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So he can do it after all. The hard part will be replicating this success with women nationwide. Minorities are a whole other challenge too.
Bernie Sanders Surges to First Place in New Hampshire Primary Polling
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So he can do it after all. The hard part will be replicating this success with women nationwide. Minorities are a whole other challenge too.
ErasureAcer
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Bernie!
Bernie!
Bernie!
Bernie!
Bernie!
LegendofDragoonLives
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So is New Hampshire the only state he leads at the moment? Is he making any headway in the other states he was far behind in?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
He's getting crushed everywhere else.
Hmm, there's plenty of ways to detail how statistically Hillary has the best chance, but that would probably matter little to you.
I don't think her campaign is employing a "hide in the shadows" strategy. Rather, they're focusing on small events and intimate settings with an emphasis on appealing to diverse groups of voters. She doesn't need to be out and about in huge rallies for name recognition, because she already has it, so she can afford to approach campaigning differently. In a weird way, she doesn't even need to do much to be on the news; the Republicans talk about her, the media talks about her, even Bernie supporters don't post in a thread about Bernie Sanders without mentioning Hillary Clinton (positively or negatively). Donald Trump is overshadowing the Republican candidates, but Hillary is casting a shadow over the elections.
One of the dumb things that happened this election cycle was when the media made a ruckus over Hillary getting food at Chipotle. At least now we have candidate gaffes (Republican side) and policy talk (Democratic side).
It's not "not campaigning", it's about effective use of resources. NH has the bad habit of being easily swayed by things that are happening, so the Hillary campaign will probably have better returns on investment elsewhere. In the end, NH only has a small chunk of delegates (in 2008 it was 22, divided for multiple candidates), and she's going to get some of them regardless of a majority or not because Dems have a proportional vote in primary. If that's they case, she can invest it in states where Bernie lacks resources to ground game and win by margins that exceed what Bernie can get from NH. South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and so on are states where Hillary lost in 2008 that have, this time, flipped in her favor. She can also widen her margins in the states she won in 2008California, New York, Pennsylvaniawhich have huge numbers of delegates (in 2008, CA had 370, and Hillary got 204 of those compared to Obama's 166; Bernie can grab 15 delegates from NH and it'll be wiped out by CA for Hillary).
You could say that maybe Bernie could earn more delegates than Obama did in the populous states. That's harder to tell because nobody polls those states.
But dramatis, NH could give the Bernie campaign great momentum! Not really. Obama won Iowa and New Hampshire (sort of, it was actually a bit messy and later on got messed up more anyway), but still had to run the table to win with a margin of about 100 delegates from about 3400 delegates. Bernie doesn't have the level of money and resources Obama has. You have to ask yourself if the 'bandwagon effect' of Iowa and New Hampshire wins are enough to overcome a war machine on its own, without money or campaign staff.
I would say no. Especially since that war machine is now a Frankenstein mix of the Obama campaign machine and the Clinton campaign machine.
ErasureAcer
Banned
He's gaining in a lot of states. Down 12 in WI. 16 in MN. What's more important is he's doing as well if not better than Hillary in many swing states, IA, CO, and probably MI as well in which Hillary was losing to Republicans last week.
ErasureAcer
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Bernie does have money and a campaign staff. Take everything that guy said with a grain of salt.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Take it with salt like your post about how he's doing better than Clinton in Iowa, Colorado, and Michigan? How about some links.
you forgot Superdelegates but otherwise spot on dramatis as always.
This was bound to happen. Doesn't come as a surprise. Bernie has appeal to the far left and and key demographics (not necessarily far left). Bernie is fresh in the race. We're living in an age of Trump where right wing demagoguery gets you on top of practically every poll for the party in question in the nation. Mirror that to the left...
Is it surprising that someone like Bernie, who's far-far from being a clown like Trump BUT does appeal to the extreme of the party more so than Clinton get high in polls in a state like NH? Absolutely not. Not to mention Clinton is getting battered pretty hard on the PR side of things. Bernie is relatively unscathed and unaddressed by not only his opponents from his own party but those in the opposing party (currently that attention is fixated on Hillary).
