Wkd Box Office Est. 0713-1512 - cold reception for Ice Age dom, but mammoth intl
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ryutaro's mama
Member
One way or the other, next weekend...bitter tears will...
RISE
RISE
TacticalFox88
Banned
Not bad for Ice Age, good Amazing Spiderman and Brave.
Next week it'll be so fun
When Rises falls below expectations, GAF will be GLORIOUS.
What expectations exactly? Current expectations seem to be quite sensible from what I've seen thus far.
People are expecting it to break the current 2D opening weekend record effectively beating the record set by TDK.
I suspect anyone seriously expecting it to dislodge The Avengers 3 day record is going to be left disappointed.
Ninja Scooter
Member
What expectations? IT's going to make a shitload of money. That's really the only expectation and that's pretty much in the bag. Let me guess you're going to be that one annoying a-hole in here gloating when the numbers come in and it makes a few million less than Avengers?
It's not about the money. It's about sending a message.
TacticalFox88
Banned
There are still people on GAF that believe it will surpass Avengers record, which I find utterly preposterous.
Bob already took that title in every Avengers related thread.
I would say around 180 million myself. No way a 3 hour movie without 3D surcharges get any closer.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Oh man people think something is going to happen that in reality is most likely going to fall just short of happening! WHAT A BUNCH OF IDIOTS! I MUST THROW IT IN THEIR FACE!
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
The only expactations it's going to fall below are the people who think it will beat Avegers despite it's longer run time and no 3D. It's going to make crazy fucking money outside of that goal post though.
EDIT: Next week is going to be glorious though with all the Avengers VS Dark Knight shit. I'm hoping it has the higher rotten tomatoes score. That is my personal favorite troll argument to use. "1% higher for Dark Knight. Avenegers officially shit!"
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Why? Lincoln Vampire Hunter will prob be the better film, wouldn't be surprised lol. Spielberg's Lincoln is going to be your typical Oscar-bait film that gets tons of noms and wins awards. The Academy will eat that up and we'll eat it up as well early on and then come to our senses and realize it wasn't that good after all and we just fell for the hype.
Good Job Bob
Member
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Just not a fan of Oscar-bait films. Some are good but more often than not they're way overrated. There's so much politics and shady dealings going on behind the scenes, it irks me.
Speedymanic
Banned
Yup. I said as much when people were saying it wouldn't beat Avengers record breaking OW.
It's simple, you have a movie that's nearly 30mins longer and can't fleece customers by forcing them to watch 3d (by limiting the number of 2d showings).
185m is my prediction, with it being slightly higher when the actuals come in. Imax will certainly help, but that can't hope to match the extra revenue that the 3d tax brings in.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
"Prestige" filmmaking, by definition, aims not for the lowest-common denominator, but for the most moderate: not mercenary enough to be honest, not brave enough to command our interest. Nothing is more contemptibly dull than a movie made solely to win awards.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Said it way better than i could
ViewtifulJC
Banned
THAT said, it's a Spielberg prestige film, so chances are it will at least be entertaining.
All their films are made for that much. Just sounds like they budget appropriately.
Good Job Bob
Member
I am more interested to see where TDKR's total ends up. Opening Weekend is all well and good, but we have always known that TDKR would open huge. Most predictions were in the 175M+ range even before Avengers broke the 200M barrier. I am curious to see if the movie will break $500M/pass The Dark Knight's domestic total, or if there will be some drop off.
Overseas should be an easy win over TDK, although Europe's Box Office has been pretty miserable all summer. It may have some drops from TDK in some of those territories. Asia and Latin America will more than make up for it though.
Avengers has set the bar extremely high for opening weekend, domestic total, and overseas total though. I see TDKR beating Avengers (if not Harry Potter) for first day gross and definitely midnight gross. I think a lot of theatres misjudged the demand for Avengers midnight showing (my 12 screen cinema only had a single IMAX showing that was completely sold out), and that won't be the case with TDKR. It is also summer, so TDKR will benefit from better Friday matinee business. Saturday drop will be a lot steeper than the Avengers (probably even steeper than TDK's Saturday drop due to massive midnights), and Sunday will be lower as well.
Overseas should be an easy win over TDK, although Europe's Box Office has been pretty miserable all summer. It may have some drops from TDK in some of those territories. Asia and Latin America will more than make up for it though.
Avengers has set the bar extremely high for opening weekend, domestic total, and overseas total though. I see TDKR beating Avengers (if not Harry Potter) for first day gross and definitely midnight gross. I think a lot of theatres misjudged the demand for Avengers midnight showing (my 12 screen cinema only had a single IMAX showing that was completely sold out), and that won't be the case with TDKR. It is also summer, so TDKR will benefit from better Friday matinee business. Saturday drop will be a lot steeper than the Avengers (probably even steeper than TDK's Saturday drop due to massive midnights), and Sunday will be lower as well.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
TDKR will easily beat Avengers midnight. That is without question. Avengers didn't have an amazing midnight so that is easy. Topping Avengers opening day I might see, but not weekend. HP still has midnight and opening day record right now. The question is just how front loaded TDKR will be this weekend. A poster on here thinks it will do over $100 million Friday alone. Which ain't happening.
