Support NeoGAF

[Buddha Beam]

Of all the swing states, Obama can lose Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, and Iowa and still win 270 electoral votes with just Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (those last two he was already going to win, folks).

I'm beginning to think that Romneys plan is to actually be so horrible that Democrats think the election is a lock, don't vote because there's no way Romney will win and then... Romney wins because nobody voted for Obama, much to everyone's horror.

 

[Officerrob]

Without Florida, Romney is going to lose. This is what makes this pick make no sense what so ever because there is nobody who can argue that he made winning Florida much more difficult.

 

[YoungHav]

Paul Ryan comes off as a former college date rapist.

 

[Zzoram]

I actually think this was mostly Mittens. It tells me that he's still paranoid about the GOP base, which seems really silly at this point in the game.

Yep, Romney should've run as a moderate and gunned for swing voters. The GOP base won't vote for Obama ever, Romney already had their vote.

 

[Tim-E]

I actually think this was mostly Mittens. It tells me that he's still paranoid about the GOP base, which seems really silly at this point in the game.

I agree. Those people were going to vote for him regardless, so I don't know why he feels the need to pander as far right as he can when he knows their votes aren't moving. Independents are not going to be won over by shouting that Obama supports welfare queens and supporting the privatization of medicare and social security.

 

[Jarmel]

Are there any good political analysis of the pair now? I saw 538 and it seemed like he was throwing his hands up in the air and saying he's not really sure why Romeny's doing it other than he's losing.

 

[Chichikov]

Who even cares about the theory when doing P90X? You lift weights, you do pushups, you do pullups while being instructed step-by-step by some tanned dude. It couldn't be simpler, and it works just fine.

If you care about efficiency and health, you'd want the best training regiment.
Personally, I don't know of a better way to figure out which system is best than science.
And P90X pretty much rejects science.

But I think I derailed this thread enough.

 

[alstein]

I agree. Those people were going to vote for him regardless, so I don't know why he feels the need to pander as far right as he can when he knows their votes aren't moving. Independents are not going to be swoon over by shouting that Obama supports welfare queens and supporting the privatization of medicare and social security.

He might have been afraid of a split party, or those folks staying home. Maybe overstated fears, but they are there.

Plenty of moderate Republicans have been voted out in primaries the last 2-3 years.

This election is going to be a lot closer than people on here think right now- and if it's close the Electoral College advantage will go the Republicans.

 

[ThisWreckage]

His objective is to rally the right. That's what this pick does. He's pandering. Voter turnout is low in this country. To say that the right was going to vote for him regardless is ridiculous because almost no one votes to begin with. On either side.

 

[Zzoram]

He might have been afraid of a split party, or those folks staying home. Maybe overstated fears, but they are there.

Plenty of moderate Republicans have been voted out in primaries the last 2-3 years.

This election is going to be a lot closer than people on here think right now- and if it's close the Electoral College advantage will go the Republicans.

If Romney ran as a moderate, do you really think the people who think Obama is a Kenyan Muslim Communist Dictator would not go out and vote for the Republican?

Romney couldn't choose Rubio or Jindal because the GOP voters he's weakest with are the ones who are scared of brown people.

 

[B-Dubs]

Are there any good political analysis of the pair now? I saw 538 and it seemed like he was throwing his hands up in the air and saying he's not really sure why Romeny's doing it other than he's losing.

That's pretty much it. The pick makes no mathematical sense, it puts Florida in jeopardy, looses Romney NC, and doesn't even deliver WI. It's a pick to shake things up, that's it.

 

[gutter_trash]

I don't understand how blue collar people could vote for a guy that wants to privatize social security and replace medicare with vouchers.

why do low income people vote against their best interest?

 

[outunderthestars]

Yep, Romney should've run as a moderate and gunned for swing voters. The GOP base won't vote for Obama ever, Romney already had their vote.

Romney would not have made it out of the primaries running as a moderate.

 

[Zzoram]

I don't understand how blue collar people could vote for a guy that wants to privatize social security and replace medicare with vouchers.

why do low income people vote against their best interest?

Because they are poorly educated, which tends to cause and be caused by low income.

 

[Karsticles]

If Romney ran as a moderate, do you really think the people who think Obama is a Kenyan Muslim Communist Dictator would not go out and vote for the Republican?

Romney couldn't choose Rubio or Jindal because the GOP voters he's weakest with are the ones who are scared of brown people.

Exactly. Playing to the right is what lost McCain the last election. The right has no one to vote for besides Romney, no matter how they feel about him. It's not possible for Romney to piss them off enough for an Obama vote. We're talking about a party that proudly says "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line."

