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[andthebeatgoeson]

since when does the winning manufacturer try to put the next-console out as first...

Sony? Last gen? Did you forget? Oh wait, you think Dreamcast was in that generation? It's all just a dream, that Sega casted. *boggle*

 

[Opiate]

sony and MS have their market. it's not as big as wii's but it's significant and it's growing. believe me wii people don't give 2 shits about MS or sony.

The Wii's audience isn't just bigger, it's also significantly more profitable. Profoundly so, and it's the combination of the two factors (bigger and more profitable audience) that's really the killer.

Long term, you can't have one company making more than the rest of the industry combined and tripled, as has been the case for two years running now. While Sony and Microsoft's profits are increasing (or their losses are decreasing), so are Nintendo's. It simply isn't sustainable, okate. Either Sony and Microsoft will adopt Nintendo's strategies, or the entire industry will warp around Nintendo.

The profit disparity is too great. It.is.not.sustainable.

 

[Raist]

Nah, they'll just release some memory expansion pack or something

 

[ElFly]

Even if they "win" this generation, Nintendo won't want to start last in the console race. It cost them too much in the N64/Gamecube era. They apparently learned their lesson, at least judging from Iwata's commentaries around the Wii launch.

Microsoft will be the first one to bail. Their console is a year older, the Wii already passed it, and we are already hearing about Halo 4.

2011 for MS, 2012 for Nintendo. Sony may jump to the next gen in either year, depending on the performance of the PS3. Right now it looks like they have incentives to start anew as soon as possible, but who knows, maybe they will even catch up the 360.

 

[PantherLotus]

^didn't they just launch last this generation? why do you ignore this to cite that?

======

Can we call it the Wiii?

Also, it's already in development and will be something closer to a 3rd pillar like the DS was. Somewhere in between a handheld and a console.

 

[Raist]

^didn't they just launch last this generation? why do you ignore this to cite that?

Well, if you exclude Europe, yeah they were last. And vice versa.

 

[Dirtbag]

Even if they "win" this generation, Nintendo won't want to start last in the console race. It cost them too much in the N64/Gamecube era. They apparently learned their lesson, at least judging from Iwata's commentaries around the Wii launch.

Microsoft will be the first one to bail. Their console is a year older, the Wii already passed it, and we are already hearing about Halo 4.

2011 for MS, 2012 for Nintendo. Sony may jump to the next gen in either year, depending on the performance of the PS3. Right now it looks like they have incentives to start anew as soon as possible, but who knows, maybe they will even catch up the 360.

I think MS launching first helped them tremendously in this current gen. I expect Sony and 360 fight it out to be first, and wouldn't be surprised in seeing them release in the same year to negate the other's first to market launch.

 

[jman2050]

Not exactly pertinent to the topic at hand, and maybe this has been suggested before, but does anybody think that Nintendo has been waiting for flash-based storage to become cheap enough that they could include more of that built-in instead of an HDD? Thus all the waiting and question deflecting?

More on-topic, I think the best we'll see in the Wii's lifetime is improved peripheral and software functions. Stuff like MotionPlus, the inclusion of Wiiware, etc. An actual hardware revision won't happen unless is minor in nature, ala the various GBA and DS revisions. There's really no reason for them to release a Wii2 or anything like that in the forseeable future.

 

[Stoney Mason]

I think MS launching first helped them tremendously in this current gen. I expect Sony and 360 fight it out to be first, and wouldn't be surprised in seeing them release in the same year to negate the other's first to market launch.

I don't think so....


But there is no doubt that 360 launching first helped them this gen to maintain presence and credibility.

 

[ElFly]

^didn't they just launch last this generation? why do you ignore this to cite that?

You could argue that the PS3 launched last. Globally.

Anyway, a couple of months between launch doesn't matter. For all intents, PS3 and Wii were released at the same time.

edit:*checks* a week later = the same time

 

[Darth Tigris]

Why? Wii is still selling like hotcakes with no signs of a REAL slowdown. Anyone remember the NES?

 

[ElFly]

360 launching first + lol $599 = Microsoft getting a huge advantage this gen

 

[Neo C.]

Can we call it the Wiii?

Also, it's already in development and will be something closer to a 3rd pillar like the DS was. Somewhere in between a handheld and a console.

A new Virtual Boy?

 

[devildog820]

As soon as the Wii slows down, they will introduce a new one (maybe 4 GCNs duct-taped together) and claim that people still aren't ready for HD.

I wish they would just come out with some software that would make me want to fire up my Wii again for things other than Wii Fit. Or even some VC games worth buying.

