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[z0m3le]

Take Japan out of the equation, and then look at the numbers; esp wrt to software sales and yes, an argument can be made that the 3ds is underperforming.

So talking about handhelds by removing one of the largest markets dedicated to handhelds makes sense how? that is like saying the 360 isn't selling well if you ignore America's sales.

Why are you comparing consoles and handhelds? The markets have been proven to be nothing alike.

Same is applicable to the PSP (76million units since 2004)... I would still argue that console market and handheld market are not entirely different, which is why Vita's owners in general own PS3s as well.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I just find funny how it seems there is this desire to see Iwata resigning; basically, every 3 months or so. If Nintendo is where it is, it's thanks to him and his management. It's been not perfect lately, but he still has some degree of freedom for Wii U, while 3DS definitely took off. While Sony kept posting horrible financial results, and having a Vita dead on arrival, no issue were brought up, in general, on its management.

Sony does more than just make games consoles. That is not the case for Nintendo. One under performing product in the games division makes little difference to Sony's overall position, but Wii U doing the same for Nintendo puts Nintendo in a difficult place.

Sony are bringing in stacks of cash from their bank, media operations and now their smartphone division, and PS3 hardware/software is highly profitable. Nintendo are not involved in any of the markets where Sony make money and they are actively avoiding entering the biggest growth market (smart devices) while Sony are growing market share and revenue/profits.

Also, after Sony posted all of those losses, Sir Howard Stringer stepped down. After PS3 racked up $5bn in losses Ken Kutaragi was pensioned off. After projects like Home didn't realise the original vision Phil Harrison was basically pushed out of the company and replaced by Yoshida (who is awesome). The top level management of Sony today is completely different from that which launched the PS3. As for Vita, it's a failure and they need to fix or bin it, but overall it is a minor problem compared to the other issues Kaz needs to fix at Sony (Vaio, TVs, Pictures, Xperia Tablets, Cybershot) and it at least is not a money loser for them, not in a big way like PS3 at least which explains the lack of urgency.

Need people be reminded that Sony lost $4.7 billion in the four years after the launch of the PS3:

Yeah, and the management responsible for that failure all got moved on. The man responsible for fixing the problems and making PS3 the sales beast it is now got promoted to head of the division and now head of the company. Sony made the changes in management necessary, Nintendo are not doing it. Reggie is still around, they need a big hitter in the US and Reggie is just a lightweight marketing tool. Iwata continues to stumble along living off past glories and hoping that Japan's love of handheld gaming doesn't wane like it has in the west.

 

[Aquamarine]

So what time is the official release of the numbers? This article is based on estimates.

You really should read back a couple of pages:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=55002327&postcount=734

 

[ksamedi]

You really should read back a couple of pages:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=55002327&postcount=734

Thanks!

 

[Captain Smoker]

/edit

 

[Daingurse]

So talking about handhelds by removing one of the largest markets dedicated to handhelds makes sense how? that is like saying the 360 isn't selling well if you ignore America's sales.



Same is applicable to the PSP (76million units since 2004)... I would still argue that console market and handheld market are not entirely different, which is why Vita's owners in general own PS3s as well.

Vita owners will more than likely have a PS3, vice-versa is obviously not the case unfortunately. PSP sold on it's own merits alone. I don't care what handheld you use as an example, I see little relevance in comparing it to a console.

 

[Always-honest]

Well, expecting nice things then.

 

[Shiggy]

People still know who they are. Nintendo before the Wii and DS was basically the company behind Mario Land and Tetris on the GameBoy and even then you'd probably have to mention Mario or the GameBoy rather than Nintendo to get a response out of someone. Today they are actually a name people recognise. This is nothing to do with charts or glory days, just name recognition.

Brand recognition and brand recall alone does not get them very far however. What are brand associations? I still remember the GCN days when Nintendo was seen as kiddy and the cool teenagers thus wanted a PS2. Or right now: The Xbox 360 is well known in continental Europe, still its sales are rather sluggish.
I can also think of several examples from other industries that illustrate my point.

What matters is that the Japanese management has failed pretty much for the past few years and that NoE's marketing department has not found a way to spin these failures to get decent sales in either the UK or continental Europe.

