Trend implies many data points heading the same direction. First month sales are KZ3>SF>KZ2 so there is no trend
NPD Sales Results for November 2013 [Up3: Zelda, Pokemon, Mario, 3DS, Wii U]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Grinchy
Banned
His opinions on Boardwalk Empire make just as much sense.
It doesn't. I don't think the install base is a valid argument. The PS4 sold more than a million units. People bought other games handsomely. They just didn't care for Shadowfall. and SW was supposed to be a system-seller and there are 15 days of sale reported versus the 4 days for KZ3.
If i were to think after KZ3 how one might change the sales trend of the series, i don't reckon there were better options than being a much-hyped launch title for a system who has broken records in said launch.
If i were to think after KZ3 how one might change the sales trend of the series, i don't reckon there were better options than being a much-hyped launch title for a system who has broken records in said launch.
No?
KZ2 - 323K http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=355837
KZ3 - 279.9K http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=424071
KZ SW - ~270k.
Larrybird.gif
sacrificengineer
Member
Well, going by your logic Dead Rising, Forza, Ryse and Mario are all FUCKED then. Shadow Fall sold better than any of those in a direct competition.
MrCookiepants
Member
Shadow Fall was sold in a lot of bundles, which aren't counted by NPD.
Omotesando
Member
Those series don't have a downward trend of sales and that their sustainability haven't been questioned. If the downward trend continues even as a flagship title of record breaking console, i'm not sure what else can you do.
You're presenting the PS3's consumer base to explain KZ3's better sales, but those sales were better by only 10k. You're basically saying that the millions upon million of the larger base of the PS3 vs PS4 only amounted to 10k additional copies.
You're presenting the PS3's consumer base to explain KZ3's better sales, but those sales were better by only 10k. You're basically saying that the millions upon million of the larger base of the PS3 vs PS4 only amounted to 10k additional copies.
Yeah, i know.
Sammy Samusu
Member
One second I'm 210k then suddenly 70k is me.
freezamite
Banned
WiiU is bombing because it lacks cinematic-ultra-simplistic-hi-tech driven games and offers non-cinematic gameplay-focused games instead, how can be any surprise that games of that same style but with much less renown and worse gameplay execution also bomb?
This is the direction this industry is going towards, and if that past generation killed some gaming genres, this next one that's starting will be a total massacre in that regards if Nintendo can't survive it...
Wolves Evolve
Member
You are ignoring the history of videogames, videogame sales, videogame sales records and videogame sales records analysis.
Of course the install base is a valid argument.
Besides, it released at the same time than BF4 and CoD.
Those facts don't change the game's budget and profitability targets. If Sony's willing to absorb the loss by releasing the game on smaller user base, that doesn't change the fact the series' negative continues and that Killzone isn't a self-sustainable franchise for them.
polyh3dron
Banned
Since they're making a large investment in Brazil to the point of manufacturing there, that means they will most likely be doing Portuguese localizations for all first party titles so there's no reason they can't release that stuff in Portugal.
I'm still convinced that the Wii U would have played a respectable role this fall if "Mario Kart 8" and "Super Smash Bros. Wii U" would have been released by now.
Now even these potential megasellers might come too late to fix this mess. Nintendo really dropped the ball here. They should have done everything in their power to get these games out within the first 12 months after launch.
Now even these potential megasellers might come too late to fix this mess. Nintendo really dropped the ball here. They should have done everything in their power to get these games out within the first 12 months after launch.
MrCookiepants
Member
Then why are you still acting like Shadow Fall sold less than KZ3?
1. I haven't seen a figure for how it sold including the bundles.
2. Historically, discussions on sales of a game discounted copies from bundles because they distort the picture about said game\series. It's better to focus on the data that we can know for sure people bought the game solely because of it and not bring in other motivations.
It seems people are losing interest in games that are all about spectacle and cinema.
DarkLordMalik
Member
It will forever live on in our hearts.
Hopefully, the losses aren't that massive for Sony.
Jeff Albertson
Member
Bloody hell I've just got a vita for Christmas as well
I hope that they at least continue to support it via ps plus and remote play
I hope that they at least continue to support it via ps plus and remote play
Salvor.Hardin
Banned
Weird that Sony hasn't bothered to release the PS4 figures.
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
Wow. Do we have numbers for Ps1 and Ps2 in these months?
Last gen PS3 and 360 had more diverse libraries than the Wii.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Makes me think they are close enough the overall Xbox One numbers.
