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[AxeMan]

I came across this article just now, it's long but a good read. The author explains why he thinks 2017 is going to be a rough ride. Some quotes below.
URL might be NSFW for language

Article

TLDR: Author argues that there is going to be a big crash in 2017 possibly leading to conflicts

The American people have been punked by their own government and their central bank, the Federal Reserve, for years and the jig is now up. In 2017 both will lose their authority and legitimacy, a very grave matter for the survival of this republic.

The USA ran out of growth capacity around the turn of the millennium because we ran out of affordable energy to run our techno-industrial economy.....By affordable energy I mean energy with a greater-than 30-to-one energy-return-on-investment, which is the ratio you need for the kind of life we lead. That’s what the now-ridiculed Peak Oil story was really about: not running out of oil, but not getting enough bang for our bucks pulling the remaining oil out of the earth to maintain our standard of living

It is still largely unrecognized that America recovered from the financial disorder of the 1970s not because of the charms of “Reaganomics” but for the simple reason that the last giant finds of oil with greater than 30-to-one energy-return-on-investment came on line in the 1980s: Alaska’s North Slope, Britain and Norway’s North Sea fields, and Siberia. That allowed the USA and the West generally to extend the techno-industrial fiesta another twenty years.

Under the consecutive Grand Vizierships of Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, control fraud (using official authority to cover up misconduct) was perfected by banking executives, eventuating in the mortgage securities fiasco of 2008, which took down the housing market and the economy. (That housing market, by the way, was made up mainly of suburban houses, the sine qua non of the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world.)

the Fed is completely full of shit. It is terrified of the conditions it has set up and it has no idea what to do next. The “data” that it claims to be so dependent on is arrantly fake. The government’s official unemployment number at Christmas 2016 was 4.6 percent. It’s a compound lie........That 4.6 unemployment figure is the main pillar of the Fed’s “data.” They interpret it as meaning the economy is roaring and has their full confidence. They‘re lying about that, of course. They have been touting “the recovery” (from the crash of 2008) continually and heralding a program of “normalizing” interest rates upward for two years

A sharply rising interest rate on the ten-year Treasury bond will thunder through the system. A lot of other basic interest costs are keyed to the ten-year bond rate, especially home mortgages, apartment rentals (landlords hold mortgages), and car payments. When the ten year bond rate goes up, so do mortgage payments. When mortgage rates go up, house prices go down, because fewer people are in a position to buy a house at higher mortgage rates, and rents go up (more competition among people who can’t buy a house). Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), in force for ten years, has driven house prices back to stratospheric levels. ......Housing starts were already down by a stunning 19 percent in November. Automobile sales are rolling over. Manufacturing and retail sales numbers are down at year end. What’s up: stocks, stocks, stocks......You can wait until January 3, 2017 to sell, and then not have to pay tax on your profits until April of 2018. Will investors start dumping in the first trading days of 2017? I think so.

By the end of Trump’s first year in office, there will another, greater, dump in the stock markets after the initial 20 percent drop in the first quarter. America will be great again, all right: we’ll be entering a depression greater than the Great Depression of the 1930s.

ban cash from the scene in order to herd all citizens into a digital banking system that will allow the authorities to track all financial transactions and suck every possible cent of taxes into national coffers. It would also be an opportunity for the bank-and government cabal to impose negative interest rates (NIRP) on bank accounts so that money herded into the digital system could be surreptitiously “taxed” by charging account holders just for being there (against their will).

That may be the moment when President Trump and his militarily-weighted cabinet appointees opt for martial law. What a goddamned mess that will be. There is no civilized country on earth with as many small arms per capita than the USA

 

[Sapiens]

It's very difficult to predict the future. This reads like wishful thinking.

 

[Achire]

This kind of reads like it was written by Unabomber.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

This reads like a "what has to happen" scenario for a 7-9 NFL team to make the playoffs.

 

[OpinionatedCyborg]

It's very difficult to predict the future. This reads like wishful thinking.

Interesting because one of the author's books is titled:
Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking, Technology, and the Fate of the Nation

The nationally best-selling author of "The Long Emergency" expands on his alarming argument that our oil-addicted, technology-dependent society is on the brink of collapse—that the long emergency has already begun. Published by the Atlantic Monthly Press.