 

[QaaQer]

So talking about handhelds by removing one of the largest markets dedicated to handhelds makes sense how? that is like saying the 360 isn't selling well if you ignore America's sales.

And that would be accurate. The 360 is underperforming in places like like Japan and mainland Europe.

Same is applicable to the PSP (76million units since 2004)... I would still argue that console market and handheld market are not entirely different, which is why Vita's owners in general own PS3s as well.

they are different, like comparing cars to boats.

 

[z0m3le]

Vita owners will more than likely have a PS3 unfortunately, vice-versa is obviously not the case unfortunately. PSP sold on it's own merits alone. I don't care what handheld you use as an example, I see little relevance in comparing it to a console.

the relevance was the market penetration of those game devices are considered successes, both PS2 and DS have proven that a single device can sell over 150million units, I don't see these markets as being that different but I replaced the PS3 and 360 which I guess sell poorly compared to handhelds? (that is your point right?) With the PSP, which has similar numbers to those systems anyways.

And that would be accurate. The 360 is underperforming in places like like Japan and mainland Europe.

and yet we don't see anyone doing that.

they are different, like comparing cars to boats.

I would put it as motorcycle vs car... since they you know, the same type of entertainment.

 

[ASIS]

That means they made like 10.000.000 $ of operating losses in the last quarter (if Bloomberg is right), if you consider the bad Wii U sales in January & February (& March), that's nothing.

Also, in the end, their net income should be positive thanks to the yen.

the company is not dying, but net income doesnt tell the whole story. Operating activities still doesn't generate revenue hence, the company isn't profitable yet.

Where can I get the documents when they are released? Is it open for the public? ( I assume it is).

 

[Captain Smoker]

the company is not dying, but net income doesnt tell the whole story. Operating activities still doesn't generate revenue hence, the company isn't profitable yet.

Where can I get the documents when they are released? Is it open for the public? ( I assume it is).

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/

 

[Daingurse]

the relevance was the market penetration of those game devices are considered successes, both PS2 and DS have proven that a single device can sell over 150million units, I don't see these markets as being that different but I replaced the PS3 and 360 which I guess sell poorly compared to handhelds? (that is your point right?) With the PSP, which has similar numbers to those systems anyways.

My point is you don't compare consoles and handhelds. That's it, that's all. They appeal to completely different demographics and have completely different market trends.

 

[z0m3le]

My point is you don't compare consoles and handhelds. That's it, that's all. They appeal to completely different demographics and have completely different market trends.

and now that I've compared it to PSP, is my original point that 3DS will sell half of PSP's numbers in 2 and a half years, something to be seen as a failure?

 

[Daingurse]

and now that I've compared it to PSP, is my original point that 3DS will sell half of PSP's numbers in 2 and a half years, something to be seen as a failure?

The PSP could be considered a failure in many ways. It flopped completely in the USA, selling abysmal amounts of hardware, software, and died a slow miserable death. It did gangbusters in Japan with Monster Hunter sure, but I'm neither Japanese nor do I like Monster Hunter anyway, so why would I care? US PSP owners got burned, luckily there was enough software for me to warrant owning it.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

and now that I've compared it to PSP, is my original point that 3DS will sell half of PSP's numbers in 2 and a half years, something to be seen as a failure?

Yes, just as the PS3 is a failure because it didn't match or beat it's predecessor. Also, you are making the mistake of thinking sales will be constant when most likely they will slow down further in the west as smartphones continue to ramp up and get into cheaper markets eating into the 3DS' market.

Edit: Just for comparison, they made 60.000.000 $ of operating losses from Oct - Dec 2012.

Which gives us a quarterly operating loss estimate of $128m for the final quarter. Not exactly the best result.

 

[QaaQer]

and now that I've compared it to PSP, is my original point that 3DS will sell half of PSP's numbers in 2 and a half years, something to be seen as a failure?

since 'failure' is a relative term, the correct answer is: yes, no, and maybe.

 

[Triple U]

Need people be reminded that Sony lost $4.7 billion in the four years after the launch of the PS3:

Well its not a great comparison, 1:1. It would take alot more than that to make a company as huge as Sony fail. MS too. But Nintendo is mostly gaming only, if that fails, they do.

But my original post still stands that this isn't that bad of a FY at all, all things considered.

