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[bitwise]

Yoshiko Hara
EE Times
(05/16/2005 11:42 AM EDT)


TOKYO — Talks among Matsushita, Sony and Toshiba designed to unify competing next-generation DVD formats have failed, making it more likely the rivals will follow separate paths to the video market.
Backers of the rival HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc formats said talks would nevertheless continue.

The rivals met here Monday (May 16). A separate meeting of the Blu-ray Disc Association atttracted 230 attendees from 80 companies. The HD DVD Promotion Group held an extraordinary meeting that drew 120 attendees from 64 companies. Both meetings were closed to the public.

Sony and Toshiba updated the status of unification talks during both meetings, according to attendees. Kiyoshi Nishitani, Sony's senior vice president, acknowledged that the three companies had failed to reach an agreement, according to a Sony spokesman.

Meanwhile, Yoshihide Fujii, president and CEO of Toshiba Digital Media Network Co., confirmed that if the 0.1-mm disk format reaches satisfactory production and cost levels, unification based on the 0.1-mm cover layer was still possible. Still, industry sources said the format has yet to meet those requirements.

Toshiba executives said unification talks have been complicated by the assumption that a merger would be based on the 0.1-mm format. They insisted that the talks should discuss technologies used in both formats.

Both Sony and Toshiba executives said the talks would continue, but downplayed the prospects that the three consumer electronics giants could reach a consensus on a unified format.

The HD DVD group said it will stick to its schedule for introducing HD DVD products later this year.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Great.

 

[PhatSaqs]

MS @ work?
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8A270AG0.htm?campaign_id=apn_tech_down

 

[midnightguy]

haha

Blu-Ray - HD-DVD fight!

 

[captmcblack]

Matsushita's down with BRD, right?

 

[Myoclonic Jerk]

booooooooooooo

 

[Shin Johnpv]

booooooooooooo

booooooooooooooouuurrrnnns

 

[gofreak]

Backers of the rival HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc formats said talks would nevertheless continue.

So it's basically as it always was. I wouldn't say "talks have failed", period, if they're still talking.

Who knows where this will end up though..

 

[seismologist]

go Blu-Ray!

 

[maximum360]

Tobhiba just wants a piece of the pie in any and everything. SED + HD DVD. If only their other products would have better quality control.

HD DVD is inferior due to total disk capacity. I hope they it handed to them if they try to push their format and forgo talks of some kind of compromise.

 

[Tenacious-V]

Tobhiba just wants a piece of the pie in any and everything. SED + HD DVD. If only their other products would have better quality control.

HD DVD is inferior due to total disk capacity. I hope they it handed to them if they try to push their format and forgo talks of some kind of compromise.

And you think Sony isn't trying to get a piece of the pie? They went out of their way to create Blue Ray outside of the DVD consortium forum. That forum is in place for a reason, to keep things unified and to prevent these exact things from happening. Sony's been pushing their own proprietary formats forever. UMD, Mini Disc (HDD based players are so much better/easier), Memory Stick (they could have conformed to flash like everyone else), and now Blue Ray.

If they just stuck to the forum and presented their format with the consensus of everyone, we wouldn't have this mess. Instead they wanted more cash, just like everyone else, and went against the unified forum to have Blue Ray go head on. Yes it's the slightly more advanced hardware but I want Sony to crash and burn for this, so they're put back in their place and don't have this idiotic rational that they can do whatever the hell they want and think that what they do dictates the industry.

 

[Warm Machine]

Tobhiba just wants a piece of the pie in any and everything. SED + HD DVD. If only their other products would have better quality control.

HD DVD is inferior due to total disk capacity. I hope they it handed to them if they try to push their format and forgo talks of some kind of compromise.

Sony is just as bad as Toshiba if not more so. They always go for the proprietary formats.

HD-DVD can be expanded to 45 GB now. Even a regular DVD can hold a full length 1080p movie using WMV 9 compression. I like Blu-Ray too and really I just want a singular format decided upon so I can start using my HDTV for what it is made for.