 

[Xando]

While this article reads more like wishful thinking i definitely think there will be a big crash(bigger than 08) within the next 5 years.

Reduced growth, financial markets going crazy without any real oversight aswell as central banks already pumping money into the markets. 2008 will look like a party.

And all because we didn't really learn from 08

 

[Servbot24]

I predict people will get nostalgic for 2016.

 

[Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku!]

This reads like a "what has to happen" scenario for a 7-9 NFL team to make the playoffs.

To me it reads like one of those commercials that they play on conservative radio stations that the world is ending and you have to go to their website to see more except with trump instead of Obama.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I've seen this guy before (and feel as if I've read this exact article for years now). Just another one of those dudes who makes a career preaching the imminent collapse of society year in and year out. This guy, James Kunstler, has been at it since the 90's and his specialty is peak oil. While there are shades of truth to what people like this say, they're horribly skewed, lack proper sources other than "their gut" and always start of end their blogs, radiocasts, etc. with a "Buy my book/newsletter!" I see this dude at least keeps up with the times and has a Patreon! They promise information in exchange for money that according to them is about to be worthless.

 

[GregLombardi]

I believe the author is right on stocks but horrifically wrong on timing. There are plenty of years before the effects of Trumpism take hold in that sector.

The collapse of the economy into depression era horror is also likely further off than that, but also quite possible, especially given the lack of knowledge that exists in the mind of the captain of the world economy's ship.

 

[Goro Majima]

I've seen this guy before (and feel as if I've read this exact article for years now). Just another one of those dudes who makes a career preaching the imminent collapse of society year in and year out. This guy, James Kunstler, has been at it since the 90's and his specialty is peak oil. While there are shades of truth to what people like this say, they're horribly skewed, lack proper sources other than "their gut" and always start of end their blogs, radiocasts, etc. with a "Buy my book/newsletter!" I see this dude at least keeps up with the times and has a Patreon! They promise information in exchange for money that according to them is about to be worthless.

Yeah I read most of it and I mostly walked away with this image in my mind:

The paragraphs under the "Oil Quandry" heading were the most suspect.

 

[Shig]

This reads like a "what has to happen" scenario for a 7-9 NFL team to make the playoffs.

So did predictions of a Trump presidency and a Brexit win, once upon a time.

 

[guek]

No way man, Switch is going to deliver and start the year off right!

In all seriousness, I'm hoping for the best, expecting the worst.

 

[tearsintherain]

Did you know economists have predicted 375 of the past 2 recessions?

 

[More Fun To Compute]

If you think the stats the media gives on employment, inflation and so on are accurate then did you also think the trump polls were accurate.

 

[adj_noun]

There’s no sign that the Democrat / Progs have recognized that their poisonous identity politics played a significant role in their electoral defeat. They will not abandon that endeavor in 2017. They will double-down on it. And as that happens, the Democratic Party will go the way of the Whigs in 1856 — with a whimper, not a bang.

Uh huh.

 

[ezrarh]

Regardless of whether his predictions come true in 2017, there's no doubt that our current society is too dependent on high energy consumption to exist (particularly the US). Hopefully we transition safely away from it before it bites us in the ass hard.

 

[Kayhan]

If the prediction comes true the guy will claim to be a genius.

If the prediction doesn't come true nobody will remember he made a prediction so he can try for fame again next year.

 

[~Kinggi~]

If the prediction comes true the guy will claim to be a genius.

If the prediction doesn't come true nobody will remember he made a prediction so he can try for fame again next year.

if his predictions come true nobody will give a shit. Too busy ramping up for the revolution.

 

[Rhomega Beta]

I remember when there was supposed to be a crash in 2015.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I remember when there was supposed to be a crash in 2015.

And 2014. And 2013. And 2012. And 2011. And 2010...

 

[Ogodei]

This is all malarkey. The fed hikes interest rates when they have to: either because they need to cool off the economy from running too hot, or because people won't pay for government debt at the current rate. Now, the second one happens in a crisis situation: stable public assets have been a hard buy in the last 9 years, if people really have better options than Federal Debt, then the world has a bigger problem to worry about than the rate of interest.

Not to mention that this is all peak-oil fearmongering.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Not to mention that this is all peak-oil fearmongering.

