Support NeoGAF

[Cheebo]

The "Heath Ledger's death" thing is overblown. And even if that did get butts in seats to see TDK, those people were likely impressed enough to stick through with the series to see its conclusion.

That's the big thing. Heath Ledger's death helped bring them in but there is no reason to assume now they'd suddenly refuse to see the sequel.

Do people really believe there are tons of people out there who went to see TDK out of curiousity due to the press around Ledger's death and really liked the movie yet then would refuse to go see the sequel even though they really liked the last one purely because no one died this time? It's silly.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

I am still amazed that TDKR won´t be in 3D. It´s like a huge miss to grab more money on the last Nolan´s Batman movie.

 

[TheKaeptain]

Do people really think the Avengers will do better in WW numbers? Haven't the box offices numbers for those movies been close to their domestic haul?


Edit: fuck Thor made a shit load more than CA.

 

[Cheebo]

I am still amazed that TDKR won´t be in 3D. It´s like a huge miss to grab more money on the last Nolan´s Batman movie.

Nolan doesn't like 3D and he has the clout to make the call on that.

 

[apana]

Nolan has a lot of sway with the executives, especially after Inception. I doubt they would ever force him to film something in 3D.

 

[Kusagari]

Do people really think the Avengers will do better in WW numbers? Haven't the box offices numbers for those movies been close to their domestic haul?

Yeah, besides Thor which made quite a bit more overseas. I think it will make more than domestic, but not by some huge amount. Probably something like 300-350m domestic and 400-450m overseas if that.

 

[Senoculum]

Never underestimate the power of children. The Dark Knight Rises seems to be on course for being the better movie, but the Avengers has 5 movies backing it up; with half a dozen or so heros that kids have dressed up as for Halloween for the last 4 years.

Also, the Avengers has stronger merchandise, take a look at your local Walmart, it's chock full of Marvel stuff. Not to mention that the Box Office will be beefed up by its IMAX and 3D showings...

TDKR seems to be more in tune with young adults, and I'm not sure if the random 20 year old will watch TDKR as many times as the random 13 year old for Avengers.

I'm watching both, so they already have my money...

 

[JzeroT1437]

I remember when The Dark Knight was released and Neogaf was talking if TDK or SPEED RACER would take home the box office.

 

[Cheebo]

I remember when The Dark Knight was released and Neogaf was talking if TDK or SPEED RACER would take home the box office.

GAF was hyping Speed Racer up to be some big huge boxoffice smash for some absurd reason I will never understand. I remember the endless 250-300+ mil predictions for it here.

 

[FoneBone]

That's the big thing. Heath Ledger's death helped bring them in but there is no reason to assume now they'd suddenly refuse to see the sequel.

Do people really believe there are tons of people out there who went to see TDK out of curiousity due to the press around Ledger's death and really liked the movie yet then would refuse to go see the sequel even though they really liked the last one purely because no one died this time? It's silly.

"Refusing" to see it is a silly way to frame it.

 

[Cheebo]

"Refusing" to see it is a silly way to frame it.

Unwilling is a better word for what I meant.

 

[Veelk]

As someone who has never seen a Joss Whedon product but has heard generally good things about him, I demand that gaf explain to me what the deal is with him, good or bad.

Would like an answer for this.

 

[Tookay]

This topic is going to be hilarious to revisit in a couple months.

That's the big thing. Heath Ledger's death helped bring them in but there is no reason to assume now they'd suddenly refuse to see the sequel.

Do people really believe there are tons of people out there who went to see TDK out of curiousity due to the press around Ledger's death and really liked the movie yet then would refuse to go see the sequel even though they really liked the last one purely because no one died this time? It's silly.

Well I for one only watch films starring recently deceaed actors.

Do people really think the Avengers will do better in WW numbers? Haven't the box offices numbers for those movies been close to their domestic haul?

We don't use real numbers or movie-going trends here; we only make things up according to our personal fanboy preferences. A $200 million gap domestically between Iron Man and TDK can be overcome easily with a couple more superheroes in the mix. And children. Or something.

 

[Tobor]

The biggest surprise here is that there are people who think that The Avengers will gross less than Thor, lol.

Yeah, that's absurd. Avengers is going to do great BO. That much is certain.

 

[JGS]

Domestic totals from Boxofficemojo.com:



Two out of the top 10 super hero films are Batman. Six are Marvel properties. I think TDKR will do better than Avengers but it's worth discussion.

I'm still surprised people think that Ledger's death had nothing to do with at least some of the bump in revenue from BB to TDK. It's ridiculous and that isn't all good word of mouth about BB.