He might get more polls to go his way but that's a far cry from the party nomination without a single debate yet. What you can read from polls like these, if they become a sustainable trend (give or take) is that Bernie has solidified his spot as the second most serious candidate for the Democratic Party nomination.
Goes without saying that Democrat Hillary still leads comfortably practically everywhere else and leads all of the GOP contenders comfortably too. Gaf does love the underdog in this race, despite having the best polled candidate in the current political climate on their bench. GOP fans must be envious at the luxury.
Is it surprising that someone like Bernie, who's far-far from being a clown like Trump BUT does appeal to the extreme of the party more so than Clinton get high in polls in a state like NH? Absolutely not. Not to mention Clinton is getting battered pretty hard on the PR side of things. Bernie is relatively unscathed and unaddressed by not only his opponents from his own party but those in the opposing party (currently that attention is fixated on Hillary).
He might get more polls to go his way but that's a far cry from the party nomination without a single debate yet. What you can read from polls like these, if they become a sustainable trend (give or take) is that Bernie has solidified his spot as the second most serious candidate for the Democratic Party nomination.
Goes without saying that Democrat Hillary still leads comfortably practically everywhere else and leads all of the GOP contenders comfortably too. Gaf does love the underdog in this race, despite having the best polled candidate in the current political climate on their bench. GOP fans must be envious at the luxury.
It's a weird state. I would say extremes cause freshness (Obama) is not it. But this is just a poll, many more to come and the debates will definitely shake things up, to either solidify a lead or erase it.
ErasureAcer
Banned
General Election vs Republicans.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Where are the links?
ErasureAcer
Banned
There you go. Bernie outperforming Hillary vs Republicans in Iowa and Colorado.
Hillary under water in Michigan (Friday August 21) turning a Likely Blue State into a toss-up. Bernie wasn't polled but he can't be doing worse than this.
Regardless of his standing in a single, kind of mavericky lily-white state, Bernie can't win the primary. If by some miracle he were to win the primary, his no SuperPAC money policy ensures he will be slaughtered from a 'getting out the message' standpoint. His refusal to play dirty will hurt him when he gets smeared for his self-declared socialism using hundreds of millions of dollars of SuperPAC/Koch money that will come flooding in. His policies might be popular among people on the left (and some centrists as well), but even a majority of Democrats dislike the 'socialist' label and won't vote for a candidate who openly uses it. Finally, if by some absolute miracle Sanders becomes President, he won't be able to pass any of his proposed legislation. None. A Republican majority in Congress will guarantee that. If you have a political purist in the White House with an opposing legislative branch, then nothing will get done and you'll end up with a jaded voter base - a base that won't come out in 2020/2024 to vote for the Democrat.
In a perfect world, Bernie would be President and we'd enact a wave of progressive agenda that makes things more fair and that actually help average Americans. In the real world, Bernie's agenda would be rejected, stomped on and buried, even by members of his own party (thanks, blue dogs). I'll still gladly vote for him in the general election, but I doubt it will come to that anyway.
In a perfect world, Bernie would be President and we'd enact a wave of progressive agenda that makes things more fair and that actually help average Americans. In the real world, Bernie's agenda would be rejected, stomped on and buried, even by members of his own party (thanks, blue dogs). I'll still gladly vote for him in the general election, but I doubt it will come to that anyway.
lol again in circles. Its either to early to glean anything from these numbers or its not.
Yeah Hillary has been in the news, BAD news. Yeah, she has "the Obama machine" except you know, the part that made it work i.e. Obama.
The fact is Bernie gains support when he talks and Hillary turns people off. She is a horrible candidate. If she didn't have the (D) next to her name people would lump her in with Jeb! and Walker.
FEC has the receipts. Obama's campaign fundraised double of what Bernie had (July 2007, Obama had raised $33M in that quarter alone; July 2015, Bernie only raised $15M in that quarter). In expenditures alone, Obama's campaign spent more in the quarter ending July 2007 than Bernie fundraised ($16M vs $15M).
