Support NeoGAF

[Broshnat]

Here's my early guesstimates. Feel free to correct me / notify me of any ommisions...

Week Ending 28th Nov
2250k Dragon Quest VIII
50k Mario Party 6 (145k)
45k Naruto 3 (135k)
40k Momotarou USA (165k)
35k Kingdom Hearts: COM (280k)
20k Made In Wario 2 (260k)
15k Mario Tennis GC (265k)
15k Pokemon Emerald (1150k)
15k Zelda: Minish Cap (155k)


Week Ending 5th Dec
425k Dragon Quest VIII (2675k)
205k Super Mario 64 DS
145k Touch Made In Wario
40k Mario Party 6 (185k)
35k Naruto 3 (170k)
30k Momotarou USA (195k)
25k Kingdom Hearts: COM (305k)
20k Made In Wario 2 (280k)
15k Mario Tennis GC (280k)
15k Pokemon Emerald (1165k)
15k Zelda: Minish Cap (170k)

Week Ending 12th Dec
210k Rockman EXE 5
195k Dragon Quest VIII (2870k)
135k Ridge Racers
105k Everybody's Golf Portable
95k Super Mario 64 DS (300k)
85k Touch Made In Wario (230k)
80k Mobile Suit Gundam vs GC
35k Mario Party 6 (210k)
30k Naruto 3 (200k)
30k Momotarou USA (225k)
20k Kingdom Hearts: COM (325k)
20k Made In Wario 2 (300k)
15k Mario Tennis GC (295k)
15k Pokemon Emerald (1180k)
15k Zelda: Minish Cap (195k)

Week Ending 19th Dec
475k Metal Gear Solid 3
450k Tales Of Rebirth
160k Dragon Quest VIII (3030k)
150k Rockman EXE 5 (340k)
140k Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat
125k Super Robot Wars GC
115k Metal Gear Acid
105k Shin Sangoku Musou
90k Super Mario 64 DS (390k)
80k Touch Made In Wario (310k)
65k Mario Party 6 (275k)
60k Ridge Racers (195k)
55k Everybody's Golf Portable (160k)
45k Naruto 3 (245k)
40k Momotarou USA (265k)
35k Mario Tennis GC (360k)
30k Made In Wario 2 (330k)
25k Kingdom Hearts: COM (350k)
25k Mario Tennis GC (320k)
25k Pokemon Emerald (1205k)
20k Zelda: Minish Cap (215k)


Week Ending 26th Dec
160k Rockman EXE 5 (500k)
150k Dragon Quest VIII (3180k)
140k Super Mario 64 DS (530k)
135k Mario Party 6 (410k)
130k Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat (270k)
110k Touch Made In Wario (420k)
110k Metal Gear Solid 3 (585k)
85k Tales Of Rebirth (535k)
75k Naruto 3 (320k)
70k Ridge Racers (265k)
65k Everybody's Golf Portable (225k)
60k Shin Sangoku Musou (165k)
55k Made In Wario 2 (385k)
55k Metal Gear Acid (170k)
55k Momotarou USA (320k)
50k Super Robot Wars GC (175k)
50k Mario Tennis GC (370k)
45k Pokemon Emerald (1250k)
45k Kingdom Hearts: COM (395k)
40k Zelda: Minish Cap (255k)



Week Ending 2nd Jan
575k Gran Turismo 4
130k Dragon Quest VIII (3310k)
125k Rockman EXE 5 (625k)
110k Super Mario 64 DS (640k)
105k Mario Party 6 (515k)
90k Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat (360k)
85k Touch Made In Wario (505k)
70k Metal Gear Solid 3 (655k)
65k Ridge Racers (330k)
60k Naruto 3 (380k)
55k Tales Of Rebirth (590k)
55k Shin Sangoku Musou (220k)
50k Made In Wario 2 (435k)
50k Everybody's Golf Portable (275k)
45k Momotarou USA (365k)
45k Mario Tennis GC (415k)
40k Pokemon Emerald (1290k)
40k Kingdom Hearts: COM (435k)
40k Metal Gear Acid (210k)
35k Super Robot Wars GC (210k)
35k Zelda: Minish Cap (290k)


Week Ending 9th Jan
170k Gran Turismo 4 (745k)
110k Dragon Quest VIII (3420k)
105k Rockman EXE 5 (730k)
85k Super Mario 64 DS (725k)
80k Mario Party 6 (595k)
70k Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat (430k)
65k Touch Made In Wario (570k)
55k Metal Gear Solid 3 (710k)
50k Ridge Racers (380k)
45k Naruto 3 (425k)
45k Tales Of Rebirth (635k)
45k Shin Sangoku Musou (265k)
45k Pokemon Emerald (1335k)
40k Everybody's Golf Portable (315k)
40k Made In Wario 2 (475k)
40k Mario Tennis GC (455k)
35k Momotarou USA (400k)
35k Zelda: Minish Cap (325k)
30k Kingdom Hearts: COM (465k)
30k Super Robot Wars GC (240k)
25k Metal Gear Acid (235k)

Then back to normal numbers (ie 15-45k for these)...

