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Bird flu 'could kill 150m people'!!!

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Afro Thunder

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A flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5-150 million people, a UN health official has warned.
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Because it has moved to wild migratory birds there is a possibility "that the first outbreak could happen even in Africa or in the Middle East", he warned.
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"The range of deaths could be anything between 5m and 150m," said Dr Nabarro.
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Is it an inflated estimative or a possible reality?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4292426.stm
 
They've been saying this for years, but since influenza killed many tens of millions during WW1 it is certainly possible.
 
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Flu/story?id=1172638&page=1

Sept. 30, 2005 — Amid growing concern about whether the United States is prepared for a large-scale medical emergency, medical experts say a worldwide avian flu pandemic is inevitable.

"Pandemics are like hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes," Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Disease Research and Policy explained on "Good Morning America" today. "We had 10 of them in the last 300 years, and we're due for another one sometime soon."

The World Health Organization said today that between 2 million and 7.4 million people could die from a global flu pandemic. WHO spokesman Dick Thompson told reporters in Geneva that countries have been warned to be ready to deal with up to 7.4 million deaths, but conceded there was no way to determine the deadliness of the avian flu "until the pandemic begins." The estimate was a stark contrast to the range given Thursday by Dr. David Nabarro, the U.N. coordinator for global readiness against an outbreak. He said that the world response warnings would determine whether an avian flu virus ends up killing 5 million or as many as 150 million.

The avian flu virus is spread by chickens, ducks and other birds and has been a problem in Southeast Asia for years. Since late 2003, it has killed at least 65 people in four Asian countries and has been found in birds in Russia and Europe.

With strains of the virus turning up in humans, there is growing concern among U.S. officials about the possibility of a pandemic and whether the United States is prepared to handle such a widespread medical crisis. The draft report of the federal government's emergency plan predicts that as many as 200 million Americans could be infected and 200,000 could die within a few months if the avian flu came to the United States. Right now, there is no vaccine to stop the flu.

While experts cannot pinpoint when a pandemic would strike, many say conditions are ripe.

"We believe the avian situation we currently have in Southeast Asia is a perfect set-up for this virus to mutate into a human-to-human transmitted agent, which is a big problem and could lead this to be the next pandemic," said Osterholm. "We also have to keep an eye on other viruses."

While experts cannot pinpoint when a pandemic would strike, many say conditions are ripe.

"We believe the avian situation we currently have in Southeast Asia is a perfect set-up for this virus to mutate into a human-to-human transmitted agent, which is a big problem and could lead this to be the next pandemic," said Osterholm. "We also have to keep an eye on other viruses."

Osterholm said the world needs to take the avian flu threat seriously because of the large human and bird population in Southeast Asia, the lack of a vaccine and the easy transmission of the disease.

"The flu is one of the most infectious agents to humans, so readily transmitted person-to-person," he said. "In the case of our population today, we have no immunity throughout the world to this particular strain of virus in Southeast Asia and because of the large bird population and human population now together over there, this virus has an opportunity to continue to be transmitted among birds, occasionally hitting humans, and each one might become a human agent."

"It's the perfect setup," Osterholm said. "Then you put air travel in and it could be around the world overnight."



Osterholm noted that no one is particularly immune from avian flu and that it has killed young, healthy people with strong immune systems. He said there are important lessons in the influenza virus pandemic that killed some 20 million people worldwide in 1918.

"You have to take a look at the 1918 experience and realize if 50 to 100 million people died and those numbers come from a recent study from a group of historians that went country by country to determine that number," said Osterholm. "Today we that have three times the number in the world — those numbers are roughly at 180 to 360 million could die. The bottom line is the way these people die. Our medical care delivery system in the modern world isn't any better prepared than in 1918."
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It's already confirmed to have been transmitted between humans.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Primetime/Investigation/story?id=1130392&page=1

"Right now in human beings, it kills 55 percent of the people it infects," says Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow on global health policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. "That makes it the most lethal flu we know of that has ever been on planet Earth affecting human beings."
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asia_map_9-11-05.gif
 
People here at GAF have said that rapidly moving pandemics are not possible and that the borders will be closed to prevent large death counts. So, while I'm in my hermetically shielded shelter - I'm not worried at all.
 