 

[maximum360]

I'm definitely not pro Sony on this one really. For all I care they can go both crash and burn. It just so happens that they have the better tech this round. Lesser of the evils I guess.

 

[pestul]

Is revenue sharing back on the table? What about the cap?

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

I just saw a potential cost analysis, and that really pushed me in favor of the HD DVD. BRDs may come up being VERY expensivem due to low production rate and higher manufacturing/refit costs. I'm not down with Japanese-level pricing in America. Not sure about you guys, but the lower the cost of the movie, the better.

And after, say, 20GB to 25GB it REALLY doesn't matter. You can fit 3 or 4 full length 1080i movies in 25GB, plus features (With the proper encoding).

 

[Pimpwerx]

This is so sad, b/c neither will win if they keep this stalemate. Trying to push an HD video format on competing platforms is gonna be a lot tougher with DVD well-entrenched. What motivation is there for someone to upgrade when the formats are confused? Fucking Toshiba should just concede their inferior product and hop on the bandwagon. It's gonna be hard enough convincing people to make the upgrade. A unified standard makes it much easier. And BRD >> HD-DVD. Sony should really try and make the deal sweet enough for Toshiba to get in bed, b/c this is the best thing for everyone involved. If they can't unify the formats, we're gonna be stuck with DVD for a while. Even if there are 100M BRDs in PS3's, it'll still be an uphill climb. PEACE.

 

[kaching]

And you think Sony isn't trying to get a piece of the pie? They went out of their way to create Blue Ray outside of the DVD consortium forum. That forum is in place for a reason, to keep things unified and to prevent these exact things from happening. <snip>

Sony isn't pushing a proprietary format by themselves. When Blu-Ray was initially put forward, there was a founding group of CE manufacturers behind it that included Sony. The Blu-ray Association now consist of many of the very same companies that are also part of the DVD forum. It is a consortium just like the DVD forum is. The DVD forum didn't have any specific mandate about future formats and they've done very little to stop the proliferation of the multiple recordable/rewritable DVD formats that currently exist.

 

[Pimpwerx]

I just saw a potential cost analysis, and that really pushed me in favor of the HD DVD. BRDs may come up being VERY expensivem due to low production rate and higher manufacturing/refit costs. I'm not down with Japanese-level pricing in America. Not sure about you guys, but the lower the cost of the movie, the better.

And after, say, 20GB to 25GB it REALLY doesn't matter. You can fit 3 or 4 full length 1080i movies in 25GB, plus features (With the proper encoding).

This shortsighted thinking landed us in this predicament in the first place.

1. Upgrading plants will be the majority of the cost for both HD-DVD and BRD. Apparently, you can retrofit current plants for a fair savings, but the production capacity will pale compared to all-new plants. So it's a red herring by HD-DVD advocates.

2. BRD has much more capacity than HD-DVD, and a much higher ceiling. This is about more than 1080i. HDTV standards go up to 1080p. If we're gonna have a video format for at least another 10 years, it sure as hell better support progressive output at that resolution, otherwise we're gonna be doing this whole stupid song and dance again by like 2010/2015. It's better to future-proof this format, and BRD is the obvious winner here.

3. BRD is flat out better tech. There's nothing HD-DVD has on BRD besides the supposed manufacturing costs. But that's bullshit, b/c once capacity production gets in full swing for any optical medium, costs are almost always cents on the dollar. So who cares what the manufacturers are paying when it'll all cost them mere cents per disc in a year or two anyway?

There is honestly no defense for HD-DVD unless you make discs yourself. The end user should know that BRD is better in just about every way possible. Sony has to convince Toshiba to come on board, b/c leaving the formats split is just the wrong thing to do. Both sides will lose miserably if they can't reach an agreement. I think almost everyone agreed that going with the physical BRD and the Toshiba software and name "HD-DVD" was the best compromise. Why the idiots in charge of this decision can't wrap their little heads around this is beyond me. PEACE.

