If it hits 700M you can rub in everyone's face that you were right.
Wkd Box Office 054-612 -Whedon smash comic-to-film opening record, Nolan stays mad
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If it hits 700M you can rub in everyone's face that you were right.
I'm amazed at the MIB3 pessimism. I will be amazed if it doesn't do over $100M opening weekend and over $250 million overall.
I am legend did $77M opening weekend and $256M overall. Do you naysayers really think Will Smith's star power has diminished that much in 5 years?
No way the Avengers drops by less that 55%.
I don't even know who is being serious anymore.
MIB2 sold less tickets it's opening week than MIB1 and grossed less overall domestically and WW. I would be more amazed if it did over $100 million.
sonycowboy
Member
It is getting beyond ridiculous.
You've never seen legs like Avatar or Titanic. The volumes they were doing in weekends 3-8 were ridiculous. That's not to say another movie won't do it, but the fact that a movie has a spectacular opening weekend tells you NOTHING about it's legs. The 2nd weekend will tell you ALOT, but you really need to wait for the 3rd weekend to even consider that it could be in the same class as those movies. (HINT: Almost assuredly, it won't be)
And that's not a knock against Avengers. It's not like if it doesn't come close to those 2 movies that that somehow invalidates the mind-blowing opening this movie had. It wouldn't be a disappointment.
Back to this weekend, I'm actually a bit pessimistic about this weekend in the face of these reported estimates. There's a law of large numbers that makes it really, really hard to try and use the % drop of other movies to try and peg this movie. I personally think that 90M would be a spectacular 2nd weekend number, even though it's a 56%+ drop. The record for 2nd weekend is 75.6M and people are going to say how horrible it's legs are if it only beats the record by 15M... Every movie is different and that's why when you look at 2.6x multipliers up to 4.3x multipliers those show that opening weekend and week can't predict where you end up.
Wow, what? Will Smith's star power didn't help Seven Pounds or Hancock. I expect around 80 mil which will beat any other Will Smith OW.
Speedymanic
Banned
WallE probably had a hand in making sure Hancock wasn't as big of a hit as it should have been. As for SP, understandable, given the genre, why that wasn't a big hit at the BO.
Do 'serious' movies ever do really big numbers at the BO?
Speedymanic
Banned
Yeah, it wasn't bad by any means, the release window + competition from WallE probably stopped it from hitting a higher OW.
It's currently sixth highest OW on July 4th, not a bad feat.
AbsoluteZero
Banned
Joss can rebuild Adam.
I don't know what this is, but the floppy drive in his chest gave me a good chuckle.
Sometimes, though Seven Pounds did open to 2758 theaters so that probably didn't help. I just don't see where MIB3 is going to break 100 mil, I'd be very surprised if it did 90 mil.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
also jermaine from flight of the conchords is the bad guy. 2 billion bars of gold for this movie.
Speedymanic
Banned
90m will probably be in the bag thanks to the 3d tax, I guess it depends on how well it reviews. It looks decent enough in the trailers and somewhat funny, so it shouldn't have too bad an OW.
100m isn't entirely out of reach, but it wouldn't be a surprise if it didn't hit 100m.
90 - 100m OW with a steep drop if it is rubbish, more modest drop if it isn't.
That is the worst villain ever from Buffy the Vampire Slayer. They didn't have the budget to pull that storyline off. Not even close.
Such a steep drop off from Principle Giant Snake.
That's Mayor Giant Snake, get it straight.
Speedymanic
Banned
The First disagrees. Such a BS villain. Should have gone with the Preacher as the main villain instead. The only role where I've found Fillion likeable.
But yeah, Adam was up there as one of the worst big bads.
That's Mayor Giant Snake, get it straight.
Right right, he ATE the Principal.
Serious, the Mayor was fantastic.
90 mil would be a significant achievement given the length of time between movies and what could be a terrible movie, I suppose I wouldn't be TOO surprised though, not after what Hunger Games and Avengers pulled.
Right.
I am betting on 3D, Will Smith, franchise recognition, and the over-performance of those two.
Really though, I think it will come down to reviews. I (like everyone) hated the second one, but I will go see this if it reviews well.
The universal hate for the second one might affect this ones OW, but people today have shorter memories then ever. I'd be willing to bet against a 100 mil opening, but not a 90 mil.
planar1280
Banned
Projections for this weekend
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com//news/box-office-dark-shadows-avengers-weekend-midnight-323501
Dark shadows: 35-40 million
Avengers: 75-100 million
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com//news/box-office-dark-shadows-avengers-weekend-midnight-323501
Dark shadows: 35-40 million
Avengers: 75-100 million
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Giving themselves quite a cushion on that Avengers estimate.
planar1280
Banned
Thursday NUmbers
THE AVENGERS scored an estimated $12.5M Thursday. Total now stands at a mighty $270M going into a weekend where...
https://twitter.com/#!/ERCboxoffice/status/200989256188035072
THE AVENGERS scored an estimated $12.5M Thursday. Total now stands at a mighty $270M going into a weekend where...
https://twitter.com/#!/ERCboxoffice/status/200989256188035072
Nice hold from Wednesday. $100 million second weekend is a go.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
So who's actually seeing Dark Shadows this weekend?
