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Are you COLLAPSE aware? If not, watch this video
- Thread starter Starfield
- Start date
Pejo
Member
Now that's what I call a feel good video.
He's probably right on a lot of points. Mostly being that people are selfish and narcissistic, and that nobody is going to drastically reduce their quality of life to 1/6 to save the planet. Humanity had a good but short run I guess.
He's probably right on a lot of points. Mostly being that people are selfish and narcissistic, and that nobody is going to drastically reduce their quality of life to 1/6 to save the planet. Humanity had a good but short run I guess.
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Starfield
Member
The funny thing is you can quote any part of that video and won't find any facts or evidence pointing towards the opposite of it.
Forget this Covid thing, THIS is the real danger that the WHOLE world should be fighting against, not developing a bs vaccine.
The only thing a c19 vaccine helps is that some organizations, corporations or nations get incredibly (more) rich by it.
Its never about helping or saving humanity
DeepBreath87
Banned
Earth Is Not in the Midst of a Sixth Mass Extinction
“As scientists we have a responsibility to be accurate about such comparisons.”
amp.theatlantic.com
Here you go. There’s one.
FreedomOfSpeech
Banned
It's how earth will restabilize.
Things are too out of whack. Time to pay the piper consuming eons of solar energy in a few centuries.
That price? BLOOOODDDD
Things are too out of whack. Time to pay the piper consuming eons of solar energy in a few centuries.
That price? BLOOOODDDD
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Do you have an alternative that's better than capitalism?
Dargor
Member
Yes, we call it anti-communism, its the exact same thing as communism, but since we call it anti-communism, we're cool.
Stiflers Mom
Banned
You mean prolapse?
That's such a weird category on Pornhub I'd rather skip.
Furlong
Banned
What comforts will you give up?
Mr Nash
square pies = communism
Stiflers Mom
Banned
Good question.
jadedm17
Member
Good video OP.
I've been saying for a long time I think things will get massively more complicated in the coming years.
We're being attacked on every side, from inability to afford housing to job automation to global warming.
That's before you include things like the wealth inequality divide and current civil unrest.
We all need to prepare the best we can as soon as possible.
I agree with the video in thinking we're too far gone for real change, namely in how our culture is built to consume : Look at how many are fighting for rent because people aren't out spending $6 on a beer.
Hope for the best but expect the worst.
I've been saying for a long time I think things will get massively more complicated in the coming years.
We're being attacked on every side, from inability to afford housing to job automation to global warming.
That's before you include things like the wealth inequality divide and current civil unrest.
We all need to prepare the best we can as soon as possible.
I agree with the video in thinking we're too far gone for real change, namely in how our culture is built to consume : Look at how many are fighting for rent because people aren't out spending $6 on a beer.
Hope for the best but expect the worst.
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FemdomFilmFan
Banned
TyphoonStruggle
Member
Video was meh.
He was quickly spouting lots of information but refused to share why they matter or how they’re connected.
He was quickly spouting lots of information but refused to share why they matter or how they’re connected.
Basically this
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Joe T.
Member
That video was only anxiogenic for the sake of being anxiogenix, it wasn't exactly making a very definitive statement.
This argument has one massive problem at its foundation: everyone leaves the progress that will occur between now (2017 in this case) and 2100 out of the equation, technological and otherwise. The next 10-15 years alone will see some drastic changes in consumer tech and societal changes that will be driven by it, good luck factoring in the potential advances that are coming in the next 25, 50 or 75 years.
For example the UN and Bill Gates a few years ago worried the world's population would hit 11.2B by 2100, but some important factors such as fertility are constantly evolving and require a recalculation of those projections. A recent study in The Lancet claimed the population will peak at 9.7B in 2064 before falling down to 8.8B before century's end. That's a significant difference from the projection made in 2017 - same year as this video as luck would have it.
Life and this world is what we make of it. If everyone on the planet is sulking around thinking about doom and gloom then who's going to provide the answers we need? Keep your head up and the gears inside it always turning. We survived the last few hundred years, I'm sure we'll find ways to survive the next few hundred, too.