 

[Stoney Mason]

Anyone remember the NES?

There is a slight argument that hanging on too long puts you in a slight hole for next gen which is what started to happen to Nintendo in prior console generations. There is no doubt that Nintendo is a conservative company that will attempt to (rightfully) milk the Wii. I do think they may want to pull off just a little earlier than they are normally inclined to but they are the ones paid to make those decisions obviously.

 

[ElFly]

Ignore PantherLotus' crazy theory about Wiimotes that become DSs.

It's crazy.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

It doesn't matter when Nintendo launches. What matters is WHAT Nintendo launches.

If Nintendo was bankrupt of ideas outside of what we've already seen from the Wii, then their impetus would be to introduce something new first, which still wouldn't guarantee them first place considering what Sony and Microsoft will do in response to the industry change that the Wii has brought.

What Nintendo has to do (and what they've alluded to many times) is that they have to compete with themselves to create newer and fresher ideas all the time in order to further themselves and the industry. This alone does not point to Wii 2 having just better graphics or more storage. More importantly, a Nintendo that competes with themselves doesn't HAVE to launch before Sony or MS do anything as their biggest competition is with the gamers that have grown tired of Wii. When this happens is when you will see a new Nintendo console, not when PS4 or XBOX 720 release.

 

[Dirtbag]

Ignore PantherLotus' crazy theory about Wiimotes that become DSs.

It's crazy.

:lol I saw his mock up in some other thread. Too funny.

 

[thuway]

Nintendo isn't stupid. The last thing they want to do is sabotage the Wii.

 

[speculawyer]

So . . . Nintendo still hasn't caught up with the demand of the current console and this guy is talking about them replacing it with a new console?

How do these guys get jobs? The stupidity is mind-boggling.

 

[X26]

There is no reason for Nintendo to make another console anytime soon, "hardware limitations" don't mean anything to them when their system and shitty games are rolling in the dough

 

[thefro]

This is a pretty silly line of thinking, unless Wii sales magically fall off a cliff. Nintendo hasn't even cut the price of the Wii yet.

The only threat to the Wii is a new PS/Xbox system with noticeably better motion controls than the WiiMotion Plus at a sane pricepoint.

Until then Nintendo will keep milking the Wii.

 

[freddy]

And here I thought I was good at this.

I gotta ask this. What's so clever about acting like a moron/troll when the board is full of them and then laughing because someone took you face value as one of those many moron/trolls that populate the board?

It's kinda like dressing yourself up as a clown and joining a circus only to say, "Ha, I fooled you I'm not really a clown"...what's the fucking point?


Maybe I've missed some subtle intellectual skulduggery here. I certainly hope so.

 

[poppabk]

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian said in an investor note on Monday, "At this point, we believe the consensus opinion among industry professionals is that the next significant hardware refresh is unlikely to occur before 2011, and more likely in 2012."

But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then. "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."

They are really covering their asses on this one. Both Sony and MS have released revisions of their consoles with increased storage - didn't count as a new generation. Wii with 2GB flash memory = Wii2 for some reason though. DVD playback would be purely a software upgrade - as the homebrew people know. Sony, MS and Nintendo all upgrade their software and add features but a DVD playback download = Wii2 and the analysts are right. Only a faster processor would fit as a truly different generation of hardware.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

Nintendo is probably going to try to get the entire market, though. It may not seem like it now, but looking at the DS it's reasonable to assume that they'll try again.

I haven't seen any kind sustained attempt this generation to go after the core-gamers...and E3 just reinforces that.

 

[ElFly]

They are really covering their asses on this one. Both Sony and MS have released revisions of their consoles with increased storage - didn't count as a new generation. Wii with 2GB flash memory = Wii2 for some reason though. DVD playback would be purely a software upgrade - as the homebrew people know. Sony, MS and Nintendo all upgrade their software and add features but a DVD playback download = Wii2 and the analysts are right. Only a faster processor would fit as a truly different generation of hardware.

DVD playback doesn't matter at this point.

 

[jrricky]

If they're going to add DVD playback, they should add Blu-ray playback. And 720p/1080i/1080p. And for the love of god, surround sound. Also, they could add "next gen rumble", pointer technology that isn't horribly inconsistent (my cursor is almost constantly skipping/jumping around the screen, no matter how much light is in the room) and improved motion sensing that does more than sense "waggle" to initiate basic, canned animations, and has tilt functions.

motion +?

Spoiler

is he banned for real?

 

[milanbaros]

I don't understand a lot of the comments here. Everything this gen has pointed to graphics capabilities being a non factor and yet you think they need to increase the power.

