan/20/lets-stay-together-upped-obamas-chances-re-electio/

The oddsmaker announced this morning that it has tightened the prospects of Obama's re-election from 8:11 to 4:6 after seeing video of Obama singing a line of the Rev. Al Green’s 1970s hit, “Let’s Stay Together” to an adoring crowd at Harlem’s historic Apollo Theater. The impromptu performance, which the oddsmaker called “spectacular” as well as “relaxed and charismatic,” convinced the oddsmaker that the president and the US electorate may be in it for the long haul after 2012.

“We’re calling it the ‘Al Green’ effect. We can’t get the song out of our heads after seeing the video of him at the Apollo,” according to a press release Paddy Power issued Friday morning. “Policies are important but so too is the ability to move and motivate people and Obama does that effortlessly.”

Haha. Wow, people are so shallow

 

[Rur0ni]

Hmm Newt @ 82% on 538. This is so exciting.

 

[speculawyer]

Maher was horrible tonight discussing SOPA. He admitted that he didnt know anything about the bill but said he thought the whole protest was about people wanting to have free shit. They explained to him the chilling effects it would have on innovation but he wasn't buying it. As a whole most Democrats in washington having been really a annoying on this issue.

Well, perhaps instead of waiting for the podcast I'll have to get the torrent of that real time.

 

[LOCK]

It seems I'm Nelson Mandela.

Whodathunkit?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Gingrich's last night of polling was +14 over Romney.

What the fuck is the GOP doing :lol

Spoiler

cue someone saying Gingrich will defeat Obama handily and Republicans will gain a supermajority in the Senate and more seats in the House because that's how it always goes down I guess

Also I seem to recall SC is renowned for their primary winner being the GOP nominee, so we'll see if that holds. Hoping Newt keeps up the momentum through Florida. Losing 3 of the 4 major primaries would be pretty shitty for Mitt.

 

[speculawyer]

Gingrich's last night of polling was +14 over Romney.

What the fuck is the GOP doing :lol

Spoiler

cue someone saying Gingrich will defeat Obama handily and Republicans will gain a supermajority in the Senate and more seats in the House because that's how it always goes down I guess

Also I seem to recall SC is renowned for their primary winner being the GOP nominee, so we'll see if that holds. Hoping Newt keeps up the momentum through Florida. Losing 3 of the 4 major primaries would be pretty shitty for Mitt.

Meh . . . they just want to circus to go on. I bet a lot of those people want someone else but are voting Newt just to drag it out.

 

[Tim-E]

Hmm Newt @ 82% on 538. This is so exciting.

 

[Learn2read]

nvm

 

[NihonTiger90]

If SC kills Santorum, then you get:

Establishment GOP - Romney
Tea Party/Conservative GOP - Gingrich
Libertarian-leaning GOP - Paul

That would make the upcoming primaries very interesting.

 

[Miletius]

I don't think that a loss in SC by itself(especially a close one) will hurt Romney all that much. The campaign (and the country in general) expects him to do less well in a State like SC. He'll just spin it as close, but expected, we never assume a win, keep fighting to the end, yadda yadda.

What will hurt him is if fails to spin a loss well or if he gaffes in some way causing Newt to close the gap in Florida. Maybe Santorum dropping out too.

 

[TheNatural]

LOL, it's hilarious seeing the GOP tear itself apart and a new guy being pushed every week.

 

[dabig2]

Looking back at the last few pages, didn't realize Gaf was this liberal. Well, I knew it was liberal but not THAT liberal in respect to the so-called liberals in Congress and the White House who everyone in this country should view as center-right.

Forgot to save mine but I'm in the extreme left. I think I was at 7 lines down and 3 lines from the left. So in line with most people here. I would love a better test that goes into actual policy questions though instead of broad philosophy. There's the real test.

 

[kkaabboomm]

Hamagedon 2012, 10:45am. Romney v. Gingrich. Could be awesome.

 

[Ecotic]

This is so great, a week ago I had resigned myself to Romney winning the nomination. My how things change. Gingrich has the entire package in what I want in a Republican nominee: weak general election chances and entertainment value.

The storyline for this entire Republican primary (including the entirety of 2011) has been how the entire race has been able to turn consistently on a dime. Candidates caught fire and then imploded in a stunning succession. Even the stable Romney imploded within 48 hours. I figured he'd slowly grind the field down, and he still might, but if Gingrich wins convincingly tomorrow and Santorum drops out of the race then this will definitely be an unexpectedly exciting few months.

