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[maquiladora]

Nothing is a lock yet. Lots of time ahead for anything to happen.

I think Obama is pretty much a lock as it stands now but something I think a lot of people aren't either aware of or aren't taking seriously enough is the very high chance of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear infrastructure sometime between now and the election. The retaliation against Israel and perhaps against American 'interests' in the Gulf region would put Obama into a very difficult situation with some huge decisions to make. That could have a major impact on the election.

 

[Dude Abides]

Un duh. No romniderp der what lol r0ol stuf ung huh uh huh.

You're not a moron, so don't post like one.

Let me know when you have an actual argument. I'm not a moron but the jury's still out on you.

Counterpoint: Mitt Romney.

Yes, Obama's saving grace is the worst GOP candidate and campaign since 1964. It's going to be close, though.

 

[Death Dealer]

Lol at the notion that Obama's a lock, and double lol at the idea he'll win by more than 2008. PoliGAF reminds me of that apocryphal Pauline Kael quote.

Yeah it is laughable to think he will win more states, or even the same number, as in 2008.

But despite the weak economy, I still consider him the favorite to win. I don't think it will be as close as Bush's reelection victory in 2004.

He can afford to lose a lot of ground since 08 and still win reelection.

 

[Averon]

Yeah, Obama's not a lock to win, but the electoral college--as it stands today--makes him a very heavy favorite to win. Obama has many more paths to 270 EVs than Romney does.

 

[slidewinder]

Let me know when you have an actual argument. I'm not a moron but the jury's still out on you.

You're nothing. Are there any actually smart lawyers on GAF? That one type-1 diabetic guy maybe borders on intelligence, but, boy, the rest of you all are pretty sad.

Obama wins in a landslide, yadda, yadda.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Yes, Obama's saving grace is the worst GOP candidate and campaign since 1964.

And I'm not even sure Goldwater would lose that badly in today's political climate.

 

[Kevtones]

Bristol Palin!?

 

[TacticalFox88]

I think Obama is pretty much a lock as it stands now but something I think a lot of people aren't either aware of or aren't taking seriously enough is the very high chance of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear infrastructure sometime between now and the election. The retaliation against Israel and perhaps against American 'interests' in the Gulf region would put Obama into a very difficult situation with some huge decisions to make. That could have a major impact on the election.

Israel is too chickenshit to do anything without the US backing them.

 

[jaxword]

I'm sure the GOP is desperately trying its damnedest to find anything, absolutely ANYTHING, on Obama to turn into a big media headline. After the Birthers, it's obvious this election is going to go for the low blows.

Barring that, they'll probably have to manufacture one. I wouldn't be surprised if they've got people on the ground trying to cause something, ANYTHING, that will cause Obama to have to make some tough decisions, i.e. Iran or Israel. All it takes is for someone to get "caught" spying or something, make headlines, and Obama has to make some awkward public speeches.

Or maybe I just gave a bunch of ideas to some people. Oops.

 

[C.Dark.DN]

I've actually got no clue on this one.

Nixon lost a presidential race before becoming president, but I don't know of a candidate that lost a primary before being president.

Reagan. Lost to Ford who lost to Carter

Reagan lost the 1976 primary to Ford, but I guess 1976 isn't really a good example.

Edit: Ah, beaten.

I see Reagan did in 68 as well. I just been wondering because I couldn't think of one.

 

[ivysaur12]

Yep. It's still a toss up.

Except that Obama has electoral math on his side. It's not a toss-up as much as it is a close race that's leaning Obama.

 

[Marvie_3]

Can't believe he actually picked Paul Ryan. The next 3 months should be good for a laugh.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Yep. It's still a toss up.

Yeah in some fantasy land that the media like the portray, yeah, sure.

In reality? Nah. Barring some catastrophic world event, this race is as good as done. The only thing that's REALLY up for debate is just how bad Romney is going to lose.

 

[Aylinato]

And with that Obama wins reelection. Muahhahahahhahahaha my job got that much easier

 

[Mgoblue201]

Yes, Obama's saving grace is the worst GOP candidate and campaign since 1964. It's going to be close, though.