Because they are poorly educated, which tends to cause and be caused by low income.

Or they actually believe in less government involvement in their lives. Crazy, yah?

 

[Kabouter]

538 did a "ideology model". Very interesting:

I'm playing around with an electoral map if Romney loses Florida. It isn't good.

No Wallace because he wouldn't fit on the chart?

 

[Zzoram]

Romney would not have made it out of the primaries running as a moderate.

I think he would, he still only won because he was deemed "electable" while the GOP preferred everyone but Romney. His conservative pandering didn't really convince anyone he was as conservative as the other candidates.

 

[SnakeXs]

I don't understand how blue collar people could vote for a guy that wants to privatize social security and replace medicare with vouchers.

why do low income people vote against their best interest?

God.

And amazing fear tactics on nerve touching issues.

 

[alstein]

His objective is to rally the right. That's what this pick does. He's pandering. Voter turnout is low in this country. To say that the right was going to vote for him regardless is ridiculous because almost no one votes to begin with. On either side.

Turnout for presidential elections is getting over 60% these days. It's rising due to the hyperpartisanship- this is why you're seeing the right try some voter suppression tactics where they can. This is why I have concerns for FL.

Won't be a problem in NC- early voting is pretty established here , and I don't think we have any stupid voter ID laws (and they'd hurt Republicans as much as Dems here)

 

[outunderthestars]

God.

And amazing fear tactics on nerve touching issues.

This. The Gays and the Mexicans are coming for them.

Turnout for presidential elections is getting over 60% these days. It's rising due to the hyperpartisanship- this is why you're seeing the right try some voter suppression tactics where they can. This is why I have concerns for FL.

Won't be a problem in NC- early voting is pretty established here , and I don't think we have any stupid voter ID laws (and they'd hurt Republicans as much as Dems here)

Early Voting is awesome in NC. It will be interesting to see if Obama can put NC back in play this election.

 

[Buddha Beam]

He might have been afraid of a split party, or those folks staying home. Maybe overstated fears, but they are there.

Plenty of moderate Republicans have been voted out in primaries the last 2-3 years.

This election is going to be a lot closer than people on here think right now- and if it's close the Electoral College advantage will go the Republicans.

How do you come to that conclusion? Everything is pointing to Romney having to run the table and grab every so called swing state to win.

 

[pigeon]

This election is going to be a lot closer than people on here think right now- and if it's close the Electoral College advantage will go the Republicans.

...how do you figure this?

 

[Bombadil]

I don't understand how blue collar people could vote for a guy that wants to privatize social security and replace medicare with vouchers.

why do low income people vote against their best interest?

It's easy. You vilify the concept of government intervention using slippery slope arguments like "death panels" and "they'll take your guns" and repeatedly use the word "freedom" as part of your platform. Pretty soon, the average American is confused but already resents the government for taxing his paycheck. So, naturally, the American government is an easy target. The republicans are just the shills for corporations that don't want to be regulated and would like nothing more than to charge you a fee for breathing.

 

[metalslimer]

Or they actually believe in less government involvement in their lives. Crazy, yah?

Yet they don't mind when the government is involved in their lives when it directly benefits them. Seeeople telling the government to stay out of their healthcare while on Medicaid/Medicare.

 

[Zzoram]

I can't see Romney-Ryan doing worse than McCain-Palin but who knows.



By the way, how is Romney running as fiscally responsible when he's hiding how he manages his own finances?

 

[empty vessel]

There are entire economic schools dedicated to what is referred to as 'trickle-down' economics. To say that it has no academic integrity is to ignore huge swathes of peer-reviewed literature. To assign an intention on those that believe in the theory behind it is really quite ridiculous.

There is no legitimate academic integrity in supply side economics, and there never has been.

"Not only is there no major department that is supply-side in orientation; there is no economist whom one might call a supply-sider in any major [economics] department. ... Where, then, did supply-siders come from? The answer is that they came from the fringes of economics: from journalism, from congressional staff positions, from consulting firms; nowadays most of them are employed by conservative think tanks. They promoted their ideas not through papers in academic journals but in op-ed pieces and articles in semi-popular magazines like The Public Interest. Above all, the cutting edge of the supply-side movement consisted of the group that Robert Bartley assembled to preach on the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal."

Paul Krugman, Peddling Prosperity at 85.

http://books.google.com/books?id=GcmvijkDrEcC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA85#v=onepage&q&f=false

Also, Bill Mitchell on supply-siders and Art Laffer, comedian.