 

[u_neek]

I really hope MGS3 sells well - it's the fucking best game i've played this generation!

 

[soundwave05]

I think obviously it's gonna be all Dragon Quest VIII.

I'm hoping Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat can find a nice audience if the game turns out as good as it looks.

Touch! Made In Wario might be able to usurp Mario 64 DS as the lead DS seller.

Ridge Racers and Dynasty Warriors will lead on the PSP.

 

[Doogdogg]

Don't expect DW8 to stayed that long as 90% of it sell power will be the launch weekend.

 

[Broshnat]

True to an extent, but it's less top-heavy than final fantasy. It'll hold well over xmas.

 

[madara]

Dang how sweet is that tales and DQ within few days, lucky japanese.

 

[gogogow]

The pre-orders of MGS reached 650k, so the first day should be more than 650k.

 

[Broshnat]

The pre-orders of MGS reached 650k, so the first day should be more than 650k.

Hmmm... that's retail orders, ie how many copies will be shipped to retailers at launch. I don't expect it to do much differently to MGS2 which did about 450k first week and 800k total....

 

[mrklaw]

75k Ridge Racers (380k)

If PSP launch numbers are really only 200k, then you won't see numbers anywhere near that. Maybe 50% uptake, so 200k if they ship extra units in the 2 weeks after launch, 100k if they don't.

 

[suikodan]

I stopped caring about what Japan had to say when their companies started to release games in NA first...

 

[sonycowboy]

If PSP launch numbers are really only 200k, then you won't see numbers anywhere near that. Maybe 50% uptake, so 200k if they ship extra units in the 2 weeks after launch, 100k if they don't.

They're supposed to, somehow, get to 500k PSP units shipped by the end of the year.

 

[Gaz Ultra!]

I think you're being too optimistic on Jungle Beat, but I think you have Super Mario DS and Mario Party 6 spot on. Metal Gear 3 might surprise you with opening week sales of much closer to 750K, whilst Dragon VIII could stumble before the 3 million milestone.

Very good though.

 

[Broshnat]

I'd be very suprised if MGS3 did more than 550k in it's first week as a maximum. It may even be outgunned by Tales of Rebirth...

Let's see how close I am in the coming weeks.... :lol

 

[cvxfreak]

Any numbers for Super Robot Taisen GC?

 

[Broshnat]

Any numbers for Super Robot Taisen GC?

Have added a few others... what else is there coming out on PS2?

 

[Code_Link]

Here's my early guesstimates. Feel free to correct me / notify me of any ommisions...

15k Zelda: Minish Camp (155k)

Minish Camp? Is that the MMORPG version?

 

[Broshnat]

Minish Camp? Is that the MMORPG version?

Typo.... sorry!

 

[Bebpo]

Decent predictions, though I think you are really low-balling the GT4 sales. I expect near 1 million opening week.

 

[Broshnat]

Decent predictions, though I think you are really low-balling the GT4 sales. I expect near 1 million opening week.

No way!

650k max i reckon...

 

[Broshnat]

I dunno why people think MGS3 will sell well over a million in Japan! Maybe I'm wrong, but MGS did about 700k and MGS2 about 800k.

I'd be very suprised

 

[Broshnat]

Looking good on the DQVIII prediction so far then. I think it'll fall short of 4m though.

 

[Broshnat]

Here's my early guesstimates. Feel free to correct me / notify me of any ommisions...

Week Ending 28th Nov
2250k Dragon Quest VIII
50k Mario Party 6 (145k)
45k Naruto 3 (135k)
40k Momotarou USA (165k)
35k Kingdom Hearts: COM (280k)
20k Made In Wario 2 (260k)
15k Mario Tennis GC (265k)
15k Pokemon Emerald (1150k)
15k Zelda: Minish Cap (155k)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

platform title publisher this week total store availability
1 PS2 Dragon Quest VIII Square Enix 2,236,000 2,236,000 Plentiful
3 PS2 Momotarou Dentetsu USA Hudson 46,000 168,000 Normal
4 GC Mario Party 6 Nintendo 45,000 142,000 Normal
6 GC NARUTO: Gekitou Ninja Taisen! 3 Tomy 42,000 131,000 N/A
7 GBA Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories Square Enix 23,000 237,000 N/A
10 GBA Pokemon Emerald Pokemon 18,900 1,134,000 N/A
13 GBA Mawaru Made in Wario Nintendo 15,000 268,000 N/A
15 GC Mario Tennis GC Nintendo 13,000 250,000 N/A

Not bad, not bad

 

[Broshnat]

I may lower my Super Mario 64 DS prediction a tad to 170k, and up Sawaru to 155k

 

[Idiot Member]

I noticed your expectations for GT4 are pretty low...