Sure, Bernie does have money and a campaign staff. In New Hampshire and (maybe) Iowa only. Does he have staff in South Carolina? Staff in Nevada? Staff in Florida? He doesn't, because he doesn't have the money to finance such a vast operation. Bernie's only hiring organizers for NH.
Grassroots campaigns eat a lot of money. Obama wasn't joking around.
What made the Obama machine work was not Obama. That's the view of someone who didn't read about the data and analytics work that went into the campaign, the amount of grassroots efforts that needed to be sustained by money, and how the efforts were spread over multiple states.
I did not talk about the poll numbers since you complained about them.
But Hillary turns people off! Sorry, but that doesn't translate into 1) decline in donor money, 2) decline in able staff hires, or 3) decline in minority support. Bring a little substance to your argument. If your best response to a look at how the primaries in 2008 actually worked out as opposed to your ignorant perspective is this sort of answer, then it's only bad news for Bernie Sanders. After all, his supporters don't even attempt to understand the primaries. You don't have a sufficient counter for how Hillary is conducting a different campaign, or a counter argument for how Hillary can gain in states she lost in 2008 and how she has a strong hold on states with a lot of delegates. You don't have a counterargument for how Bernie is supposed to "keep winning" after Iowa and New Hampshire when his opponent has the resources to outlast him and overcome any bandwagon effect he can gain from Iowa and NH.
So what do you have? Your own personal opinion of how Bernie "gains support when he talks". Right. That wins primaries.
ErasureAcer
Banned
And yet he leads in the last 2 polls there outside the margin of error.
So fivethirtyeight is pretty skeptical of Bernie's chances, but they recently had a discussion of what it would take for him to win. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/this-is-how-bernie-sanders-could-win/
I consider the site fairly reliable and since discussion has inevitably shifted to Bernie's chances for the nomination, that this would be useful.
I consider the site fairly reliable and since discussion has inevitably shifted to Bernie's chances for the nomination, that this would be useful.
And how much money does the collective republican side have? Money means nothing backing the wrong horse.
Its more than self professed blue dogs that would vote against Bernie. The entire DNC has already crowned Hillary "their person" as an industry insider, and will do whatever it takes to make sure Bernie does not have a voice.
That is the type of establishment garbage i really dislike. I know Bernie doesn't like to hit people where it hurts, but he should really bring out where she and a lot of other democrats stand in regards to what he's saying about who's funding politicians campaigns.
If you just look down the list, where the money comes from is all that really needs to be said, but if you don't hit that point, nobody knows.
That is the type of establishment garbage i really dislike. I know Bernie doesn't like to hit people where it hurts, but he should really bring out where she and a lot of other democrats stand in regards to what he's saying about who's funding politicians campaigns.
If you just look down the list, where the money comes from is all that really needs to be said, but if you don't hit that point, nobody knows.
Lol what?
Well, no. If a poll is significantly different from all the existing polls, calling it an outlier isn't derisive, it's just factual. Definitionally, it's a data point that isn't in the existing trendline. It could mean that the trendline is changing, or it could mean nothing much -- we don't know until we get more polls. That's, like, the point of poll aggregation and all that stuff.
I certainly agree that further polling is suggesting that Bernie has a real advantage in New Hampshire. Which is good for him -- if there's any state he should be winning, it's New Hampshire. (And Vermont, obviously.)
Well....
wikipedia said:
Biden's only chance to win the nomination is if Hillary is vulnerable. Her numbers are sagging right now and the email thing is still in the news, so his team is running around making a lot of attractive but noncommittal noise to see if some of the Democratic insiders who are all backing Hillary are feeling nervous enough to jump ship.
Clearly some of them are nervous -- Hillary's team wouldn't have released that "stop freaking out" memo if people weren't freaking out. But I'm not sure if enough of them are scared to make Biden a reality.
