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[sonycowboy]

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/troywolverton/10175878.html

Analysts expect a select number of titles, including Take-Two Interactive's (TTWO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas and Microsoft's (MSFT:Nasdaq - commentary - research) Halo 2, to score big in the fourth quarter. Just about everything else will be scrambling for shelf space, media attention and sales, analysts project.

"There are only so many consumer dollars to go around, so I don't think everyone can win," said Michael Pachter, who covers the video-game industry for Wedbush Morgan Securities.

In the meantime, THQ and Midway Games (MWY:NYSE - commentary - research) have each announced that they will delay releasing expected titles. THQ delayed S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chernobyl, while Midway put off releasing Area 51. Both companies cited fourth-quarter competition for their moves.

What are the big 7? This lists 4

the problem many of the video-game publishers face is that they simply don't have the hot titles this year. Pachter predicts that just seven games will count as blockbusters this fall, including Sony's (SNE:NYSE - commentary - research) Gran Turismo 4 and Half-Life 2 from Vivendi Universal's (V:NYSE - commentary - research) Sierra Entertainment division, in addition to San Andreas and Halo 2.

EA Bragging

Despite their modest fourth-quarter financial projections, both EA and Activision sounded upbeat about their prospects. EA thinks its titles will fare well against the competition, company CFO Warren Jenson said in a recent interview. Fourth-quarter revenue for EA will likely be larger than full-year sales for any other software publisher, Jenson projected.

and the most interesting, while cleary far-fetched is:

To be sure, no one knows exactly how the fourth quarter will play out. As Spiegel notes, the fourth quarter is still a ways off, and a number of potential blockbusters may be delayed or, worse, busts. Already at risk, he thinks, are Halo 2, which Microsoft declined to show on the showroom floor at the industry's key E3 conference in May, and Gran Turismo 4, which Sony has already delayed.

 

[SolidSnakex]

"What are the big 7? This lists 4 "

MGS3 and Metroid Prime 2 would bring it up to 6.

 

[open_mouth_]

but the tatoo...

 

[Teddman]

Spiegel's just pissed because he didn't get to play Halo 2.

 

[DopeyFish]

Big 7? More like Big 20.

Gah.

 

[SolidSnakex]

I wonder what he meant about GT4 already being delayed? It's had a November date for awhile now. But Sony made sure to say that they're going to give Kaz as much time as need with the game, so it could definetly be delayed. I think they still remember the fan backlash from GT2.

 

[human5892]

The world would stop rotating before Microsoft delayed Halo 2. That guy is a bona-fide moron.

 

[Deleted member 284]

In the meantime, THQ and Midway Games (MWY:NYSE - commentary - research) have each announced that they will delay releasing expected titles. THQ delayed S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chernobyl, while Midway put off releasing Area 51. Both companies cited fourth-quarter competition for their moves.

Nice to know that some of these publishers have a damn brain

 

[MaddenNFL64]

So many games are going to sell big. Minish cap is coming out this year, so add another to the big game pot.

 

[Catchpenny]

It's "Magical Hood" now, and since when is it coming out this year?

The Pokemon remakes should be in the top 7 as well.

 

[human5892]

The Pokemon remakes should be in the top 7 as well.

IAWTP... maybe even at the absolute top of the list, between the both of them. Especially with the wireless adapters bundled in, I really think these games are going to be huge.

 

[DrLazy]

Just thinking about where the DS fits with all this crap makes your head explode. This holiday is going to be a blood bath.

 

[jedimike]

The big 7....

the 4 mentioned above plus

Splinter Cell 3
Need for Speed Underground 2
Metroid Prime 2

 

[evilromero]

Splinter Cell 3
Need for Speed Underground 2

I don't know about these. I don't see SC3 coming out this fall. And NFS2 is just a sequel to a mediocre turning-point for the series.

 

[rastex]

I don't know about these. I don't see SC3 coming out this fall. And NFS2 is just a sequel to a mediocre turning-point for the series.

