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As expected - Saudi's plan to increase oil production

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Phoenix

Member
Saudi Arabia plans to increase its oil production by 200,000 barrels a day next month, the kingdom's oil minister told U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon on Sunday, according to Ban's spokesman.

The U.N. secretary-general met with Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi in the port city of Jiddah during a one-day trip to the world's largest oil producer.

Farhan Haq, a spokesman who is traveling with Ban, said in an e-mail that the U.N. chief said al-Naimi told him Saudi Arabia would increase oil production by 200,000 barrels a day from June to July. In May, the kingdom increased its production by 300,000.

By July, production should be at 9.7 million barrels a day, Haq said.

Ban also said Saudi Arabia understands that the current price of oil, which topped $139 per barrel earlier this month, is not normal, according to the official Saudi Press Agency.

"The king believes that the current oil prices are abnormally high, and he is ready to restore prices to their appropriate levels," SPA quoted Ban as telling reporters in Jiddah. The report carried by SPA was in Arabic, and it did not say what language Ban spoke in.

Saudi Arabia is concerned that sustained high oil prices will eventually slacken the world's appetite for oil, affecting the kingdom in the long run.


The 200,000-barrel-a-day boost is not insignificant _ it will raise Saudi Arabia's daily production by about 2 percent. But to a market that has been sending oil prices soaring to record heights due in part to strong global demand, the move might be seen as marginal.

The oil market largely ignored Saudi Arabia's 300,000-barrel-a-day output increase last month.

In electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange late Sunday, crude oil futures were down 54 cents at $134.32 a barrel.

The kingdom has called for a meeting of oil producing and consuming countries on June 22 in Jiddah to discuss ways of dealing with soaring energy prices.

The New York Times reported on Saturday, citing unnamed analysts and oil traders briefed by Saudi officials, that a production increase of about 500,000 barrels per day was to be announced following the meeting.

On Saturday, al-Naim's adviser told The Associated Press that the minister would address the production increase reports the next day. But on Sunday, the adviser, Ibrahim al-Muhanna, said there was no meeting to address the reports scheduled.

Further attempts to reach al-Muhanna by phone later Sunday went unanswered.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, is concerned that sustained high oil prices will eventually slacken the world's appetite for oil, affecting the kingdom in the long run.

Crude prices have reached record highs, surpassing $139 per barrel on June 6 after surging nearly $11 in the biggest single-day price leap ever.

The prices had receded by Friday, with the benchmark light, sweet crude for July delivery falling $1.88 to settle at $134.86 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, July Brent crude lost $1.84 to settle at $134.25 on the ICE Futures exchange.

The current president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Chakib Khelil, has said that the cartel will make no new decision on production levels until its Sept. 9 meeting in Vienna. OPEC ministers often follow the lead of the Saudis when discussing whether to increase production to take the pressure off rising prices.


As we had discussed in previous threads. The Saudis, and a few other countries, have the ability to increase production and will do so in order to get the price back down to a more "reasonable" level. They know that the longer prices stay this way, the more inclined consumers are to have long term changes in their behavior. This bump is also likely to change the speculator perspective on the market (because the Saudis have the ability to continually increase production and cut it later), so we should start to see some declines in the price of oil.

Its all proceeding as I have foreseen.
 

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
Phoenix said:
As we had discussed in previous threads. The Saudis, and a few other countries, have the ability to increase production and will do so in order to get the price back down to a more "reasonable" level. They know that the longer prices stay this way, the more inclined consumers are to have long term changes in their behavior. This bump is also likely to change the speculator perspective on the market (because the Saudis have the ability to continually increase production and cut it later), so we should start to see some declines in the price of oil.

Its all proceeding as I have foreseen.

the-top-10-unannounced-star-wars-games-and-guides--20040921033110332.jpg


Seems we will catch a break on the fuel prices for now...
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Phoenix said:
Archived for the future.
I agree with you, but I would absolutely argue that the increase in production and the fall in prices will not be directly proportional. Price at the pump reacts quickly to increases in crude cost but reacts more slowly to similar drops in crude prices IMO
 
As long as gas stays over $2.50, we're going to continue transitioning to alternative sources of fuel for our vehicles. It'd be nice if we kicked oil to the curb before we ran out.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Cheesemeister said:
As long as gas stays over $2.50, we're going to continue transitioning to alternative sources of fuel for our vehicles. It'd be nice if we kicked oil to the curb before we ran out.
I was told by an uncle today today that high gas prices are part of a green conspiracy to make you buy "new technology" when we should all really go back and drive geo metros =/
 

mj1108

Member
scola said:
I agree with you, but I would absolutely argue that the increase in production and the fall in prices will not be directly proportional. Price at the pump reacts quickly to increases in crude cost but reacts more slowly to similar drops in crude prices IMO

The problem with the outrageous increase in gas prices hasn't been due to production -- it's been due to speculators. As long as they're allowed to continue their outrageous speculations, no amount of increase in production will get them to fall back on prices.
 
scola said:
I was told by an uncle today today that high gas prices are part of a green conspiracy to make you buy "new technology" when we should all really go back and drive geo metros =/

Well obviously, the whole move to SUVs as a vehicle of choice was a boneheaded move. What we really need are some tough fuel economy standards that take effect sooner than later. Mandate business licenses with substantive tax records for registering large trucks.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
The oil market largely ignored Saudi Arabia's 300,000-barrel-a-day output increase last month.
This statement tells me this is going to do jack shit for gas prices, considering how much the price of gas has gone up in the last month alone.
 