 

[bananas]

He might have been afraid of a split party, or those folks staying home. Maybe overstated fears, but they are there.

Plenty of moderate Republicans have been voted out in primaries the last 2-3 years.

This election is going to be a lot closer than people on here think right now- and if it's close the Electoral College advantage will go the Republicans.

The electoral college favors Obama. Obama can lose every swing state except Florida and get to 270.

 

[Gary Whitta]

The Paul Ryan info dumps now begin in earnest. Truly terrifying.

http://grist.org/news/meet-paul-ryan-who-is-now-running-for-something

One of the biggest fundraisers in Congress thanks to major backing by banking and investment interests:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...p-house-fundraiser-with-backing-by-banks.html

 

[apana]

If Romney ran as a moderate, do you really think the people who think Obama is a Kenyan Muslim Communist Dictator would not go out and vote for the Republican?

Romney couldn't choose Rubio or Jindal because the GOP voters he's weakest with are the ones who are scared of brown people.

Rubio was the most popular choice among conservatives and Jindal is the popular governor of Louisiana which is a state in the deep south. Both would have been better choices than Ryan who alienates a lot more people than he brings in.

 

[Chichikov]

No Wallace because he wouldn't fit on the chart?

D'Angelo, shut your mouth.

 

[YoungHav]

Romney should have ran this election as a moderate or progressive. The racist dummies aren't voting for Obama anyway so he'd get their vote. And he could get those dems disenfranchised w/Obama.

 

[gutter_trash]

This. The Gays and the Mexicans are coming for them.

Jeb Bush has been very vocal about the importance of the Latino vote and warned the far-right that it is political suicide to demonize them.

Jeb will run in 2016 and will use his marriage, faith and appreciation for Latinos to try to regain his brother's numbers among Latino voters.

 

[Bento]

Rubio was the most popular choice among conservatives and Jindal is the popular governor of Louisiana which is a state in the deep south. Both would have been better choices than Ryan who alienates a lot more people than he brings in.

Would not be surprised if they declined Romneys invitation and are gunning for the 2016 election themselves )

 

[pigeon]

Yet they don't mind when the government is involved in their lives when it directly benefits them. Seeeople telling the government to stay out of their healthcare while on Medicaid/Medicare.

This isn't really fair. There are genuine, reasonable people in America who are also Reagan Republicans -- and that shouldn't be surprising, since he did win 49 states that one time. The key characteristics they share are a strong pro-life stance and a heavy distrust of government. And maybe some unexamined racism.

That said, even they are unlikely to support tax cuts on the rich and the destruction of Medicare. Or, really, a Northeastern businessman in general.

 

[Ponn]

Without Florida, Romney is going to lose. This is what makes this pick make no sense what so ever because there is nobody who can argue that he made winning Florida much more difficult.

As pointed out last night it doesn't matter. Florida voted for Rick Scott, the people here will vote against their interest in a heartbeat without a second thought. You know how many grandparents here are forwarding and posting all those stupid "Obummer" and "Moochelle" pictures and fully believe Obama is a Kenyan muslim? They are old, retired and on medication, they don't give a shit anymore and are past the stage of thinking for themselves. It is whatever Fox News tells them and thats it. Those that are still in the game and actually put thought into their decisons are retired here on their own wealth living in gated communities, might as well as consider them retired WASPS.

 

[Tim-E]

He might have been afraid of a split party, or those folks staying home. Maybe overstated fears, but they are there.

Plenty of moderate Republicans have been voted out in primaries the last 2-3 years.

This election is going to be a lot closer than people on here think right now- and if it's close the Electoral College advantage will go the Republicans.

The electoral math gives no advantages to the Republicans. Obama just needs to win Kerry's 2004 EV + New Mexico + one or two other swing states, most of which have Obama leading. Romney has to win almost all of them.

 

[metalslimer]

Jeb Bush has been very vocal about the importance of the Latino vote and warned the far-right that it is political suicide to demonize them.

Jeb will run in 2016 and will use his marriage, faith and appreciation for Latinos to try to regain his brother's numbers among Latino voters.

If the economy is still shaky in 2016 he could potentially do well as I don't see anyone so far on the democratic side who comes close to Obama's charisma. Will people actually be willing to get past the family association though?

This isn't really fair. There are genuine, reasonable people in America who are also Reagan Republicans -- and that shouldn't be surprising, since he did win 49 states that one time. The key characteristics they share are a strong pro-life stance and a heavy distrust of government. And maybe some unexamined racism.

