Smooth Operator
Member
Yes, i understand why the Americans are so stressed about that, but it's not the same situation in France at all. No way the Front National will pass.
Les Republicains, tho'...
(We're fucked no matter what)
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2016 suddenly sucks a bit less as Sarkozy gets trounced in French primary
- Thread starter Funky Papa
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Yes, i understand why the Americans are so stressed about that, but it's not the same situation in France at all. No way the Front National will pass.
Les Republicains, tho'...
(We're fucked no matter what)
PotionBleue
Member
Yeah I think the biggest news is that this is again a massive poll failure. Result: 44 % vs. 30 % in the best forecasts, we're not talking about margins of error here, it's a complete fiasco.
Messofanego
Banned
"The divisive former president Sarkozy suffered a humiliating defeat, knocked out of the race after he ran a hard-right campaign on French national identity, targeting Muslims and minorities.
Fillon, a socially conservative, free-market reformer who admires Margaret Thatcher and voted against same-sex marriage, came close to winning the nomination straight out, with around 43% of the poll."
Fillon, a socially conservative, free-market reformer who admires Margaret Thatcher and voted against same-sex marriage, came close to winning the nomination straight out, with around 43% of the poll."
Socially conservative doesn't mean the same thing in France and in the US, I would be very very surprised if he tried anything against same-sex marriage, that would kill any hope he'd have of doing anything on the economic side right there and then.
The more I think about these results the more I feel that they are good for Macron. The left knows that Hollande has no chance now and will be desperate to push him out, Valls doesn't look like he will get anywhere, and when Juppé loses all the center-right voters will be looking for a new home. He's still a very long shot but there is some kind of a path for him now.
Stiflers Mom
Banned
What does his height have to do with his past political behaviour?
Fair point. Sarkozy was definitely the weakest candidate and his defeat here is definitely a good thing. I just kinda wish that Juppé was coming out the victor here. He's the best of a bad bunch.
I doubt it. I think whoever wins UMP's primaries is a lock for president tbh.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Hollande should be expurged for ruining the PS's credibility and the absurd damage he has inflicted to the left. He's France's Zapatero, minus the humane aspect of him.
Wouldn't be so sure. It's the first time a centrist has a shot since Giscard, with a left in shambles and a solid right candidate, and a lot of people seem to like him.
Nope. That's the good thing about voting in two rounds. First round is about voting for the most preferred option. Second round is voting for the less worse option if your most preferred option didn't pass into the second round. The biggest the score Le Pen gets in the first round, the biggest the mobilisation of the voters of the other sides in the second round.
Sarcozy was the biggest issue there, because his popularity was the lowest and his rethoric was very close to Marnie's, so he had the lowest potential to mobilise the "losers" from the first round.
Orniletter
Banned
I'd be fine with literally everyone who keeps France in the EU.
Fuck Le Pen.
Fuck Le Pen.
I know it's probably a 'lesser evil' kind of thing, but I can't believe it's (probably) going to be between Fillion and Juppe... These were already bad choices when I was a young adult still living in France... 20 years or so ago.
I mean, Juppe seems like the likely winner, and he was made uneligible for 5 years for Fraud a few years back, no?
I mean, Juppe seems like the likely winner, and he was made uneligible for 5 years for Fraud a few years back, no?
GhostTrick
Banned
To be fair, Fillon had this horrible line, talking about colonisation of Africa or Asia, claiming that France isn't guilty for sharing its culture to the people of these continents...
Nah, Juppé will be out. Fillon scored 44%, Juppé scored 28%. And Sarkzoy, 20%, called to vote for Fillon. Even if he didn't, they share the same votebase. Fillon has far more chances to get the 6,1 remaining percents than Juppé to get the 22,1 remaining percents...
He basically ruined the left for many years, maybe decades. For the people, the left means the left. Whenever it is PS, Les Verts, Front de Gauche or whatever. It's the same. The left was in power and they fucked up. That's what people will remember. Not only that, Hollande is a terrible politician, which the recently released book "Ce qu'un président ne devrait pas dire" proves. I can't even imagine any scenario where he isn't out in the first turn.
Sorry, Fillon isn't racist. He's a conservative, he's hunting on the catholic vote and had some stupid words on colonisation. But the guy never had an history with racists speech or behaviours.
Nah, Juppé will be out. Fillon scored 44%, Juppé scored 28%. And Sarkzoy, 20%, called to vote for Fillon. Even if he didn't, they share the same votebase. Fillon has far more chances to get the 6,1 remaining percents than Juppé to get the 22,1 remaining percents...
He basically ruined the left for many years, maybe decades. For the people, the left means the left. Whenever it is PS, Les Verts, Front de Gauche or whatever. It's the same. The left was in power and they fucked up. That's what people will remember. Not only that, Hollande is a terrible politician, which the recently released book "Ce qu'un président ne devrait pas dire" proves. I can't even imagine any scenario where he isn't out in the first turn.
Sorry, Fillon isn't racist. He's a conservative, he's hunting on the catholic vote and had some stupid words on colonisation. But the guy never had an history with racists speech or behaviours.
BladeoftheImmortal
Member
Why is hollande worse than these right wingers?
DarthMasta
Member
What do you expect? That a possible French president says on the record that he thinks the American president is anything other than a perfectly reasonable president? At best there will be "disagreements on policy", etc, at least for now...