 

[shinra-bansho]

That means they made like 10.000.000 $ of operating losses in the last quarter (if Bloomberg is right), if you consider the bad Wii U sales in January & February (& March), that's nothing.

Also, in the end, their net income should be positive thanks to the yen.


Edit: Just for comparison, they made 60.000.000 $ of operating losses from Oct - Dec 2012.

Confused, where are you getting these numbers?

If the analysts forecast is accurate, it means Nintendo operated at a loss of ¥12.8B this quarter, as they were at a ~¥5.9B loss for the 9 months to Dec-12. For the latter I think you're making the same mistake as I did and reading it as for Q3, it was for the FYQ1-Q3.

 

[Daingurse]

Well its not a great comparison, 1:1. It would take alot more than that to make a company as huge as Sony fail. MS too. But Nintendo is mostly gaming only, if that fails, they do.

But my original post still stands that this isn't that bad of a FY at all, all things considered.

Relatively speaking, yeah it's not too bad. But it's not a healthy sign at all.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Need people be reminded that Sony lost $4.7 billion in the four years after the launch of the PS3:

Sony's gaming division?

Because from what I recall their gaming division is one of the top performing divisions of the company if not the top performing division.

 

[frankie_baby]

Well its not a great comparison, 1:1. It would take alot more than that to make a company as huge as Sony fail. MS too. But Nintendo is mostly gaming only, if that fails, they do.

But my original post still stands that this isn't that bad of a FY at all, all things considered.

it'd take a hell of a lot more than 4.7bn of losses to make nintendo fail too

 

[Captain Smoker]

Confused, where are you getting these numbers?

If the analysts forecast is accurate, it means Nintendo operated at a loss of ¥12.8B this quarter, as they were at a ~¥5.9B loss for the 9 months to Dec-12.

Damn, I was in the wrong row, I took the numbers from 2011 and not from this fiscal year for my calculation. -.-

Operating loss for this quarter should be 133.000.000 $ then, which is, like zomgbbqftw said, not the best result.


Sry for the misunderstanding.

 

[frankie_baby]

Sony's gaming division?

Because from what I recall their gaming division is one of the top performing divisions of the company if not the top performing division.

did you miss the launch cratering of the ps3 coupled with massive loss leading for years and pumping money money money just to get it to the point now where its doing 'ok'

 

[Striek]

Really? 30 million in 2 years is unreasonably low? I just don't understand what was expected I guess. I mean this year it is likely to pass the SNES in life time sales (49m), have reached over half of 360's or PS3's numbers in just 3 years where those consoles are on their 8th and 9th year respectfully.

I mean who knows what 3DS's final numbers will be in ~2017 when it is replaced, but to even come to the notion that 3DS isn't selling well, is just uneducated nonsense IMO.

Theres little point comparing it to any of those home consoles. A) Its a handheld, B) Nintendos position in that marketplace is now, and has historically been, completely different.

They've erased 10 years worth of growth with the 3DS. No one expected that. No one could've expected that. Nintendo has missed half a dozen internal forecasts by varying amounts, and missed software forecasts on the 3DS by very large amounts.

I don't get why it has to be 'expectations were too high' instead of 'its underperformed'.

 

[kingkaiser]

Sony's gaming division?

Because from what I recall their gaming division is one of the top performing divisions of the company if not the top performing division.

 

[electroplankton]

I bet they fired the management on a yearly basis, then.

 

[z0m3le]

Theres little point comparing it to any of those home consoles. A) Its a handheld, B) Nintendos position in that marketplace is now, and has historically been, completely different.

They've erased 10 years worth of growth with the 3DS. No one expected that. No one could've expected that. Nintendo has missed half a dozen internal forecasts by varying amounts, and missed software forecasts on the 3DS by very large amounts.

I don't get why it has to be 'expectations were too high' instead of 'its underperformed'.

Those are more or less the same thing, but if you release the Striek gamegear and expect it to sell 20million units in its first year, yet it only sold 50k, people could say that it underperformed, but the reality is that the market was never going to support your numbers, so it was a case of expectations being too high.

This is of course just my opinion, but I hope it is a reasonable one. As for the consoles thing, replace it with the PSP's 76Million units sold since 2004.

 

[Duckhuntdog]

Twenty pages and not one gif of Iwata logging on to Monster.com. You're slipping guys.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I bet they fired the management on a yearly basis, then.

