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[Bundy]

MS is not a person posting with us here at GAF.

Wha....what?

I'm a little unsure what this means. What will the launch prove about this story one way or the other?

I think he's talking about the XBone launch date. Seems like the Kotaku rumor is true and the Xbone will launch 1 week earlier than the PS4.
Then you will see a "see, we're even launching first" comment just to prove his point.
But actually, it proves nothing.

 

[Klocker]

Like I said. The truth of launch will put this to rest. There would be no benefit to me entering this thread unless I was confident it could be proven beyond my own word.

The continuous propagation of the same rumor does not make it a new rumor. The China news thing is wrong, of course, like the other rumors are wrong. They have no source. It’s just the same rumor making the rounds.

My source = me. That’s all I can rely on, my knowledge of what’s going on internally.

Now, you could call me a BIASED source, but short of me showing documents or email strings or other evidence that of course I could never disclose, it’s basically my word against the rumors. And even if I did show something, it would be dismissed.

At any rate, I will continue to post as long as I’m welcome.

well said good sir,

ignore the naysayers

 

[derFeef]

I don't see you eating it up and you're 'Gaf' too right?

And Albert is not "Microsoft", that's kinda my point really.

 

[GavinGT]

Can you define: "the truth of launch" and "it could be proven beyond my own word"

What does this mean? What will the launch prove and most importantly how?
What will be the benchmark? Out selling (shipping) your nearest competitor? Really shipping in the original countries now part of the delay?

If stock remains readily available in the 13 launch countries, it should be clear that the decision to delay launch in some countries wasn't a result of needing to reallocate those units (which would've amounted to, what, 5% of total shipments?).

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

been said before, but they are likely talking about fiscal 2013... which extends several months into 2014

Lets say Q2 fiscal ends in April. That's a million units a month. They could cover europe either in November or December at the latest.

Xbox 360 sells only 1.2 million so far according analysts

that was from launch til December worldwide. So at $100 more, with bad preorder numbers, and launch in the same month at the PS4. They pushed launching in 8 countries back because of yield issues even though they're going to ship 6 million units in those first 6 months? Its bullshit.

 

[Moonstone]

been said before, but they are likely talking about fiscal 2013... which extends several months into 2014

Thx, that would at least make some sense.

 

[Gorillaz]

So if I'm reading this thread right cboat just got blasted on all of his rumors?

Edit: or did he?....

 

[3rdamention]

Albert!



Yes or No..




Will Microsoft bring back any of the pre 180 DRM policies outside of family sharing (they have already entertained bringing ifamily sharing back in the future)? Examples would be the inability to share or lend disc games, the inability to trade or sell disc based games, the once a 24 hour online check, kinect required to be plugged in. Will Microsoft bring any of these back in the future?


I think a clear answer would help some people with trust issues and Microsoft. Just look at the crazy poll results on this forum asking the same question....

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

The problem here is that you are unable to provide proof that what you say is true.
Likewise that chinese article also has no proof wether it is real or not.

So it ends up your word vs chinese article and since neither of you can
Show proof on GAF that shows the other side iq lying your word alone here is meaningless just as much as that article.

This. It's "trust us! VS. trust us!" but since there's more events are lining up with yield rumors, that's where I'll hedge my bets. Of course, I'm always welcome to be proven wrong. I just don't know what we're looking for at launch, Albert. Will the 'truth' be transparent immediately after launch? Or is that when you'll be able to disclose more information?

 

[uNsIs]

360 uses server side voice recognition for booting apps and searching for content, I don't see why the Xbox One would be different.

If they use server-side tech, so can you say "xbox on" to turn on an offline xbone?

 

[GavinGT]

Lets say Q2 fiscal ends in April. That's a million units a month. They could cover europe either in November or December at the latest.

Xbox 360 sells only 1.2 million so far according analysts

that was from launch til December worldwide. So at $100 more, with bad preorder numbers, and launch in the same month at the PS4. They pushed launching in 8 countries back because of yield issues even though they're going to ship 6 million units in those first 6 months? Its bullshit.

Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th. But your point still stands. Xbox 360 had only shipped 5.0 million units by June 30th, 2006.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

So if I'm reading this thread right cboat just got blasted on all of his rumors?

On most things, it would seem so. Even if you believe the Chinese source, the yield results are reportedly not due to esram...

Lets say Q2 fiscal ends in April. That's a million units a month. They could cover europe either in November or December at the latest.

