BertramCooper
Banned
Ryan's family owns a very lucrative construction business, if I remember correctly.
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Mitt Romney announces Paul Ryan as running mate
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Ryan's family owns a very lucrative construction business, if I remember correctly.
No. The Tea Party HATE HATE HATE Obama.
outunderthestars
Banned
His father died young and he and his mother survived off Social Security, and he even went to college because of it.
It's in the long New Yorker article on him, though I don't have a link to it. It's really good and informative.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Then why would they vote Republican?
1. Alex Sink was a mediocre candidate at best
2. It was a midterm election, which greatly favors Republican candidates
3. 2010 was the year of the Tea Party
All that and Rick Scott still barely, barely won.
And he's now probably the most hated political figure in the history of the state.
Guns, god, gays.
You're assuming the people here are doing the research though. You know what the Romney ads and Republican ads on TV are spouting against any Democrat candidates including one particular smear ad against Obama? You got it, '"Obama is going to cut your Medicare" and "So and so voted for Obamacare to cut your medicare" That and Fox news is all they need to believe it. You should have seen the freaking freaking picketers lining up a couple weeks when Obama was here in Jacksonville. Facts mean shit to these people.
If Obama can't get the people that voted for him last time to the polls again this year I would be really worried about Florida. Plus you have the unknown of how Obama coming out pro gay-marriage will effect the black vote here in a heavy southern church-centric state.
Thats an overstatement. He's speaking at the Republican Convention and he still has the same strong supporters. It's just the people that didn't vote against him last time are now pissed they didn't. My whole extended family still talks positive about him. His next election will not be a landslide loss, if he does. This state is fucked.
The GOP is planning on disenfranchising the blacks there anyways so it might not matter how they feel about Obama being pro-gay marriage.
metalslimer
Member
Oh well even without Florida Obama's is destroying Romney in Ohio. It's really nothing to worry about. Oh and I believe polls have shown that black support of Obama has not decreased even after the gay marriage thing. Black people are much more worried about other issues than gay marriage. Even people in the church I've seen say they are disappointed but they sure as hell are not voting for Romney.
2008 proved that the black presidential vote is not tied to morals and religion. Hispanics and Blacks will vote for Obama and vote against gay marriage if it were a voting option.
Unlike Republicans, minorities can have multiple frames of mind its not all inclusive.
outunderthestars
Banned
Looking at Ryan, some facets of his life seem at odds with the idea that Romney is trying to use as the centerpiece of his campaign: his business experience. Ryan appears to be a career politician. Has he had a real job outside of politics?
I don't know. Cheney had alot of power because he had no further political ambitions. Ryan clearly has his eyes on the Presidency at a later date. I think that is the major reason why he accepted the VP slot. Even if ROmney doesn't win (and the polls don't show Romney doing all that well) Ryan gets increased visibility and recognition for a Presidential run in four years.
I don't know. Cheney had alot of power because he had no further political ambitions. Ryan clearly has his eyes on the Presidency at a later date. I think that is the major reason why he accepted the VP slot. Even if ROmney doesn't win (and the polls don't show Romney doing all that well) Ryan gets increased visibility and recognition for a Presidential run in four years.
It's not an unknown. The idea that African-American voters will stay home rather than vote for an African-American President to be reelected, especially after all the racist crap he's dealt with, is really completely oblivious to the reality of racism in America. "By any means necessary."
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I think several things added together explain the pick:
1. Romney knows he's losing. This is not the pick of someone that thinks he's winning.
2. This is Romney's least-damaging analysis of the situation and something of a hail mary ... at halftime. What are his other options? Rubio was boxed out by Obama's DREAM act adoption, but he might have brought FLA. Portman made sense, since he might've brought OH, but there's the whole "how is this guy different than Bush?" thing since he was the budget secretary. Pawlenty and Jindal are the same guy, one only slightly more exciting than sour milk, and he ruined his chances years ago with the SOTU response (lol). That leaves outliers and just silly last-effort attempts, like Trump, Patreus, Jeb, and then others that also aren't ready/aren't willing to do the job.
3. Romney had the Ryan plan around his neck anyway. This is actually quite Rovian. First, bring in the guy to defend it, then run from it, then accuse the President of the same things in Ryan's plan (see the bit about cutting medicare, which actually is in Ryan's plan).
4. "Diversity"
5. A gambit to go after vulnerable northern states? I'm not sure this makes sense, but hey, why not Bachmann? Why not Scott Walker? Why not one of the bikers at Sturgiss? Were the neo nazis in Idaho not returning your calls?
6. Or, this really is a terrible pick made by a terrible candidate and a last-ditch effort to make a good run of things, and maybe save his post-run career at the same time. If the plan was to blame Romney for not being conservative enough, now they'll have a harder time doing so.
My theory? All of the above really. Mitt knows he's losing, it's the least-terrible realistic option, it's a home run swing, there is some stump tactics going on here (I guess), and it's about saving face. I think it clears the way for Jeb in 2016, reduces the tea party to further rubbles, and gives Romney his best chances at a post-election political career somewhere else, if he opts-out of taking over Bank of America or something similarly disgusting.
1. Romney knows he's losing. This is not the pick of someone that thinks he's winning.
2. This is Romney's least-damaging analysis of the situation and something of a hail mary ... at halftime. What are his other options? Rubio was boxed out by Obama's DREAM act adoption, but he might have brought FLA. Portman made sense, since he might've brought OH, but there's the whole "how is this guy different than Bush?" thing since he was the budget secretary. Pawlenty and Jindal are the same guy, one only slightly more exciting than sour milk, and he ruined his chances years ago with the SOTU response (lol). That leaves outliers and just silly last-effort attempts, like Trump, Patreus, Jeb, and then others that also aren't ready/aren't willing to do the job.