 

[Byakuya769]

SC is showing that the bombardment of anti-Gingrich ads in Iowa was money well spent for Romney and his surrogates.

 

[teh_pwn]

This is so great, a week ago I had resigned myself to Romney winning the nomination. My how things change. Gingrich has the entire package in what I want in a Republican nominee: weak general election chances and entertainment value.

The storyline for this entire Republican primary (including the entirety of 2011) has been how the entire race has been able to turn consistently on a dime. Candidates caught fire and then imploded in a stunning succession. Even the stable Romney imploded within 48 hours. I figured he'd slowly grind the field down, and he still might, but if Gingrich wins convincingly tomorrow and Santorum drops out of the race then this will definitely be an unexpectedly exciting few months.

I agree. I'm going to have to start watching Daily show and Colbert on a regular basis for the first time in years. It's going to be comedy gold with Gingrich's smug, condescending one liners that are intended to offend.

If Newt wins strong and Santorum is 4th, I could see Santorum dropping out, endorsing Newt, and becoming his VP. So much potential.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

SC is showing that the bombardment of anti-Gingrich ads in Iowa was money well spent for Romney and his surrogates.

I think they spent a lot of money in SC too.

 

[KingK]

Looking back at the last few pages, didn't realize Gaf was this liberal. Well, I knew it was liberal but not THAT liberal in respect to the so-called liberals in Congress and the White House who everyone in this country should view as center-right.

Forgot to save mine but I'm in the extreme left. I think I was at 7 lines down and 3 lines from the left. So in line with most people here. I would love a better test that goes into actual policy questions though instead of broad philosophy. There's the real test.

PoliGaf is very liberal, but I don't think it's necessarily an accurate depiction of Gaf as a whole. I think it's true that Gaf leans far left, but not as far as the regulars in here. There are a lot of conservatives that come out of the woodwork in some threads that just stay out of PoliGaf.

I agree. I'm going to have to start watching Daily show and Colbert on a regular basis for the first time in years. It's going to be comedy gold with Gingrich's smug, condescending one liners that are intended to offend.

If Newt wins strong and Santorum is 4th, I could see Santorum dropping out, endorsing Newt, and becoming his VP. So much potential.

Daily Show and Colbert Report have been on fire the last several weeks. They've really taken advantage of all the quality material they've been given to work with.

 

[kkaabboomm]

I think they spent a lot of money in SC too.

Romney superpac is starting to carpet bomb Florida with anti-newt ads...

 

[speculawyer]

Looking back at the last few pages, didn't realize Gaf was this liberal. Well, I knew it was liberal but not THAT liberal in respect to the so-called liberals in Congress and the White House who everyone in this country should view as center-right.

Forgot to save mine but I'm in the extreme left. I think I was at 7 lines down and 3 lines from the left. So in line with most people here. I would love a better test that goes into actual policy questions though instead of broad philosophy. There's the real test.

The young and geeky tend to be liberal.

 

[TheNatural]

Interesting seeing where they put some of the politicians from 2008's primaries. Practically the entire political spectrum in the US is in the opposite quadrant of everyone that's posted thus far.

LOL I'm almost exactly where Nader is and that's who I voted for last election. Maybe the last two, can't remember if I voted in 2004. WAR Nader.

 

[speculawyer]

This is so great, a week ago I had resigned myself to Romney winning the nomination. My how things change. Gingrich has the entire package in what I want in a Republican nominee: weak general election chances and entertainment value.

Don't get your hopes up. It is over. This is just a stay of execution.

 

[empty vessel]

What the hell guys?
You don't do survey when there's shit happening in politics, you save them for the dry season.

Also, what do I win?

lol. I just have to say, this feels like me.

 

[Byakuya769]

I think they spent a lot of money in SC too.

No doubt, but those ads likely derailed a Newt win in Iowa, followed by a close run in NH, and a probable win in SC.

 

[RDreamer]

I agree. I'm going to have to start watching Daily show and Colbert on a regular basis for the first time in years. It's going to be comedy gold with Gingrich's smug, condescending one liners that are intended to offend.

If Newt wins strong and Santorum is 4th, I could see Santorum dropping out, endorsing Newt, and becoming his VP. So much potential.

What has stopped you from tuning in so far? Daily Show and Colbert Report have been absolutely astoundingly excellent. Actually this entire primary has been one of the best sagas I've ever had the pleasure of watching, and Daily Show/Colbert is a huge part of why. Now with Colbert's Super Pac being given to Stewart and Colbert running for president it's been a whole new level of awesome.

