Analyst: If Xbox One Tanks, It Could Be Microsoft's Last Console
- Thread starter alterego
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robertsan21
Member
Obviously competition is good but yeah PS2 era was brilliant.
but then someone else will fill in.
Manmademan
Member
yeah, whenever an analyst thread pops up I can't help but think about this graph:
it's obvious that any of the new systems tanks, it could do heavy damage to the its manufacturer. Sony isn't in a good situation at this moment, and Nintendo is having a hard time with Wii-U so, in the end if XB1 tanks, yes, of course, it could make MS think about dropping the ball in the videogames market, but I do not see it happening.
by the way, I cannot believe people here wishing for MS to quit console gaming, narrow minds..
you know, this graph has been around a while and gotten a bunch of laughs, but for an end of the generation projection it's actually surprisingly accurate.
ignore the specific dates- this generation went on longer than anyone anticipated.
It predicted the wii's explosive growth stalling out and collapsing, maxing out at about 100 million units,
it predicted the resurrection of the PS3, and the 105 million target is actually on point, if not a little lowball. it probably won't hit that until 2014/2015 though.
the only thing it gets REALLY wrong is the overall size of the market and the growth of the 360- and kinect accounts for a big chunk of the 360's growth. no one saw that coming.
Uno Venova
Banned
I agree. Some seem to get on edge when analysts even start a discussion on the possibility, but like you said no product is infallible.
MS said XBO is the last console you would ever need I recall. While MS can and easily stay in the console race for decades with the cash flow they have but I get the feeling MS doesn't want to invest in the console business and wants to go all digital with cloud tech, whereas Sony and Nintendo will bring out new consoles after the current ones. Hardware is in their DNA.
Twin Tails
Member
It'll do fine.
Codeblew
Member
You are easy to amuse.
On topic:
It would be bad if MS ditched XBOX but Sony and Nintendo could fill their shoes. What games does XBOX have that you cannot get elsewhere? Halo, Forza and ?. People would just pick up a PS4, WiiU or go PC only.
Competition is always good in any industry so it will be the consumer's loss to lose a major player.
you're the one acting like Microsoft matters. How long haveyou been gaming? 5 years?
Competitors leave the business, new competitors enter. It's been that way since gaming started.
oh no, whatever would we do without paywalls and companies paying for 1 month exclusive DLC. GAMING IS DOOMED!
Codeblew
Member
Are you saying PC gaming is the most dominant? Are there sales numbers to back this up?
LordBaztion
Member
I always trust in competition. If Sony will go ahead (and thwh will) the management at MS will be force to compete in levels their platform allows them, for example services and deals with publishers. I think, 2 or 3 years ahead, MS will be forced to set online policies proconsumer like Sony did to compwnsate the flaws of the PS3. However, to do so, you need people invested in the market, someone with experience outside MS because the curent management think their product and service justify the price and very unlikely to understand what is going on. i also don't think Larson and the new heads are going to make any changes in the xbox division, actually they could harm it in the gaming market with the one MS policy.
The best would be to give xbox a separate managment and hire people from outside (PC guys like Valve's) to make the switch to their always online vision (because at the end of next gen, always online will be the rule. The way to make it giving more value to digital goods through low prices for people to understand that physical media is expendable.
The best would be to give xbox a separate managment and hire people from outside (PC guys like Valve's) to make the switch to their always online vision (because at the end of next gen, always online will be the rule. The way to make it giving more value to digital goods through low prices for people to understand that physical media is expendable.
Manmademan
Member
Very true.
however, the bar to enter the traditional console business is extremely high these days. It's not 1993 or 1994 when Philips, Sony, Sega, Atari, and Panasonic were all able to launch consoles within a year or so of each other.
If Microsoft is out, next gen will likely be just Sony vs. PC vs. Smartphones/Tablets.
Who else could even make the attempt? Amazon? Apple? Nvidia? I can't see any of these working. And yes, I know amazon is making a "console" but I don't think it's a PS4 competitor.
fastford58
Member
So what is considered a flop?
Not selling at least as much as 360 or only selling as much as Wii-U?
It's a pretty wide spectrum. I don't think One is going to sell as much as the 360, but I don't think it will flop. I also believe gen 8 is going to be shorter than gen 7.
Not selling at least as much as 360 or only selling as much as Wii-U?
It's a pretty wide spectrum. I don't think One is going to sell as much as the 360, but I don't think it will flop. I also believe gen 8 is going to be shorter than gen 7.
BuggyDClown
Member
Given another 8 year cycle like the last one and mobile processors will be viable enough in power to make extremely compelling gaming experiences on a device the size and cost of an Apple TV.
Hell if apple made a games store today with their next A7 processor It would be able to run pretty good looking games already at 1080p. Nothing on next gen scale no, but give it 8 years.
Google, Apple and Amazon could all create something extremely competitive and at a low cost that could see yearly to bi yearly upgrades.
goldenpp72
Member
I thought this would be obvious, it would also likely be the case if PS4 tanked, neither of these companies are in as deep as Nintendo when it comes to this stuff in that they barely seem to make profit (if ever) in it.
weevles
Member
I don't think it will fail. MS won't let it. They have a core fan base, and they can drop the price by getting rid of the kinect among other things.
If we were talking in worst case scenario mode, you could say the same thing about any of the companies, really. Not much analysis needed there...
If we were talking in worst case scenario mode, you could say the same thing about any of the companies, really. Not much analysis needed there...