Xbox 360 sells only 1.2 million so far according analysts

that was from launch til December worldwide. So at $100 more, with bad preorder numbers, and launch in the same month at the PS4. They pushed launching in 8 countries back because of yield issues even though they're going to ship 6 million units in those first 6 months? Its bullshit.

Where did you hear that? Their preorder numbers reportedly far exceed their X360 numbers.

 

[EvB]

If they use server-side tech, so can you say "xbox on" to turn on an offline xbone?

Because the machine is still turned on?

Or because like 360 they will use a mixture of server side and client side depending on complexity.

 

[netBuff]

If stock remains readily available in the 13 launch countries, it should be clear that the decision to delay launch in some countries wasn't a result of needing to reallocate those units (which would've amounted to, what, 5% of total shipments?).

Not only does 5% seem like a ridiculously low number that I can't imaging to be close to the truth, steady supply after launch could also indicate a number of things (including more tepid demand than Microsoft expected).

Delaying the launch in many important European countries doesn't make much sense for a feature that could be implemented via patch at a later date. They are putting themselves in a much worse position against Sony by delaying launch.

 

[Klocker]

Albert!



Yes or No..




Will Microsoft bring back any of the pre 180 DRM policies outside of family sharing (they have already entertained bringing ifamily sharing back in the future)? Examples would be the inability to share or lend disc games, the inability to trade or sell disc based games, the once a 24 hour online check, kinect required to be plugged in. Will Microsoft bring any of these back in the future?


I think a clear answer would help some people with trust issues and Microsoft. Just look at the crazy poll results on this forum asking the same question....

you seriously expect or think we deserve an answer on this... NOW?

no way. no company would promise or project the future pathway...nothing is certain not even for Sony on that front...

this question has nothing to do with the topic at hand

 

[netBuff]

And Albert is not "Microsoft", that's kinda my point really.

Well, he's acting as a Microsoft PR representative on this forum. He's never going to admit to the real exact failings that delayed the Xbone in that many countries.

 

[McDougles]

Need to lern to red thred

 

[Panajev2001a]

Every time I read Microsoft PR, I get flashbacks

Actually pretty apt considering their PR this year lol.

 

[BloodMoney]

Albert, can you comment on the rumour that plugging an Xbox One into your television will actually cause it to emit hypno rays via Kinect's IR?

I heard that the Kinect 2 sensor will measure your body mass index and if you are over weight and eat in front of it the system will ridicule you. Inversely, if the sensor determines you are too thin the XboxOne will report back to the cloud and have Mountain Dew and Doritos coupons mailed to your house.

 

[Dreamgazer]

I don't trust the digital times articles (which have also said PS4 plans 12 million shipment in the past.) However, I also don't see why people trust Penello to know anything direct about yield issues.

Penello has also made claims in the past that Netflix is behind a paywall because of "bandwidth" and "licensing" cost (as if it's routed through live or something.) His source being himself also doesn't help.

Again, not doubting his sincerity, but I do wonder if he's actually in the know.

For now, nothing is confirmed till official

 

[Bundy]

Albert!
Yes or No..
Will Microsoft bring back any of the pre 180 DRM policies outside of family sharing (they have already entertained bringing ifamily sharing back in the future)? Examples would be the inability to share or lend disc games, the inability to trade or sell disc based games, the once a 24 hour online check, kinect required to be plugged in. Will Microsoft bring any of these back in the future?

I think a clear answer would help some people with trust issues and Microsoft. Just look at the crazy poll results on this forum asking the same question....

Maybe you can find your answer here:

Finally, Whitten could not give any reassurance that Microsoft will not change its policies in the future.

 

[tfur]

So you are behind schedule, but only because of SW (software) issues.

When you say your hardware is on schedule, does that schedule accommodate for yield issues?

Also, I wonder what he would consider to be a worse scenario. Being behind schedule because of software vs hardware.

Can you define: "the truth of launch" and "it could be proven beyond my own word"

What does this mean? What will the launch prove and most importantly how?
What will be the benchmark? Out selling (shipping) your nearest competitor? Really shipping in the original countries now part of the delay?

Albert does not like my questions.
Please be excited!

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

"Microsoft has recently lowered its Xbox One shipment forecast for 2013 from seven million units originally to 6.2 million due to poor yield rates of the device's camera module, optical disc drive (ODD) and related assembly, according to a Chinese-language Economic Daily News (EDN) report citing market watchers."