Since you've clearly decided to ignore both replies given to you:

Kutaragi - pensioned off
Stringer - resigned
Harrison - pushed out

These are the guilty parties and they are all out.

 

[SirIgbyCeaser]

Here's a fun game game! Can you guess what years the PS1, PS2 and PS3 where released reading that chart!

 

[shinra-bansho]

I don't see why people insist on conflating the home console and handheld markets as if they're one.

it'd take a hell of a lot more than 4.7bn of losses to make nintendo fail too

Contrary to popular belief Nintendo are not literally made of money, and yes, losses of that magnitude would cripple Nintendo. Although, I doubt they'd ever be dumb enough to get into a situation where they would lose that much.

I bet they fired the management on a yearly basis, then.

Kutaragi was essentially kicked upstairs after FY2006, and ejected completely soon after. Why are you persisting with this when it was already pointed out to you that the management that resulted in these disastrous numbers were shuffled out?

 

[electroplankton]

Since you've clearly decided to ignore both replies given to you:

Kutaragi - pensioned off
Stringer - resigned
Harrison - pushed out

These are the guilty parties and they are all out.

They were out after the first loss, or later on? Nintendo posted its first loss in 30 or so years just a year ago, after years of huge earnings.

 

[Sendou]

When you put it that way...

Seriously I don't know what people expected. For Nintendo to turn profit?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

They were out after the first loss, or later on? Nintendo posted its first loss in 30 or so years just a year ago, after years of huge earnings.

Kutaragi certainly was. He got pensioned off to some ceremonial title in early 2007 iirc.

 

[frankie_baby]

Contrary to popular belief Nintendo are not literally made of money, and yes, losses of that magnitude would cripple Nintendo. ?

contrary to your belief, nintendo may not be made of money but they do have enough money that 4.7bn wouldn't kill them, though thats not ever likely to happen anyway

 

[marc^o^]

They've erased 10 years worth of growth with the 3DS.

You talk as if you foresaw DS growth in the first place: did you? I'm asking because I know lots of Nintendo averse people, spending hours a day discussing about this company's outlook, who didn't expect the DS to grow at all. The narrative back then, when I joined GAF, was that Nintendo's pie was under attack by the PSP, and that they would ineluctably lose market shares, which would be the start of their downfall.

It turned out the DS became the biggest selling videogame machine of all times with the PS2.
Now replace PSP by smartphones and it's the repeat of the same story.

Can't 3DS grow? Who knows!

It's more and more popular with kids around me and Pokemon is just around the corner. Gamers now have many reasons to get it, its price is in the range of an impulse buy.
3DS can definitely grow.

No piracy and high margin digital sales can make it more profitable than the DS was.
Digital services and miiverse are a fantastic opportunity to build a long term relationship between customers and Nintendo's brand.

This positive outlook is not far stretched. It's just there in front of us.

 

[FreedomFighter]

So much overreaction in this thread.

 

[test_account]

What is the Bloomberg estimations based on?

Microsoft always loses money when they buy their way into an industry. Zune, Windows phone, etc. They knew they would lose money on it. I don't think Sony knew how much the PS3 was going to be a disaster for them.

If it makes you feel better I'll edit my statement to accurately reflect that PS3 did more damage to Sony than Xbox 1 did to Microsoft.

I dont think it is much different with Microsoft in that case. At least i cant imagine that Microsoft went into the console business with the intention of losing 6 billion to 10 billion dollars (if that number is accurate). Both Microsoft and Sony knew that they were going to initially lose money indeed, but it is all about hoping that they will recoup this loss in the long run. When Kaz announced the PS3 price, he also mentioned that Sony took a risk with the PS3 ("to succeed, we need to take risks", or something like that).

I dont know who got most damage done to them but in the end it is all about the raw numbers, profit or loss.

 

[-MB-]

Yes, just as the PS3 is a failure because it didn't match or beat it's predecessor. Also, you are making the mistake of thinking sales will be constant when most likely they will slow down further in the west as smartphones continue to ramp up and get into cheaper markets eating into the 3DS' market.



Which gives us a quarterly operating loss estimate of $128m for the final quarter. Not exactly the best result.