 

[Tenacious-V]

This is so sad, b/c neither will win if they keep this stalemate. Trying to push an HD video format on competing platforms is gonna be a lot tougher with DVD well-entrenched. What motivation is there for someone to upgrade when the formats are confused? Fucking Toshiba should just concede their inferior product and hop on the bandwagon. It's gonna be hard enough convincing people to make the upgrade. A unified standard makes it much easier. And BRD >> HD-DVD. Sony should really try and make the deal sweet enough for Toshiba to get in bed, b/c this is the best thing for everyone involved. If they can't unify the formats, we're gonna be stuck with DVD for a while. Even if there are 100M BRDs in PS3's, it'll still be an uphill climb. PEACE.

I think BD's gonna crash if they go head to head, and IMO I'll be glad it happens. I don't wanna have to pay something like $30 for a movie, just because BD costs more to make. HD-DVD is already at 45GB for a triple layer disc, that alone already voids BD's advantage of size. Yes BD can scale up to 200GB but that will never be used for consumer video. Double layer would be the most likely highest BD will be used for in movies, and that's 50GB. Far short of the massive difference between the 2 formats now. That, along with HD-DVD's ability to place both a DVD layer and HD-DVD layer for both DVD/HD-DVD movies on one disc. That's another plus for HD-DVD. Add in the cost rational, and you have a winner on your hands. IMO Blue Ray should never have been created, Sony should have just stuck to the DVD consortium and implemented some of their tech into a unified standard right off the bat. None of this going against the forum to create your own proprietary format. I say BD should burn, and Sony should learn a lesson.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

This shortsighted thinking landed us in this predicament in the first place.

1. Upgrading plants will be the majority of the cost for both HD-DVD and BRD. Apparently, you can retrofit current plants for a fair savings, but the production capacity will pale compared to all-new plants. So it's a red herring by HD-DVD advocates.

2. BRD has much more capacity than HD-DVD, and a much higher ceiling. This is about more than 1080i. HDTV standards go up to 1080p. If we're gonna have a video format for at least another 10 years, it sure as hell better support progressive output at that resolution, otherwise we're gonna be doing this whole stupid song and dance again by like 2010/2015. It's better to future-proof this format, and BRD is the obvious winner here.

3. BRD is flat out better tech. There's nothing HD-DVD has on BRD besides the supposed manufacturing costs. But that's bullshit, b/c once capacity production gets in full swing for any optical medium, costs are almost always cents on the dollar. So who cares what the manufacturers are paying when it'll all cost them mere cents per disc in a year or two anyway?

There is honestly no defense for HD-DVD unless you make discs yourself. The end user should know that BRD is better in just about every way possible. Sony has to convince Toshiba to come on board, b/c leaving the formats split is just the wrong thing to do. Both sides will lose miserably if they can't reach an agreement. I think almost everyone agreed that going with the physical BRD and the Toshiba software and name "HD-DVD" was the best compromise. Why the idiots in charge of this decision can't wrap their little heads around this is beyond me. PEACE.

But if costs begin at, say, 40+ dollars, it will most likely NOT catch on enough to be cents on the dollar, even if uncontested by HD-DVD. After a certain point, if the length of your movie is under, say, 4 hours, at 1080p it's irrelevant if your media goes over, say, 40GB. I definitely want a Blu-Ray recordable/rewritable drive, but I much prefer HD DVD for movies.

 

[aaaaa0]

Estimates are that a triple layer 45GB HD DVD costs roughly 20% more than dual layer DVD9.

DVD9 right now is a fraction of what single layer BD costs.

Toshiba is hell bent on integrating the triple layer spec and shipping triple-layer capable players by Dec this year.

Draw your own conclusions.

 

[Warm Machine]

HD-DVD does support 1080p. Right now you can buy WMV9 versions of certain movies on a regular sized DVD that are in 1080p. Sure, the bitrate suffers but the image is surpisingly beautiful. If they can do that on a regular DVD then the extra capacity on a HD-DVD will surely be even more impressive.

 

[Mrbob]

Blu-ray in PS3.

Blu-ray wins.

