US Federal Government Shutdown | Shutdown Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Raised

Status
Not open for further replies.
You completely forgot one huge point. Businesses are taxed if they don't provide healthcare which would cover part or all of the subsidies costs

Why would business want to be taxed when they can provide a tax free benefit.

What sort of tax are we talking about? Is it more then the average it would cost to provide health care to an employee?

From what it looks like, small businesses of 50 employees or less can just use the Exchanges themselves anyway. So will that not be extra people within the exchanges that were not originally planned in the budget? As you know, businesses have ways of getting around laws.

I don't think large corporations really worry about the costs of providing healthcare. Seriously doubt Apple is shaking in their boots here lol. But a company like the mom and pop diner down the street offering the great waffles and fresh coffee each morning, could be a diff. story.
 
What sort of tax are we talking about? Is it more then the average it would cost to provide health care to an employee?

From what it looks like, small businesses of 50 employees or less can just use the Exchanges themselves anyway. So will that not be extra people within the exchanges that were not originally planned in the budget? As you know, businesses have ways of getting around laws.

I don't think large corporations really worry about the costs of providing healthcare. Seriously doubt Apple is shaking in their boots here lol. But a company like the mom and pop diner down the street offering the great waffles and fresh coffee each morning, could be a diff. story.

What mom and pop store has more than 50 workers? Definitely not mom and pop in the traditional sense
 
I have a question, seem to be plenty of intelligent people out there who should be able to provide ... clarification for me.

This whole thing is about Obamacare, pretty sure that is the only thing being agreed upon about this whole shutdown. Now, it seems the Republican's main problem with Obamacare is how much money it will end up costing. The main reason for this concern is, once Obamacare if fully up and going, you will have businesses dropping its health-care plans and sending their employers to the exchanges to find healthcare there. And hey, as a businessman, why would you not do this? Why would you spend so much money to keep people on a company healthcare plan when they could easily be dropped and go to the exchanges to find healthcare?

Now, if that indeed does happen over the years, then the previous estimates of the costs of Obamacare would be inaccurate. Especially any workers making in the 20-40K a year range, which is plenty of them. The actual cost of Obamacare could be massive and in Republicans views, unsustainable due to the massive subsidies people will get each year. The more people in the exchanges then the more subsidies being sent out.

My question is, how are they wrong? Or atleast ....... how is this something our current economy can sustain in its present status?

Dropping people's healthcare plans is a pay cut. In a functional economy, you'll have to compensate for this pay cut with increased wages. (Note that Trader Joe's did exactly this when it dropped health care this year.) Meanwhile, adding more people to the exchanges will continue to drive down the price of insurance. Both of these factors will lower the subsidy amount. In the short term, the employer mandate is meant to ensure that bigger businesses don't attempt to do this.

That said, yes, if everybody moves to the exchanges, which would really be preferable, Obamacare will cost somewhat more than currently projected. But this will take years to happen, by which point hopefully our economy will have recovered, and then we can add a public option and solve the problem.
 
What sort of tax are we talking about? Is it more then the average it would cost to provide health care to an employee?

From what it looks like, small businesses of 50 employees or less can just use the Exchanges themselves anyway. So will that not be extra people within the exchanges that were not originally planned in the budget? As you know, businesses have ways of getting around laws.

I don't think large corporations really worry about the costs of providing healthcare. Seriously doubt Apple is shaking in their boots here lol. But a company like the mom and pop diner down the street offering the great waffles and fresh coffee each morning, could be a diff. story.

If they have more than 50 employees they're not THAT mom and pop.
 
What sort of tax are we talking about? Is it more then the average it would cost to provide health care to an employee?

I'm fairly sure the large-employer tax in question is a very strong disincentive against simply dropping coverage and forcing people onto the exchanges (otherwise it'd have no point!), but I'm not entirely sure of the exact dollar amount(s).
 
What sort of tax are we talking about? Is it more then the average it would cost to provide health care to an employee?

From what it looks like, small businesses of 50 employees or less can just use the Exchanges themselves anyway. So will that not be extra people within the exchanges that were not originally planned in the budget? As you know, businesses have ways of getting around laws.

I don't think large corporations really worry about the costs of providing healthcare. Seriously doubt Apple is shaking in their boots here lol. But a company like the mom and pop diner down the street offering the great waffles and fresh coffee each morning, could be a diff. story.

