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[goodcow]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/77f2d8ee-8059-11d9-bd50-00000e2511c8.html

Chinese demand set to push Opec to limit
By Javier Blas and Kevin Morrison in London
Published: February 16 2005 20:29 | Last updated: February 16 2005 20:29

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries signalled a significant tightening of oil markets towards the end of this year, warning on Wednesday it would have to pump close to its maximum capacity next winter to meet rising demand from China against the backdrop of slowing Russian production.

The cartel said it would have to supply at least 30.1m barrels a day in the fourth quarter of the year to balance the market, an increase of 630,000 b/d from its previous estimate in January and 1.1m b/d up from the December figure. The International Energy Agency forecasts Opec's capacity will be 31.5m b/d by mid-2005.

Opec pumped at capacity last autumn as it tried to catch up with a big increase in demand. But the sharp production increase reduced spare capacity to a 30-year low, helping push oil prices to a nominal record of more than $55 a barrel last October.

The increasing reliance on Opec will make the market more vulnerable to political shocks in the Middle East, analysts said. Oil prices briefly surged more than $1 on Wednesday amid conflicting reports of an explosion in Iran's Bushehr province, where Tehran is building a nuclear reactor. “The cushion to confront an unexpected shock will be very limited,” said Antonio Merino, chief economist of Repsol YPF.

In spite of raising its forecast for demand, Opec is leaning towards a cut in production at its March meeting, to avoid an increase in oil stocks during the second quarter. Opec increased its forecast for global demand by 80,000 b/d for 2005 and forecast a further 13,000 b/d fall in non-Opec supply, largely due to a slowdown in Russia production.

 

[Do The Mario]

I was under the impression China was going to take the nuclear option in near feature, this can’t be good for global warming.

 

[Azih]

Holy shit can we NOW please invest in non fossil fuel sources of energy? Please?

 

[Inumaru]

I was under the impression China was going to take the nuclear option in near feature, this can’t be good for global warming.

They're trying, but reactors take an extremely long time to build. I remember reading something about their novel fail-safe, modular reactor design; I don't remember the exact number but it was something like they were hoping to have 8% of the country's power come from nuclear by 2030, iirc. I remember being surprised by how far off and small that percentage seemed to me, but apparently they're considered world-leading in their commitment to nuclear power. Also their reactor design is amazingly simple, and is apparently meltdown proof in the theoretical sense (barring sabotage, I assume).

A huge amount of China's power requirements come from their industrial sector, places like Guangzho (sp?), Hong Kong, etc. where they're manufacturing just about everything for the rest of the free world. Last summer they were fighting with blackouts while my wife was there at the Canton Trade Fair. Scary stuff.

 

[Phoenix]

I was under the impression China was going to take the nuclear option in near feature, this can’t be good for global warming.

Its even worse because Kyoto considers China to be a developing nation and as such aren't required to adhere to emissions standards

 

[Eric-GCA]

Holy shit can we NOW please invest in non fossil fuel sources of energy? Please?

I'm always up for nuclear power, but the "enviro-nuts" are always so afraid of it.

 

[NLB2]

I was under the impression China was going to take the nuclear option in near feature, this can’t be good for global warming.

Nuclear power is actually one of the most expensive forms of power. Its mainly been used to create weapons.

 

[tedtropy]

I'm always up for nuclear power, but the "enviro-nuts" are always so afraid of it.

Yeah, unfortunately people hear the phrase 'nuclear power' and the word Chernobyl instantly springs to mind. One incredibly poorly managed plant has permanently tainted the image of nuclear power. There hasn't been a new plant in the US since, what, like the late 70's?

 

[golem]

Nuclear power is actually one of the most expensive forms of power. Its mainly been used to create weapons.

Current operating costs are the lowest ever - 1.82 cents per kilowatt-hour versus 2.13 cents for coal-fired plants and 3.69 cents for natural gas.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.02/nuclear.html

 

[Fresh Prince]

I think he's talking about design and start-up costs.

 

[Piecake]

I was under the impression China was going to take the nuclear option in near feature, this can’t be good for global warming.

What is the current situation of that massive dam China built? And whats the forcasted percentage of overall power that the damn will produce?