It defintely played a role but it quickly turned primarily into how good he was in the role over morbid curiosity. By the time Dark Knight came out, it had great critical acclaim and an awesome trailer to get excited about.

Still maintain that Avengers won't manage Iron Man numbers (Although I'm forgetting the 3D Xfactor since I don't want to see it that way).

 

[Kusagari]

Unwilling is a better word for what I meant.

I think the argument to be made is that Ledger's death, and the Joker in general, made TDK a true event. TDKR might not merit as many repeat views or bring out as many casual moviegoers as TDK did for that reason.

 

[Messypandas]

yeah. Alot of people are forgetting Avengers will have the shitty 3D commission in its favour. If TDKR and Avengers put the same amount of bums on seats, Avengers will still crush it by an average of what? 25%? 50%?

And people are underestimating the event status WB will put on this movie. They're not stupid, the rejuvinated Batman franchise has been they're holy grail for the past 7 years. THEY will liken this film to a life-ending event. The END of Nolans Batman.

 

[TheKaeptain]

Would like an answer for this.

Look at your user name. Answer your question.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Do people really think the Avengers will do better in WW numbers? Haven't the box offices numbers for those movies been close to their domestic haul?

I am pretty sure that TDKR will make a billion. The Avengers will make 600 million WW at best.

I just checked what movies are coming after the Avengers. Dark Shadows the following week and Battleship after that, and MIB3 in the third week of May. Those 3 movies will take audiences from the Avengers. I don´t see any legs for the Avengers honestly.
Battlefield will appeal to the same audiences as Transformers and the Avengers. I don´t think that Battlefield will do as much as transformers, or even half but it will be enough to take the steam off the Avengers.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Still maintain that Avengers won't manage Iron Man numbers

I would be very very surprised if that happens based on what I've seen of the film from the action sequences alone.

 

[Tookay]

I think the argument to be made is that Ledger's death, and the Joker in general, made TDK a true event. TDKR might not merit as many repeat views or bring out as many casual moviegoers as TDK did for that reason.

And the converse argument is that repeat viewings are a result of the quality of the film, which suggests that there was a degree of satisfaction with the film that will likely buoy or maintain its box office for a sequel. TDK is generally well-regarded by those who've seen it. They'll be back, even if it took someone's death to get them interested in the first place.

 

[JzeroT1437]

GAF was hyping Speed Racer up to be some big huge boxoffice smash for some absurd reason I will never understand. I remember the endless 250-300+ mil predictions for it here.

Worldwide Gross: $93,945,766
Production Budget: $120,000,000

I still don't understand the insane predictions.

 

[Cartman86]

As someone who has never seen a Joss Whedon product but has heard generally good things about him, I demand that gaf explain to me what the deal is with him, good or bad.

As someone who considers most of his work some of the best pieces of entertainment I've seen I can't say much of what is bad (plenty of others will do that). What I don't like is half of Dollhouse, some of Alien Resurrection, and the original Buffy film. He and his fans will debate forever how much involvement and control he ultimately had with these projects. Sometimes I tend to give him the same level of credit that I give him with Toy Story. Which is very little, and other times he's totally responsible. The writer of Speed gives Whedon credit for much of dialog in that script, and the infamously stupid "frog lightning" line from X-Men is credited to him. The point is it's hard to tell which is really his and which isn't in some of these films.

Anyways what I like about him is the humor and unexpected nature of what he does with characters. Making you like people you shouldn't (airheads, villains etc.), killing off characters you love in fantastic ways, directing one of the saddest, most punch to the gut episodes of television ever ("The Body" episode of Buffy), and some really smart comedy writing.

Moments like these (they are short and humorous and require no knowledge)

Firefly #1

Firefly #2

Angel

and finally a line that he himself did not write (his brother did) from Doctor Horrible.

Come at me Whedon haters!

 

[TheKaeptain]

I think Avengers will be really front loaded. Also, Tim Burton, Johnny Depp, and Vampires just sounds like something that can pull an upset the second weekend.

 

[JGS]

I would be very very surprised if that happens based on what I've seen of the film.

Were you looking forward to the movie or pleasantly surprised?

I also have no idea what 3D will do for it either which completely wrecks my forecast in hindsight. I don't even know which movies will have it but know DKR will not.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Were you looking forward to the movie or pleasantly surprised?

We're working on it, and I still end up surprised at what the artists are pulling off.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

This topic is going to be hilarious to revisit in a couple months.



Well I for one only watch films starring recently deceaed actors.