Bah.
Seeing Avengers again tonight with some friends.Phoenician_Viking
Banned
$100 million in the second weekend will be hard to cross. I don´t think it will only fall 50%. More like 70% but we will see.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
Wow, that's a really good Thursday hold. A $100m second weekend is definitely in play with that hold.
As of right now I think something like a 60% (plus or minus a few percent) drop is the the most realistic outcome. That would work out to 83M this weekend.
So far the Avengers has almost exactly followed the hold trajectory of the Hunger Games and that film dropped by 61.6% in its second weekend. I'm going to say that The Avengers will do slightly better since HG faced slightly tougher competition in its second weekend IMO, but I don't think it will be able to get the 51% drop needed for it beat 100M.
I liked the 2nd MIB
Does this movie actually have any hype? It looks so bad.
Where are you getting this 70% notion? Harry Potter and Twilight? Other than Harry Potter, none of the $150M+ openers dropped 70%. Spider-man 3 and Hunger games dropped in the low 60s and the Dark Knight dropped 52%. The daily holds for Avengers have been better for the Avengers than Spider-man 3, so it seems pretty likely that a sub-60% drop is in the cards.
Escape Goat
Member
We should continue mentioning Whedon and Cameron in the same sentence. Its like watching GAF walk on its hind legs.
It's Burton and Depp, people will probably watch it regardless of quality.
midnights were $500k, so people aren't chomping at the it to see it. Still should do alright this weekend.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
I'm not seeing Dark Shadows, either. Looks like it's gonna be shit. The same shit the last few Burton-Depp movies were. They are the worse kind of marriage: they have nothing new to say to each other.
Depp is is the more disappointing one, personally. I think him, along with Norton and Bale, is the most talented actor of his generation. But he's squandered it on Hunter S. Thompson impressions, metrosexual pirates, and quirky caricatures in Burton films. Shit is so sad, man :/
Depp is is the more disappointing one, personally. I think him, along with Norton and Bale, is the most talented actor of his generation. But he's squandered it on Hunter S. Thompson impressions, metrosexual pirates, and quirky caricatures in Burton films. Shit is so sad, man :/
Don't forget weird French Film Cameos.
You are using my name, I'm not. You are creepy, besides mouthing off BS numbers from Busty's inside sources. :lol
Besides I dont get how using Sculli's name is creepy when he was pimping his website hard here .. jeez, the polly of jett, Sculli and Solo should get a room and make sweet sweet love.
Someone should change your username to Creepmeister General, with Stalking Unit as your tag.
I can't say that I'm surprised by the lack of hype, but I personally can't wait to see it. I've loved every second of footage that I've seen. I guess the tone they are going for just exactly matches my sense of humor.
I'm actually not even a fan of the duo in general, though I do love Ed Wood.
Escape Goat
Member
I am excited about Abraham Lincoln. Dark Shadows can suck it (my penis, not my blood)
Elaboration necessary.
This can't be stated enough. This is why Will Smith is the biggest film star in the world. It's because he get take utter, utter dreck like Hancock (that had a hellish production filled with reshoots IIRC) and made it a worldwide hit.
But in saying that MIB3 just doesn't feel like a massive home run even with Smith starring. The franchise as a whole feels a little tired and even Smith's mega star power may not be enough to power it to a massive worldwide hit.
I'm not sure what you mean by this. Whedon has directed TWO films. I thoroughly enjoyed The Avengers but it's box office means nothing to anyone that isn't going to directly benefit from it financially.
No matter what you thought of Avatar (and I wasn't a fan) Cameron is an icon who never listened when people told him it couldn't be done.
Whedon is primarily a TV guy (and I don't mean that in a bad way) at this point with two features under his belt. One a continuation of a his own TV series and the other based on an established IP and 'universe'.
These two things are NOT the same in any sense of the word.
Escape Goat
Member
Excellent, excellent.
Good Job Bob
Member
The Avengers
Spider-Man 3
Spider-Man 3
Speedymanic
Banned
LOL. At least your avvy can't possibly worse than mine.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
irfan feeling left out.
And 'irfan' is your original forum name. I don't think anybody knew it was your real name (I've certainly never heard of it before). It's like how many of us still call Expendable Plainview - because it's how we originally identified him. What you're doing is just super creepy. And I don't know where you get off insinuating I've been pimping my website, when I don't have a website to pimp. Unless of course - SHOCKER coming, you're trolling.
And 'irfan' is your original forum name. I don't think anybody knew it was your real name (I've certainly never heard of it before). It's like how many of us still call Expendable Plainview - because it's how we originally identified him. What you're doing is just super creepy. And I don't know where you get off insinuating I've been pimping my website, when I don't have a website to pimp. Unless of course - SHOCKER coming, you're trolling.
:you
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