RonaldoSan said:
Media hype.

Remember SARS? Less than 10 people actually died from it or something.
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damnit, I wanted to be the first to call sars mark 2. Authorities are worried though, NZ is currently modelling an outbreak or something.
 
I wonder how many of these authorities can pull off until the public develops a boy-who-cried-wolf mentality. You know that's when the real flesh-eating virus will strike.
 
It's already confirmed to have been transmitted between humans.
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No, that hasn't been confirmed yet. Humans who have gotten it are believed to have caught it from birds, not from other people. The worry is that the virus will mutate to become transmissable between humans in the near future.
 
chaostrophy said:
No, that hasn't been confirmed yet. Humans who have gotten it are believed to have caught it from birds, not from other people. The worry is that the virus will mutate to become transmissable between humans in the near future.
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Okay, while it's not 100% confirmed, most scientists believe it to already have happened in a few cases:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4215659.stm

Scientists have said a woman who died of bird flu probably contracted the disease from her daughter.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2005/09/15/DI2005091501841.html

Washington, D.C.: From what you have learned, is there evidence that avian flu is spreading between humans and if not, what do experts consider the likelihood that this will happen?

Steven Silver: It is difficult to confirm cases of human to human transmission because there is no difference in the virus's makeup once a person has been infected. In other words, you have to exclude any other source of infection to confirm a case of human to human transmission. Nonetheless, there is strong evidence that we are seeing the first examples of human to human transmission. Our film documents one such case. He was a nurse who cared for an H5N1 patient who had no contact with poultry, infected or otherwise. The cases of human to human to transmission are rare at the moment. So we might say that the virus is capable of inefficient transmission between humans in certain rare instances. The danger is that the virus has become markedly unstable and is hopping from one species to another. What everyone fears is that the virus will develop the capacity for efficient human to human transmission.
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"Right now in human beings, it kills 55 percent of the people it infects," says Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow on global health policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. "That makes it the most lethal flu we know of that has ever been on planet Earth affecting human beings."
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I think small pox in its day was far more deadly. Death rates of 99% in some indigenous communities were not uncommon.
 
150 Million people?

That's half the US population, 25 Million more than Japan's population, and about double to triple the larger Western European countries.

Yikes.
 
CVXFREAK said:
150 Million people?

That's half the US population, 25 Million more than Japan's population, and about double to triple the larger Western European countries.

Yikes.
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I'm sure a big part of that number would be people in India and China since there are just so many people living so closely together and that seems to be where the bird flu keeps on wanting to get started
 
xabre said:
I think small pox in its day was far more deadly. Death rates of 99% in some indigenous communities were not uncommon.
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Definitely, but that was due more to it being an old world virus that was introduced into an environment that hadn't seen new residents in thousands of years and was settled by people who got there by means of siberia and alaska(both cold). People in Eurasia had an inherited edge against it and other diseases people in the Americas didn't... at all. Enter pathogens alien to the environment, and you got accidental genocide.
 
I hate thinking about the Bird Flu; what it has the potential to do to the world's population is really scary. I hope things don't get out of hand. :(
 
From what I saw on the ABC News special, it seems that Indonesia is doing everything they can to kill birds that have the flu. But I mean, how in the hell are you going to kill them all? Impossible. :|
 
Hitokage said:
Definitely, but that was due more to it being an old world virus that was introduced into an environment that hadn't seen new residents in thousands of years and was settled by people who got there by means of siberia and alaska(both cold). People in Eurasia had an inherited edge against it and other diseases people in the Americas didn't... at all. Enter pathogens alien to the environment, and you got accidental genocide.
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At first. Then it became not-so-accidental. :|
 
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