We don't use real numbers or movie-going trends here; we only make things up according to our personal fanboy preferences. A $200 million gap domestically between Iron Man and TDK can be overcome easily with a couple more superheroes in the mix. And children. Or something.

CGI Heath Ledger as the Vision, CGI Brittany Murphy as Mockingbird, guaranteed 2 billion at the box office.

 

[Kusagari]

And the converse argument is that repeat viewings are a result of the quality of the film, which suggests that there was a degree of satisfaction with the film that will likely buoy or maintain its box office for a sequel. TDK is generally well-regarded by those who've seen it. They'll be back, even if it took someone's death to get them interested in the first place.

Well here's the thing to say to that. One, we have no idea how TDKR will be regarded. People might not view it as highly as TDK and not come out for repeat viewings. Two, just because they were satisfied with TDK, mainly because of Ledger's Joker, does not mean they'll come out for TDKR in theaters. They could be happy waiting for it to come out on dvd now that there's nothing truly drawing them to it this time.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

I would be very very surprised if that happens based on what I've seen of the film from the action sequences alone.

That´s because Iron Man was the focus of Iron Man movies. This movies has a lot of lead roles and less focus on Iron Man. I don´t think that the Avengers will do as much as Iron man made WW.

 

[Tookay]

I am pretty sure that TDKR will make a billion. The Avengers will make 600 million WW at best.

I just checked what movies are coming after the Avengers. Dark Shadows the following week and Battleship after that, and MIB3 in the third week of May. Those 3 movies will take audiences from the Avengers. I don´t see any legs for the Avengers honestly.

This is the other point that can't be emphasized enough. May is stacked with films that have overlapping audiences. All of those siphon all eyes from Avengers.

TDKR has the entire back half of summer to itself.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Well here's the thing to say to that. One, we have no idea how TDKR will be regarded. People might not view it as highly as TDK and not come out for repeat viewings. Two, just because they were satisfied with TDK, mainly because of Ledger's Joker, does not mean they'll come out for TDKR in theaters. They could be happy waiting for it to come out on dvd now that there's nothing truly drawing them to it this time.

Only this isn't how movie sequels work ever. People came in droves to see X3 and The Matrix Reloaded the first week.

 

[Tookay]

Well here's the thing to say to that. One, we have no idea how TDKR will be regarded. People might not view it as highly as TDK and not come out for repeat viewings. Two, just because they were satisfied with TDK, mainly because of Ledger's Joker, does not mean they'll come out for TDKR in theaters. They could be happy waiting for it to come out on dvd now that there's nothing truly drawing them to it this time.

I'm willing to bet that the number of people who walk out of a theater saying, "TDK was only good because of the Joker, who is now dead, so I don't care for the sequel," is statistically insignificant and easily offset by the number of people who will now be curious because it's the end of a trilogy and the expanding international B.O.

 

[Messypandas]

I think theres an argument to be made about how well Inception did at the B.O considering it was promoted off the hype off 'TDK' and 'From Director Chris Nolan'. It did 800 million worldwide which is insane numbers considering no associated franchise, no 3D, no superhero and most of all, no child incentive. People are naturally assuming Nolan=Quality

 

[Calcaneus]

Avengers just looks like more of the same, only the people who have been following this care that all Marvel movies were leading up to this. To be fair, that still is a lot of people. It will do really really well, but I don't think it will reach TDKR numbers.

People look at the Nolan Batman movies differently than they do normal superhero movies.

 

[apana]

Avengers just looks like more of the same, only the people who have been following this care that all Marvel movies were leading up to this. To be fair, that still is a lot of people. It will do really really well, but I don't think it will reach TDKR numbers.

People look at the Nolan Batman movies differently than they do normal superhero movies.

Batman works really well in the US. It gets a lot of people who wouldn't normally watch superhero movies and are more interested in crime dramas. Some older people but their money is just as good. I was really surprised when even my dad was willing to watch Dark Knight. I think I would have to kidnap him to watch something like the Avengers. I do think though that Batman will settle down to normal after Nolan leaves. Probably hovering at around Spiderman levels of popularity box office wise, maybe a little bit better.

 

[FnordChan]

And people are underestimating the event status WB will put on this movie. They're not stupid, the rejuvinated Batman franchise has been they're holy grail for the past 7 years. THEY will liken this film to a life-ending event. The END of Nolans Batman.

Not to downplay how much Warner will be pushing TDKR or how much they appreciate it as a franchise and Nolan as a director, but I have to jump in and be pedantic for a moment: Warner's holy grail for the past decade has been the Harry Potter series, with a global box office total of 7.7 billion dollars. I'm just sayin'.