 

[Dragmire]

I would think the argument would go beyond just total capacity. There's cost and backwards compatibilty with DVD players. To me, being able to play HD-DVD on a DVD player is a bigger deciding factor. People can buy HD-DVD movies before they even invest in a player and a high definition TV. It opens up the future of the format and simplifies the adoption process. No more re-buying movies a la VHS tapes to DVD's.

 

[retardboy]

Who the heck cares who wins? 45gb Hddvd... 50 gb Bluray... I seriously don't care. Just come out with one now and let it be cheap. Whichever reaches 200 bucks a machine first wins my money.

 

[Suikoguy]

Blu-ray in PS3.

Blu-ray wins.

Hehe, true
Toshiba will regret that descison

If the PS3 plays HD Movies, there is no way to compete with a platform that gets an automatic 40+ million.

 

[Beer Monkey]

From today's WSJ (excerpt):

Viacom Inc.'s Paramount Pictures, which had committed to releasing more than 20 titles on the HD-DVD brand starting in the fourth quarter, now won't release any in the quarter, according to a person familiar with the matter. General Electric Co.'s NBC Universal plans to release about a dozen HD-DVD titles in the fourth quarter, scaling back from the 16 titles it had announced in January.

Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Home Video, the biggest backer of the format, says its exact plans are up in the air, as it waits to see whether a compromise is reached between the rival formats. "If there is a unification of formats, we would want to work toward that," said Jim Cardwell, president of Warner Home Video, who didn't rule out a holiday-season launch for Warner movies on HD-DVD.

Warren Lieberfarb, a consultant to HD-DVD backers, characterized rollout efforts as "no big deal" and added that "there was never a rock-solid date about the fourth quarter."

If Warner is saying there might be a merger, the odds of such an event just went up by orders of magnitude.

 

[sonycowboy]

Viacom Inc.'s Paramount Pictures, which had committed to releasing more than 20 titles on the HD-DVD brand starting in the fourth quarter, now won't release any in the quarter, according to a person familiar with the matter. General Electric Co.'s NBC Universal plans to release about a dozen HD-DVD titles in the fourth quarter, scaling back from the 16 titles it had announced in January.

Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Home Video, the biggest backer of the format, says its exact plans are up in the air, as it waits to see whether a compromise is reached between the rival formats. "If there is a unification of formats, we would want to work toward that," said Jim Cardwell, president of Warner Home Video, who didn't rule out a holiday-season launch for Warner movies on HD-DVD.

Warren Lieberfarb, a consultant to HD-DVD backers, characterized rollout efforts as "no big deal" and added that "there was never a rock-solid date about the fourth quarter."

I just wrote about the unlikely Q4 HD-DVD launch in the Blu-Ray DRM thread. Add Paramount backing out completely and WB stating the date is unsteady and I'm even more convinced it ain't happening. Here's hoping they recognize that unification is an absolute necessity for these formats to have any hope at market acceptance. There are two many other technologies around the corner and two few folks with HDTV's too be trying to segment, confuse, and paralyze the audience.

 

[Beer Monkey]

It's bad enough that the millions of early adopters with component or plain DVI inputs (but no HDMI/HDCP) won't be able to watch high-def disc on their sets. Throw a format war in the mix and it'll be many, many years for these formats to achieve mainstream penetration.

 

[fiddlestick]

blu-ray sounds cooler and is therefor better

 

[Ponn]

Blu-ray in PS3.

Blu-ray wins.

Thread over. I think the new formats are trying to be pushed way too soon and people are going to much more reluctant than with DVD to buy another standalone player. On the other hand if it's built into that new PS3 you just gotta have already.....

I still don't think Blu-Ray will ever reach DVD status though, just too many consumers that won't have the eye to spot the differences.

 

[DCX]

Has anyone considered the pricing on these mediums? I mean it's now and some people complain about DVD prices how much will a standard BluRay movie cost VS a HD DVD movie? I'm sorry but i don't see myself paying 35-40 bucks for a movie, they can stick it up thier respective asses..

DCX

 

[teiresias]

Warner and the rest of the HD-DVD group are just realizing how S.O.L they are, with statements from disc producers and Fox. They had their chance months ago to go through with unification talks, with the Blu-Ray group prepared to give significant concessions at the application layer of the specification, but Warner thought it would puff out its chest and try and play the big game.