Good luck preserving any progress if you get out of EU.
GhostTrick
Banned
Macron has really few chances. He's gonna end up in the 5% range.
Also OP, I'm surprised you didn't mention the wonderful score of Copé, which is 0.3% :")
I think he'll do a decent first round score, he'll probably get some of the more moderate right wing voters who won't be particularly thrilled at the idea of a president Fillon (too conservative, religious), and considering the state of the left he'll probably be the first choice there as well. But I don't think he'll go to a second round. I'd love to be wrong though !
Juppé said he's very worried about Trump lies, for a start.
Hollande needs to take the hint and not run otherwise he'll be responsible for Le Pen winning. And good to see Sarkozy out. Last few days Fillon really skyrocketed up the polls and haven't really read much about him. I know he wants to abolish the 35 hour work week, modify public pensions, etc.
bruh
GhostTrick
Banned
I guess not enough to make her not go into the second round.
Clinging to the futile hope that Le Pen might not even reach the second round?
If only he managed that.
GhostTrick
Banned
Does it matter though ? In the end, she won't be elected. At least, it'll show a good point: While she have 25% to 30% of voters, she has 70 to 75% of people voting AGAINST her.
Of course it matters. Not for Le Pen, for the left and centre.
GhostTrick
Banned
The left is dead for many years. You can thank Hollande for that. As for the centre, they agreed that their candidate will be the one of the Les Républicains's primaires.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
People always say the left will vote against the FN but FN is more to the left so I wouldn't be surprised if many did vote for them this time. An upset is unlikely but I wouldn't take the left's vote for granted.
I'd love to be as sure as seemingly everyone else that le pen won't make it. I think she's looking way more likely to become president right now than Trump did only a few months before the elections. Same remark goes for brexit. She still does have time to fuck it up, thankfully. Hoping for the best.
But yeah, fuck sarkozy.
Edit:
Apparently, polling institutes had a hard time figuring out what would constitute the voting population, as it was opened to pretty much whoever. They weren't sure how many left wing people to include in their surveys. In any case, they fucked up bit time.
But yeah, fuck sarkozy.
Edit:
Polls happened.
Apparently, polling institutes had a hard time figuring out what would constitute the voting population, as it was opened to pretty much whoever. They weren't sure how many left wing people to include in their surveys. In any case, they fucked up bit time.
Fillon is not really pro UE. He's a nostalgic of the EEC, He likes the idea of economic union but don't really want more integration.
If he wins the primary, it'll be interesting to see if he can take back some of the catholic vote from Le Pen.
He's a better opponent for whoever will be the candiate for the PS since it's a classical right candidate. But the french left is such a wreck now, that I don't think they'll be able to do anything.
If he wins the primary, it'll be interesting to see if he can take back some of the catholic vote from Le Pen.
He's a better opponent for whoever will be the candiate for the PS since it's a classical right candidate. But the french left is such a wreck now, that I don't think they'll be able to do anything.
Yeah, it's a wreck and they're gonna have a shit ton of candidates too, splitting the (already small) voting base. I think I've seen polls showing no more than 9% votes to the socialist in the first round. I mean, polls are close to worthless these days but that's still impressive.
The biggest difference is that there are two rounds. Imagine a second round for these US elections.
Also France doesn't have an electorate college. Trump actually lost the popular vote by more than 1.5 million votes.
Voters would have two viable options, instead of just one.
The point is that there would be another decent candidate to chose from besides Fillon.
During the last month he got repeatedly attacked by Sarkozy for his supposed ties with François Bayrou (who called to vote for Hollande at the last elections) which pushed him to the left in the mind of the average right wing voter. It worked but it benefited Fillon not Sarkozy.
Fillon has also managed to mobilize the catholic vote which is still strong in France. He posed himself as a "cleaner" alternative to Sarkozy while maintaining the same poltical hard line.
I don't get your point, Fn is far-right, there's so much disagreement with the left ideologies that I don't see any leftist voting for them even in a "fuck the establishment" optic.
Actually it's not that clear no :\
She may have 25-30% (which is enormous already) BUT we don't know how will react the fillon/sarkozy voters (who are it seems a lot) in case of Socialist/Fn second turn. They won't specially prefer a socialist president to a fn one i can tell you.
We pretty much know that socialists wont make it to round 2. Then again polls nowadays arent very accurate. But still, after hollande I just cant see it.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Fillon is the closest thing France has to a Mike Pence. I'm glad Sarkozy is out but France is still fucked next year :/
He's basically Chirac Jr. and people are tired of the old establishment.
He's basically Chirac Jr. and people are tired of the old establishment.
Herb Alpert
Banned
Great.
But fillon's plan is scary as shit.
The choice between him and le Pen would be painful.
But fillon's plan is scary as shit.
The choice between him and le Pen would be painful.
FN have, like Brexit and Trump, honed in on traditional working class left wing issues - anti-globalism, anti free trade, pro protectionism etc. I don't think it will work in France in the same way it has in the U.K. / USA, for a whole variety of reasons, but FN isn't a traditional far right party in the same vein as it used to be.
Yes and the sadest part is that it's the only way we can be sure Lepen is not elected lol.
But really in case it's the contrary, nobody knows. i'm pretty certain a bog part of sarkozy or fillon voters are not that reluctant to vote fn
DiipuSurotu
Banned
There's still a lot of time until the election. Macron may still happen.
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