Dead wrong. Personnel costs are a huge expense for large companies, and healthcare can be up to 25 to 30 percent of that, if not more. Every business treads a fine line between paying too much, and offering enough in benefits to keep their workers from leaving.

Some companies like apple or Google who are rolling in profits might not care, as would someplace like Wal-Mart or McDonald's with insanely high turnover and a low skilled workforce. Those are the exceptions though, not the rule.

As for the "mom and pop selling waffles", if they have enough employees that theyre no longer exempt (50 full time staff, iirc) theyre hardly what most of us would call a mom and pop small business. I deal with companies with millions in revenue that easily get by on 30 or 40.
 
This whole thing is about Obamacare, pretty sure that is the only thing being agreed upon about this whole shutdown. Now, it seems the Republican's main problem with Obamacare is how much money it will end up costing.

My understanding is they hate Obama care because
a) Obama is a American hating Muslim
b) It forces people to have healthcare. Because in their world people don't have healthcare because they choose not to have it, not because they can't afford it....
 
Again, I'm tryin g to understand how a privately run system (Obamacare) fits into negotiations about federal budget. Particularly, how are the subsidies that get paid funded? IS government spending involved at all?

Yes, the government pays the subsidies. But they're mandatory spending, so they really aren't involved in the budget negotiations. That's why the GOP's strategy was actually to shut down the whole government instead of trying to negotiate.
 
Ah ok gotcha so a company with less then 50 employee's does not have anything to worry about? They basically enter into the Exchange and do not have to pay anything for the premiums?

Again, I'm tryin g to understand how a privately run system (Obamacare) fits into negotiations about federal budget. Particularly, how are the subsidies that get paid funded? IS government spending involved at all?

I'm pretty certain it is a budget item ( well not technically marked in the budget, but it is an expense .... )? Due to the subsidies, it is basically a giant tax credit going out to those who need it to be able to afford the cost of the health care plans. Atleast, it is money going out from the Government into people's hands, like if you receive tax money in February / March for your various credit's.
 
1 - Bonds are liquid, Government bonds are less so, and certainly less than most other securities.

You are empirically incorrect. Government bonds, and especially US Treasury bonds, are among the most liquid of securities and far more liquid than corporate bonds. I don't know what world you're living in.

"U.S. Treasury securities are important to a range of market-related trading and analytical activities because of the securities’ immense liquidity."

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/03v09n3/0309flem.pdf

2 - By saving they are financing other peoples spending. Money in the bank is loaned and spent that way. Else invested in other securities or assets, much of which is more liquid. Also remember this is a fractional reserve system, so the amount loaned compared to saved is multiplied.

First, this argument supports direct deficit spending. If refraining from selling bonds meant that people saved in other ways that increased private sector investment, then this would be an improvement. This is the theory of “crowding out,” which is an argument that deficit hawks use against deficit spending (when the joke is on them because really the argument is against selling bonds, not deficit spending per se). The theory of “crowding out” is that a government’s borrowing of money diverts capital from private hands and thereby reduces the amount of loanable funds available to private investors. If you believed in this theory, you would view direct deficit financing as superior to indirect deficit financing.

You are in luck, however, because this theory is a myth and does not hold water. It may well be the case that bond sales divert savings away from other private investments, but it is not the case that “loanable funds” are impacted. This is because banks do not loan funds. They create the money they loan from thin air. In short, banks do not lend reserves. They loan first (against their capital) and then, if necessary, seek reserves to meet legal requirements after the fact. (Some countries have 0 reserve requirements.) In fact, this is related to the reason why the central bank does not control the money supply and why money is endogenously determined by demand. If the demand for money rises and banks meet that demand through loans, they can create an aggregate shortfall in reserves. When that happens, the Federal Reserve has no choice but to add reserves to the system in order to maintain its target interest rate and ensure smooth check clearing. In short, diverting savings away from bonds will not result in more “loanable funds” since that is demand determined and not reserve constrained.

As this requires background in central bank and banking operations that I do not have the time to type out (and which would probably be an inappropriate use of forum space anyway), I will refer you here (PDF), here (PDF), and here to learn more.

3 - The bonds can easily be renewed, avoiding that problem. And thats exactly what the treasury does.