Better than madagascar to be certain.
Wafflecakes
Member
Ya not even close. The Madagascar films aren't great but at least they are funny. Ice Age is neither.
75% Rt score vs 40%.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Bad start for IA4. TAS did ok. Ted is doing very well
Except the first Ice Age movie is better than the 3 Madagascar movies combined.
How does a theater misjudge a midnight showing? Don't they just add more shows as they sell out? For example, on the first day Rises tickets were available, the theater I bought from had two midnight shows on sale. Now it has nine.
MrPink93485
Member
90m OD is within reach though, since it's looking good for 30m midnights if not more. How frontloaded it is, well that will be partially answered when the reviews come out. If this is as good as TDK, then WOM will travel quickly and it will preempt others to see it quickly during the weekend.
I don't think it beats Avengers OW though, closer to 190m, which is fine. Don't think Warner will be crying over that kind of money
Yeah, it's pretty pathetic.
Wafflecakes
Member
Last I checked Ice age 4 =/= Ice Age 1
I agree Ice Age 1 was good though.
If I had to rank both franchises: IA1=Mad2>Mad3>IA2>AI3=Mad1>IA4(probably, haven't seen yet)
Razgriz-Specter
Member
It has a better chance than people are expecting.
I have never seen a theater dictate half of their 18+ screens to a single movie for the entire opening weekend. Avengers had one 2d, two 3d and one fake IMAX screen.
TDKR has eight 2d and a fake IMAX screen.
At my theater at least.
shira
Member
Huh? This makes no sense
Boombloxer
Member
Quite.
Although it's better than the 3rd, it pales in comparison to the first two.
We might have two 500M superhero movies in one summer. Crazy.
My theater has 6 showings at midnight, all gone.
Shit's roughly 3 hours, and I'm looking forward to it.
SonicMegaDrive
Member
It seems the farting animal genre will continue to thrive for the forseeable future.
Nemesis121
Member
I don't understand the hate for TDK on GaF, it probably won't do better than Avengers at the BO, but it will be better movie...
He's saying midnights will be so huge that even a 60M Sat will result in a big Fri -> Sat drop off.
Shalashaska
Member
Doing my first midnight showing ever for TDK upcoming. Getting excited for it 
Glad to contribute to the numbers.
Glad to contribute to the numbers.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
Gaf hates the Dark Knight!? We've had like five threads for Rises already.
My city had a lot of walk up business I guess. They offered one Imax showing at the theatre I attended. There were probably 2 other theatres in the area doing midnight showings but this was the biggest one, and the only one with an IMAX screen. The film was not sold out when we reserved tickets on Tuesday before release. the film was oversold when we got there an hour before release. I don't know why they didn't open another screen (not enough staff and no one wanted to drive into work at 12am?), but they didn't. A few other people mentioned the same thing in may when we were talking about midnight showings.
You can still buy tickets to TDKR in the same theatre, but at least they are offering two midnight showing this time around (one IMAX, and one marathon session of the trilogy).
Avengers and TDK had the same midnight totals more or less. Avengers made $13M more than TDK opening day, and close to $22M more than TDK on that first Saturday. Part of the reason that the Avengers ended up being so much bigger than TDK despite having the same midnights was the fact that Avengers opened in early May and TDK opened in July. Public schools and some colleges are still in session during early May which deflates midnight and Friday matinee business compared to July releases. However, May movies have bigger Saturday bumps. Subtracting midnights, the Avengers went up about 10% on Saturday while TDK went down slightly compared to Friday.
TDKR should have Twilight level midnights (I guess somethiing close to Harry Potter is not impossible), which will infate its Friday business and lead to a big Saturday drop. With Midnights, TDK dropped close to 30% from Friday to Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if TDKR drops 40-45% from Friday to Saturday. Harry Potter 8 dropped 53%. The Avengers dropped 13% with midnights.
Also, word of mouth doesn't work the same for sequels to widely popular movies. They are almost universally more frontloaded. People already know what they are going to get. Even the good ones like Spider-man 2 are more frontloaded.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3491&p=.htm
BOM is predicting $214.7 million on OW for Batman.
BOM is predicting $214.7 million on OW for Batman.
B_Rik_Schitthaus
Banned
That's a lot of fish.
Good Job Bob
Member
I wish I could do my part and add to the slaying of Avengers opening weekend record, but my local real IMAX is sold out until Tuesday. 
Without 3D? No way.
B_Rik_Schitthaus
Banned
I wish I could do my part and add to the slaying of Avengers opening weekend record, but my local real IMAX is sold out until Tuesday.
ROAD TRIP!!!!!
cutmeamango
Banned
They will be wrong by the size of a tangerine.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Actually BOM is counting on a big midnight opening for TDK. They estimate that TDKR will make $30 million on Thursday midnight opening, which will offset the 3D difference.
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