But i thought One day to first week relation was usually 150%..
i mean
First week sales = day one sales + (day one sales x 0.50)
So this > 200k for day one looks a bit low considering around 650+k shipped for first day..
Media Create Sales: Week 8, 2012 (Feb 20 - Feb 26)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
But i thought One day to first week relation was usually 150%..
i mean
First week sales = day one sales + (day one sales x 0.50)
So this > 200k for day one looks a bit low considering around 650+k shipped for first day..
Musou games don't really need strong word of mouth. Hokuto Musou had pretty ass impressions and that didn't really hurt it much. As long as the front load is strong, I don't see any "problem" for the release at all.
50K?
even if first day shipment is at 650K-700K, why people keep thinking there is any chance reaching one million for One Piece Musou? on the high end, it might open first week between ToX and XIII-2, but I expect it to finish between those two games as well. And that's already the high ceiling for it.
thank you very much!
Looking at those numbers, I think that the 100k mark is impossible at all.
Castor Krieg
Banned
So yeah, thanks to this thread and my forced one week vacation I took a look at 3DS again. I also most likely discovered why I don't "get" 3D effect - Strabismus. :-(
My guess is the 3D in the cinema is way more "forced", thus I'm able to react better to it.
Oh well, maybe I will bit in the future, even if to play the games in 2D. Right know there are simply not enough compelling reasons for me to own one, will take my time with all DS games I didn't have time to play.
My guess is the 3D in the cinema is way more "forced", thus I'm able to react better to it.
Oh well, maybe I will bit in the future, even if to play the games in 2D. Right know there are simply not enough compelling reasons for me to own one, will take my time with all DS games I didn't have time to play.
Not to sound like a dick - but where is the connection to Japanese console sales or am i missing something ?
Castor Krieg
Banned
I took a closer look at getting 3DS after Media Create threads. 3DS is the dominant handheld in Japan = more Japanese games = more Japanese games in the West.
I like Japanese games, and right now it seems 3DS is getting more Japanese support than Vita (althought good things might come March 9th).
Is that good for the predictions? (bold)
Okay i get it, though you shouldn't feel forced to play or use the effect. I own a 3DS and I have the effect turned down most of the time - I couldn't care less about the effect, once I know the game and having fun. It's all about the software.
3D Land is the only expierience where I couldn't go back to 2D after having expierienced the 3D effect.
3D Land is the only expierience where I couldn't go back to 2D after having expierienced the 3D effect.
So, for those not following the other thread, our likely Vita announcements that could sell some copies are looking to include:
http://andriasang.com/con064/ps_heaven_creators/
http://andriasang.com/con065/shining_announcement/
Phantasy Star Victory (as the Phantasy Star series head is there)
Super Robot Wars (as the SRW series head is there)
Shining ________ (as the "biggest thing in series history" is happening next week)
Miku [presumably Project Diva] (as previously mentioned in this thread, they keep referring to a Vita game in job postings/contest promotions)
It's not exactly blow you away amazing, but so far this looks less terrible than it could be.
http://andriasang.com/con064/ps_heaven_creators/
http://andriasang.com/con065/shining_announcement/
Phantasy Star Victory (as the Phantasy Star series head is there)
Super Robot Wars (as the SRW series head is there)
Shining ________ (as the "biggest thing in series history" is happening next week)
Miku [presumably Project Diva] (as previously mentioned in this thread, they keep referring to a Vita game in job postings/contest promotions)
It's not exactly blow you away amazing, but so far this looks less terrible than it could be.
Yeah
how did these do on PSP?
Phantasy Star would be the biggest reveal.
BassForever
Member
Phantasy Star would be cool, would it really move consoles though or would it only really sell to the hardcore audience that already bought a Vita?
Pretty decently as a whole.
Those hinted titles would be really good for Vita future sales.
And obviously there could be also additional hidden software to be announced.
The only series that sold better than Phantasy Star on PSP were Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, and Kingdom Hearts.
After Phantasy Star, God Eater got very close, and then we had AKB, Gundam, and Hot Shots before we hit Super Robot Wars.
For the most part, it looks like the system has the PSP's medium tier sellers, but is currently lacking the high tier and the megaton tier.
We know Kojima's next title is at best multiplatform for the system, so that likely hurts there.
With Kingdom Hearts, there's no sign of a Vita entry.
Final Fantasy is sort of there, sort of not, but we should find out if they have any serious intentions with the series on the platform by TGS.
Monster Hunter should be assumed 3DS exclusive unless proven otherwise.
Edit:
Before someone notes, there is a Gundam game on the system, but it's Gundam Seed, though that doesn't rule out a more encompassing title later.
After Phantasy Star, God Eater got very close, and then we had AKB, Gundam, and Hot Shots before we hit Super Robot Wars.
For the most part, it looks like the system has the PSP's medium tier sellers, but is currently lacking the high tier and the megaton tier.
We know Kojima's next title is at best multiplatform for the system, so that likely hurts there.
With Kingdom Hearts, there's no sign of a Vita entry.
Final Fantasy is sort of there, sort of not, but we should find out if they have any serious intentions with the series on the platform by TGS.
Monster Hunter should be assumed 3DS exclusive unless proven otherwise.
Edit:
Before someone notes, there is a Gundam game on the system, but it's Gundam Seed, though that doesn't rule out a more encompassing title later.
Allan Holdsworth
Member
Yeah, I wonder how it will sell on a non-MH console.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Will be interesting to see how Phantasy Star Portable does on a handheld without Monster Hunter to clear the way and build base for it. At least 200k should be a safe bet since that's around what PSO/U/0 did on DC/GC/PS2/DS, but hopefully the series has built up some additional draw power on it's own.