This argument has one massive problem at its foundation: everyone leaves the progress that will occur between now (2017 in this case) and 2100 out of the equation, technological and otherwise. The next 10-15 years alone will see some drastic changes in consumer tech and societal changes that will be driven by it, good luck factoring in the potential advances that are coming in the next 25, 50 or 75 years.
For example the UN and Bill Gates a few years ago worried the world's population would hit 11.2B by 2100, but some important factors such as fertility are constantly evolving and require a recalculation of those projections. A recent study in The Lancet claimed the population will peak at 9.7B in 2064 before falling down to 8.8B before century's end. That's a significant difference from the projection made in 2017 - same year as this video as luck would have it.
Life and this world is what we make of it. If everyone on the planet is sulking around thinking about doom and gloom then who's going to provide the answers we need? Keep your head up and the gears inside it always turning. We survived the last few hundred years, I'm sure we'll find ways to survive the next few hundred, too.
FemdomFilmFan
Banned
rofif
Can’t Git Gud
I mean the whole climate change bullshit is unstoppable. Whenever Ikea will produce less plastic or mcdonald will stop giving plastic straws to their sodas (I hate those paper straws) it won't change anything. We already only have shitty summer and shitty non winter in europe. We had all 4 seasons when I was a kid... but I still don't fully believe in global warming lol.
Only rich people can allow to be more green. Poor people are too poor to care or just cannot. And most of the world is poor.
So no matter what we do and how much YOU will try to be green. it won't even make a dent at all as sad as it is.
Only rich people can allow to be more green. Poor people are too poor to care or just cannot. And most of the world is poor.
So no matter what we do and how much YOU will try to be green. it won't even make a dent at all as sad as it is.
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betrayal
Banned
There is a lot of exaggeration in the video. It seems as if all critical and important topics were taken and then the worst prognosis was taken as given.
Concerning the animal life and the climate, everything is basically correct, but is by far not as bad or "unstoppable" as depicted.
As for energy (oil, gas, coal and renewable energies), most of it is simply wrong and lies. The diagrams in the video, for example, are complete garbage and taken out of context. Oil, gas and coal have not reached a peak due to scarcity. You can simply google that.
Concerning the animal life and the climate, everything is basically correct, but is by far not as bad or "unstoppable" as depicted.
As for energy (oil, gas, coal and renewable energies), most of it is simply wrong and lies. The diagrams in the video, for example, are complete garbage and taken out of context. Oil, gas and coal have not reached a peak due to scarcity. You can simply google that.
bender
What time is it?
We probably aren't fucked but in a few generations...
We've progressed too much scientifically, specifically related to our healthcare. People live too long thanks to medical advancements and a lot of our traditions haven't adjusted to compensate (be fruitful and multiply) and have led to mass overpopulation. All the other issues mentioned in the video are just a byproduct of supporting overpopulation. Having lots of kids made sense when there was a decent chance your kid wouldn't reach adulthood, things like a broken leg could kill you and living into your 40s was considered a long life. Maybe we'll get lucky and have something akin to Cornovirus take out 90% of the world's population or maybe we'll go fallout and just start a nuclear war and decimate the world's population. Things tend to course correct but there is no way that every country in the world will come to a consensus and cut back on consumption.
Maybe China limiting how many kids their citizens could have wasn't such a horrible idea.
We've progressed too much scientifically, specifically related to our healthcare. People live too long thanks to medical advancements and a lot of our traditions haven't adjusted to compensate (be fruitful and multiply) and have led to mass overpopulation. All the other issues mentioned in the video are just a byproduct of supporting overpopulation. Having lots of kids made sense when there was a decent chance your kid wouldn't reach adulthood, things like a broken leg could kill you and living into your 40s was considered a long life. Maybe we'll get lucky and have something akin to Cornovirus take out 90% of the world's population or maybe we'll go fallout and just start a nuclear war and decimate the world's population. Things tend to course correct but there is no way that every country in the world will come to a consensus and cut back on consumption.
Maybe China limiting how many kids their citizens could have wasn't such a horrible idea.