That isn't a coincidence, however. The end product of the Republicans' decades long descent into anti-intellectualism and bad economic policy is a candidate like Mitt Romney (and a field that includes Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann). They have no one but themselves to blame if they squander this opportunity. With that said, I think there is a solid chance that Obama wins. Unless another economic shock is on the horizon, there isn't much that could weaken Obama's chances (the bad economy is already weighing down his poll numbers), but a lot can still go wrong for Romney, since I am skeptical that he can engineer a good campaign.

 

[Rentahamster]

Except that Obama has electoral math on his side. It's not a toss-up as much as it is a close race that's leaning Obama.

Yeah in some fantasy land that the media like the portray, yeah, sure.

In reality? Nah. Barring some catastrophic world event, this race is as good as done. The only thing that's REALLY up for debate is just how bad Romney is going to lose.

Possibly, but it's still early. There's still a lot of time for things to happen.

 

[ivysaur12]

Possibly, but it's still early. There's still a lot of time for things to happen.

Like what? People are already dealing with the economic realities of the time, and Obama is still polling ahead of Romney both nationally and in swing states.

Save for a huge economic meltdown of the Euro, I don't see it happening.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

Like what? People are already dealing with the economic realities of the time, and Obama is still polling ahead of Romney both nationally and in swing states.

Save for a huge economic meltdown of the Euro, I don't see it happening.

Ryan gives Romney more young voters and poll shows he can win in Wisconsin with Ryan as VP.
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-vice-president-romney-mitt-wisconsin-election-2012-7

EDIT: Just got a message from my Romney app that Ryan is the VP choice. It's official. I was the first to know.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Ryan gives Romney more young voters and poll shows he can win in Wisconsin with Ryan as VP.
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-vice-president-romney-mitt-wisconsin-election-2012-7

EDIT: Just got a message from my Romney app that Ryan is the VP choice. It's official. I was the first to know.

You... you have a Romney app?

 

[Aylinato]

Ryan gives Romney more young voters and poll shows he can win in Wisconsin with Ryan as VP.
http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-vice-president-romney-mitt-wisconsin-election-2012-7

EDIT: Just got a message from my Romney app that Ryan is the VP choice. It's official. I was the first to know.

Young libertarians who are idealistic and unbending thoughts regarding how reality works. Paul Ryan is the worst pick Romney could have decided to go with. He wasn't gaining with latinos and he is going to lose without that support.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

Can't believe he actually picked Paul Ryan. The next 3 months should be good for a laugh.

I can't believe it either...what an awful pick. Sarah Palin would've been smarter. Paul Ryan appeals to nobody that wasn't going to vote for him anyway

 

[Zapages]

things will get really interesting with romney-ryan vs obama-biden... A lot of my liberal/independent friends hate obama for not doing enough... So yeah things are going to get interesting.

 

[Aylinato]

things will get really interesting with romney-ryan vs obama-biden... A lot of my liberal/independent friends hate obama for not doing enough... So yeah things are going to get interesting.

They will get over that as the thought of Paul Ryan should anger all of them.

 

[jaxword]

Biden's a complete goofball so they'll be keeping him under wraps as much as possible.

 

[Dude Abides]

That isn't a coincidence, however. The end product of the Republicans' decades long descent into anti-intellectualism and bad economic policy is a candidate like Mitt Romney (and a field that includes Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann). They have no one but themselves to blame if they squander this opportunity. With that said, I think there is a solid chance that Obama wins. Unless another economic shock is on the horizon, there isn't much that could weaken Obama's chances (the bad economy is already weighing down his poll numbers), but a lot can still go wrong for Romney, since I am skeptical that he can engineer a good campaign.

Romney, however, is not the Goldwater equivalent, ideologically. He's the equivalent of Scranton or his dad, a squish who the movement conservatives see as an echo not a choice. If he loses I think the GOP is likely to go even more hardcore crazy.

things will get really interesting with romney-ryan vs obama-biden... A lot of my liberal/independent friends hate obama for not doing enough... So yeah things are going to get interesting.

Unless one of they things they hate Obama for is not gutting medicare, Ryan shouldn't appeal to them.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

You... you have a Romney app?

Don't all the cool kids have a Romney app?

 

[ElectricBlue187]

Biden's a complete goofball so they'll be keeping him under wraps as much as possible.

At least he's likeable lol I can't wait for the debates.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Don't all the cool kids have a Romney app?

That's what I'd be saying if I had one. Then I'd laugh too hard and look around awkwardly for reassurance.