Biden's record in presidential nomination competitions is among the worst -- I think people are way overvaluing his chances if he were to actually run.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
What makes you think he can't be doing worse? In many polls he does do worse. For instance, look at him losing by 12 points to Rubio in Pennsylvania in those shitty Quinn polls. Or losing to Bush and Rubio in Ohio by worse margins. He's also in a dead heat with a joke candidate named Trump.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-...ing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271
These early polls are kinda useless since nobody knows Bernie just yet. His "not sure" numbers are still quite high, despite him being completely upfront about his platform. If you're not sure about him, then you simply don't know him. The DNC has pushed back the debates as far as they possibly can to keep him out of the picture as much as possible.
Schopenhauerian
Member
Folks wonder about the likely impact of Prof. Lessig's campaign (e.g., help Hillary, hurt Bernie), as outlined here: http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForP...ter_to_lawrence_lessig_invitation_to_clarify/
gutter_trash
Banned
Carnby
Member
You mean wiped it with a cloth????
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
Hold off on the coronation. Hilldawg not doing so hot with millenials.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzog...um=social&utm_channel=Opinion&linkId=16805211
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzog...um=social&utm_channel=Opinion&linkId=16805211
sketchsanchez
Member
I prefer Hilladawg.
New poll, same state, similar results.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/06/bern...by-9-in-new-hampshire-gains-in-iowa-poll.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/06/bern...by-9-in-new-hampshire-gains-in-iowa-poll.html
Beelzebufo
Banned
Why is it always a surge?
POWERSPHERE
Member
I hope he wins as he probably wont run again due to turning 100.
GreatestHits
Member
Fuck that. If he makes it to 100 he better run after we get done dusting ourselves from the nuclear explosions (hopefully just metaphorical) that we endure with Clinton
Zeus Molecules
illegal immigrants are stealing our air
I wonder if Biden decides to run if These poll number Stay the same.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
pigeon: Biden has never gone into an election as a popular VP before, is the thing. Biden has name value and a lovable public image, and I think he does a decent job of splitting the difference between Bernie and Hillary. He has popular appeal and populist roots while still being a policy realist, with a sense of what can and should be done to improve the current system but without proposing radical change that has many more potential failure points.
His real problem, I think, is not his shoddy record as a candidate but the fact that being "Uncle Joe" may have made him seem too unserious and gaffe-prone in the mind of many voters. I think he'd probably mop the floor with both Hillary and Bernie in a debate, as he really is a great policy wonk and is probably the most externally intelligent-seeming of the three, but he'd have to avoid the hammy smiling he was doing during the debate with Ryan and really sell himself as a lifetime public servant trying to end his career on a high note of solidifying and expanding/fixing the changes he helped oversee as VP. Bernie I think is better as a Cato-like figure keeping the party honest, while Hillary I think has just gotten too ensconced with the bad parts of the system during her time in the public eye. For someone who has been around and achieved as much as she has, she really doesn't seem to have done much of a job of endearing herself to people, for whatever reason. That's partly the fault of the right, which, let us remember, perfected the smear machine they employed against Obama during her husband's presidency, but it's also simply that she doesn't have a very likable or genuine image.
His real problem, I think, is not his shoddy record as a candidate but the fact that being "Uncle Joe" may have made him seem too unserious and gaffe-prone in the mind of many voters. I think he'd probably mop the floor with both Hillary and Bernie in a debate, as he really is a great policy wonk and is probably the most externally intelligent-seeming of the three, but he'd have to avoid the hammy smiling he was doing during the debate with Ryan and really sell himself as a lifetime public servant trying to end his career on a high note of solidifying and expanding/fixing the changes he helped oversee as VP. Bernie I think is better as a Cato-like figure keeping the party honest, while Hillary I think has just gotten too ensconced with the bad parts of the system during her time in the public eye. For someone who has been around and achieved as much as she has, she really doesn't seem to have done much of a job of endearing herself to people, for whatever reason. That's partly the fault of the right, which, let us remember, perfected the smear machine they employed against Obama during her husband's presidency, but it's also simply that she doesn't have a very likable or genuine image.
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