Albert already addressed the report and says he doesn't believe it's true. No need to spam him with things he's already seen.

I don't trust the digital times articles (which have also said PS4 plans 12 million shipment in the past.) However, I also don't see why people trust Penello to know anything direct about yield issues.

Penello has also made claims in the past that Netflix is behind a paywall because of "bandwidth" and "licensing" cost (as if it's routed through live or something.) His source being himself also doesn't help.

Again, not doubting his sincerity, but I do wonder if he's actually in the know.

For now, nothing is confirmed till official

It has actually, more recently, stated the exact opposite of this.

 

[kaching]

Yet GAF eats up that article as truth.

There are plenty who are pretty credulous on both sides of the story. Al has already had several "you have my sword" petitions from GAFers in this thread, even though he's basically just answered questions by asking rhetorical questions back, for the most part.

 

[ypo]

Like I said. The truth of launch will put this to rest. There would be no benefit to me entering this thread unless I was confident it could be proven beyond my own word.

The continuous propagation of the same rumor does not make it a new rumor. The China news thing is wrong, of course, like the other rumors are wrong. They have no source. It’s just the same rumor making the rounds.

My source = me. That’s all I can rely on, my knowledge of what’s going on internally.

Now, you could call me a BIASED source, but short of me showing documents or email strings or other evidence that of course I could never disclose, it’s basically my word against the rumors. And even if I did show something, it would be dismissed.

At any rate, I will continue to post as long as I’m welcome.

So if you are not going to give us a projected shipment number how is the launch sales number going to prove anything? Saying we have to take your words for it is just bunch of baloney.

 

[3rdamention]

you seriously expect or think we deserve an answer on this... NOW?

no way. no company would promise or project the future pathway...nothing is certain not even for Sony on that front...

this question has nothing to do with the topic at hand

Well, he brought up trust, and that word is echoed over and over in the DRM poll, so I am just seeing if he would comment. They removed all those restrictions for launch, is it hard to say they won't bring them back? Really that's a big deal to say? Lol

 

[Bundy]

So if you are not going to give us a projected shipment number how is the launch sales number going to prove anything? Saying we have to take your words for it is just bunch of baloney.

=

I think he's talking about the XBone launch date. Seems like the Kotaku rumor is true and the Xbone will launch 1 week earlier than the PS4.
Then you will see a "see, we're even launching first" comment just to prove his point.
But actually, it proves nothing.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

On most things, it would seem so. Even if you believe the Chinese source, the yield results are reportedly not due to esram...



Where did you hear that? Their preorder numbers reportedly far exceed their X360 numbers.

Well that's what people have been saying was the cause of the DRM reversal. Who knows if its true or not. All I'm saying is that 6 million units is ridiculous, even more ridiculous when that's supposed to be the reduced amount.

 

[Raist]

Like I said. The truth of launch will put this to rest. There would be no benefit to me entering this thread unless I was confident it could be proven beyond my own word.

The continuous propagation of the same rumor does not make it a new rumor. The China news thing is wrong, of course, like the other rumors are wrong. They have no source. It’s just the same rumor making the rounds.

My source = me. That’s all I can rely on, my knowledge of what’s going on internally.

Now, you could call me a BIASED source, but short of me showing documents or email strings or other evidence that of course I could never disclose, it’s basically my word against the rumors. And even if I did show something, it would be dismissed.

At any rate, I will continue to post as long as I’m welcome.

The truth? What truth? The truth for now is that launch is delayed in over a third of the countries originally planned, and that the official reason is because of kinect localization stuff, which makese no sense because of countries like switzerland and portugal.

It's also a bit hard to believe that MS will happily give Sony a several months head start in these countries, JUST because of voice recognition localization. It seems like a big sacrifice to make for such a minor issue (considering it's not like the console wouldn't work at all without this).

With limited launch supplies, it does make sense however to focus on the principal markets which show a bit of a close fight, such as the UK, France, etc, by shifting stocks from minor countries.

 

[ekim]

Maybe you can find your answer here:

Which was a very very suspicious interpretation of the actual answer Whitten gave. Actually he never said something along those lines.

 

[3rdamention]

Maybe you can find your answer here:

Thank you my brother......

 

[Moonstone]

So at $100 more, with bad preorder numbers, and launch in the same month at the PS4.