 

[Loudninja]

Team Romney’s Official Paul Ryan Bio

U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan is in his seventh term in Congress representing Wisconsin’s First Congressional District. He is Chairman of the House Budget Committee, where he has worked tirelessly leading the effort to reign in federal spending and increase accountability to taxpayers. He also serves on the House Ways and Means Committee, where he has focused on simplifying the tax code and making health care more affordable and accessible.

In January 2010, Ryan gained attention nationwide after unveiling his “Roadmap for America’s Future,” a proposal to eliminate the federal deficit, reform the tax code, and preserve entitlements for future generations.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/team-romneys-official-paul-ryan-bio

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

That's what I'd be saying if I had one. Then I'd laugh too hard and look around awkwardly for reassurance.

I don't have to worry. Nobody is in this basement with me.

 

[BigDug13]

So does this lock Wisconsin to be Romney's? Did he make this pick just to guarantee a win in a swing state? Or is it like the McCain "let's find a woman to counter the black Presidential candidate" with a "let's find a younger guy to counter the younger Presidential candidate?"

 

[Aylinato]

At least he's likeable lol I can't wait for the debates.

Biden is one of the nicest politicans in the US today. Ryan argues semantics, which as I have seen gets him extremely condescending towards anyone he is arguing with, Biden won't even care, but Ryan will get destroyed in debates. Not because he isn't arguing facts, but because he has the personality of Nixon, but not the intelligence nor the political skills Nixon had.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Don't all the cool kids have a Romney app?

Cool isn't exactly the word I'd use.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

So does this lock Wisconsin to be Romney's? Did he make this pick just to guarantee a win in a swing state? Or is it like the McCain "let's find a woman to counter the black Presidential candidate" with a "let's find a younger guy to counter the younger Presidential candidate?"

"let's find a guy who wants to repeal the civil rights amendment"

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

So does this lock Wisconsin to be Romney's? Did he make this pick just to guarantee a win in a swing state? Or is it like the McCain "let's find a woman to counter the black Presidential candidate" with a "let's find a younger guy to counter the younger Presidential candidate?"

Nothing is a lock, but I saw a PPP poll that says it really helps.
I agree. Ryan makes Obama look old and status quo.

 

[Aylinato]

So does this lock Wisconsin to be Romney's? Did he make this pick just to guarantee a win in a swing state? Or is it like the McCain "let's find a woman to counter the black Presidential candidate" with a "let's find a younger guy to counter the younger Presidential candidate?"

Picking a white extremist when you are already losing favorability amongst moderates doesn't help your chances in the overall election. Romney has no idea what he's doing, but his Koch brother donors know what they want.

 

[Manmademan]

Yeah it is laughable to think he will win more states, or even the same number, as in 2008.

But despite the weak economy, I still consider him the favorite to win. I don't think it will be as close as Bush's reelection victory in 2004.

He can afford to lose a lot of ground since 08 and still win reelection.

2008 was basically a landslide for democrats. Every state that was conceivably contestable went their way, including some (North Carolina and Indiana) that were completely out of left field. Even missouri only went republican by about 1 percent or less.

You won't really see that again, barring some really ridiculous meltdowns by the Romney campaign. Indiana is off the table, but every other state obama won in 2008 is currently leaning his way, including NC. Obama could lose some pretty big states (VA, NC, FL) and STILL win by a comfortable margin.

It's not impossible for Romney to win, but it's extremely unlikely.

So does this lock Wisconsin to be Romney's? Did he make this pick just to guarantee a win in a swing state? Or is it like the McCain "let's find a woman to counter the black Presidential candidate" with a "let's find a younger guy to counter the younger Presidential candidate?"

1.) No, not at all. Wisconsin isn't a swing state- Obama has consistently been polling ahead there by about 6 or 7 points all year, and Paul Ryan had some pretty heavy unfavorables there earlier in the year. If he had ANY solid cred within the state he would have ran for the open senate seat earlier this year. Picking Ryan is not about putting wisconsin in play. Trying to swing Ohio or Florida via portman or rubio makes a lot more sense if that was the goal.