It's falling apart on them and now they magically start talking all nicely about unification? Screw Warner, screw HD-DVD, it deserves to fall apart and be squashed and never see the light of day. They had their chance, they wasted it, I hope the format burns for it.

The HD-DVD camp falling apart and the studios initially backing the stupid format realizing its falling apart and backing Blu-Ray exclusively instead is just as good as any unification.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I mean it's now and some people complain about DVD prices

Who the fuck complains about DVD prices? DVDs are dirt cheap. Go back to the days of VHS and laserdisc, you actually paid more and got less. I'm stunned at the low street price of many DVDs.

 

[Nerevar]

Warner and the rest of the HD-DVD group are just realizing how S.O.L they are, with statements from disc producers and Fox. They had their chance months ago to go through with unification talks, with the Blu-Ray group prepared to give significant concessions at the application layer of the specification, but Warner thought it would puff out its chest and try and play the big game.

uhm, I don't want to sound like I'm defending HD-DVD, but how are you so sure it was the HD-DVD group that tanked the unification talks? I'm pretty sure both sides were willing to make concessions, but neither was able to come up with an adequate royalty-sharing scheme that would make sense for both. I hope they both fail, personally, because neither truly offers enough of an improvement over current DVDs to make them worthwhile. Let's get a "true" next-gen technology (like HVD) before we introduce HD movies.

 

[sonycowboy]

Has anyone considered the pricing on these mediums? I mean it's now and some people complain about DVD prices how much will a standard BluRay movie cost VS a HD DVD movie? I'm sorry but i don't see myself paying 35-40 bucks for a movie, they can stick it up thier respective asses..

DCX

Likely:

DVD $19.99 (you can find it for $15)
HD-DVD $29.99 (you can find it for $25)
Blu-Ray $29.99 (you can find it for $25)

If you don't think that a 1080p version with better audio is worth the price difference, you can keep going with DVD if you'd like.

 

[Beer Monkey]

neither truly offers enough of an improvement over current DVDs

Six times the resolution, increased color bandwidth, less compression, advanced codecs, lossless audio, and tons of storage for extras and such. Not much of an improvement there.

Hell, it's way more of an improvement than most users would ever see or hear.

 

[Ponn]

uhm, I don't want to sound like I'm defending HD-DVD, but how are you so sure it was the HD-DVD group that tanked the unification talks? I'm pretty sure both sides were willing to make concessions, but neither was able to come up with an adequate royalty-sharing scheme that would make sense for both. I hope they both fail, personally, because neither truly offers enough of an improvement over current DVDs to make them worthwhile. Let's get a "true" next-gen technology (like HVD) before we introduce HD movies.

Honestly the best a DVD can do is 480p and we are just now getting 1080p TV's to the market. I personally am ready for High Def movies on Blu-Ray and have been dying for them so bring them the fuck on. It sucks when my damn HD channels on cable are HD but my DVD's aren't.

 

[Nerevar]

Six times the resolution, increased color bandwidth, less compression, advanced codecs, lossless audio, and tons of storage for extras and such. Not much of an improvement there.

Hell, it's way more of an improvement than most users would ever see or hear.

that's almost completely software-side, not hardware side. I'm talking strictly technical advantages here. Practically speaking (given reasonable manufacturability yields for pricing), you're topping out at 2 layers for both HD-DVD and BRD. That's really not that much more data than a 9-GB DVD can hold. Why push these out now when you've got potential formats offering up to 200 GB a layer? The real reason this is happening now is because the companies involved want stricter DRM and another opportunity to sell you their back catalogue of movies.

Honestly the best a DVD can do is 480p and we are just now getting 1080p TV's to the market

DVDs can do much better than 480p. Ever watch the T2 720p WMV DVD? It looks amazing. But it's a software limitation, not a hardware one.