This doesn’t make sense. Bonds don’t get “renewed.” The Treasury sells bonds as necessary to adhere to the law requiring it to. If you mean that people invest in bonds again when other bonds mature, sure. But that’s irrelevant. We just start the same story anew.
 
This. It'll be a dark day if the Republicans get anything out of this that they can use as justification for their actions.

They're going to have to get something even if it's basically an irrelevancy or something. It's like that episode of TWW when Bartlet refuses to sell the Aegis cruisers to Taiwan, and it's revealed that he was never intending to sell them; He just used them as a ploy to get China to climb down so they thought they won. They'll need to throw the Republicans a bone, even if it's a shitty bone.
 
I'm reading in places that the GOP wants Obama to invoke the 14th. I assume then they'll attempt to impeach, as they tried to with Clinton.

Honestly this seems like something the GOP would do, especially with the recent "impeach Obama" rhetoric we heard from Tea Party nutjobs this weekend.
 
Thus, the works of a theoretical, or real, cartel isn't a central bank and fiat money, the works of that cartel are the opportunities to abuse the system.

I actually agree with you on most of the post (some successful central banks), but here is the crux of the matter. The global banks that hold the concentrated power to finance governments, concentrate the power of the media through ownership, influence public policy through policy think tanks, fund campaigns for those elected to office etc... are in a position that they CREATE the opportunities to abuse the system.

The Fed was created by them, you had the speculative boom and bust of the 1920's (in which they got out of the market prior, took out competitor banks that were taking away business from New York, and bought off assets at cents to the dollar).

The deregulation of banks, the neoclassical economic movement culminating with Reagonomics, the reliance of debt for consumption... these are all opportunities CREATED to favor these institutions. All one has to do is follow the money throughout history.

Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
Wars are decided upon my the government, not the bankers. They will finance said wars no matter WHAT they do. This is reverse vampires-level stuff you're putting out there.

Would you at least agree that there are potential economic benefits to governments that go to war? You have blatant examples of wars in the 21st century being carried out to specifically benefit corporate interests (Iraq, Syria, etc), and you still question if politicians answer to interest groups when conducting policy? Governments have the audacity to lie (or obstruct inquiries) about false flag attacks since back in the Spanish-American war... only to go to war. This is only conspiracy, because the true definition of the word is "a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful." The sad part, is that it is not truly secret as time goes on, yet the population ignores it.

Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
Assuming that this is true, that they "drafted" the Fed rather than simply deciding on how best to advise the government: If you're a government creating a large central bank, who would you want to give input on how it ought to be operated? I might go for the rich bankers that have copious experience, but that's just me.

Then I ask you... would the international bankers have the best national interest of the US in creating it, or are they in the business of attaining profits?

P.S. The government was not seeking advice. The US had already three failed attempts at central banks, but a concerted media effort by Warburg, and via the then "General Manager of the Nation", Senator Nelson Aldrich, the legislation passed. Not coincidentally, his daughter was married to John D. Rockefeller Jr. Maybe he was also seeking input then.

You are in luck, however, because this theory is a myth and does not hold water. It may well be the case that bond sales divert savings away from other private investments, but it is not the case that “loanable funds” are impacted. This is because banks do not loan funds. They create the money they loan from thin air. In short, banks do not lend reserves. They loan first (against their capital) and then, if necessary, seek reserves to meet legal requirements after the fact. (Some countries have 0 reserve requirements.) In fact, this is related to the reason why the central bank does not control the money supply and why money is endogenously determined by demand. If the demand for money rises and banks meet that demand through loans, they can create an aggregate shortfall in reserves. When that happens, the Federal Reserve has no choice but to add reserves to the system in order to maintain its target interest rate and ensure smooth check clearing. In short, diverting savings away from bonds will not result in more “loanable funds” since that is demand determined and not reserve constrained.