Where did you get the bad preorder numbers from? All reports seem to indicate that PS4/Xbone preorders are far better the 360/ps3 preorder numbers. The ps4 numbers might be better than xbone numbers, but no report said they were bad. And I guess the 360 preorder numbers were disastrous in continental europe. Xbox was pretty much a US only console.
MS worked their way up in the following years and is now a accepted player in the biz. They weren't back then. Xbone numbers can't be worse than 360 numbers, even with a 100$ higher pricetag.

 

[Bundy]

Which was a very very suspicious interpretation of the actual answer Whitten gave. Actually he never said something along those lines.

Well, to be fair, I've never heard anything different.

 

[ypo]

I don't trust the digital times articles (which have also said PS4 plans 12 million shipment in the past.) However, I also don't see why people trust Penello to know anything direct about yield issues.

Penello has also made claims in the past that Netflix is behind a paywall because of "bandwidth" and "licensing" cost (as if it's routed through live or something.) His source being himself also doesn't help.

Again, not doubting his sincerity, but I do wonder if he's actually in the know.

For now, nothing is confirmed till official

Hahah oh shit really? You have a quote or source for this?

 

[ekim]

Well, to be fair, I've never heard anything different.

If we look it that way, maybe MS lowers the price to 50 bucks later this year. I've never hears anythibg different.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I'm seriously trying to determine how we could validate either side of the argument

I.E. whether there are or are not yield issues based on launch

How would the numbers have to play out to confirm it one way or the other?

If they launch with like 2 million consoles that seems a lot to me but if PS4 launches with 4 million do we call it yield issues?

(Numbers are terrible I know but for comparison)

Not sure we'll ever know

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

Where did you get the bad preorder numbers from? All reports seem to indicate that PS4/Xbone preorders are far better the 360/ps3 preorder numbers. The ps4 numbers might be better than xbone numbers, but no report said they were bad. And I guess the 360 preorder numbers were disastrous in continental europe. Xbox was pretty much a US only console.
MS worked their way up in the following years and is now a accepted player in the biz. They weren't back then. Xbone numbers can't be worse than 360 numbers, even with a 100$ higher pricetag.

Bad preorder numbers were supposed to be reason behind the DRM reversal. Also the preorder numbers are supposed to be 4 to 1 or something like that. neither of those are 100% confirmed, I just used the assumption of bad preorders as one of the reasons as to why they don't need to push the Europe launch back to so far when the have so many units according to the yield article.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Well that's what people have been saying was the cause of the DRM reversal. Who knows if its true or not. All I'm saying is that 6 million units is ridiculous, even more ridiculous when that's supposed to be the reduced amount.

Idk if it's completely ridiculous, because everyone who responds to the yield issues (reddit xbox dev, nelson, albert) seems to skirt around the issue and make it clear that their preorders are in fact up from Xbox 360. I have a feeling the yield issues affected their internal projections, which were crazy high. Remember that leaked document which states that they believed the console market had a 1 billion potential, and they wanted Microsoft consoles to occupy 400 million of those?

I think these yield issues are scaling back their obscene projections, but they'll still be making a lot more consoles than last generation. Idk, that's just my take on the whole situation. I think both sides are exaggerating the situation to an extend and the mere 10% reduction of production aligns with my theory. Of course, this is my speculation and carries no real weight.

 

[JABEE]

And Albert is not "Microsoft", that's kinda my point really.

He is "Microsoft." He is an agent of Microsoft. He comes to this forum as a representative of Microsoft. Just like Aaron Greenberg'a Twitter Account is a representation of Microsoft.

 

[ypo]

= stuff

That doesn't prove anything. No one is saying they are producing zero units. They can launch a little early as long as they have decent amount of units.

 

[Bundy]

If we look it that way, maybe MS lowers the price to 50 bucks later this year. I've never hears anythibg different.

Bad comparison, because the DRM stuff was already there/original plan.

That doesn't prove anything. No one is saying they are producing zero units. They can launch a little early as long as they have decent amount of units.

Oh come on, that's not fair! I don't even know which comment you are quoting

 

[SwiftDeath]

Hahah oh shit really? You have a quote or source for this?