 

[Chittagong]

The loser of the previous round, or the newcomer, initiates the upgrade cycle. Always been that way. And Nintendo is neither.

They'll just continue printing money as long as there is any juice left.

Iwata: (laughs)
Miyamoto: (laughs)

 

[Chittagong]

Also, Nintendo hasn't even released Wii in different colors.

Or even Wiimotes in different colors.

Fucking hell, they're doing so well that they started by releasing coloured straps:

 

[Threi]

but then again Nintendo does always seem to like to catch people off guard...



Iwata: "Sense? Who needs that? We like to keep you fuckers on your toes."

Iwata: (laughs)

 

[poppabk]

DVD playback doesn't matter at this point.

Right, which singles it out as an odd thing to include in your list of "next-next gen" features.

 

[Kilrogg]

First, I'd like to establish something: Why are we still quoting analysts?
1) Because the majority of us thinks they're relevant?
or
2) For the lulz?

I'm just curious.

It doesn't matter when Nintendo launches. What matters is WHAT Nintendo launches.

If Nintendo was bankrupt of ideas outside of what we've already seen from the Wii, then their impetus would be to introduce something new first, which still wouldn't guarantee them first place considering what Sony and Microsoft will do in response to the industry change that the Wii has brought.

What Nintendo has to do (and what they've alluded to many times) is that they have to compete with themselves to create newer and fresher ideas all the time in order to further themselves and the industry. This alone does not point to Wii 2 having just better graphics or more storage. More importantly, a Nintendo that competes with themselves doesn't HAVE to launch before Sony or MS do anything as their biggest competition is with the gamers that have grown tired of Wii. When this happens is when you will see a new Nintendo console, not when PS4 or XBOX 720 release.

This is a very sensible post.

In all likelihood, Nintendo won't be the first to release their system, because what they'll do will be different than the competitors' possible Xii and Pii p). I won't be a mere incremental upgrade to the Wii. When your product is different than the competitors', you don't have to be first to launch, because, in a sense, you will still be seen as the first-mover. That's because you and your competitors don't compete on the same values.

Whatever the competition comes up with, it will be seen as a follow-up, a sustaining technology to current-gen, while your product will be new and create its own category and its own rules from the get-go, in which it is, indeed, the first-mover.

When all three next-gen consoles will come, the most likely situation will be that Microsoft and Sony will still be proponents of the old values (horsepower-driven hardware + maybe a bit of motion-control/accessible software at best... But even that will not be new), while Nintendo will bring something new.

 

[charlequin]

The NES was a new generation, unless you consider it to be a part of the Atari or Amiga generation. Otherwise I agree.

My instinct is to call the NES a special case. The concept of aligned "generations" hadn't really taken hold yet; the Famicom launched in a similar timeframe to competitive computers like the MSX in Japan and into an empty market in the US.

Not that this sounds bad, but do you have a thought on why PS2 launched when it did? Dreamcast was solidly a non-threat, and GCN and Xbox were quite a lot later to the party.

Well, I think the generational cycle pushes you to launch within a window of your competition whether or not they're a tremendous threat; the Dreamcast, which never was a meaningful competitor to the PS2, could've proven a fairly significant challenger to the unsucceeded PS1 -- much as Genesis was to the NES when Nintendo was tardy with the SNES.

Also, the GameCube was pushed back a year from Nintendo's original launch estimates and the Xbox was a late, sudden entrant into the market. I imagine that when the 2000 launch was decided upon, Sony was expecting to launch at the tail end of a field composed of Sega and Nintendo.

I think many people are unable or unwilling to recognize that the video game industry is moving away from technology as a main driver of sales.

Rather (in my opinion) the largely illusory role of technology as a main driver of sales in the gaming industry has begun to dispel, now that the curve of "technology advancement vs. increased fun" has taken a somewhat different turn.

 

[jaundicejuice]

I could see a Wii-SP/Lite/etc. of some sort eventually getting released if/when the hype and demand for the Wii starts to taper off (lulz), what the minute improvements would be are beyond me though. Larger internal storage to go along with the two digital distribution channels they're pushing? Different colors? Moar Pikmans? But an all new system together? So soon? That's just assinine.

 

[agrajag]

So Nintendo who is making money hand over fist by actual profit and not this revenue bullshit that spin doctors use as a metric, is going to release a new system before the other competitors? Don't these guys get paid a lot of money? Much less, has Nintendo ever released a console before it's competitors?

Presumably they will release the higher spec Wii in order to stay competitive with 360 when it gets massive price cuts, a waggle wand and shit like that.