It will depend on how reliant Phantasy Star Portable was on the PSP having the Monster Hunter audience. And if it is reliant on that audience, how good a job it can do at convincing them to buy a Vita in the quantities that would make a new Phantasy Star on Vita as successful as the PSP games.
electroplankton
Banned
Honestly -and I don't want to be an owl- those announcements would be pretty negligible for Vita sales; they will give a boost for a week or two, but they will hardly change the trend. Moreover, some result on PSP were possible thanks to a good installed base and an active and mature userbase (Phantasy Star sold well in the light of Monster Hunter), two element that I cannot see on Vita now.
Pretty decently as a whole.
thanks
a step in the right direction if the reveals are legit
I'll let him reply:
Not only the million sellers are important.
Especially if we are talking not to regain the throne from 3ds, but talking about re-vitalize the weekly hw sales
electroplankton
Banned
Not only the million sellers are important.
Especially if we are talking not to regain the throne from 3ds, but talking about re-vitalize the weekly hw sales
The fact is that: few games are clearly better than nothing.
So far PSVita has very few commercially relevant games in the near future; mainly, Persona 4 and Gundam Seed. Period. Then there's Final Fantasy X and some other multi game with PS3, but this means that at least until the end of Summer the console has -almost- no games.
Everyone can understand that there MUST be something in development for the console; and everyone knows that some projects will arrive on Vita for sure. Diva, Phantasy Star, some other Gundam game.
So, few other games are ok, for sure, but they won't be relevant sales-wise, especially if they will be released in some months, once every three-four weeks.
Phantasy Star is midtier now? Oh wow.
electroplankton
Banned
I do think that PSP was big on PSP because of MH-fanbase, not because of the game itself. It could reach +600k sales thanks to an environment that Vita doesn't have. Surely, it will sell a lot, but a 300-400k game in a sea with games that hardly reach 100k is almost irrelevant imo.
It would be either poetic or tragic should PSV lose even PSV to 3DS.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
If everything on Nirolak's list comes to fruition then Sega at least is behind Vita in a big way. I could also see Sonic, Yakuza and Valkyria games from them on the platform as logical fits.
Sony still needs to work on the other big publishers though. They need to get multiple similar scale commitments from Square Enix, Namco Bandai, Konami, Capcom, Level 5 and Tecmo Koei.
Sony still needs to work on the other big publishers though. They need to get multiple similar scale commitments from Square Enix, Namco Bandai, Konami, Capcom, Level 5 and Tecmo Koei.
I wasn't being sarcastic. But you're right, that's probably not the appropriate term for Phantasy Star.
I'm pretty sure they had a board meeting evaluating if continuing on Vita or maybe go somewhere else and someone said "but the title fits so well and it's so nice". So they thought it'd be a waste and continued on Vita.
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
If this is correct, Sega seems to really put all its love to PSV. 3DS really was treated badly in comparison then, having Sonic Generations and Super Monkey Ball 3D (two comparatively weak games in successful franchises), Mario & Sonic (does this even count?), Rhythm Thief (really small title) and Crush 3D (a PSP port...), despite the one cross over game I don't recall anything else being announced. Whereas PSV, which has just been released, already has Virtua Tennis, a new Monkey Ball, Phantasy Star, Hatsune Miku and a new Shining game coming / already released (if specualtions above are true). So Sega really seems to bet on Vita.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I don't think it's unfair to call a 400-600k seller mid tier in the context of the overall Japanese market.
Sega really need to fix up the 3DS support!!!
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
3DS also got Shinobi, Hatsune Miku and Puyo Puyo. They're not exactly avoiding the system.
electroplankton
Banned
Mario & Sonic DO count, especially in the West (published by SEGA itself); the first two were its best-selling game of... Forever?
Father_Brain
Banned
It's not likely to be a 550K+ game on a new platform with a tiny installed base and no MH. How much lower, I have no idea, but it'd still be bigger news than any Vita-exclusive title announced to date from a Japanese third party.
distantmantra
Member
Need to include the Special Edition version of Gundam UC if you're including the regular one. Different SKU.
test_account
XP-39C²
A while ago: "PS Vita needs more games!". Then now rumors about some Vita games: "PS Vita needs more games!".
electroplankton
Banned
Yes. Vita needs a constant flow of low/mid-tier games, with at least a pair of fairly big games. Some game here and there, titles that everyone expected (because it's not hard to think a new PS or a new Project Diva on the successor of PSP), are not sufficient imo.
test_account
XP-39C²
True, but assuming these Vita rumors are true, what makes you think that there wont be a steady flow of games?
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I think part of the problem is none of the proposed announcements are really "new". We've known about all of them more or less since last year, the only real "surprise" is that they weren't canceled or moved.
That doesn't mean there won't be surprise announcements, but Phantasy Star, Project Diva, etc were already expected for awhile now.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
It was rumored for awhile and there was even a retail listing leak iirc. Would've been a pretty easy port since they already have Wii assets anyway.
Bad word of mouth hurt Hokuto Musou, it didn't show the typical Musou legs and the international version sold almost zero. After all I don't think One Piece Musou will sell so well because of Musou brand.
I don't doubt the success of the game and I didn't say that but if the general impressions are close to what I read the drops at following weeks will be big, something unusual especially for a One Piece game.
test_account
XP-39C²
It makes a difference when/if we know for sure about games coming. I dont think that many buys a system based on rumored games.