Quick correction (we've had this discussion before): Banks DO loan funds, in the way that they convert existing assets between risk-free and risky assets to increase their net interest margin, while managing the asset-liability duration mismatch. They go to the discount window to meet short-term cash flow obligations (usually over-night), and the real restraint is the accounting for the capital adequacy ratios that are enforced by the regulatory bodies (and indicate the health--therefore confidence--in banks). Different assets (loans, MBSs, cash, securities) are assigned risk ratings, and determine the capital ratios to Tier 1, Tier 2, i.e. capital. The essence of the Fed buying $40 billion in MBSs each month is to convert these "risky" assets into excess reserves (reflected as risk-free cash in the banks), so that the now improved capital adequacy ratios allow for more loans to be created. Europe is doing the same, through which sovereign (junk) bonds are considered risk-free assetes (risk rating of 0), so that capital ratios are improved, and banks can lend. There too the banks have only increased financial asset holdings, and reduced actual lending, The failure of the policy is that banks rather put the money to work in financial assets (supported by the same QE), to increase profits. So as you can see, the Fed does influence the supply of money via reserves, we DO have a fractional reserve system, however we can safely agree that this policy is shit when it comes to creating jobs.
 
They're going to have to get something even if it's basically an irrelevancy or something. It's like that episode of TWW when Bartlet refuses to sell the Aegis cruisers to Taiwan, and it's revealed that he was never intending to sell them; He just used them as a ploy to get China to climb down so they thought they won. They'll need to throw the Republicans a bone, even if it's a shitty bone.

Why?
 
They're going to have to get something even if it's basically an irrelevancy or something.
When you're trying to make the point that extorting the government shouldn't be rewarded, offering a reward, no matter how small, is counter-productive at the very least.

The GOP deserves nothing but ridicule.
 
I'm reading in places that the GOP wants Obama to invoke the 14th. I assume then they'll attempt to impeach, as they tried to with Clinton.

Honestly this seems like something the GOP would do, especially with the recent "impeach Obama" rhetoric we heard from Tea Party nutjobs this weekend.

Where are you reading this? The Hannity boards?
 
So Republicans are not happy about the mandate spending to fund subsidies, correct? But because it is now law, the other argument is you go and repeal the law, and not use it as "hostage" in these current negotiations, correct?

I think this is an overly optimistic reading of the Republican position on this issue. The actual Republican position is either a) we lost, let's compromise to not go wholly out of the mainstream or b) Obamacare represents the inevitable collapse of the white racist American way of life and we must oppose it at all costs, even if it means sabotaging our democratic system, not for what it is, but for what it means. Neither position is really all that concerned about government spending here.
 
Quick question: how are the subsidies from obamacare being funded?

For people who make more then $200,000 (Or $250,000 for a family) there will be a 3.8% raise in Capital Gains taxes and a 0.9% raise in Payroll taxes on income over $200,000. These are already in effect, though its likely some won't feel them until the end of the year once they reach the threshold. Capital Gains also received anther major hike this year though, so people with lots of investments are not going to be happy.

Anther is the Individual Mandate that will start at 1% of your income if you don't have health insurance in 2014, and rise to the greater of 2.5%/$695 in 2016. Technically this year it is the greater of 1% or $95, but I don't see many people who are making less then $9,500 a year who would be able to get health insurance for only $760 a year in state that didn't expand Medicade (Since if Health Insurance will cost more then 8% of your income, you are exempt from the Individual Mandate tax)
 
I am astonished at the media (and even the democratic party's) efforts at not shining the biggest spotlight ever on the republican party right now. Seriously, it is baffling to keep hearing "cant agree", "obama and republicans", "congress cant agree". it is all bullshit. What they have been doing for the past 5-6 years has been completely fucking baffling. the intellectuals do not have a voice because there would be no argument for anyone to capitalize on. I am so sick and tired of strawman arguments manifested by the media as tho it was a projection of what we are all thinking.

I keep hearing "George Soros is bad!" from my republican family members, but suddenly they want to wreck the government and put all their money in gold because a black guy won twice. It is so fucking ironic is kills me inside.
 

When you're trying to make the point that extorting the government shouldn't be rewarded, offering a reward, no matter how small, is counter-productive at the very least.

The GOP deserves nothing but ridicule.

Because it'll be significantly easier to do that than the alternative, which is hoping the Republicans blink before the Democrats do. They (the Dems) would have to be incredibly confident that the Republicans are getting the majority of the backlash to continue this current state of affairs if they were in a position to end it with a tiny, shitty concession, surely? Then there's the balancing act of future benefits of not giving in vs short term harm of a federal shutdown; This is obviously different to 'not negotiating with terrorists' because terrorists don't run elections every two years.
 