"I think it's about adding value to the gold membership," said Xbox director of marketing Albert Penello. "I mean, obviously, the partnership there -- it's a lot of bandwidth. Obviously, there's the cost of the licensing on the Netflix side, so…you're not really paying for the movie. On silver, you have to pay for the TV show or movie that you download. Here, you don't, so the relationship in gold kind of takes care of that funny business."

http://multiplayerblog.mtv.com/2008/10/09/xbl-why-paying-for-netflix/

It's not that bad PR spin I guess

 

[kaching]

The underlying problem here is that when you come out and initially announce that you'll be launching in 21 countries this year, only to downgrade that by a third within about a month of that original announcement, whatever excuse you give for the delay is going to be suspicious since the original launch announcement now comes off as a bluff in the first place.

 

[Wereroku]

There is a good chance that the chip has low yields however it could be that it is as projected. Having less units than ps4 is not that crazy considering the size of the apu. It probably has a lower per wafer number but i doubt we are looking at a fermi type issue.

 

[ypo]

Bad comparison, because the DRM stuff was already there/original plan.

Oh come on, that's not fair! I don't even know which comment you are quoting

Hahah you can't quote a quote stupid GAF software. The bottom quote. The launching first thing.

 

[Amir0x]

I'm seriously trying to determine how we could validate either side of the argument

I.E. whether there are or are not yield issues based on launch

How would the numbers have to play out to confirm it one way or the other?

If they launch with like 2 million consoles that seems a lot to me but if PS4 launches with 4 million do we call it yield issues?

(Numbers are terrible I know but for comparison)

Not sure we'll ever know

yeah, which is why I wanted to know what Albert meant by the launch will prove which side is true. Which aspect of the launch could prove that? Technically, the closest bit of evidence we'd ever get for that is a delay of some sort, and we already got that with the 21 -> 13 countries bit.

 

[Klocker]

Well, he brought up trust, and that word is echoed over and over in the DRM poll, so I am just seeing if he would comment. They removed all those restrictions for launch, is it hard to say they won't bring them back? Really that's a big deal to say? Lol

I understand you wanting an answer and why but I don't think any company in their right mind would answer it unless they really WERE prepared to lie to us... which contrary to popular belief here I do not think is the case with Albert/MS. They are not going to say something that will come back and bite them in the ass in the future as those types of plans can change drastically depending on many factors.

that whole thread is a lot of nonsense asking for some promise that nobody can promise without blowing smoke up our asses

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

The underlying problem here is that when you come out and initially announce that you'll be launching in 21 countries this year, only to downgrade that by a third within about a month of that original announcement, whatever excuse you give for the delay is going to be suspicious since the original launch announcement now comes off as a bluff in the first place.

that's where the problem comes from. Had they just stuck with November and never mentions countries this thread wouldn't even exists.

 

[Moonstone]

Bad preorder numbers were supposed to be reason behind the DRM reversal. Also the preorder numbers are supposed to be 4 to 1 or something like that. neither of those are 100% confirmed, I just used the assumption of bad preorders as one of the reasons as to why they don't need to push the Europe launch back to so far when the have so many units according to the yield article.

Thx I see were your coming from since "bad" is pretty relative. I just don't dig the comparison tothe 360, because even bad Xbone numbers should still be better than those 360 numbers, even with 8 countries less.

 

[Albert Penello]

Albert!

Yes or No..

Will Microsoft bring back any of the pre 180 DRM policies outside of family sharing (they have already entertained bringing ifamily sharing back in the future)? Examples would be the inability to share or lend disc games, the inability to trade or sell disc based games, the once a 24 hour online check, kinect required to be plugged in. Will Microsoft bring any of these back in the future?

I think a clear answer would help some people with trust issues and Microsoft. Just look at the crazy poll results on this forum asking the same question....

I don’t want to open up an entirely new issue here, but here’s my shot. I don’t see that ever happening with content you’re buying today either on disc and digitally. All of that DRM stuff was in place because there was no physical security on the disc itself, so all the licensing was done digitally. When you build that type of model, then you need to make sure people can’t install games on a bunch of machines, then unplug them. That would have made us an awesome Pirating machine, and that can’t happen for obvious reasons.

When we went back to disc security, those DRM policies weren't necessary. So no reason to turn it on later.

If there’s ambiguity, it’s because it’s possible that, in the future, IF WE ADDED BACK some of those family sharing ideas we had in the beginning, we’d have reintroduce similar types of policies. So IF you wanted to have a game and have that family sharing, always-in-the-cloud, and digital loaning – then we might add those requirements back. You can imagine a world where we have both types of models at the same time.

Again, big IF, but the bottom line is I wouldn’t worry about us making those policies “retroactive” which seems to be the issue I hear people worry about.