They must be thinking Stockholm syndrome will kick in soon.
US Federal Government Shutdown | Shutdown Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Raised
- Thread starter Jarmel
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They must be thinking Stockholm syndrome will kick in soon.
What would the point be? The value of the dollar plummeting has the same effect whether we're talking cash deposits or physical bills. If we default, the US dollar tanks, and any spare money you have lying around suddenly becomes worth a lot less.
Not in the US. One likely effect of a default would be substantial weakening of the dollar against other currencies, but that doesn't mean massive inflation is going to suddenly happen.
I'm flying to Ireland tomorrow. So I should empty my bank account in Euros, huh?
smokeandmirrors
Banned
*nod* Comrade.
You guys won't default. You guys can't default. It's not going to happen. It just isn't.
Nobody can be that stupid.
Right.
... Right.
Right?
PLEASE LET ME BE RIGHT.
You'd think Republicans of all people would know how this would affect the economy and their owner's businesses.
Nobody can be that stupid.
Right.
... Right.
Right?
PLEASE LET ME BE RIGHT.
You'd think Republicans of all people would know how this would affect the economy and their owner's businesses.
User 100115
Banned
Remember that this is the US Government you are talking about.
Yeah, we can be that stupid.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
Given everything from the past year and then some, no republican anywhere in a position of power has any idea how economies work. Hence the popularity of comparing a government budget to a household one.
A significant portion of our voter base literally thinks the current US President is the spawn of a fallen archangel.... sorry rest of the world.
theprodigy
Member
fixed for accuracy
I'm not saying THEY should know. I'm saying their owners should know how this affects their businesses. This isn't about social security/services anymore where business owners don't care. This is literally about the ENTIRE world economy.
Even if the politicians would actually do nothing and continue the theatre, I'm still not convinced a default would happen. The tax revenues are enough to pay interest on the debt, and the debt can be rolled over into new bonds.
The only thing I've seen against this are articles claiming the treasury's software does not support this, but if push comes to shove I bet they'll find a way. It's actually puzzling if they haven't fixed that yet.
tldr - the treasury can avoid default no matter what congress does.
The only thing I've seen against this are articles claiming the treasury's software does not support this, but if push comes to shove I bet they'll find a way. It's actually puzzling if they haven't fixed that yet.
tldr - the treasury can avoid default no matter what congress does.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
Problem is there is a decent sized subset of republicans that don't give a shit. They would rather default and ruin the country than let Obama "win" as they see it. People beyond the control of anyone. It's truly frightening.
Not arguing for people being beholden to some financial overlord, but the idea that these people cannot and will not reason is frightening shit.
I think it's important to maintain some perspective on this. Obviously no one knows for sure, but I don't think it's likely that things would be worse than the Great Depression. I suspect it'd be more on the scale of the 2008 credit crunch, as the underlying causes would be similar.
No riots, no burning buildings, no earthquakes. The only immediate effect we'd feel is seeing the talking heads making grim faces and pointing at scary graphs of the stock market. Long-term, of course, would not be so great.
wsoxfan1214
Banned
Smelly, as I mentioned in the NHL thread, the Republicans in our House of Representatives are complete and utter fucking idiots.
So there is a real chance we might.
Let your Swedish mind wrap around that for a moment.
So there is a real chance we might.
Let your Swedish mind wrap around that for a moment.
It can't. If you stop to think about it, you'll realize why this is so. The Treasury's software doesn't support this not only because there's never been any need for it, but because the Treasury doesn't have that kind of authority. Congress gets to decide what the US government spends its money on, Treasury just disburses it. No doubt if a law had been passed allowing Treasury to prioritize payments in a crisis (but who would have voted for such a terrifying and unprecedented granting of authority?) then they'd have set up their software to allow it. As it stands, it's simply not possible.
Yep. According to Costa, the small donor for the Pubs has gone up during the shutdown, and they're all scared that caving will cause them to lose support. So they're ignoring the big money for the moment.
Of course, that hasn't stopped them from pushing the removal of the med device tax, which is big business influenced.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
I can picture it now.
"Should we write and test a case for when the country defaults?"
*laughter*
"next item"
Because financial assets only hold up if people are confident in their inherent value. That's what props them up as a universal standard of bartering and representation of debts.