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Stilton Disco
Member
Indeed, same with his dismissal of nuclear power, statement on all renewable energy having such negative side effects as to be no solution to our problems, ignorance of improvements in clean battery tech, and belief in the Gulf Stream collapse.
There’s a lot of correct information there, because on a worldwide scale, our current globally connected, multicultural civilisation probably cannot continue to function, but that’s a far cry from the scaremongering of a total collapse of all civilisations this video is portraying.
We will change, and adapt, and not everyone will be able to do so fast enough, but we will continue to thrive, as we always have, one way or another.
Starfield
Member
Too much positive thinking
Starfield
Member
alright. keep dreaming on, stay inside the bubble and watch out for pointy objects!
Omega Supreme Holopsicon
Banned
Civilization is on a knife's edge. On the one hand we're near the brink of radical world changing progress at an unimaginaginable rate, on the other we're also on the brink of collapsing and regressing back centuries and mass starvation and death.
If we succeeded before this century is over we'd be a space faring civilization. The thing is if we succeeded we'd be colonizing the entire galaxy in a few million years. But the worrying thing is we're unlikely to be the first to reach this stage, and when we look up, there doesn't seem to be any evidence of anyone ever succeeding.
Conventional oil essentially peaked around 2005(it's in somewhat of a plateau thanks to a few countries offsetting). 90+% of the world has been in decline since about 2010, iirc. A few countries including the US and iraq managed to offset the global losses, primarily the US. The US used the barely profitable, some would say unprofitable(lots of bankruptcies and losses despite cheap low interest money from investors and loans), shale revolution to produce oil
Shale oil wells produce like 90+% of all the oil they'll ever produce within the first few years, so what they've done is drill hundreds upon hundreds of wells year after year to keep the growth going. But it is just a short term fix, US shale is expected to peak in a few years, and there's unlikely to be any comparable global source to replace it.
The US was said to have a century of natural gas, but again this was also based mostly on shale gas and that also has 90+% of its production within the first few years.
Coal I've heard will peak around 2040. Not only is lower eroei coal left, but the issue is not scarcity, there'd probably be as much coal still in the ground as all that's ever been produced by 2040. The problem is rate of production, You cannot keep increasing rate of production till you deplete a resource, the more you claim of a physical resource whatever less gets harder and harder to extract. For example even if there's plenty of oil in the ground, there's only so fast a rate a well can extract it, you can't extract it faster and faster as less and less is left. You could in theory by spending more energy but that defeats the purpose.
If we succeeded before this century is over we'd be a space faring civilization. The thing is if we succeeded we'd be colonizing the entire galaxy in a few million years. But the worrying thing is we're unlikely to be the first to reach this stage, and when we look up, there doesn't seem to be any evidence of anyone ever succeeding.
Conventional oil essentially peaked around 2005(it's in somewhat of a plateau thanks to a few countries offsetting). 90+% of the world has been in decline since about 2010, iirc. A few countries including the US and iraq managed to offset the global losses, primarily the US. The US used the barely profitable, some would say unprofitable(lots of bankruptcies and losses despite cheap low interest money from investors and loans), shale revolution to produce oil
Shale oil wells produce like 90+% of all the oil they'll ever produce within the first few years, so what they've done is drill hundreds upon hundreds of wells year after year to keep the growth going. But it is just a short term fix, US shale is expected to peak in a few years, and there's unlikely to be any comparable global source to replace it.
The US was said to have a century of natural gas, but again this was also based mostly on shale gas and that also has 90+% of its production within the first few years.
Coal I've heard will peak around 2040. Not only is lower eroei coal left, but the issue is not scarcity, there'd probably be as much coal still in the ground as all that's ever been produced by 2040. The problem is rate of production, You cannot keep increasing rate of production till you deplete a resource, the more you claim of a physical resource whatever less gets harder and harder to extract. For example even if there's plenty of oil in the ground, there's only so fast a rate a well can extract it, you can't extract it faster and faster as less and less is left. You could in theory by spending more energy but that defeats the purpose.
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Omega Supreme Holopsicon
Banned
It does seem my initial calculations were wrong it's 40% of production within first few years for shale oil wells. But as you can see a 90~% production decline means it will only produce a trickle for a few decades before essentially being closed.