Phoenix said:
Archived for the future.
The US alone consumes about 20 million barrels of oil per day.

a 1% increase(in the insanely unlikely event that 100% of that goes to the states) coupled with immense greed isn't going to change anything.

The end of an unusually long spring break-up here in alberta will likely do more than the saudis putting out a little more.
 

bjork

Member
Cheesemeister said:
As long as gas stays over $2.50, we're going to continue transitioning to alternative sources of fuel for our vehicles. It'd be nice if we kicked oil to the curb before we ran out.

$2.50 gas would be pretty keen. If they locked it at that price somehow, I'd be fine with it.
 
bjork said:
$2.50 gas would be pretty keen.

That's what they want you to think.

All of this conditioned behavior results in the acceptance and even the embracing of unreasonable conditions. Fairly priced, gas should cost more like $1.50.

gasprice.png
 
The problem with the outrageous increase in gas prices hasn't been due to production -- it's been due to speculators. As long as they're allowed to continue their outrageous speculations, no amount of increase in production will get them to fall back on prices.

Yes, but the speculators are only raising the price of oil because of a weak supply. When supply goes down, demand increases, and so does the price. This could be remedied by an increase in output from the Saudis, but I think the real problem here is twofold: Russia's heavy taxation of non-Gazprom oil producers (preventing them from funding expansion into untapped oil fields), and the endless bickering over Iran's nuclear power facilities. The former is an easier dilemma to resolve than the Iran issue, but both could be resolved with a more diplomatic approach from the United States and other western nations.

Case in point: we need Obama.
 

bjork

Member
Cheesemeister said:
That's what they want you to think.

All of this conditioned behavior results in the acceptance and even the embracing of unreasonable conditions. Fairly priced, gas should cost more like $1.50.

Oh, I know. But "should" is the ideal, not the reality.
 

Seth C

Member
Razkolnikov said:
Yes, but the speculators are only raising the price of oil because of a weak supply. When supply goes down, demand increases, and so does the price. This could be remedied by an increase in output from the Saudis, but I think the real problem here is twofold: Russia's heavy taxation of non-Gazprom oil producers (preventing them from funding expansion into untapped oil fields), and the endless bickering over Iran's nuclear power facilities. The former is an easier dilemma to resolve than the Iran issue, but both could be resolved with a more diplomatic approach from the United States and other western nations.

Case in point: we need Obama.


Weak supply? Really? So you're saying sometimes it is difficult to find? The pumps are out? You're fighting with your neighbor over who gets the last gallon? You show up early to be there as soon as the tanker brings the new gas?
 
Cheesemeister said:
Well obviously, the whole move to SUVs as a vehicle of choice was a boneheaded move. What we really need are some tough fuel economy standards that take effect sooner than later. Mandate business licenses with substantive tax records for registering large trucks.

Well, the Invisible Hand is taking care of that right now, but even it may not be strong enough to slap sense into conspiracy theorists like that guy's uncle. Wow.
 
Seth C said:
Weak supply? Really? So you're saying sometimes it is difficult to find? The pumps are out? You're fighting with your neighbor over who gets the last gallon? You show up early to be there as soon as the tanker brings the new gas?

Ah, weak supply as in weak supply from primary oil providers to the market. Lower supply, means higher demand, thus causing prices to increase. Of course, supply shocks like these have been felt before in the 70s and 80s with prices more than tripling, and eventually the market did move back towards equilibrium as always - price gouging is not a long-term business plan.

It would also be wise to remember that the US has a large domestic reserve stock of oil in case of a truly wide-scale shortage because of those past supply shocks. I don't think you'll be seeing the pumps out or people fighting with their neighbors over the last gallon any time soon. :lol
 
Seth C said:
Weak supply? Really? So you're saying sometimes it is difficult to find? The pumps are out? You're fighting with your neighbor over who gets the last gallon? You show up early to be there as soon as the tanker brings the new gas?

Obviously, there is more than enough of it to go around right now. I am talking about supply in the context of speculation; that is, whether investors have confidence in the future of oil supplies. this article can explain it in more detail: http://www.yirmeyahureview.com/articles/2008/rising_oil_prices.htm

Most extremely significant reserves of oil have already been discovered. Discovery peaked generations ago. And production is many, if not most, major oil producing regions is believed to at or near peak production.

and also:

investors are "focusing on the perceived risks to future oil supplies and the growth in oil demand from emerging economies", thus hinting at a simple supply and demand explanation

It isn't that supplies are drying out now, but that they will soon. That article eschews the notion of a speculative bubble, but you can't discount the importance of speculation in the rise of oil prices.

Perhaps we will be fighting each other at the pumps, soon.
 

Neo C.

Member
Link said:
This statement tells me this is going to do jack shit for gas prices, considering how much the price of gas has gone up in the last month alone.
Pretty much.
Now just imagine what happens if one of the oil countries have to decrease their supply a little bit because of running out of oil fields.
 

Mandark

Small balls, big fun!
Phoenix said:
They know that the longer prices stay this way, the more inclined consumers are to have long term changes in their behavior.


Can't it just be that the high prices mean this is a good time to sell more oil? I'm no commodities market expert, but that seems like the simplest explanation here.
 

Tamanon

Banned
This is more to just make money short-term. I need to do some research, but is Saudi Arabia still overbooking their reserves already?
 
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