That was the first game (I think Ever, I know ever for EA) to be Number 1 in the charts in both NA and Europe. NFSU turned out to be an absolutely HUGE game, and EA is gonna REALLY market to hell the sequel. I personally dislike the game as well, but don't discount it's impact on the market.

 

[Link316]

What are the big 7? This lists 4

MGS3
NFSU2
THUG2

 

[jarrod]

MGS3
NFSU2
THUG2

Well, if we're adding in multiplatform annual hits, I'd say the LOTR RPG would likely bump MGS3 out.

 

[sonycowboy]

I don't know about these. I don't see SC3 coming out this fall. And NFS2 is just a sequel to a mediocre turning-point for the series.

NFSU underground outsold Halo (over 5 million copies sold). but I don't think it's one of the big ones their talking about, Splinter Cell either. I think they're using "big games" as a combination of sales & huge buzz. Madden will be one of the top sellers this year, but isn't considered a big monster for the industry because it happens every single year.

My Proposed List
1) GTA: SA
2) Halo
3) Half-Life 2
4) Doom 3
5) MGS3
6) Sims 2.0
7) GT4

 

[jedimike]

NFSU underground outsold Halo (over 5 million copies sold). but I don't think it's one of the big ones their talking about, Splinter Cell either. I think they're using "big games" as a combination of sales & huge buzz. Madden will be one of the top sellers this year, but isn't considered a big monster for the industry because it happens every single year.

My Proposed List
1) GTA: SA
2) Halo
3) Half-Life 2
4) Doom 3
5) MGS3
6) Sims 2.0
7) GT4

Maybe... I don't think Doom will maintain sales through the 4th quarter though. The Sims franchise is old news. The people that still play sims are the ones who are content with the millions of hours of enjoyment that sims 1.0 offers. It's hard to predict though, because joe gamer is so easily drawn to licensed material (Enter the Matrix). A game can come out of the blue and suprise us all (GTA, Splinter Cell).

 

[sonycowboy]

Maybe... I don't think Doom will maintain sales through the 4th quarter though. The Sims franchise is old news. The people that still play sims are the ones who are content with the millions of hours of enjoyment that sims 1.0 offers. It's hard to predict though, because joe gamer is so easily drawn to licensed material (Enter the Matrix). A game can come out of the blue and suprise us all (GTA, Splinter Cell).

Well, I'm pretty sure these are the seven, but I agree there are other games that will sell more. The Sims 2.0 will be a monster though. Alot of the expansion packs have all gone over a million units showing the those "gamers" do want frequent content updates, which Sims 2.0 will fulfill in spades. Splinter Cell will not be that big because of the 4 games at the top of the list. It will look great, but will be the odd man out in terms of sales.

 

[Meier]

Splinter Cell 3 will definitely not be a major hit this Christmas. Too many games in the series and too fast. PT has done terribly compared to the original and SC3 likely wont get as many orders from retailers as well due to that.

 

[jedimike]

Splinter Cell 3 will definitely not be a major hit this Christmas. Too many games in the series and too fast. PT has done terribly compared to the original and SC3 likely wont get as many orders from retailers as well due to that.

So Ubi is milking Splinter Cell... but GTA is still fresh and new? PT is doing quite well and SC3 is a true sequel with upgraded graphics and gameplay. The selling potential is definitely there.

 

[Wario64]

GTA 3 ----1 year ---- GTA:VC ----2 years ---- GTA:SA

SC ----- 1.4 years ----- SCT ----- ~0.9 years ------ SC3


I agree that Splinter Cell needs to be spaced out more. They seem to be coming out too quickly, especially when there's two games in less than a year

 

[Meier]

So Ubi is milking Splinter Cell... but GTA is still fresh and new? PT is doing quite well and SC3 is a true sequel with upgraded graphics and gameplay. The selling potential is definitely there.

Err, PT for Xbox has been out since March and hasn't even sold 400k copies. It's not doing poorly per se, but WELL below the original and it's most certainly a disappointing number in comparison.

As for the GTA comparison, the first came out in 2001.. so 3 games in 4 years. SC has had 3 games in 3 years.

 

[CrimsonSkies]

SC: PT sold good on the PC.