 

[Miburou]

I really hope MGS3 cracks a million in Japan. MGS2 nearly did that.

 

[Broshnat]

I noticed your expectations for GT4 are pretty low...

Why is that low?!!!


I think in hindsight, my PSP numbers have been a little over the top since only 500k PSP's are supposed to be being shipped this year. I'd bring them all down to about 70% of what I put originally....

 

[Broshnat]

Week Ending 5th Dec
425k Dragon Quest VIII (2675k)
205k Super Mario 64 DS
145k Touch Made In Wario
40k Mario Party 6 (185k)
35k Naruto 3 (170k)
30k Momotarou USA (195k)
25k Kingdom Hearts: COM (305k)
20k Made In Wario 2 (280k)
15k Mario Tennis GC (280k)
15k Pokemon Emerald (1165k)
15k Zelda: Minish Cap (170k)

I may lower my Super Mario 64 DS prediction a tad to 170k, and up Sawaru to 155k

Media Create Software Sales: 29 Nov - 5 Dec
platform title publisher this week total
1 PS2 Dragon Quest VIII: Sora to Umi to Daichi to Norowareshi Himigime Square Enix 476,281 2,643,353
2 DS Super Mario 64 DS Nintendo 151,373 new
3 DS Sawaru Made in Wario Nintendo 148,825 new
4 DS Pokemon Dash Pokemon 56,337 new
5 DS Daigasso! Band Brothers Nintendo 33,911 new
6 GBA Power Pro Kun Pocket 7 Konami 30,410 new
7 GC Mario Party 6 Nintendo 29,959 178,352
8 DS Kime no Tame Nara Kimi Shineru Sega 27,250 new
9 DS Chokkan Hitofude Nintendo 25,415 new
10 GC NARUTO: Gekitou Ninja Taisen! 3 Tomy 22,799 183,834

Hmmmm, seems some games are dropping off quicker than expected :-(

 

[Broshnat]

Week Ending 12th Dec
210k Rockman EXE 5
195k Dragon Quest VIII (2870k)
135k Ridge Racers
105k Everybody's Golf Portable
95k Super Mario 64 DS (300k)
85k Touch Made In Wario (230k)
80k Mobile Suit Gundam vs GC
35k Mario Party 6 (210k)
30k Naruto 3 (200k)
30k Momotarou USA (225k)
20k Kingdom Hearts: COM (325k)
20k Made In Wario 2 (300k)
15k Mario Tennis GC (295k)
15k Pokemon Emerald (1180k)
15k Zelda: Minish Cap (195k)

01 PS2 Dragon Quest VIII 200,000／2,996,000
02 PS2 Mobile Suit Gundam vs Z Gundam 186,000
03 PS2 Daito Giken Koushiki Pachi-Slot Simulator Yoshimune 176,000
04 GBA Rockman EXE 5 66,000
05 PSP Everybody's Golf Portable 66,000
06 PSP Ridge Racers 60,000
07 DS Sawaru Made In Wario 56,000／174,000
08 DS Super Marui 64 DS 52,000／172,000
09 GC Mario Party 6 39,000／211,000
10 GBA Yoshi no Banyuuin Ryoku 34,000
11 GBA Pokemon Emerald 32,000／1193000
12 PS2 Taikou no Tatsjuin 5 29,000
13 PS2 Kamen Rider Tsurugi 25,000
14 PS2 FIFA Total Football 2 24,000
15 DS Pokemon Dash 23,000／73,000
16 GC Naruto: Ninja Wars 3 22,000／177,000
17 PS2 Ratchet & Clank 3 20,000／123,000
18 PS2 Futakoi 20,000
19 GBA Power Pro Kun Pocket７ 20,000／59,000
20 GBA Korokke! Great! 18,000
21 GC Mobile Suit Gundam vs Z Gundam 18,000
22 PS2 Tennis no Oji-Sama: Rush & Dream 17,000
23 DS Daigasso! Band Brothers 17,000／49,000
24 GBA Mawaru Made In Wario 15,000／297,000
25 PS2 Momotarou Dentei USA 15,000／205,000
26 PS2 Winning Eleven Tactics 14,000
27 GBA ふたりはプリキュア　ありえな～い！夢の国は大迷宮 12,000
28 PSP Armoured Core: Formula Front 11,000
29 GC Mario Tennis GC 11,000／271,000
30 GBA Kingdom Hearts: Chain Of Memories 10,000／262,000

Hmmmm... a bit high with a lot of the games, and MSG and the pachislot game slipped through my net.

 

[Broshnat]

Hmmm... so just how close was I?

 

[TheTurtleTitan]

Is the ending week to Jan. 9th the last week for big shopping?