 

[Ponn]

that's almost completely software-side, not hardware side. I'm talking strictly technical advantages here. Practically speaking (given reasonable manufacturability yields for pricing), you're topping out at 2 layers for both HD-DVD and BRD. That's really not that much more data than a 9-GB DVD can hold. Why push these out now when you've got potential formats offering up to 200 GB a layer? The real reason this is happening now is because the companies involved want stricter DRM and another opportunity to sell you their back catalogue of movies.

What walmart consumer would give a crap about that?

 

[sonycowboy]

that's almost completely software-side, not hardware side. I'm talking strictly technical advantages here. Practically speaking (given reasonable manufacturability yields for pricing), you're topping out at 2 layers for both HD-DVD and BRD. That's really not that much more data than a 9-GB DVD can hold. Why push these out now when you've got potential formats offering up to 200 GB a layer? The real reason this is happening now is because the companies involved want stricter DRM and another opportunity to sell you their back catalogue of movies.



DVDs can do much better than 480p. Ever watch the T2 720p WMV DVD? It looks amazing. But it's a software limitation, not a hardware one.

and if we wait another 5 years, maybe HVD will be commercially viable, but studios, retailers, & millions of consumers with HDTV's don't want to wait. Technology ALWAYS gets better and you can't just say wait til tomorrow, because tomorrow never comes.

 

[AB 101]

I still don't think Blu-Ray will ever reach DVD status though, just too many consumers that won't have the eye to spot the differences.

Well, then they are just fucking blind then.


I recall DVD's being in the $30 to $40 range when they first came out.

 

[DCX]

Who the fuck complains about DVD prices? DVDs are dirt cheap. Go back to the days of VHS and laserdisc, you actually paid more and got less. I'm stunned at the low street price of many DVDs.

Ok, come talk to me when you are paying over $200 for the BluRay version of the Sopranos or The X-Files season sets..

DCX

 

[krypt0nian]

Yo Sonycowboy,

do you have a breakdown on who sits on which camp at this point? It seems like the tide has moved toward blu-ray but I'd love to see the chart.

 

[teiresias]

Considering I'm not sure that any season of the X-Files if perhaps only the last two, have source material for a hi-def transfer I highly doubt you should be buying them on a HD format in the first place. Not sure about Sopranos though.

 

[AB 101]

Ok, come talk to me when you are paying over $200 for the BluRay version of the Sopranos or The X-Files season sets..

DCX

Well, it will be quite a while until we see TV show box sets go HD.

And anyways, who really gives a fuck about those being in HD anyways.

Its the big action movies that I want in HD.

I want it now. Me and my DLP are fucking waiting.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Ok, come talk to me when you are paying over $200 for the BluRay version of the Sopranos or The X-Files season sets..

Well, first of all, The X-Files (like Trek TNG and many other shows) were shot with film but all of the post work was done in standard-definition. There's no higher resolution version to run through a telecine or anything like that, so don't like for true high-def of these shows ever.

Second of all, season sets aren't going to quadruple in price with the new formats. Not gonna happen. You won't even see huge season sets until a couple of years down the road when they've got the per-disc costs under control. Look for the emphasis to stay on movies for the first two years or more.

 

[DCX]

Well, it will be quite a while until we see TV show box sets go HD.

And anyways, who really gives a fuck about those being in HD anyways.

Its the big action movies that I want in HD.

I want it now. Me and my DLP are fucking waiting.

Yeah who gave a fuck before DVD, you never really saw TV show box sets on VHS did you? If you have a HDTV you want to see EVERYTHING in HD...even your local news...

DCX

 

[Ponn]

Ok, come talk to me when you are paying over $200 for the BluRay version of the Sopranos or The X-Files season sets..

DCX

Have you priced a season of Star Trek TNG on DVD yet? Almost 200 bucks, for a season of hour episodes though and on multiple discs. Now when they are making entire season sets of Star Trek TNG on one Blu-ray disc and charging 200 bucks for it I might bitch. But I doubt they would do that.

 

[Sanjuro]

Just give me a high definition Batman Begins disc for any of the new consoles and I will be happy. I Don't give a fuck who makes it or what its for.