2 - By saving they are financing other peoples spending. Money in the bank is loaned and spent that way. Else invested in other securities or assets, much of which is more liquid. Also remember this is a fractional reserve system, so the amount loaned compared to saved is multiplied.

If this were so why is QE not causing inflation?
 
I am astonished at the media (and even the democratic party's) efforts at not shining the biggest spotlight ever on the republican party right now. Seriously, it is baffling to keep hearing "cant agree", "obama and republicans", "congress cant agree". it is all bullshit. What they have been doing for the past 5-6 years has been completely fucking baffling. the intellectuals do not have a voice because there would be no argument for anyone to capitalize on. I am so sick and tired of strawman arguments manifested by the media as tho it was a projection of what we are all thinking.

I keep hearing "George Soros is bad!" from my republican family members, but suddenly they want to wreck the government and put all their money in gold because a black guy won twice. It is so fucking ironic is kills me inside.

I think the spotlight is about as big as it's going to get. The mood of the general public is against the GOP. Some news outlets are not going to call out the GOP as much because they want to appear neutral.
 
Quick correction (we've had this discussion before): Banks DO loan funds, in the way that they convert existing assets between risk-free and risky assets to increase their net interest margin, while managing the asset-liability duration mismatch. They go to the discount window to meet short-term cash flow obligations (usually over-night), and the real restraint is the accounting for the capital adequacy ratios that are enforced by the regulatory bodies (and indicate the health--therefore confidence--in banks). Different assets (loans, MBSs, cash, securities) are assigned risk ratings, and determine the capital ratios to Tier 1, Tier 2, i.e. capital.

Yes, bank loans are capital constrained. They are not reserve constrained.

The essence of the Fed buying $40 billion in MBSs each month is to convert these "risky" assets into excess reserves (reflected as risk-free cash in the banks), so that the now improved capital adequacy ratios allow for more loans to be created.

And this is why QE is ineffective. One can "allow" for more loans to be created until the cows come home. Absent creditworthy borrowers asking for loans, loans will not occur. This is exactly what the Federal Reserve paper I linked to demonstrates, i.e., that increasing reserves does not result in increased lending activity or "money multipliers."

The failure of the policy is that banks rather put the money to work in financial assets (supported by the same QE), to increase profits. So as you can see, the Fed does influence the supply of money via reserves, we DO have a fractional reserve system, however we can safely agree that this policy is shit when it comes to creating jobs.

One could say that the Fed can influence the money supply in this manner at the zero lower bound, but the reality is that bank reserves are irrelevant to any meaningful understanding of the money supply, for the simple reason that the amount of bank reserves does not influence lending. We know this empirically. In fact, QE helped demonstrate it, per the Fed paper.

See also: http://pragcap.com/banks-and-the-monetary-base-a-friendly-response-to-paul-krugman
 
I hope the Senate can come up with some insubstantial changes to the CR that make Boehner feel like a super awesome big winner and actually allow a vote.

BWji2HiIYAAK3q9.png:large
Look what you did, Congress. LOOK WHAT YOU DID.

THIS HEADLINE IS ON YOU
 
I am astonished at the media (and even the democratic party's) efforts at not shining the biggest spotlight ever on the republican party right now. Seriously, it is baffling to keep hearing "cant agree", "obama and republicans", "congress cant agree". it is all bullshit. What they have been doing for the past 5-6 years has been completely fucking baffling. the intellectuals do not have a voice because there would be no argument for anyone to capitalize on. I am so sick and tired of strawman arguments manifested by the media as tho it was a projection of what we are all thinking.

I keep hearing "George Soros is bad!" from my republican family members, but suddenly they want to wreck the government and put all their money in gold because a black guy won twice. It is so fucking ironic is kills me inside.

I've noticed a dramatic change in tone since that NBC/WSJ poll came out late last week.
 
What sort of tax are we talking about? Is it more then the average it would cost to provide health care to an employee?

From what it looks like, small businesses of 50 employees or less can just use the Exchanges themselves anyway. So will that not be extra people within the exchanges that were not originally planned in the budget? As you know, businesses have ways of getting around laws.