Depending on who you ask shale will peak between 2025-2035~.
JWN Energy
That was in 2019 prior to covid's price collapse which should have made the situation worse. There have been plenty of articles of a good portion of the shale industry being in the red.
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Here's a link reference on the fast decline rate of shale natural gas.
Decline of Natural Gas Well Production and Royalties Over Time
The production rate of shale gas wells declines steadily over time. At constant gas prices this will result in lower royalty payments.
geology.com
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There is debate about peak coal's date. Some sources say 400 years, others 200 years others 100 years. While still others say peak is imminent at least for the US, and probably other nations as well.
Peak Coal: Will the US Run Out of Coal in 20 Years or 200 Years?
“Most U.S. coal is buried too deeply to be mined at a profit.”
www.greentechmedia.com
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HellforLeather
Member
If people would just stop producing litters of children, we could avoid a lot of this.
eddie4
Genuinely Generous
Ornlu
Banned
It does seem my initial calculations were wrong it's 40% of production within first few years for shale oil wells. But as you can see a 90~% production decline means it will only produce a trickle for a few decades before essentially being closed.
Depending on who you ask shale will peak between 2025-2035~.
JWN Energy
www.jwnenergy.com
That was in 2019 prior to covid's price collapse which should have made the situation worse. There have been plenty of articles of a good portion of the shale industry being in the red.
edit:
Here's a link reference on the fast decline rate of shale natural gas.
Decline of Natural Gas Well Production and Royalties Over Time
The production rate of shale gas wells declines steadily over time. At constant gas prices this will result in lower royalty payments.geology.com
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There is debate about peak coal's date. Some sources say 400 years, others 200 years others 100 years. While still others say peak is imminent at least for the US, and probably other nations as well.
Peak Coal: Will the US Run Out of Coal in 20 Years or 200 Years?
“Most U.S. coal is buried too deeply to be mined at a profit.”
Are you confusing "peak" as in "This is the year when the world consumed the most" with "When the maximum potential output is achieved"?
If your argument is that the world will most likely trend downward in its' potential consumption of crude oil moving forward, I think that is highly likely.
If your argument is that the world has already passed its' potential production peak, I would definitely disagree. There are many sources that are either unused or underused due to the current low market price.
Which of those two are you arguing?
In regards to crude oil; the world is currently in a glut, which is why fuel is extremely cheap as compared to a decade ago. The US shale boom has basically removed the US from the world crude market in a buying capacity (we still import and export, but we are almost neutral on net now), and as a result OPEC has had to reorient themselves to account for that massive loss of sales. While overall consumption worldwide increases modestly (most) years, production expansion outstrips consumption demand.
In regards to coal; the US shale boom has largely removed coal and intentionally drilled Natural Gas from North America. Natural Gas is a byproduct of crude oil drilling in shale, and comes out in such massive quantities that it has become basically "free" for energy companies to purchase. As a result, all over the US coal plants are closing down, with NatGas plants being put up to use the glut.
Omega Supreme Holopsicon
Banned
Oil hovered for around 100$ a barrel from 2008 to 2016. Yet if you watch the previous graphs the great majority of the countries production declined throughout that period. You think they didn't want that juicy 100$ a barrel money? They didn't increase production because they couldn't. It's called the hubbert peak.
The US conventional oil peaked decades ago, and had to increase imports it couldn't increase production. It was only through unconventional more expensive shale recently that production rebounded. And there have been articles about several shale companies being in the red even at times where prices were near 100$ a barrel.
Now how viable was shale? Even with extensive financial help, and even with near 100$ barrel prices and still having trouble to profit. Not to mention the environmental destruction of fracking. And the fact the wells only last a few decades at most, with nearly half of the production in the first few years.
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New oil discoveries peaked decades ago. Most of the world's oil is produced by a few very old giant oil fields that are on decline.
edit2:
the current glut is due to demand collapse from covid. IF we expect the economy not only to recover but to continue growing, and third world countries to gain our standards of living, oil demand should keep growing for the indefinite future.