2.) Picking Ryan is about energizing conservatives who were losing patience with the Romney campaign, as well as trying to change the narrative to anything else besides mitt's tax returns and disastrous foreign policy tour. unfortunately doing this means abandoning the "jobs and economy" narrative and making the debate about ludicrous and irresponsible debt reduction strategies, which will not go over well with seniors and independents.

 

[fritolay]

The older people, many who may have come out and vote Republican, are now faced with this:

1 guy who is Mormon, which older Christians do not like
1 guy who wants to screw with the government programs that they like, such as medicare

Now maybe they don't like which way the country is going and want to or can blame Obama, but damn the other "choice" they have and even if he is Republican anyway, is not too favorable.

In my mind, the Republican party screwed up big time.

Truly the 2 front runners, are not ideal candidates for many many people which is why the whole political process and the money is a bunch of crap.

I feel sorry for people of US.

 

[IrishNinja]

"let's find a guy who wants to repeal the civil rights amendment"

a white extremist

havent really followed Ryan, you guys have links on these?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I agree. Ryan makes Obama look old and status quo.

Dude, you're going to make me choke on shitty ramen if you keep saying stuff like this.

 

[fritolay]

The typical Republican base across the bible belt does not want Romney. They don't want a Mormon. That is all.

 

[Aylinato]

havent really followed Ryan, you guys have links on these?

I'm on my phone, but google Paul Ryan's budget proposal. He wants to cut every single program that isn't defense and then increase defense spending. He says he represents catholicism across the nation and got shot down by all the bishops and 60%+ of Catholics who think he doesn't even give a half-assed representation of what Catholics believe is helping the poor(his idea is cut all programs that help the poor)

 

[IrishNinja]

The typical Republican base across the bible belt does not want Romney. They don't want a Mormon. That is all.

"Democrats fall in love. Republicans fall in line."

I'm on my phone, but google Paul Ryan's budget proposal. He wants to cut every single program that isn't defense and then increase defense spending. He says he represents catholicism across the nation and got shot down by all the bishops and 60%+ of Catholics who think he doesn't even give a half-assed representation of what Catholics believe is helping the poor(his idea is cut all programs that help the poor)

yeah, i saw that & it's shitty enough to make me not a fan of much about the guy - but i'm not seeing where it makes him a white extremist though.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

Dude, you're going to make me choke on shitty ramen if you keep saying stuff like this.

Don't eat ramen, get that spicy bowl noodle soup. Much better.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Don't eat ramen, get that spicy bowl noodle soup. Much better.

I know, but I needed something to settle an upset stomach and it was the only thing around.

 

[fritolay]

I'm on my phone, but google Paul Ryan's budget proposal. He wants to cut every single program that isn't defense and then increase defense spending. He says he represents catholicism across the nation and got shot down by all the bishops and 60%+ of Catholics who think he doesn't even give a half-assed representation of what Catholics believe is helping the poor(his idea is cut all programs that help the poor)

Ask the teachers at the University of Wisconsin what they think of Romney. Some are just hanging out looking for a job, so I am sure they will tell you. The others, they are doing the job of 2 or 3 people in some areas, they too will let you know.

 

[scorcho]

That isn't a coincidence, however. The end product of the Republicans' decades long descent into anti-intellectualism and bad economic policy is a candidate like Mitt Romney (and a field that includes Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann). They have no one but themselves to blame if they squander this opportunity. With that said, I think there is a solid chance that Obama wins. Unless another economic shock is on the horizon, there isn't much that could weaken Obama's chances (the bad economy is already weighing down his poll numbers), but a lot can still go wrong for Romney, since I am skeptical that he can engineer a good campaign.

Agreed. I wasn't so sure about this 3 months ago, but Romney's failure as a candidate at this early a stage is shocking considering he went through a legitimate primary battle. With Ryan as the VP choice and the completely-out-of-left-field request to make his private sector experience off limits, it seems to me like he's lost control of his entire campaign.

 

[Mrs. Manky]

Donated to the campaign this morning. If this turns out to be real, I will donate again. Double.

Did Ramada give him permission to use their logo?

 

[Aylinato]

"Democrats fall in love. Republicans fall in line."



yeah, i saw that & it's shitty enough to make me not a fan of much about the guy - but i'm not seeing where it makes him a white extremist though.

Cutting every item in the budget except defense isn't extreme?

 

[Link Man]

"let's find a guy who wants to repeal the civil rights amendment"

Wait, what?