That's what this guy, James Kunstler, has been raving about for over 20 years now.

 

[Delusibeta]

Yeah, this argument is flimsy as heck. The best thing is that we'll have a very good idea about how much of this is bullshit by the end of the week, when the stock dump he predicts doesn't happen.

 

[Muppet of a Man]

Regardless of whether his predictions come true in 2017, there's no doubt that our current society is too dependent on high energy consumption to exist (particularly the US). Hopefully we transition safely away from it before it bites us in the ass hard.

People who understand the physics behind what it takes to keep our modern society's standard of living afloat have been shitting their pants for some time now. They understand that if we don't move away from fossil fuel we will both obliterate our ecosystem, as well doom the vast majority of our progeny to a feudal lifestyle. Hell, those struggling to gain/maintain their middle class economic status are already feeling like feudal serfs, starting their lives indentured with a shit ton of student debt and less opportunity then their parents had.

 

[chromatic9]

I remember when there was supposed to be a crash in 2015.

2016 crash was 100% going to happen as well

One of many

"
Grantham just made another bold call. He thinks the US market is “ripe for a major decline” in 2016. He says it could spark the worst crisis since the Great Depression. The Financial Times explains:

We may be due one if you look at the early 90s onwards, every 8 or so years

Another

Here Comes the Biggest Stock Market Crash in a Generation Feb 2016

Albert Edwards, strategist at Société Générale. He's not had much nice to say about the global economy in years, and recent events have only hardened his convictions that the world is headed for disaster, and will take the prices of equities down with it. How much? Edwards predicts the U.S. stock market could plunge as much as 75%. That would be worse than during the financial crisis, in which stocks from their peak to trough dropped a brutal 62%.

 

[grumble]

I do think that calling out the suburbs for how ridiculously stupid they are from a resource allocation perspective is interesting. The rest? Pretty mixed.

 

[gwarm01]

Am I the only one that wants another housing crash so I can finally buy a sweet downtown apartment in a city I actually want to live in? I'm sure there are downsides I don't see, but man alive.. I was in school during the last crash and found these great houses/condos for reasonable prices that now 3-5x what they cost in 2010. Now I actually have a career but can't bring myself to pay these prices.

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

I do think that calling out the suburbs for how ridiculously stupid they are from a resource allocation perspective is interesting. The rest? Pretty mixed.

This has been the same observation from pretty much every futurist and analyst, so unless he has some particular insight different from the rest of the pack it's not really praiseworthy.

 

[elrechazado]

This kind of reads like it was written by Unabomber.

The Unabomber was at least highly educated and articulate.

 

[echoshifting]

He predicts a dumping of stocks starting this week?

I am suspicious of his motives

 

[The Albatross]

Listen gaf, just because you read clickbait shit on the internet doesn't mean you have to post it on your favorite internet forum. If an article gets filed under the "clusterfuck-nation" category on your favorite alt-blog, it's probably crap.

Am I the only one that wants another housing crash so I can finally buy a sweet downtown apartment in a city I actually want to live in? I'm sure there are downsides I don't see, but man alive.. I was in school during the last crash and found these great houses/condos for reasonable prices that now 3-5x what they cost in 2010. Now I actually have a career but can't bring myself to pay these prices.

The downside of the last housing crash among people like you (recent grads) was 30% unemployment, wage stagnation, defaulting on student loans, and being bankrupted by medical bills.

Be careful what you wish for.

 

[magenta]

This reads like a zero hedge post.

 

[UFO]

If one more fucking person says "reads like"...

 

[Brakke]

Is this the new "IT'S TIME FOR SOME GAME THEORY"?

 

[kirblar]

This kind of reads like it was written by Unabomber.

The instant someone starts blaming "the fed" for everything, its generally a good sign that it's crazy person talk.

 

[ChouGoku]

I think this year will be crazy because I think this year will be the year where we really start getting into the 4th industrial revolution. Self driving cars will most likely be pushed in more states, on top of increasing automation in other areas. I think the idea of machines taking jobs will be more prevalent in the public conversation but due to it not taking mid and high skill jobs for another 2-4 years a big response will be lol get better skills. If automation actually gets implemented like at Foxconn then I'm sure there will be unrest