H_Prestige
Banned
The investors don't care how Xbox is doing compared to playstation and nintendo. They don't think they should be in this business in the first place. Looking at the lifetime xbox profits, hard to argue against them.
I don't have any numbers for them or for how Apple TV and Google TV are doing. However, there must be something to be said in the fact that Apple and Google have entered the television market and that Amazon is considering it. I suspect that the best selling media devices for the television at this point in time are video game consoles. At least 70 million per system for the seventh generation seems to indicate that.
Gaming would go on without Microsoft but at the same time we should acknowledge that Microsoft has pumped a lot of money into the gaming market. I am not sure if any of their replacements would do the same. I think if they want to go forward and they almost certainly will, they will have to adjust to the idea of the Xbox brand as a gaming console first and media device second. With the emergence of smartphones and smart tv I think Sony and Microsoft's dreams of controlling the living room are dead. That doesn't mean they can't still be a player, but they will not be the only player or even the biggest player any longer. The revolution has already happened and they were caught with their pants down.
BuggyDClown
Member
Apple TV was at 13million in May. Roughly half were from the last year, so they have been picking up steam since the redesign and resolution bump.
Imagine what would happen if they had a 32GB Apple TV for 149 or 199 and it could play all official controller supported iOS games when iOS 7 launches.
It could be a great experiment for them, one that could see sales continue to multiply.
didn't it survive with only Nintendo and Sega?
What makes microsoft so special?
Other than being a blight to the industry by introducing the most consumer damaging features ever seen on a gaming console?
They were the ones that introduced paid dlc on consoles, a feature that is now standard in the industry and one that many abuse.
They were the ones that introduced a paywall on online gaming, a feature that is now standard on console gaming.
I never asked for these things, but I sure have to swallow them now. Microsoft paved the way for these companies to released unfinished products on the market, overprice them, with the promise that a patch would fix them. Bethesda's games being the worst offenders here.
Quite frankly, I want xbox one to tank harder than the first xbox. Microsoft will be gone? GOOD.
We still have Nintendo, Sony and PC. And all three provide different experiences for different gamers.
Your comment "MS won't let it" is no longer a guarantee. With the investors publicly breathing down their neck about the Xbox division lack of profit things could very well end up changing if things go bad.
BuggyDClown
Member
By the way, if Apple did have gaming for controller supported games on Apple TV that 13 million number would be huge. The Xbox 360 sold 10million in that same amount of time.
goldenpp72
Member
You seem to know business very well, so much so that you think the Halo IP is worth only 1 billion dollars.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
This thread is the twilight zone of threads.
Unknown One
Member
I truly think the next generation is the last one or we'll be looking on console tablet hybrids that sends wireless signal to the TV and other devices. Of course it'll use controllers.
Nocturno999
Member
This thread keeps denying the existence of iOS and Android devices and the huge impact they have in this industry.
MS presence is becoming entirely redundant, Sony and Nintendo already have their hands full against mobile and PC gaming.
MS presence is becoming entirely redundant, Sony and Nintendo already have their hands full against mobile and PC gaming.
Pretty much
Glorified G
Member
Also, Halo was the first fps
Doctor Decimate
Member
I would say this could be true for Sony and Nintendo as well
It's massively inaccurate.
That chart predicts the PS3 to be 50% higher than where it is now.
If someone internally had to budgeted or planned for that, they would of been fired.
I find it funny when people take "analysts" words and think they mean anything. This guy has less credibility than Pachter, though Pachter is a man among children in the videogame analyst sector. I mean shit, look at the site Statham posted back on the 2nd page.
That said, this gen will not prosper like last gen. All 3 systems will sell but they won't reach where the current gen is currently. I think we'll have a rude awakening with a lot of bigger publishers struggling as this keep trying to push AAA budgeted games out.
That said, this gen will not prosper like last gen. All 3 systems will sell but they won't reach where the current gen is currently. I think we'll have a rude awakening with a lot of bigger publishers struggling as this keep trying to push AAA budgeted games out.
soulassssns
Banned
Doom and Gloom!
Not going to happen.
Not going to happen.
Syph Medwes
Member
People here are missing the point of it doesn't matter at all if Sony wins. What matters at the end of the day is whether or not Microsoft is making or losing money on the Xbox One, not if they've sold as many units as the PS4.
OldAsUrSock
Banned
They will start with a 128GB then increase the GB slowly each year. People will come in droves just for a few more GB of space.
If that includes MS' presence via PC, then yes, the gaming world will be shaken. If only Xbox One, er... Not so much.
SwiftDeath
Member
Bah I hated the original X1's policies but it's not going to fail
I see a second place in its future but it will remain a healthy platform
Might even be more profitable than PS4 on a per unit basis
We'll see an Xbox One squared or whatever terrible name they give it
What acronym is best for Xbox One now? I liked X1 but apparently it's comcasts new box?
I see a second place in its future but it will remain a healthy platform
Might even be more profitable than PS4 on a per unit basis
We'll see an Xbox One squared or whatever terrible name they give it
What acronym is best for Xbox One now? I liked X1 but apparently it's comcasts new box?
Dlacy13g
Member
Is this shocking to anyone given all the turmoil/ change they have had?
Depends of the definition of fail. It won't outright fail. Even if it does not sell well, Microsoft will just keep throwing money at it until it does. That however does not mean it will be profitable. In most terms, no profit = a failure as a product.
ColdBlooder
Banned
Nintendos last console? You know they have a ton of cash and are making profits again thanks to the 3DS?
When Wii U becomes profitable... They will make another mountain of cash.