2DS Pokémon bundles released last Friday, so out of November NPD tracking period. Red and Blue 3DS are the base model.
So why ignore it then? This makes it almost certain that the number of copies of Shadow Fall actually sold, combining bundles and standalone, is higher than the number quoted which is standalone only.
KZ3 was released in 2011, years after the PS3 launch, and the PS3 install base was millions and millions more than that of the PS4 currently. Therefore, millions more potential customers for KZ3 than there were/are currently for Shadow Fall. You can't just say "install base isn't a valid argument" without a reason, because it clearly is valid - if more people own a console, a game's potential userbase will be higher than that of a game on a console owned by less people, and therefore numbers are usually expected to be higher for the game with a higher potential userbase - i.e. KZ3.
Basically, your argument makes no sense.
You just moved the goalposts so far I can't see them any more. Your argument was Killzone SF is "following a trend" because it sold less than KZ3 sold to a vastly larger userbase (and that not even counting bundles, which may well amount to it selling more). Now your argument is completely different, so what's your point.
yeah, but other than that, he has a point
could be. You'd think they'd announce when they hit 3m worldwide (especially if it is soon, a nice counter to MS' 2m), but that would be separate from NPD which is US focused.
feint_ruled
Member
So you accept it probably sold quite a bit more than KZ3, but we should discount those extra sales because we cannot know the buyers motivations? And all this to make your story about KZ's downward trend fit?
NPD doesn't count digital sales and both new consoles are embracing a digital future.
NPDs in trouble, not the industry.
HORRORSHØW
Member
I see Larry's not the only one doing some spinning today.
Yup, comfortably. I can't understand the whole 'MS & Sony consoles only have cinematic AAA shooters'. I can only assume it comes from people that only own a Nintendo console and don't see past the top 10 when assessing the other libraries.
People know it exists, they just don't care.
shinra-bansho
Member
Killzone has a standalone attach rate of 24%. It's the best selling exclusive game on either system. Why are people trying to spin that as bad?
Forza Motorsport 5 between 185K and 200K.
Ryse >185K
The Fighter Within <4K
Ah, okay thanks.
The difference is 229K, for this tracking period.
Dead Rising 3 - between 215K and 220K.
Forza Motorsport 5 between 185K and 200K.
Ryse >185K
The Fighter Within <4K
HORRORSHØW
Member
So profound. Please expound on this sagely metaphor.
Q
qizah
Unconfirmed Member
Actually a lot of people still don't know what it is. It's hard to care about it if you have no idea what it is and have never heard of it. Even this holiday talking with people I've heard 'wait you mean the Wii right?'.
Besides that, I have to imagine that two $400-500 consoles hitting the market soaks up a lot of software dollars. Personally, I bought 8 games during Black Friday last year. This year, I only got 3... one of which I got free from Amazon.
DarkLordMalik
Member
So you are predicting that MS will win in the end, right?
DarkLordMalik
Member
Even a name change or marketing campaign won't save the Wii U at this point.
Sorry for the double post :/
I'm sure they don't. The people I've asked didn't know anything about the console or that it was even out.
I know there's the monthly predictions threads, but has gaf ever tried doing more long term predictions? I feel like there's so much up in the air at the moment that it would be fun to try guessing next November's NPDs. How do ps4 and xbo match up without supply constraints (and maybe a kinectless sku)? Will a price drop and mario kart have breathed some life into Wii U? 3DS, up or down this time next year?
I think he's predicting that they'll both be made into a nice soup in the end.
Mmmh.
The people you've asked must be blind then, the branding is evident on store shelves and on the boxes. The Wii U is a known quantity and the Wii audience just doesn't care about it.
Y'know what might have helped with that?
If Nintendo hadn't dropped the Wii like a hot potato. If that console had an active userbase still going out and purchasing games, they couldn't have avoided seeing the Wii U games on the next shelf.
That said, I don't believe people are as clueless as you suggest. They have marketed the system. It is in shops, on shelves. People know it's out there.
Everybody I've asked knows it's out. Where does that leave us?
Edit: Remember this article?
Financial Post said:
Huh.
COD is down at least 1M sales, and last year had Assassin's Creed 3 and Halo 4 launching. Between them, those two games did 6M units. I'm not that surprised that this November is down, since launch titles are restrained by install base, and AssCreed/Battlefield launched in October.