 

[Evander]

Presumably they will release the higher spec Wii in order to stay competitive with 360 when it gets massive price cuts, a waggle wand and shit like that.

But Nintendo is a software manufacturer, not just a hardware manufacturer.

A 360 price cut and motion controller wouldn't mean anything to Nintendo unless the 360 was also getting software that rivalled Wii software. Just because the 360 can output at a higher resolution wouldn't mean that Nintendo would automatically have to upgrade their system.



The folks who have this huge demand for the Wii are not the folks who care so deeply about HD graphics. The 360 may break in to the Wii marketshare with the changes they are planning, but it won't be because of HD.

 

[Cheez-It]

Presumably they will release the higher spec Wii in order to stay competitive with 360

lol

when it gets massive price cuts

lol

a waggle wand

lol

and shit like that.

You can surely do better than this.

 

[agrajag]

I'm just explaining the analyst's logic, I don't subscribe to it.

 

[Bizzyb]

Please, we all know Microsoft and Sony care more about making hard core gamers happy than making money

Sony/MS Loves us.

 

[agrajag]

But Nintendo is a software manufacturer, not just a hardware manufacturer.

A 360 price cut and motion controller wouldn't mean anything to Nintendo unless the 360 was also getting software that rivalled Wii software. Just because the 360 can output at a higher resolution wouldn't mean that Nintendo would automatically have to upgrade their system.



The folks who have this huge demand for the Wii are not the folks who care so deeply about HD graphics. The 360 may break in to the Wii marketshare with the changes they are planning, but it won't be because of HD.

Did you miss the E3 conference? They're trying to appeal to the casuals with their new Mii-type interface and whatnot. Time will tell if they'll be successful with this strategy or not though.

 

[[Nintex]]

Whatever they do I'll get caught up in the hype and buy it day one. I'd spend another $250 for a Wii that allows me to play Super Mario Galaxy in 720p and has more storage space. I'm simply too weak to resist

 

[marc^o^]

By the time competition comes up with motion based controlers, Nintendo will have released a 3D display device, making a Wii HD unnecessary. Believe.

 

[Rollo Lawson]

i understand where you guys are coming from, but i believe this guy. theres still the nagging issue of hardcore vs. casual that nintendo needs to address and resolve...before anyone else does. given nintendo's history, i dont think they going to be content with the success of wii for too long. it wouldnt be smart for any company to do that and allow any competitor to get the jump. just my 2...

and now with apple knocking on the gaming window, it's even more critical - as they have a better grip on attracting both types of consumers right now than anyone

 

[[Nintex]]

i understand where you guys are coming from, but i believe this guy. theres still the nagging issue of hardcore vs. casual that nintendo needs to address and resolve...

They're selling millions and Nintendo's "hardcore" will line-up for Mario Super Sluggers and Animal Crossing perhaps even Wii Music. Nintendo doesn't have to do anything... and that's the problem.

 

[maniac-kun]

the real secret behind the wii success is the low price at launch and the waggle if ps3 or 360 was launched at the same price they would have outsold the wii iam pretty sure about that
i think sony and ms dont see the wii as real competition because it aims at a different market so they dont care if nintendo launches first with there "next-gen"-ductape thing

 

[Tobor]

is nintendo even part of this war anymore?

Until video game stores stop selling Nintendo products and the big box stores move the stuff to a different part of the store, they are still in direct competition.

Tell yourselves whatever you need to sleep at night, but it's true.

 

[charlequin]

the real secret behind the wii success is the low price at launch and the waggle if ps3 or 360 was launched at the same price they would have outsold the wii iam pretty sure about that

Then you have such a horrid understanding of the market that you should never, ever comment on videogame sales and marketing again.

 

[Tobor]

Then you have such a horrid understanding of the market that you should never, ever comment on videogame sales and marketing again.

What's really funny is that he edited and made his post worse.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

I think the next war will be sparked by Sony exiting the console race and Microsoft buying the Playstation business. I think at some point Stringer is going to decide that the R&D and the new generation launch is too expensive of a gamble, and offer Microsoft the opportunity to have the brand, the contracts, and the executives involved in Japan. I think Ballmer will take it. At that point they will gear their R&D to release a Playstation 4 in Japan, and will use either or both brandings for other markets. They'll aim to advertise full PS1 & PS2 compatibility, with selected compatibility for PS3 games.

It's possible that Apple will try and join again with an Intel based competitor that has a pointer like the Wii, but I think it will have about 10% chance of happening. It may be based around the AppleTV platform and be a beefed up version of such that does games distribution through download only.