And yet according to this article, Nintendo is gonna meet and beat their estimates losswise, yet Iwata and Nintendo are doomed still? Quite the hypocrisy.

 

[Busty]

It's not a favourable situation, but coming in here and throwing wisecracks about the Saudi royal family as if posters are reacting on an individual level rather than in the terms of a big international business is daft.

Good grief.

You are entirely too sensitive to be allowed anywhere the Internet.

 

[Triple U]

A chart from a few years ago doesn't exactly paint the picture of whether the game division is a good performing division....

 

[Exterminieren]

Good grief.

You are entirely too sensitive to be allowed anywhere the Internet.

I'm not offended.

I said it was daft.

Which it was.

 

[burst]

I don't subscribe to the idea that Nintendo is doomed, I do however subscribe to the idea that the wii u is in deep trouble.

Nintendo needs to announce a Pokemon MMO to win over the 5-12 year olds.

 

[Striek]

Those are more or less the same thing, but if you release the Striek gamegear and expect it to sell 20million units in its first year, yet it only sold 50k, people could say that it underperformed, but the reality is that the market was never going to support your numbers, so it was a case of expectations being too high.

This is of course just my opinion, but I hope it is a reasonable one. As for the consoles thing, replace it with the PSP's 76Million units sold since 2004.

Well kind've, but thats the sort of logic by which you can say nothing ever really underperforms, expectations are always just too high. Which I think is very charitable and nice, but I'm not sure accurate.


The PSP became the clear second fiddle that generation, the 3DS is the main attraction this generation.

You talk as if you foresaw DS growth in the first place: did you?
[etc.]

You are right, its hard to foresee such things. No one expected the DS to achieve what it did, not even the staunchest Nintendo fans or Nintendo themselves. It was called the third-pillar for a reason; as a hedge bet.

But you don't understand, the 3DS + DS are forecast to have sold slightly less last year combined than the GBA alone did the year before the DS was launched. That is regression.

Regardless of what happens in the future, it doesn't change how things are now. That should be something anyone who saw the DS boom or the PSP bust should realise.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Nintendo needs to announce a Pokemon MMO to win over the 5-12 year olds.

I've read much stupidity today, but this just about takes the cake.

Who's credit card do you propose they use to subscribe to an MMO? Or do you think F2P would work better for the 5-12 market?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Regarding the 3DS and growth;

Trailing twelve months NPD figures.

But I guess we'll see what Pokemon can do to reverse this.

contrary to your belief, nintendo may not be made of money but they do have enough money that 4.7bn wouldn't kill them, though thats not ever likely to happen anyway

I didn't say kill. I said cripple. I'm aware Nintendo holds large amounts of cash and marketable securities. Losses like those you're talking about though would eat away like half of those and simultaneously destroy investor confidence. But again, yes, it's a moot point.

What is the Bloomberg estimations based on?

Average of analyst predictions.

A chart from a few years ago doesn't exactly paint the picture of whether the game division is a good performing division....

It's only missing one known figure, the ~29B yen from FYE Mar-12. The PS3 has lost a lot of money.

 

[test_account]

Average of analyst predictions.

I see, thanks. I guess the real numbers might be quite different then, for the better or worse.

 

[SmokedMeat]

did you miss the launch cratering of the ps3 coupled with massive loss leading for years and pumping money money money just to get it to the point now where its doing 'ok'

I knew there were losses during the launch year, but I didn't care to follow beyond that. Too busy playing all of the games.

 

[marc^o^]

you don't understand, the 3DS + DS are forecast to have sold slightly less last year combined than the GBA alone did the year before the DS was launched. That is regression.

What I understand is momentum. I also understand that high profile games, such as Pokemon, MH4 or Zelda - and the myriad of other 3DS hits releasing this year - can only have a very strong impact on 3DS hardware sales.

Besides, success builds success.

Soon after its launch and for quite a while, 3DS was badly portrayed in the medias (just like the Wii U now). Articles were all about the 3D that hurt people's eyes, the smartphones that guaranteed its downfall, the terrible lack of games, etc.

2 years later, 3DS is the new media darling. Nice things are written about it everywhere, people start to know friends who have a 3DS: the virtuous circle is in place. That's the snowball effect I mentioned on the previous page. You see the glass half empty, but this narrative is so 2012. Things now look very good.