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[slaughterking]

does he get his info from famitsu or MC?

Famitsu

 

[frankie_baby]

Famitsu

thanks

 

[Pie and Beans]

Portable 3rd still the beast to beat. Now the entire fanbase has been forced into the 3DS ecosystem, as I said the other week, the titles that will have a chance to prove MonHun sales didn't peak back then is perhaps a Monster Hunter 5 or 4 2G.

Kind of distressing news that "hundreds" worked on MonHun though. I mean obviously theres money to spare since it makes it back no problem, but this just goes to show the dangerous bloat all the old dinosaurs of the past have taken on board.

 

[Peru]

Portable 3rd still the beast to beat. Now the entire fanbase has been forced into the 3DS ecosystem, as I said the other week, the titles that will have a chance to prove MonHun sales didn't peak back then is perhaps a Monster Hunter 5 or 4 2G.

Kind of distressing news that "hundreds" worked on MonHun though. I mean obviously theres money to spare since it makes it back no problem, but this just goes to show the dangerous bloat all the old dinosaurs of the past have taken on board.

Well those numbers do not include digital numbers, which are sure to be a couple of hundred thousand (since launch). In total it might be on par or over. With talk of limited supply we can't say whether it will outsell Portable 3rd physically yet either.

Outside of the graphics engine it's a pretty big effort of a game to make and it was even delayed to get everything they wanted in place. Compare it to other MHs and it's got the monster number of the G versions, all new areas and mechanics and for the first time many base villages. More cutscenes than before as well, symphonic soundtrack, endless weapon balancing and item variation. Doesn't necessarily mean hundreds are needed but we don't know what that statement refers to exactly either.

 

[Spiegel]

Pretty big drop for MH. Still sold out?

And the comparison in M-C will be worse, considering M-C had MHP3 at 600k+ and MH4 won't include download cards here.

 

[liger05]

Pretty big drop for MH. Still sold out?

And the comparison in M-C will be worse, considering M-C had MHP3 at 600k+ and MH4 won't include download cards here.

Remember MHP3 was released in holiday season.

 

[frankie_baby]

Pretty big drop for MH. Still sold out?

And the comparison in M-C will be worse, considering M-C had MHP3 at 600k+ and MH4 won't include download cards here.

don't forget though portable3rd launched in the holidays, mh4 will likely get a holiday boost at the point in its life when 3rd was down to selling around 20k

 

[metalslimer]

Yeah you really can't compare a launch in December exactly. It's about in line with what I expected after last week and yes their apparently is a stock situation.

 

[Tom_Cody]

-------------------------------------------------------------
|    |  [B]MH Portable 3rd[/B]  |  [B]Monster Hunter 4[/B] |  [B]Difference[/B]  |
|    | [PSP] (2010.12.01)| [3DS] (2013.09.14)|              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   | MHP3rd - MH4 |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|  1 |2.146.467|2.146.467|1.875.115|1.875.115|      -271.352|
|  2 |  514.198|2.660.665|  432.000|2.307.115|      -353.550|
|  3 |  434.837|3.095.502|         |         |              |  
|  4 |  385.487|3.480.989|         |         |              | 
|  5 |  317.471|3.798.460|         |         |              |  
|  6 |  155.839|3.954.299|         |         |              |  
|  7 |   80.703|4.035.002|         |         |              |  
|  8 |   56.450|4.091.452|         |         |              |  
|  9 |   39.453|4.130.905|         |         |              | 
| 10 |   32.655|4.163.560|         |         |              |
| 11 |  104.900|4.268.460|         |         |              |
| 12 |   26.865|4.295.325|         |         |              |
| 13 |   20.594|4.315.919|         |         |              |
| 14 |   16.912|4.332.831|         |         |              |
| 15 |   13.981|4.346.722|         |         |              |
| 16 |   11.924|4.358.646|         |         |              |
| 17 |   13.536|4.372.182|         |         |              |
| 18 |   12.946|4.385.128|         |         |              |
| 19 |    9.589|4.394.171|         |         |              |
| 20 |    6.246|4.400.963|         |         |              |
| 21 |    5.929|4.406.892|         |         |              |
| 22 |    7.442|4.414.334|         |         |              |
| 23 |    7.381|4.421.175|         |         |              |
| 24 |    3.844|4.425.599|         |         |              |
| 25 |    3.766|4.429.365|         |         |              |
| 26 |    4.360|4.433.725|         |         |              |
| 27 |    4.170|4.437.895|         |         |              |
| 28 |    3.856|4.441.751|         |         |              |
| 29 |    3.796|4.445.547|         |         |              |
| 30 |    3.711|4.449.258|         |         |              |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |  Difference  |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|  1 |3.480.989|3.480.989|2.307.115|2.307.115|    -1.173.874|
|  2 |1.024.457|4.502.446|        -|        -|             -|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| LTD|        -|4.502.446|        -|2.307.115|    -2.195.331|     
-------------------------------------------------------------