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Regards shale
COLUMN-Bakken oil wells and the Red Queen's revenge: Kemp
More than 22,000 wells have been drilled in North Dakota since oil was discovered in 1951, but over half of state production comes from around 4,000 wells drilled since the start of 2013.
www.reuters.com
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Giant Oil Field Decline Rates - Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse
Summary of article 1, Cobb's "Aging Giant Oil Fields" 2013 The world’s 507 giant oil fields comprise a little over 1% of all oil fields, but produce 60% of current world supply Of the 331 largest fields, 261, or 79%, are declining at 6.5% per year. Techno-fixes have made matters worse because...
energyskeptic.com
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Jill Valentine
Member
Conductor, we have a problem.
Tesseract
Banned
i've been through the mud and blood in ways you cannot imagine
Starfield
Member
overpopulation isnt real dude, shaddap
Conductor, we have a problem.
Jill Valentine
Member
Overpopulation IS NOT the problem for me. Human nature is, and you have potentially billions of new people who want YOUR stuff, and they will take it from you. They won't care about your knowledge/wisdom or charity. The wolves will eat the sheep. And from that, the problem will not in fact be solved, and the scale of populations here or there will be a massive problem. We could ask them kindly to step back with us and see how that works, except it never will. A patriotic iron fist with an agenda for a sustainable future is the only thing that will produce a desirable outcome in my eyes, whether through stone cold diplomacy or bullets. I wish it weren't so, but that's the nature of the animal. None of the "suicide by soy" Marxist plan to save the environment is going to produce results except fuck over the only people with the power to stop the problem; I think that's my contention as someone who's onboard with protecting the earth. I like things that function well!
It pulls my mind to when people intervene in nature, even with the intent on being nice. Feeding strays etc. All the best intentions. Being nice makes us feel good. Not that I'm a philosopher but what's that guy where he talks about "How we do know if an action is just/justice or good? By outcome or intent?" or whatever. Reality is really cold and you've got to do the hard things to get good outcomes.
It pulls my mind to when people intervene in nature, even with the intent on being nice. Feeding strays etc. All the best intentions. Being nice makes us feel good. Not that I'm a philosopher but what's that guy where he talks about "How we do know if an action is just/justice or good? By outcome or intent?" or whatever. Reality is really cold and you've got to do the hard things to get good outcomes.
T8SC
Member
Ornlu
Banned
Oil hovered for around 100$ a barrel from 2008 to 2016. Yet if you watch the graphs the great majority of the countries production declined throughout that period. You think they didn't want that juicy 100$ a barrel money? They didn't increase production because they couldn't. It's called the hubbert peak.
The US conventional oil peaked decades ago, and had to increase imports it couldn't increase production. It was only through unconventional more expensive shale recently that production rebounded. And there have been articles about several shale companies being in the red even at times where prices were near 100$ a barrel.
Now how viable was shale? Even with extensive financial help, and even with near 100$ barrel prices and still having trouble to profit. Not to mention the environmental destruction of fracking. And the fact the wells only last a few decades at most, with nearly half of the production in the first few years.
edit:
New oil discoveries peaked decades ago. Most of the world's oil is produced by a few very old giant oil fields that are on decline.
edit2:
the current glut is due to demand collapse from covid. IF we expect the economy not only to recover but to continue growing, and third world countries to gain our standards of living, oil demand should keep growing for the indefinite future.
edit3:
Regards shale
COLUMN-Bakken oil wells and the Red Queen's revenge: Kemp
More than 22,000 wells have been drilled in North Dakota since oil was discovered in 1951, but over half of state production comes from around 4,000 wells drilled since the start of 2013.
edit4:
Giant Oil Field Decline Rates - Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse
Summary of article 1, Cobb's "Aging Giant Oil Fields" 2013 The world’s 507 giant oil fields comprise a little over 1% of all oil fields, but produce 60% of current world supply Of the 331 largest fields, 261, or 79%, are declining at 6.5% per year. Techno-fixes have made matters worse because...
Like I said, I think you're way off on the world energy market. You are assuming that countries not overmaxing production during peak oil price times indicates a lack of ability to do so. In reality, worldwide crude production is largely determined by how much OPEC wants to pump. They can and will increase or decrease production outputs to achieve the price they desire. Russia usually produces what it can with what it has (turning off production in Siberia isn't easy), and the US usually produces what it can, as it is more beneficial politically and economically for the US to be a net producer.