I don't think large corporations really worry about the costs of providing healthcare. Seriously doubt Apple is shaking in their boots here lol. But a company like the mom and pop diner down the street offering the great waffles and fresh coffee each morning, could be a diff. story.
Companies would have to pay a 2000 penalty per petson. That may be less than the average cost to cover someone but its money being thrown down the drain. Most large companies would not want to pay this. Especially when they would most likely have to increase wages to keep competitive since they don't offer health insurance
 
I've noticed a dramatic change in tone since that NBC/WSJ poll came out late last week.

60% is still too low. And I am not trolling.

ACA was ruled constitutional. It should not even be in the discussion, yet this is what the "agreement" or "negotiations" are contingent on. That, or we default. All because they need a talking point to rally up the base for 2014.

This sets a terrible precedent that undermines our country's checks and balances - from a voter and legislative perspective.

As a federal contractor, our company will take a loss inherent to the shutdown. and yet the media will focus on WWII vets protesting memorials, locked arms with congressional culprits of who closed it in the first place.
 
We could have an entite topic on how news media trying to play both sides as equal is hurting the country.
We probably should, even. Though I am at work and on my phone.
 
We could have an entite topic on how news media trying to play both sides as equal is hurting the country.
We probably should, even. Though I am at work and on my phone.

This stems from our society's belief that everything needs winners and losers. Hell, look at the uproar a few years ago when an NFL game ended in a tie.
 
One could say that the Fed can influence the money supply in this manner at the zero lower bound, but the reality is that bank reserves are irrelevant to any meaningful understanding of the money supply, for the simple reason that the amount of bank reserves does not influence lending. We know this empirically. In fact, QE helped demonstrate it, per the Fed paper.

See also: http://pragcap.com/banks-and-the-monetary-base-a-friendly-response-to-paul-krugman

Unfortunately in our current world, those excess reserves held by the banks (reflected as bank deposits over loans to the tune of $2.1 TRILLION dollars) are now crucial to sustaining the illusion of a recovery (inflated global financial asset prices), and can evaporate over-night should the Fed change its tune. Excess reserves matter now more than ever in the eyes of Bernanke, hence the Fed is in the ultimate money catch-22. There is no inflation or the upper bound limit of using excess reserves is far away, because pace of investments has and always will be the determinants of employment and price. In the end, the global markets (hence the new fiat system) is at the mercy of the Fed.
 
This stems from our society's belief that everything needs winners and losers. Hell, look at the uproar a few years ago when an NFL game ended in a tie.
Actually, it's from the fact that everyone is a winner to us.
Everyone is equal on all things. No one is special. No one is at fault.
If we just had winners and losers then we wouldn't have this problem.
 
Actually, it's from the fact that everyone is a winner to us.
Everyone is equal on all things. No one is special. No one is at fault.
If we just had winners and losers then we wouldn't have this problem.
You must be on another Earth.
 
For people who have been following the economics discussion, I want to clarify one thing that could be confusing. When I said that banks "create the money they loan from thin air," this is true, but it should be noted that "bank money" is fundamentally different from the government's money (called "base money" or "high powered money"). When a bank loans money, it does create bank money denominated in US currency but it creates no new net financial assets. This is because bank money comes with a corresponding liability that cancels it out. In other words, a bank loan must be repaid, and when it is repaid the money created disappears.
 
For people who have been following the economics discussion, I want to clarify one thing that could be confusing. When I said that banks "create the money they loan from thin air," this is true, but it should be noted that "bank money" is fundamentally different from the government's money (called "base money" or "high powered money"). When a bank loans money, it does create bank money denominated in US currency but it creates no new net financial assets. This is because bank money comes with a corresponding liability that cancels it out. In other words, a bank loan must be repaid, and when it is repaid the money created disappears.

But we pay interest on that self-cancelling money:/
 
I actually agree with you on most of the post (some successful central banks), but here is the crux of the matter. The global banks that hold the concentrated power to finance governments, concentrate the power of the media through ownership, influence public policy through policy think tanks, fund campaigns for those elected to office etc... are in a position that they CREATE the opportunities to abuse the system.

The Fed was created by them, you had the speculative boom and bust of the 1920's (in which they got out of the market prior, took out competitor banks that were taking away business from New York, and bought off assets at cents to the dollar).

The deregulation of banks, the neoclassical economic movement culminating with Reagonomics, the reliance of debt for consumption... these are all opportunities CREATED to favor these institutions. All one has to do is follow the money throughout history.