[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 3rd (Capcom) {2010.12.01} - 2.146.467 / 4.502.446
[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 3rd (PSP the Best) (Capcom) {2011.09.22} - 15.113 / 324.206

Total - 4.826.665

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (Capcom) {2013.09.14} - 1.875.115 / 2.307.115

Do these numbers factor in eShop sales?

 

[metalslimer]

Do these numbers factor in eShop sales?

They include download tickets bought in stores, but not bought directly off the eshop. We'll have a better picture when Capcom tell us the shipped numbers including digital. They definitely won't be AC numbers, but should be decent.

3DS now overtaken Wii LTD. New thread worthy (not by me!)

Deserved. Will be at least a year and a half if not 2 to beat the PSP though.

 

[BriBri]

3DS now overtaken Wii LTD. New thread worthy (not by me!)

 

[RyougaSaotome]

It's still sold out here in Nagasaki, not that that means much necessarily.

 

[VAPitts]

He didn't say only that, it was followed by something like "Nintendo wouldn't have a problem to revover from a potential Wii U slow start". I remember it because I disagreed with him for this scenario. Not so accurate in the end.

u want a cookie?

 

[metalslimer]

u want a cookie?

Still believe people doubting Wii U's recovery chances are just doomsayers?

If Amazon.jp is anything to go, next shipment for MH4 is on Sunday the 29th. Sold out since last weekend.

Pokemon is probably going to make things worse for stock.

 

[hiska-kun]

Pretty big drop for MH. Still sold out?

And the comparison in M-C will be worse, considering M-C had MHP3 at 600k+ and MH4 won't include download cards here.

If Amazon.jp is anything to go, next shipment for MH4 is on Sunday the 29th. Sold out since last weekend.

 

[Mpl90]

Still Gibson

Enterbrain - retailers say MH4 selling like hot cakes and sold out in some stores

 

[DaBoss]

I don't think the full MH team was working on MH4. There is MHF(G) which is the internal made MMO. There are those spin-off games which I believe are also internally made. Then there is the main team.
Oh nvm.
He was talking about MH4, yessh. Capcom, straighten your shit out.

 

[gogogow]

I don't think the full MH team was working on MH4. There is MHF(G) which is the internal made MMO. There are those spin-off games which I believe are also internally made. Then there is the main team.

internally made as in by Capcom? Or was MH Frontier always made by Tsujimoto's team?

 

[L Thammy]

I seem to recall there being one team that handles the main game and another that handled the expansions. Beyond that, Eighting was involved in 3G.
EDIT: I can't seem to find the information, so maybe I'm wrong.

Frontier is headed by a separate team from those.

 

[DaBoss]

internally made as in by Capcom? Or was MH Frontier always made by Tsujimoto's team?

Yea, made by Capcom.

 

[gogogow]

Yea, made by Capcom.

I know, just wanted to know whether it was made by Tsujimoto's team or not, but obviously not, that games feels like a fan modded game...

 

[marc^o^]

3DS 2013 is poised to outperform 3DS 2012 before Pokemon is even out. Who still wants to bet against FY growth?

 

[mugurumakensei]

3DS 2013 is poised to outperform 3DS 2012 before Pokemon is even out. Who still wants to bet against FY growth?

At this point, the limitation is gonna be hardware stock and not a lack of demand.

 

[SmokyDave]

3DS 2013 is poised to outperform 3DS 2012 before Pokemon is even out. Who still wants to bet against FY growth?

Who was betting against it?