In regards to shale, I'm not particularly concerned with "The Red Queen". The industry has undergone massive technological changes and breakthroughs (as it is with any new industry) in the last few years that has increased efficiency drastically year over year. The drilling of new wells is also a feature of the industry, not something to be pointed to as an indicator of decline. These aren't "wells" in a traditional sense, as shale isn't a liquid. It's not as if the wells are all drawings from one giant pool, as with conventional crude oil fields.
The current low oil price should drive out anyone who really shouldn't be in the industry, and the companies that remain should be lean and strong when the price does increase. For the time being, the low price is a boon for consumers.
Slings and Arrows
Banned
It makes me sad and angry (sangry?) when i see that my Grandad was knocking about in his prime with only 2.5 billion other people. What a glorious time to be alive.
Conductor, we have a problem.
Fuck population. 95% of people are living like bacteria anyway. Consume, reproduce, consume reproduce.
Over-population is needed to keep the capitalist and globalist gravy-trian running
lock2k
Banned
In 50 years, those of us who are still alive will look back and laugh.
I probably won't be alive by then, but doom and gloom predictions are as old as humanity itself.
It will be just fine.
Also, one day the sun will turn into a Red Giant. Why do people even care about the earth if the earth is temporary? Fucking lol. Enjoy your lives.
I probably won't be alive by then, but doom and gloom predictions are as old as humanity itself.
It will be just fine.
Also, one day the sun will turn into a Red Giant. Why do people even care about the earth if the earth is temporary? Fucking lol. Enjoy your lives.
Omega Supreme Holopsicon
Banned
So you think the US started importing oil as lowered production continued for decades, because it wanted to? You think the vastly cheaper conventional oil in US has not increased production for unknown reasons? If they could significantly increase cheap conventional oil they wouldn't have to ramp unconventional more expensive shale production.
As I pointed out 60~% of global oil is from giant oil fields, most decades old even 50+year olds, that are experiencing significant decline rate. IT is not that they want to lower production, it is that this is the natural course of resource extraction for conventional oil as happened to the US.
At current natural field production decline rates we need to add a new saudi arabia of production every 3 years. Where are these saudi arabias going to come from?
Oil discoveries peaked nearly half a century ago.
Yes we can believe that the world doesn't produce more oil because it doesn't want to, that the natural course observed over fields and countries does not apply. But we need to be realistic here.
Hubbert peak theory - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
What is observed is that countries don't peak in production because they want to, they peak in production because they try to exploit their resources as much as possible and then naturally there are limits to physical resource extraction(There are a few exceptions, for political reasons, but in general that seems to be the case). After limits are reached they reach a decline that has never been reversed with regards to conventional oil. The only thing that would reverse it is a significant new discovery to extract. OR as in the case of the US resorting to expensive unconventional sources, in the case of the US highly destructive to the environment.
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Ornlu
Banned
This is the opposite of what I said about the US. I even called out the US and Russia specifically, as they have both have reasons to do what they do. I could call out a couple of other producers in that regard as well, for what it's worth.
If you want to take what I said and spin it to make it fit your narrative, go for it. You still don't understand the industries you're railing on about.
Omega Supreme Holopsicon
Banned
I'm not an expert in the field, I'm just a paserby. But here's the thing, if you look at global production, essentially shale has covered the deficit from declining production and allowed for some growth. But as has been said, MOST of the world production is from a few hundred decaying giant oil fields. We need to bring online a new saudi arabia every 3 years, that is just to maintain production, let alone allow for growth.
For now we've been able to do it, mostly in the US. But can we come up with 2 new saudi arabias within the next 6 years? 4 within 12 years? And 8 within 24 years?
I'm just not as optimistic as you are, that this massive quantity of oil will pop out of thin air or is just sitting there as spare capacity
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Stilton Disco
Member
Meabwhile our descendants will raise a toast to our sadly dead mother earth on a nice terraformed beach somewhere.
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