Phonomezer
Banned
Is Gabe's vision free games, Kickstarter and devaluing IPs with 90% sale prices? Yuck.
Gabe Newell: Big companies won't stay relevant.
- Thread starter Archie
- Start date
MR BLACKMAGIK
Member
What a joke. Sure some will fail, some will succeed. But to think that we will come to a point where everything becomes "indy" and there is no need for publishers is ridiculous. Kickstarter will never be big enough to become the only means to creating a game. There will always be a market for big AAA games.
Stahsky
A passionate embrace, a beautiful memory lingers.
DiscoJer
Member
I dunno. I see games becoming like Hollywood, if it's not already.
You see a lot of consolidation, so there are only a handful of really big companies that pump out blockbusters, with a lesser amount of middling stuff (probably digital only) and the occasional indie sleeper hit from outside the system.
You see a lot of consolidation, so there are only a handful of really big companies that pump out blockbusters, with a lesser amount of middling stuff (probably digital only) and the occasional indie sleeper hit from outside the system.
But large scale games are becoming less and less relevant as time goes on
Nobody's saying they're going away entirely but I would bet that at least one and maybe two or three big pubs are going to fail next gen, and maybe Sony too
Ubisoft has like 7000 employees while Take-Two has like 2000.
If we're talking about oil tanker companies, I wouldn't lean toward Take-Two in this comparison.
.. Star Citizen?
dave is ok
aztek is ok
Gabe is an optimist.
The publisher model sucks. I would rather my money went to the actual talent. The same is true for movies and music.
The publisher model sucks. I would rather my money went to the actual talent. The same is true for movies and music.
I'm not entirely sure if he was referring to console makers or game studios but I would agree that some of the game studios are producing products that are too far from games. I feel like the focus of so many games over the best 4 years or so has been on story, audio, graphics, and huge worlds as the forefront with gameplay as a small part of their products. Not that all modern games are bad, I'm very sad to see people lose jobs but some of these studios seemed to be disconnected from what the concept of a "game" is. I think MGS and Uncharted do the interactive movie thing well but I don't understand why trying to be a cinematic movie became the standard in games.
It's interesting to hear Gabe say something like this when he is part of a large company and makes a lot of money selling games for big companies. I wonder if he is trying to make an "indie" image for himself and his company (sure doesn't fool me). The Piston is going to sell the same PC games as Steam so I don't understand how Valve and their console isn't part of a big company. I don't think Kickstarter is truly a viable long-term business option. There might be a small fanbase online that is willing to fund games that won't come out for years but the average consumer wants something they can buy at a B&M store.
I do like the idea of games coming from both big and small companies but at the end of the day the game itself is what's most important. The "indie scene" as a whole is way overrated.
It's interesting to hear Gabe say something like this when he is part of a large company and makes a lot of money selling games for big companies. I wonder if he is trying to make an "indie" image for himself and his company (sure doesn't fool me). The Piston is going to sell the same PC games as Steam so I don't understand how Valve and their console isn't part of a big company. I don't think Kickstarter is truly a viable long-term business option. There might be a small fanbase online that is willing to fund games that won't come out for years but the average consumer wants something they can buy at a B&M store.
I do like the idea of games coming from both big and small companies but at the end of the day the game itself is what's most important. The "indie scene" as a whole is way overrated.
MisterHero
Super Member
Pretty soon these big-time companies won't be able to develop games in more than 3 genres!
Kacho
Gold Member
Things change dramatically from generation to generation. I believe there is a lot of truth to what Gabe is saying.
According to Ubisoft, games will be bigger, but we'll see less of them. I'm not sure how many third party publishers can survive in that type of environment. Especially when you consider how many studios went under this generation. Studios will be under tremendous pressure to pump out high quality games. More so than they have ever been.
According to Ubisoft, games will be bigger, but we'll see less of them. I'm not sure how many third party publishers can survive in that type of environment. Especially when you consider how many studios went under this generation. Studios will be under tremendous pressure to pump out high quality games. More so than they have ever been.
IISANDERII
Member
Valve didn't develop WarZ while EA did make Tiger Woods.
This is important because EA, like any large corp., is so departmentalized that something can be going on for months and months in one area while another area has no clue about because if it did, it would shut it down immediately.
I think people are forgetting that one failure can sink these companies if it's big enough. I don't think any of them are going to make it through the next hardware transition without any missteps, and how many are in a good enough place to survive that? And what if the new consoles don't take off right away? Also I don't think the market for $60 boxed games and $400 consoles is ever going to be as big as it was this gen.
BlazeHedgehog
Member
Unfortunately I don't agree with this - the video game industry has proven time and time again that once things start moving too fast for them, they'll just intentionally start dragging everyone else down so they don't get outpaced.
That means more restrictive DRM, more hooks to keep players shackled to their products, and so on.
It'll just be like it is right now, but on a larger scale: the "middle tier" of developers will cease to exist, with only the biggest fighting to keep the smallest at bay. And the biggest are smart enough to know some really dirty, underhanded ways to do it.
Shining Sunshine
Banned
Same responsibility to stop the release of a product, but even worse for Valve as Steam is their platform.
Even the console manufacturers have tons of rules and QA checks to prevent a WarZ fiasco.
The big publishers will learn this the hard way. I don't want to say it'll be a crash - More like being dragged along a rough surface for an extended period of time.
thehypocrite
Member
I disagree, but I think time will tell though.
There is some truth in what he is saying. With constantly rising costs, less and less publishers and developers will be able to survive. But those remaining will become stronger than ever. The market will be more and more seperated in the end, high end shooter on one hand and iOs on the other.
Fixed.
Fixed.
Kacho
Gold Member
I expect a lot of Killzone 2 type trailers at E3 this year.
People have their new late-gen rose glasses but that's been 2005 up until about a year ago. It's crazy people think this time it'll work and that OMG graphics is going to suddenly open people's wallets.
Several big companies are hurting but the big 4+1 (Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, and Samsung) are still king because literally everything depends on them for components, software, manufacturing, billing, discovery or just because they represent most relevant platforms and are the big movers in tech.
I'm really surprised with Valve's lack of foresight though. For a software company to have no investment in mobile at this point is kinda asinine. The iceberg's shrinking and they seem to be running to the high ground rather than taking the boat, it's non-traditional to be sure.
But I also hate where this line of thinking goes. Nearly all the interest in innovation in software now-a-days is going to business models. Figuring out how to repackage the same thing in a different way. As gamers we aren't becoming richer, we're just trading out upfront payments for marginal ones that intuitively seem smaller but will cost more in the long run.
It's not a large corporation ala EA, either. Valve is actually still pretty small in regards to personal.
I have been tired of Gabe's talk. So he launched Steam and made some games, has a good track record. The next half life is becoming a joke like Duke Nukem was.
I didn't think someone could top the confusion of the Wii U but here comes a or some random steam boxes for your living room. TV or Big Mode for steam, well how is that different that a PC ported to a console that you can use a keyboard and mouse? If you use a controller, then how is it different still? Does he have a redesigned phantom controller up his sleeve since he says motions controls also suck. He just seems to be talking smack about everything but doesn't have the answers lately.
I didn't think someone could top the confusion of the Wii U but here comes a or some random steam boxes for your living room. TV or Big Mode for steam, well how is that different that a PC ported to a console that you can use a keyboard and mouse? If you use a controller, then how is it different still? Does he have a redesigned phantom controller up his sleeve since he says motions controls also suck. He just seems to be talking smack about everything but doesn't have the answers lately.
Baconsammy
Banned
60 dollar games perhaps, but as long as the next gen consoles also double as media centers, they'll be viable.
What are some examples of him not having the "answers"?
Kacho
Gold Member
I wonder if we will see a change in the way games are priced. Obviously the "AAAA" games will continue to be $60 or so, but not every game should be $60 out of the gate. This is one of the biggest problems in the industry at the moment in my opinion.
I feel like the publishers who aren't making mega-hits, who can't adopt a different pricing structure, are the ones who will suffer the most.
Big difference between the two: HL3 won't be made by a skeleton crew desperately trying to turn the broken wreckage of a game that never materialized into a commercial product as quickly as possible.
Yes.
As for the rest... The mills of the gods grind slowly, yet they grind exceedingly fine. With the possible exception of CS:GO, Valve has yet to give us an extended wait for something that wasn't worth it.
Kacho
Gold Member
I see what you are saying, but Valve continues to be one of the most progressive and successful companies in the business.
I like Gaben, and I feel like this is the year that will make or break his reputation by an absurd margin.
He's got a lot of positive word of mouth riding on things like the Steambox, the OR, and much negative forecasting about the future of what I perceive he's referring to; Microsoft and big publishers such as Ubisoft and EA. I honestly hope he gets proven right; while I do buy AAA games(during Steam sales), I do want them to mix the formula up some more.
I feel like Watch Dogs is a step in the right direction, what with indirect ways to accomplish missions outside of 'pew pew pew', or the rise in popularity of the Souls franchise, or the success of Journey. Not everything needs to be aimed at photorealism, and I feel like the video games industry will actually take a hit if publishers continue to uphold relatively bland art styles. Keep Uncharted's color scheme as-is, keep Halo's as-is, just don't get more generic; that will only bite them in the end.
An example of a series that I feel is artistically bland would be the Assassin's Creed series...the lack of color makes the atmosphere seem so bland to me, personally.
He's got a lot of positive word of mouth riding on things like the Steambox, the OR, and much negative forecasting about the future of what I perceive he's referring to; Microsoft and big publishers such as Ubisoft and EA. I honestly hope he gets proven right; while I do buy AAA games(during Steam sales), I do want them to mix the formula up some more.
I feel like Watch Dogs is a step in the right direction, what with indirect ways to accomplish missions outside of 'pew pew pew', or the rise in popularity of the Souls franchise, or the success of Journey. Not everything needs to be aimed at photorealism, and I feel like the video games industry will actually take a hit if publishers continue to uphold relatively bland art styles. Keep Uncharted's color scheme as-is, keep Halo's as-is, just don't get more generic; that will only bite them in the end.
An example of a series that I feel is artistically bland would be the Assassin's Creed series...the lack of color makes the atmosphere seem so bland to me, personally.
EagleBurnn
Banned
L4D2. And Gaben's mouth is getting too big. He's acting like a cocky scrawny kid before a big fight at school with some quarterback.
Misleading thread title.
The key word is traditional production model. Companies that listen to pitches, calculate the risks, and the hedge the cost will cease to be relevant.
That model will simply not be able to compete against the mass of smaller operations who can operate on smaller scales and directly connect with their customers.
Going for the "one size fits all" approach will only demean the value of their product.
Just like MacDonald is a huge large corporation, but they have little to no influence on the gourmet world. They won't go away, but they will cease to be relevant.
The key word is traditional production model. Companies that listen to pitches, calculate the risks, and the hedge the cost will cease to be relevant.
That model will simply not be able to compete against the mass of smaller operations who can operate on smaller scales and directly connect with their customers.
Going for the "one size fits all" approach will only demean the value of their product.
Just like MacDonald is a huge large corporation, but they have little to no influence on the gourmet world. They won't go away, but they will cease to be relevant.
What Gabe was saying was that when an industry is in rapid flux, the inertia and rigidity of a huge, vertically structured, and beaurcratic corporation means that it cannot respond fast enough. He used the example of how google innovated and came to dominate search, and ms could not respond fast enough. Or when facebook innovated, and google could not respond quick enough. And his explanation for this was that big vertical companies are made of people, and they all have their own self interest. And part of that is defending their turf, and trying to keep things the way they are.
However, he didn't mention when Netscape innovated, and ms used it's power to crush it. Although maybe that is a bad counter example given the attention it recieved from law enforcement.
PS, even though Valve is big-ish, they are a flat company, i.e. they do not have a vertical power structure.
However, he didn't mention when Netscape innovated, and ms used it's power to crush it. Although maybe that is a bad counter example given the attention it recieved from law enforcement.
PS, even though Valve is big-ish, they are a flat company, i.e. they do not have a vertical power structure.
Quicksilver4648
Member
His prediction is inherently incorrect because it assumes large companies will never adapt. We haven't seen the new consoles from Microsoft and Sony yet so it is impossible to say their new model (every generation seemingly brings a new model) will fail. Believe me, Microsoft and Sony spend millions looking at trends of the market. If the audience demands changes then business plan can and will be adjusted.
Ex. Gabe says that the traditional model of buying games (I think this means buying a $60 disk from a physical building) is going to the waste side and these large companies can't migrate if/when change happens. Microsoft has one of the largest (if not the largest) cloud storage services in the world and Sony bought the cloud gaming company Gaikai.
TL;DR: E3 2013 is going to be VERY interesting and ultimately influential to the future of all video games.
Ex. Gabe says that the traditional model of buying games (I think this means buying a $60 disk from a physical building) is going to the waste side and these large companies can't migrate if/when change happens. Microsoft has one of the largest (if not the largest) cloud storage services in the world and Sony bought the cloud gaming company Gaikai.
TL;DR: E3 2013 is going to be VERY interesting and ultimately influential to the future of all video games.
Though I agree that L4D2 was kind of lackluster and weirdly out of character for Valve, I did say extended wait. L4D2 was announced at E3 2009 and released the following Fall.
Devil's advocate: Are American software companies devaluing IPs with their 40%-50% off day one MSRP compared to the rest of the world?
Well you seem like you have some inside information then.
I guess if you have the winning cards in your hand and you know it, you can talk a lot as he is doing lately. I still think maybe Gabe is starting to feel left out with how the mobile industry has materialized and he is trying to react. If he is wrong and makes the game industry better for developers and players, then kudos. I think however he built this steam ideas on Windows PC gaming and now that is not so good. Just putting stuff on a linux box is not the answer. And if that is the answer, well what is the market? How many people really know what steam is? People already are invested in Live, MS Marketplace, iOS and Apple Marketplace, and Google and Play Store. These are all converging and making steam irrelevant in my opinion. Steam, games and what? No media there to keep people attached like movies and music.
If the average person goes into a store and wants to buy a new video game machine, and they have the choice of Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, Google, Apple, or Valve Steam, who will most people pick? What about Samsung, Amazon?
I'm not sure what to make of posts like this. Do you read/watch Gabe's interviews outside of these summary threads? The guy is very smart, articulates his points well and is often proven right in the following years.
Would you rather he give some non-interview with nothing critical to say about anything?
Gabe didn't say "no more big companies." He said "big, traditionally-structured companies won't be able to keep up and will lose relevance as a result." You'll still see long, epic games, they'll just be like Final Fantasy XIII.
So anotherwords, a future without big, epic games.
JordanLMiller
Member
Dear god I hope he's wrong. The best games are the ones people don't even know they want. They aren't design by committee. Kickstarter for everything is a terrible idea.
NervousXtian
Thought Emoji Movie was good. Take that as you will.
Gabe sure likes talking these days... and playing dota2... because that pretty much seems like all his does these days.
..anyhow.. I like my indie games and all.. but fuck if I want a no-big-budget-game future... I hope the blockbuster stays around for as long as I do.
..anyhow.. I like my indie games and all.. but fuck if I want a no-big-budget-game future... I hope the blockbuster stays around for as long as I do.
EagleBurnn
Banned
He said that the Windows Store was a "catastrophe" because it would make the whole OS closed source. Lots of journalists (real ones) said that it was a radical statement to only make his new competition look bad, which makes more sense than Microsoft ditching their decades of tradition and closing their OS over a new store competing with Valve.
FFXIII was big and epic. It was also hopelessly out of touch because of the exact sort of thing Gabe is alluding to. For a different example, how about Assassin's Creed 3? Ubisoft makes a huge improvement with AC2, then sees dollar signs and churns out two unnecessary expansion pack sequels, then makes a third "main" game that's lacking in polish and tremendously disappointing to many. Ooh, you know, Resident Evil 6 was also big and epic...
Nope. Something has to be good to be epic.
Ideally, yeah. My point was that the industry is still trying to make "proper epic" games, but the end result is often just overwrought and disappointing.
Do you see something wrong with someone trying to disparage their competition in an interview?
I happen to agree with many of the Windows 8 complaints, by the way. Even though I don't think Microsoft will entirely switch over to a walled garden, Windows 8 (and Microsoft's behavior in general) definitely hints at the possibility, so moving to mitigate this is a good idea for Valve.