FnordChan

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Worldwide Gross: $93,945,766
Production Budget: $120,000,000

I still don't understand the insane predictions.

The argument was that it was an amazingly accurate, sufficiently campy CGI rendition of the source material. Unfortunately, no one gives a flying fuck about the source material. Only slightly less absurd than spending $250 million on Green Lantern or Jon Carter.

 

[artist]

GAF was hyping Speed Racer up to be some big huge boxoffice smash for some absurd reason I will never understand. I remember the endless 250-300+ mil predictions for it here.

Brofist Cheebo, your opinions are starting be echo mine.

 

[Messypandas]

Not to downplay how much Warner will be pushing TDKR or how much they appreciate it as a franchise and Nolan as a director, but I have to jump in and be pedantic for a moment: Warner's holy grail for the past decade has been the Harry Potter series, with a global box office total of 7.7 billion dollars. I'm just sayin'.

FnordChan

Fair play, i was talking more in terms of quality. I'm guessing HP7ATDH-P2 levels of marketing here

 

[JGS]

I think theres an argument to be made about how well Inception did at the B.O considering it was promoted off the hype off 'TDK' and 'From Director Chris Nolan'. It did 800 million worldwide which is insane numbers considering no associated franchise, no 3D, no superhero and most of all, no child incentive. People are naturally assuming Nolan=Quality

Agreed. plus people actually think Nolan =quality after seeing the films. I'm surprised by the argument that DK wasn't rewatchable considering how many people went all Titanic on it and watched it multiple times in theater.

This is why I don't really think it will do as well as Dark Knight (Unless it's equally rewatchable) but it will do well enough to win.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

I love waking up to stupid threads like this. Nothing like a good laugh in the morning.

TDKR will hammer The Avengers.

 

[Zzoram]

Nolan doesn't like 3D and he has the clout to make the call on that.

The real problem is that Batman takes place almost entirely at night in the dark. Movies in 3D are known to get much darker because of the way the glasses filter out a lot of the polarized light. The result is that 3D movies need to be bright to compensate for the darkening, otherwise they look terribly dark and you can't see much detail.

Nolan chose to keep his movie in the dark, and 3D would've only made it look terrible so that's reason enough to not do 3D.

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

The real problem is that Batman takes place almost entirely at night in the dark. Movies in 3D are known to get much darker because of the way the glasses filter out a lot of the polarized light. The result is that 3D movies need to be bright to compensate for the darkening, otherwise they look terribly dark and you can't see much detail.

Nolan chose to keep his movie in the dark, and 3D would've only made it look terrible so that's reason enough to not do 3D.

You're talking about bad projection practices for 3D, not 3D itself. Prometheus will be plenty dark and has been shot in 3D.

 

[Kunan]

Ice Age 4 will outgross both of them. This actually has a very high chance of coming true lol

 

[Zzoram]

Ice Age 4 will outgross both of them. This actually has a very high chance of coming true lol

That's because when you sell a kid's ticket, you sell an adult one too.

TDK was really dark, even at PG-13 it was probably more disturbing for kids than many R movies. I wonder if TDKR will be a big hit among young kids. I imagine that The Avengers probably appeals to younger kids more.

 

[MANGOD]

No way in hell does ice age gross more than TDKR. Lay of the crack son

 

[SCULLIBUNDO]

No way in hell does ice age gross more than TDKR. Lay of the crack son

I wouldn't bet on it beating TDKR, but I wouldn't count it out either. The Ice Age movies make fucking HUGE bank overseas.

 

[MANGOD]

The dark knight Gross:$1,001,921,825 (worldwide) (1 December 2010)
Ice age 3 Gross:$886,686,817 (Worldwide) (10 December 2011)
Over a hundred mill ain't really that close and take into consideration ice was 3d also.

 

[Koodo]

The dark knight Gross:$1,001,921,825 (worldwide) (1 December 2010)
Ice age 3 Gross:$886,686,817 (Worldwide) (10 December 2011)
Over a hundred mill ain't really that close and take into consideration ice was 3d also.

Of which $690 million came from overseas markets, which are growing tremendously Year-On-Year. Ice Age's foreign gross could be much larger this time around, enough to offset the disparity in domestic gross with the TDKR.

I'd say TDKR is the likeliest worldwide winner since it will probably also have an increase in foreign gross, coupled with the biggest domestic gross of the year (though I'm not confident it will match TDK's domestic haul). Ice Age is definitely a contender though, as is The Hobbit for similar overseas reasons.


Avengers? LOL.

 

[G-Fex]

im sure The Avengers will be more fun.