 

[Oblivion]

Why Newt Gingrich is the TRUE successor to Martin Luther King

(not the actual title but might as well have been)

 

[Oblivion]

The best thing about Gingrich winning the nom isn't just the fact that he would most likely be destroyed in the debates and the election, but also the tea baggers would have no excuse as to why they lost this time.

 

[watershed]

Why Newt Gingrich is the TRUE successor to Martin Luther King

(not the actual title but might as well have been)

Okay, I read it. What I don't understand is how/why a standing ovation by an overwhelming white crowd to Gingrich basically giving a different version of "we need to end food stamps", is any sign of racial progress?

 

[Miletius]

I remember taking this test a while ago, and I got mostly the same results.

 

[Stinkles]

I tried to do that political test, but it felt more like an empathy and iq test and I started to feel bad for everyone who ended up in the top right.

 

[speculawyer]

I often describe myself as a "Left-Libertarian" and it still seems accurate.

And fuck everyone that calls Ron Paul a Libertarian.

 

[Stinkles]

Looking back at the last few pages, didn't realize Gaf was this liberal. Well, I knew it was liberal but not THAT liberal in respect to the so-called liberals in Congress and the White House who everyone in this country should view as center-right.

Forgot to save mine but I'm in the extreme left. I think I was at 7 lines down and 3 lines from the left. So in line with most people here. I would love a better test that goes into actual policy questions though instead of broad philosophy. There's the real test.

We don't have to say stupid shit we don't believe to get elected.

 

[RustyNails]

Hah. I wanna know how Colbert is doing.

The final poll was just posted:

Newt Gingrich heads into South Carolina election day as the clear front runner in the state: he's now polling at 37% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Rick Santorum, and 14% for Ron Paul.​

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/newt-expands-south-carolina-lead.html

Closing caveat:

Usually when we poll in the closing days before an election and find someone ahead by 9 points we'll say with a pretty high degree of confidence that person's going to win. I'm not comfortable saying that about South Carolina. A primary election with a lot of new news in the closing days for voters to absorb is fertile ground for a final result that's at odd with the polls. Mark Blumenthal's piece today for Huffington Post about 'expecting the unexpected' tomorrow is well worth a read. Gingrich will probably win tomorrow- but there's a higher than normal chance for a surprise given everything that's gone down in the last 48 hours.​

Still, tomorrow might go down as the most entertaining day in the cycle so far for me.

Goddamn. Newt completely torpedoed Romney in SC. Romney must be one pissed off fellar right now.

 

[speculawyer]

I tried to do that political test, but it felt more like an empathy and iq test and I started to feel bad for everyone who ended up in the top right.

Yeah, some of the questions seem pretty bullshit. Some hit on whether you are an atheist or not . . . how is that your political view?

 

[Salazar]

Bunch of engineers on GAF. Don't they lean right ?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Latest PPP Poll puts Newt up by 9. This is the final poll of the SC primary conducted I believe (among all pollsters)

PPP is out with its final numbers going into tomorrow's South Carolina primary. It's 37% Gingrich, 28% Romney, 16% Santorum, 14% Paul.

Whoops, saw after I posted that Ghaelon already beat me to it!

ALSO, Santorum won Iowa

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns...um-now-the-iowa-winner-officially-111713.html

 

[TheNatural]

So, is there any chance this year that Democrats win the House, or is it considered a lock at this point that the Republicans keep it? Regardless of the Presidential elections, things are just going to be in gridlock again unless the Democrats get huge gains.

 

[RustyNails]

If SC kills Santorum, then you get:

Establishment GOP - Romney
Tea Party/Conservative GOP - Gingrich
Libertarian-leaning GOP - Paul

That would make the upcoming primaries very interesting.

Newt will only absorb more power from Santorum if he drops, and this will make him unstoppable against Mitt. But since Santorum won Iowa and has the backing of the Evangelical base, I don't see him quitting anytime soon.

 

[Kad5]

You guys do realize that a left-libertarian is pretty much synonymous with libertarian socialism right?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

No doubt, but those ads likely derailed a Newt win in Iowa, followed by a close run in NH, and a probable win in SC.

Oh, we have new stats on the ad war!

Romney is still the favorite to win for me. He has the money, the backing of Republican establishment and people in the media that will devour Gingrich after the SC primary.

Gingrich got an initial funding of 5 mill for the super pac, there is nothing we have seen that can show us his super pac can continue what they have been doing.

 

[RustyNails]

Bunch of engineers on GAF. Don't they lean right ?

Well I have a B.Sc in Elec and Comp Engineering and I'm as commie as they come. I work in a different field though (IT).