3. Romney had the Ryan plan around his neck anyway. This is actually quite Rovian. First, bring in the guy to defend it, then run from it, then accuse the President of the same things in Ryan's plan (see the bit about cutting medicare, which actually is in Ryan's plan).
4. "Diversity"
5. A gambit to go after vulnerable northern states? I'm not sure this makes sense, but hey, why not Bachmann? Why not Scott Walker? Why not one of the bikers at Sturgiss? Were the neo nazis in Idaho not returning your calls?
6. Or, this really is a terrible pick made by a terrible candidate and a last-ditch effort to make a good run of things, and maybe save his post-run career at the same time. If the plan was to blame Romney for not being conservative enough, now they'll have a harder time doing so.
My theory? All of the above really. Mitt knows he's losing, it's the least-terrible realistic option, it's a home run swing, there is some stump tactics going on here (I guess), and it's about saving face. I think it clears the way for Jeb in 2016, reduces the tea party to further rubbles, and gives Romney his best chances at a post-election political career somewhere else, if he opts-out of taking over Bank of America or something similarly disgusting.
My sister and brother in laws entire church community is Anti-Obama. The idea that Blacks will vote for him just because of the racism is also unfounded. The anti-gay facebook and twitter from them and the countless likes and comments they get from their relatives and church are astounding.
Gary Whitta
Member
The Tea Party isn't the entire base. If Romney already had the base locked up he wouldn't have needed Ryan.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
Ryan is a career politician, I believe, which somewhat nullifies Romney's criticism of the lack of Obama's business experience.
BertramCooper
Banned
He has the based locked up. What he doesn't have is the insane level of enthusiasm that Obama's supporters had in '08, but that was never going to happen.
outunderthestars
Banned
Gary, This will be the first U.S. Presidential election you are able to vote in, isn't it?
How does it look from an outsider's perspective?
It is so insane to think that Obama could lose Ohio even though Romney opposed the auto industry bailout. I mean, I'm all for being more than an one issue voter, but in this state, the bailout was definitely the difference between a recession and a depression. Still, it could happen.
The base hates Obama too. All he has to do is put Obama's face up with the word Communist for 30 seconds on TV ads in every state and he'd get as much of the GOP base vote as a moderate as he would pandering to the base.
outunderthestars
Banned
Well currently Obama is up by about 5% in the polls of Ohio voters.
I find it especially despicable for people that use government benefits to later all call for cuts/abolishment/refuse to pay taxes to support it. The selfishness to be able to do this is unbelievable.
The fact that it's such a tiny margin is kind of crazy. If Obama didn't bail out the big 3, Ohio would be a wasteland right now.
Obama is looking very safe in Ohio.
There are numerous advantages for Ryan, but I can't picture how Romney is at all comfortable with the idea. Frankly, Ryan have more Republican and Media influence than Romney ever had. It just seems like a case where Romney will need to get an ok from Ryan before doing anything.
outunderthestars
Banned
Well he also went to a public university, yet has called for substantial cuts to Pell Grants and other aid programs to help people attend those same universities.
I am constantly shocked by how many people use publicly financed services to achieve wealth and success, yet turn around and attack them as soon as they no longer need them.
BertramCooper
Banned
By Ohio standards, 5% is a huge margin.
Karsticles
Member
Because Republicans are a mixed bunch made up of libertarians, religious zealots, and neocons. Most conservatives recognize that the party is shit, but it's less shit than the Democrats. They think that Republicans aren't making government smaller, but they know Democrats will make it a lot bigger. They also don't feel like there are any alternatives, since we have a two party system.
Gary Whitta
Member
Yes, I just missed 2008. And I don't consider myself an outsider.
Voting for Obama here. In rural bumfuck Ohio that's tantamount to raping a goat in a farmer's market.
Romney being honest earlier with his introductory speech today.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Oh no, the Tea Party was formed because of Obama.
How are the politicians who passed this not in prison?
GitarooMan
Member
I can't wait to hear how Romney/Ryan handle foreign policy in the debates, should be good for some laughs.
Dude Abides
Banned
maquiladora
Member
There's nothing in the NY Mag article about Ryan going to college on Social Security survivor benefits.
The New Yorker profile has a bit more about Ryan's reaction to his father's death and his education (but it also doesn't mention survivor benefits).
So, reading Chait talk about how Ryan's nomination completes the capture of the party by movement conservatives, and following a few links lead me to an old article on the creation of Priorities USA which had this fascinating tidbit:
Apparently Republicans have become so cartoonishly evil that the sheer absurdity of their platform insulates them from criticism. Hopefully the Ryan pick breaks up that disbelief a bit.
By being a giant douche.
Probably posted already.
Ryan/Romney ad from Obama
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWyk-Mr6cfc&feature=player_embedded
Ryan/Romney ad from Obama
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWyk-Mr6cfc&feature=player_embedded
He obviously sees his fight to limit Obama/the federal government as akin to what De la Rocha was singing about.
Such as maverick!
So, since the presidential election is pretty much decided unless you've deluded yourself into believing that Romney can carry PA, Ohio, and Florida, let's talk about something much more interesting: The Senate and the House.
There's no question that the Democrats will lose some seats in the Senate (if just because of how many are up for reelection), but it's mixed if they will lose the Senate in earnest.
This was posted in May by Nate Silver:
Clearly, a lot has changed since then, but this could be a good starting place.
I've seen less on individual House candidates. Anyone seen any data?
Yep this pick is definitely going to put Romney on the defensive. This also is becoming more and more a referendum on health care as a whole.
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