Considering Reagan was probably more intrusive with the government than Obama has been and even more "fiscally unconservative" I don't think they know who they voted for. Strong distrust of the government and Reagan support do not logically mix.

 

[Gruco]

538 did a "ideology model". Very interesting

Just to be clear, 538 didn't "do" that model in the sense of having anything to do with it's creation. NOMINATE has been around a while. Though it is interesting to see how the VPs stack up on it.

 

[outunderthestars]

Jeb Bush has been very vocal about the importance of the Latino vote and warned the far-right that it is political suicide to demonize them.

Jeb will run in 2016 and will use his marriage, faith and appreciation for Latinos to try to regain his brother's numbers among Latino voters.

This is true. The demographics of the electorate are changing. Even Fox News now has a latino focused website and rumors of a tv network coming.

 

[bananas]

As pointed out last night it doesn't matter. Florida voted for Rick Scott, the people here will vote against their interest in a heartbeat without a second thought. You know how many grandparents here are forwarding and posting all those stupid "Obummer" and "Moochelle" pictures and fully believe Obama is a Kenyan muslim? They are old, retired and on medication, they don't give a shit anymore and are past the stage of thinking for themselves. It is whatever Fox News tells them and thats it.

That was a midterm election. And Rick Scott barely won. There's no way he would survive a general election.

 

[pigeon]

As pointed out last night it doesn't matter. Florida voted for Rick Scott, the people here will vote against their interest in a heartbeat without a second thought. You know how many grandparents here are forwarding and posting all those stupid "Obummer" and "Moochelle" pictures and fully believe Obama is a Kenyan muslim? They are old, retired and on medication, they don't give a shit anymore and are past the stage of thinking for themselves. It is whatever Fox News tells them and thats it.

The reason people think that the elderly don't care about Medicare cuts is because for the last fifty years nobody has been willing to run on a platform of Medicare cuts.

Somebody is now.

 

[Clevinger]

Paul Ryan seems like the type of guy when he hears that there are too many people on food stamps his solution is to get rid of the food stamps.

Ryan seems like the type of guy who survived off welfare as a kid and young adult and then when he no longer needs it believes it's immoral and wants to destroy it.

Wait, no, he is that guy.

 

[gutter_trash]

If the economy is still shaky in 2016 he could potentially do well as I don't see anyone so far on the democratic side who comes close to Obama's charisma. Will people actually be willing to get past the family association though?

Americans have short term memory, they think Reagan is a saint without looking at his record

 

[Dan]

Yet they don't mind when the government is involved in their lives when it directly benefits them. Seeeople telling the government to stay out of their healthcare while on Medicaid/Medicare.

Or look at all the business owners who come forward for Romney and are revealed to get tons of government help that they pretend is meaningless or doesn't count. Government is great when it's protecting their interests and lining their pocketbooks, not when it's helping others.

 

[outunderthestars]

Ryan seems like the type of guy who survived off welfare as a kid and young adult and then when he no longer needs it believes it's immoral and wants to destroy it.

Wait, no, he is that guy.

Citation please.

 

[Kad5]

Republicans are the perfect example of hypocrites.

 

[Y2Kev]

The only thing I really disagree with is this notion from the left that the "tea party would have voted for him anyway. Isn't there very real stay-at-home risk?

 

[pigeon]

Or look at all the business owners who come forward for Romney and are revealed to get tons of government help that they pretend is meaningless or doesn't count. Government is great when it's protecting their interests and lining their pocketbooks, not when it's helping others.

Fundamental attribution error, writ large. The polls show that nobody thinks anybody they actually know is receiving unreasonable government aid -- maybe not even anybody in their neighborhood -- but that SOMEBODY OUT THERE clearly is. It's the same reason that people all hate unions and yet universally would join one if they had the chance.

 

[Tim-E]

Citation please.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79592.html

9. Already collected Social Security. After Ryan’s father passed away, he saved Social Security survivor’s benefits to pay for attending Miami University, where Ryan double majored in economics and political science in 1992.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79592.html#ixzz23GRtGKop

 

[Volimar]

5 Things Mitt Doesn't Want You to Know About Paul Ryan

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/things-mitt-romney-paul-ryan/story?id=16978269#.UCamT6NmPAk

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79592.html

9. Already collected Social Security. After Ryan’s father passed away, he saved Social Security survivor’s benefits to pay for attending Miami University, where Ryan double majored in economics and political science in 1992.

Interesting. How can you oppose something that gave you such a leg up?