I feel like I'm probably the most cynical where 3DS sales are concerned, and even I acknowledged that they'd catch up before the year ends.

 

[Magicpaint]

3DS hardware held up really well, MH4 second week sales are good too, though not as good as MHP3rd/MH2ndG. Still, it seems like there's supply issue with the physical copies recently so a big restock will be needed soon.

 

[sörine]

I don't think the full MH team was working on MH4. There is MHF(G) which is the internal made MMO. There are those spin-off games which I believe are also internally made. Then there is the main team.
Oh nvm.
He was talking about MH4, yessh. Capcom, straighten your shit out.

Frontier is made in Tokyo by Capcom Online Games, totally different from Capcom's core R&D in Osaka. Same group is making Deep Down.

 

[test_account]

I dont think that it matters that much if Monster Hunter launch in December or not concidering the popularity of the serie. MH4 sold more than MHP3rd despite not releasing in December and only had 2 days of sales in the first week instead of 5 days (which MHP3rd had). Technically, 2nd weeks sales should also be stronger if the 1st week sales had less days of sales, taken into concideration that there is no supply shortage of course.

 

[mugurumakensei]

I dont think that it matters that much if Monster Hunter launch in December or not concidering the popularity of the serie. MH4 sold more than MHP3rd despite not releasing in December and only had 2 days of sales in the first week instead of 5 days (which MHP3rd had). Technically, 2nd weeks sales should also be stronger if the 1st week sales had less days of sales, taken into concideration that there is no supply shortage of course.

Though in this case there is a supply shortage as stated by Gibson.

 

[Magicpaint]

Who was betting against it?

I feel like I'm probably the most cynical where 3DS sales are concerned, and even I acknowledged that they'd catch up before the year ends.

I've had this discussion with you more than a few times and there was definitely a recent one where you expected a YoY decline

 

[metalslimer]

I dont think that it matters that much if Monster Hunter launch in December or not concidering the popularity of the serie. MH4 sold more than MHP3rd despite not releasing in December and only had 2 days of sales in the first week instead of 5 days (which MHP3rd had). Technically, 2nd weeks sales should also be stronger if the 1st week sales had less days of sales, taken into concideration that there is no supply shortage of course.

Assuming no stock situation which their apparently is for MH4 so this argument doesn't really matter, December certainly provides larger legs for games even bigger ones. MHP3rd was stock constrained anyway, so we would have seen even bigger sales that december with more stock.

 

[Aostia]

I dont think that it matters that much if Monster Hunter launch in December or not concidering the popularity of the serie. MH4 sold more than MHP3rd despite not releasing in December and only had 2 days of sales in the first week instead of 5 days (which MHP3rd had). Technically, 2nd weeks sales should also be stronger if the 1st week sales had less days of sales, taken into concideration that there is no supply shortage of course.

post-launch sales is exactly where the holiday-non holiday seasons gap has a meaning.

 

[SmokyDave]

I've had this discussion with you more than a few times and there was definitely a recent one where you expected a YoY decline

I'd be interested to read that exchange in case you misunderstood me, or I phrased myself poorly. The consistent YoY decline in the US and Japan has seemed more significant to me than it's treated, but with Pokemon on the way I figured some growth was a given. I might not have always felt that way though, so I won't argue too strongly

 

[shinra-bansho]

Y/Y growth is possible, but their fiscal year forecast (18M) is still unlikely, even with the 2DS, I imagine.

 

[metalslimer]

Y/Y growth is possible, but their fiscal year forecast (18M) is still unlikely, even with the 2DS, I imagine.

I think it's still up in the air on how this quarter is for them. Another bad quarter and there is little chance they manage to ship so many units in 2 quarters.

 

[test_account]

Though in this case there is a supply shortage as stated by Gibson.

Assuming no stock situation which their apparently is for MH4 so this argument doesn't really matter, December certainly provides larger legs for games even bigger ones. MHP3rd was stock constrained anyway, so we would have seen even bigger sales that december with more stock.

Yeah, i was thinking more in general about 2nd week sales if the 1st week sales had fewer days. I saw the comments about that MH4 might still have supply issues, so that will affect the numbers indeed.

post-launch sales is exactly where the holiday-non holiday seasons gap has a meaning.

For games in general, sure, but i dont think Monster Hunter is affected that much by it. Same thing with other huge franchises like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto. We saw the mega strong sales of GTA5 despite not being a holiday season.

 

[L Thammy]

Say 4 performs better than Portable 3rd in total, but not at retail alone. Should we expect Capcom to be bragging about this?
In fact, comparing the two right now seems kind of fruitless for that reason.

Regarding sales targets. I'm not too familiar with them. Which companies tend to overshoot their targets and which tend to be more reasonable?

 

[DaBoss]

Capcom overshoots everything other than MH. Nintendo overshoots hardware all of the time. Not sure about software for Nintendo.

 

[slaughterking]

Say 4 performs better than Portable 3rd in total, but not at retail alone. Should we expect Capcom to be bragging about this?
In fact, comparing the two right now seems kind of fruitless for that reason.

Regarding sales targets. I'm not too familiar with them. Which companies tend to overshoot their targets and which tend to be more reasonable?

Capcom tends to overshoot, except for their conservative Monster Hunter forecasts.

 

[Spiegel]

The holiday bump doesn't usually happen until mid december. That would be week 3 for MHP3.

Not that it matters when it was selling everything Capcom was shipping and MH4 seems to be sold out still.

 

[mugurumakensei]

Capcom overshoots everything other than MH. Nintendo overshoots hardware all of the time. Not sure about software for Nintendo.

That's not being entirely fair. They overshoot a lot. They also are a bit too conservative on other titles. Other times, they guess exactly right. That applies to just about every company though. It's better to look at franchise estimates since those will show consistent trends.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

3DS now overtaken Wii LTD. New thread worthy (not by me!)

Why? All its going to result in are people saying console gaming is dead in Japan.

 

[test_account]

Say 4 performs better than Portable 3rd in total, but not at retail alone. Should we expect Capcom to be bragging about this?
In fact, comparing the two right now seems kind of fruitless for that reason.

I think they would, or at least have it in the fiscal reports. Digital or retail, its still a sale after all

 

[DaBoss]

That's not being entirely fair. They overshoot a lot. They also are a bit too conservative on other titles. Other times, they guess exactly right. That applies to just about every company though. It's better to look at franchise estimates since those will show consistent trends.

Yea, I was being hyperbolic there lol.

Operation Raccoon City did surpass expectations, though I'm not entirely sure if that is a good thing for the series.

 

[Magicpaint]

I'd be interested to read that exchange in case you misunderstood me, or I phrased myself poorly. The consistent YoY decline in the US and Japan has seemed more significant to me than it's treated, but with Pokemon on the way I figured some growth was a given. I might not have always felt that way though, so I won't argue too strongly

There

But you've changed your position before. I remember because I've been equally interested in YoY trend though for maybe different reasons as I don't think a slight YoY increase or decrease means all that much, and that's what I think we'll most likely be seeing come year's end.

The holiday bump doesn't usually happen until mid december. That would be week 3 for MHP3.

Not that it matters when it was selling everything Capcom was shipping and MH4 seems to be sold out still.

Yeah P3rd was sold out for weeks and it seems MH4 is also having some stock issues so comparisons can't be all that accurate just yet.

 

[BriBri]

Why? All its going to result in are people saying console gaming is dead in Japan.

So that negates it from being of significance?

 

[SmokyDave]

There

But you've changed your position before. I remember because I've been equally interested in YoY trend though for maybe different reasons as I don't think a slight YoY increase or decrease means all that much, and that's what I think we'll most likely be seeing come year's end.

Eh, that's a fair cop, guvnor. I'll hold my hands up

 

[hiska-kun]

The holiday bump doesn't usually happen until mid december. That would be week 3 for MHP3.

Not that it matters when it was selling everything Capcom was shipping and MH4 seems to be sold out still.

That's why I think the best we can do is waiting until Christmas 2013 is over.

 

[Road]

Famitsu: http://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/

Media-Create: http://www.4gamer.net/games/117/G011794/20130925055/

 

[Spiegel]

Heh, M-C higher than Famitsu.

 

[DaBoss]

Interesting to see MC MH4 > Fam MH4.

And the Vita and Wii U are just neck and neck on both trackers...