You suddenly tell someone that hey, $10,000 isn't really $10,000 anymore, panic sets in.
Liberty4all
Banned
3 days left. Monday morning the smart money starts diversifying. By Tuesday the panic in the markets will start if there doesn't look like a solution is in the works.
Don't panic so hard guys. Nothing is systemically wrong with the economy like in 2008 that's going to tank the economy. This is just a man-made problem that's relatively easily reparable.
If we make it to Thursday with no deal and the Dow is down over 700+ points and widespread panic occurs I think even this Congress could be urged into action within a few days.
Just use it as a buying opportunity for temporarily suppressed stocks and come out ahead by Halloween.
........
And if not?
Well it's 1985 Alternate baby!! You better stock up on freeze dried and get to your bug out location before bikers take over the city. Not me though, I'm a champion poker player. I'm looking forward to this shit.
If we make it to Thursday with no deal and the Dow is down over 700+ points and widespread panic occurs I think even this Congress could be urged into action within a few days.
Just use it as a buying opportunity for temporarily suppressed stocks and come out ahead by Halloween.
........
And if not?
Well it's 1985 Alternate baby!! You better stock up on freeze dried and get to your bug out location before bikers take over the city. Not me though, I'm a champion poker player. I'm looking forward to this shit.
Odothehero
Member
So how big a deal is this med device tax? I've seen it thrown around a lot but I'm not really sure if it's a real concession for the Dems or just some insignificant minutia.
Liberty4all
Banned
Fascism/authoritism "for the good of the country" is a bigger worry IMHO.
Cheered on by many
Anticitizen One
Banned
I kinda want them to not raise the debt ceiling. I just wanna see what happens.
Odothehero
Member
Ugh that's rage inducing. Thanks for the link man. Hopefully the Dems stay strong
removed.
Sanky Panky
Banned
Funny you say that, because my macroeconomic beliefs are based on Keynes' General Theory, and not some cookie-cutter re-arrangement of the income function that MMT relies on. Moreover, what people learn about Keynes today was co-opted by the old quantity of money theorists of the day, and the neo-classics. They cherry-picked his theories to justify fiscal and monetary policy to affect employment... when he did not argue for that.
But let GAF fall into the mesmerizing utopia of MMT. With the next market collapse, it should be further discredited.
eBay Huckster
Member
Yes, yes, we get it, your interpretation of General Theory is the most correct interpretation of macroeconomics ever devised, and all neo-Keynesians and neoclassical economists are wrong because you understand it that well.
MMT is immaterial to any point I, or anyone whose username isn't empty vessel in this thread, am trying to make given that I'm not a chartalist.
You're just like EV except you don't realize what you're doing in every thread about macroeconomics.
You definitely don't want to see what happens.
PJV3
Member
I obviously don't want an economic collapse but the US should be more concerned about its democracy than the economy. the crazy 20% boil has to be lanced.
They lost the presidency, they only control congress through very dodgy tactics and they have zero regard for any concessions coming from the rest of the population.
They lost the presidency, they only control congress through very dodgy tactics and they have zero regard for any concessions coming from the rest of the population.
SteveWinwood
Member
Have you stuck your penis in whirling blades? Just to see what happens?
no you don't, if the fear in the stock markets snowballs, yikes
We are headed for disaster again aren't we? A bunch of middle aged and old men can't agree to a fucking budget so now the entire world will pay the price. I can't believe its come to this, the federal government is incapable of functioning on even its most basic level of paying the fucking bills. Its embarrassing and pathetic.
I am just glad my company got all of the money for our contract last year for the next 5 years from the federal government/military.
I am just glad my company got all of the money for our contract last year for the next 5 years from the federal government/military.
eBay Huckster
Member
I'd say about a 25% chance at this point, and steadily rising.
maquiladora
Member
Extremely unlikely.
What's the way out then?
One of the sides are going to have to eat shit and I doubt it's going to be the President or Dems.
He's going to have to give them something though, isn't he, so they can claim a partial victory?
Escape Goat
Member
Fox News headline says "GOP accuses Dems of moving goalposts". I can't help but laugh at the irony.
GOP will claim a partial victory no matter what happens. As long they keep moving the goal posts - which has already happening a handful of times in the two week span already - they can't lose to their constituents.
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