I'm starting to change my mind about you, maybe I was wrong in thinking that you were totally crazy :) It was hard to read your intentions through some of your posts which were just snarky responses...

But yes, I agree with the fact that they have opportunities to create more room to abuse the system more, I just disagree with the fact that central banking is the problem here. I think it would be better to actively fight against these opportunities, as I think an actually independent, and functional, central bank and a fiat money system is far superior to the other alternatives in terms for creating welfare and a stable economic system over the long run. Also, to me, your criticism on the Fed specifically seems to be a bit hyperbolic, but I'll think about it more.

I actually had the thought of the American political system giving more and more room, too much, for economic influence while reading Why Nations Fail (which I thought was a fantastic book, as much reasonable theory I have studied is put into historical context). Could be a sign of the American institutions going back to being more exclusionary, which is obviously not a good sign if you believe in that type of institutional theory.
 
For people who have been following the economics discussion, I want to clarify one thing that could be confusing. When I said that banks "create the money they loan from thin air," this is true, but it should be noted that "bank money" is fundamentally different from the government's money (called "base money" or "high powered money"). When a bank loans money, it does create bank money denominated in US currency but it creates no new net financial assets. This is because bank money comes with a corresponding liability that cancels it out. In other words, a bank loan must be repaid, and when it is repaid the money created disappears.

Don't ignore the fact that most debt is refinanced and carried over. As profits and equity values grow during a boom, more money is lent, and debt grows perpetually (until noth lender and borrower risks put a stop to it). We have central banks (again, operated by and for global banks) that don't allow natural debt deflation during busts, and proceed to bail out the big banks that make bad debts. That "bank" money is still slushing in the system, is the basis of the +$60 trillion shadow banking system that holds fiscal and monetary policy hostage, and is the main engine for the global economy. The government and the Fed simply "accomodate" what the bank money wants to do.

ksan said:
I actually had the thought of the American political system giving more and more room, too much, for economic influence while reading Why Nations Fail (which I thought was a fantastic book, as much reasonable theory I have studied is put into historical context). Could be a sign of the American institutions going back to being more exclusionary, which is obviously not a good sign if you believe in that type of institutional theory.

I guess I do have to get better at not sounding snarky. It does put people on the defensive.

I am all for self-regulating independent economic institutions and markets, but too much has to happen before we can get to the point when there are no oligopolies that can excert destabilizing influences on the economy. For example, I am all for social safety nets and regulation, but simply because since the industrial revolution, too much economic power has gone to the hands of a few. I would not rely on them having free reigns, to better the lives of people across the world. The constitution as drafted by the original founding fathers, had explicit constraints around economic influences on government (the Fed had to be created around "implicit" functions of government). This was not by mere coincidence, but by the experiences with debt and paper money of the time. Spearheaded by the philosophy of Thomas Jefferson, even early proponents of government debt (like Benjamin Franklin), came around to the idea. He said "Think what you do when you run in debt; you give to another power over your liberty." George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, James Madison... all were well aware of the dangers of public debt. It all came down to the influence upon a nation that the holders of that debt had. Here are some other quotes about influence, debt, and how we are in our current state:

"Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce." -- James A. Garfield, President of the United States

"It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford

"A great industrial nation is controlled by it's system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world-- no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men." -- President Woodrow Wilson

"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." -- Robert H. Hamphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank

"History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and it's issuance." -- James Madison

"But if in the pursuit of the means we should unfortunately stumble again on unfunded paper money or any similar species of fraud, we shall assuredly give a fatal stab to our national credit in its infancy. Paper money will invariably operate in the body of politics as spirit liquors on the human body. They prey on the vitals and ultimately destroy them. Paper money has had the effect in your state that it will ever have, to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice." -- George Washington in a letter to Jabez Bowen, Rhode Island, Jan. 9, 1787

Edit: forgot Andrew Jackson: The bold effort the present (central) bank had made to control the government ... are but premonitions of the fate that await the American people should they be deluded into a perpetuation of this institution or the establishment of another like it.

There are plenty more, but I guess any one can argue that these are quotes taken out of context. I think they are clear enough to show otherwise. The tool used to excert economic influence on government has, and always will be debt. The system needs a reset at this point if we are to be completely free of these economic influences.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom