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[Luminoth-4545]

The tracked period will be June 2nd to June 8th, the Switch 2 launches on June 5th so that will be 4 days worth of sales. Remember Famitsu only tracks physical game sales so Digital only games will not be included. Here are the games I have chosen to predict.

Nintendo Switch 2 Hardware (Famitsu + Nintendo store): 1,225,000

Mario Kart World: 455,000
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma: 62,000
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy HD Remaster: 47,000
Cyberpunk 2077: 42,000
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut: 31,000
Street Fighter 6: 26,000
Sonic X Shadow Generations: 4,000

 

[Zathalus]

Probably more than 5.

 

[StueyDuck]

isn't it selling cheaper there? i expect big numbers for it (relative to japanese market)

 

[Zacfoldor]

They will sell how many they can make.

 

[LordOcidax]

Nintendo Switch 2 Hardware: 1,200,000
600K At retails
600K Direct sales from Nintendo

Mario Kart World: 600,000
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut: 23,000
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma: 40,000
Cyberpunk 2077: 55,000
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy HD Remaster: 40,000
Street Fighter 6: 30,000
Sonic X Shadow Generations: 3,000

 

[Luminoth-4545]

They will sell how many they can make.

A couple of days back and analyst estimated they will have 1.2 million for the Japanese market at launch, could be BS of course so making an accurate prediction is difficult.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Nintendo Switch 2 Hardware: 1,200,000
600K At retails
600K Direct sales from Nintendo

Mario Kart World: 600,000
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut: 23,000
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma: 40,000
Cyberpunk 2077: 55,000
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy HD Remaster: 40,000
Street Fighter 6: 30,000
Sonic X Shadow Generations: 3,000

So Nintendo has a huge percentage of the launch units?

 

[LordOcidax]

So Nintendo has a huge percentage of the launch units?

They have more than 2 million preorders, i think they go 50-50 with retailers.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

They have more than 2 million preorders, i think they go 50-50 with retailers.

That is weird, for OG Switch Famitsu tracks 99%, also how many bundles will determine how big Mario Kart World sales will be. Will Famitsu actually "count" it as a sale though, because it's a download code.

 

[LordOcidax]

That is weird, for OG Switch Famitsu tracks 99%, also how many bundles will determine how big Mario Kart World sales will be.

I think that Famitsu only tracks the sales from retailers, not Nintendo direct sales… But will see.

 

[Baemono]

Let's go bold and say 1,7 million for the first week

 

[Imtjnotu]

According to GigaBowser , it's somewhere in the hundreds of million for launch day

 

[TheChadOfGaming]

2.1million

 

[pulicat]

1.2 million at least and 800k for Famitsu.

 

[Astray]

According to GigaBowser , it's somewhere in the hundreds of million for launch day

If it's him saying then I believe it.

 

[Hookshot]

Don't know. Never know if Nintendo has given them millions or thousands knowing they'll sell millions there later on.

 

[LordCBH]

My prediction: somewhere between a lot and a shit ton.

 

[darrylgorn]

 

[Robb]

I have no clue tbh. But a lot of Switch 2 hardware and Mario Kart World software.

I definitely think they'll push +1M of Switch 2 at least.

 

[SomeNorseGuy]

At the Japanese price it's an easy buy. Here in Norway it's $696 for the base model, so I'll need a lot of incentive in the form of banger exclusives that interest me to pay up.

 

[Woopah]

Nintendo Switch 2 Hardware (Famitsu): 620,000

Mario Kart World: 420,000
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma: 80,000
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy HD Remaster: 40,000
Cyberpunk 2077: 21,000
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut: 40,000
Street Fighter 6: 19,000
Sonic X Shadow Generations: 3,000

isn't it selling cheaper there? i expect big numbers for it (relative to japanese market)

It's cheaper in terms of dollars, but that doesn't matter as people in Japan are paying in yen. It's the same as a launch PS5.

That is weird, for OG Switch Famitsu tracks 99%, also how many bundles will determine how big Mario Kart World sales will be. Will Famitsu actually "count" it as a sale though, because it's a download code.

Famitsu will count it, as its being sold in a store

 

[near]

Do we have hardware stock estimates yet?

 

[Moses85]

 

[LordOcidax]

Do we have hardware stock estimates yet?

Around 1.2 Million.

 

[near]

Around 1.2 Million.

Sorry, I meant internationally. I saw that in the OP.

Edit: I must be tired, that's OPs estimates anyway lol

 

[LordOcidax]

Sorry, I meant internationally. I saw that in the OP.

According to some reports between 4-5 Million.

 

[KU_]

Can we get Japan Switch 1 numbers?

 

[GigaBowser]

According to GigaBowser , it's somewhere in the hundreds of million for launch day

wwwwhhhhattt?? ahaha

will break record annnnd hatters buuuuuuut i nevers says thirs people @ and make lie because i winned poster of the yeer and becomed famous

Social Opinion Community  Post in thread 'NEOGAF POSTERS OF THE YEAR AWARD'

Apr 16, 2025

You might be too modest to say so GigaBowser but it's clearly you. Keep up the good work.

thank you my friends i am the spirit of christmas halloween gaming off topics annnd posters of the year awards ahaha

• GigaBowser

• 
• 
• 
• 

 

[Woopah]

Can we get Japan Switch 1 numbers?

Famitsu data at Switch launch week:

Switch - 330,637

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 186,379
1-2-Switch - 79,536
Super Bomberman R - 36,623
Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch - 25,606
Puyo Puyo Tetris - 12,854

 

[Zannegan]

They will sell how many they can make.

I'm in Japan right now. FWIW, the Toys R Us I walked into in the mall had several Switch 2's left, but only the region-locked Japanese editions. If those don't sell, Nintendo's going to have to pffer some kind of paid upgrade path to turn them into regular Switch 2s.

Pro controllers, cameras, and a few other accessories were sold out, but I did pick up an extra pair of joycon.

 

[Woopah]

I'm in Japan right now. FWIW, the Toys R Us I walked into in the mall had several Switch 2's left, but only the region-locked Japanese editions. If those don't sell, Nintendo's going to have to pffer some kind of paid upgrade path to turn them into regular Switch 2s.

Pro controllers, cameras, and a few other accessories were sold out, but I did pick up an extra pair of joycon.

Offering an upgrade path would undo the very thing this model was created to do, prevent exports.

The reason you only saw the Japanese model is that those are the only type available in stores. To get a multilanguage Switch 2 you have to go through Nintendo directly.

 

[Zannegan]

Offering an upgrade path would undo the very thing this model was created to do, prevent exports.

The reason you only saw the Japanese model is that those are the only type available in stores. To get a multilanguage Switch 2 you have to go through Nintendo directly.

Of course. The model is intended to make Switch 2 affordable on Nintendo's home turf in the face of a weakened yen, which I think is honestly a pretty great thing for them to do while also being business savvy.

I just meant *if* they were stuck with a bunch of stock after the launch rush, rather than taking those units back to repackage them, an upgrade would be a better/more economical path for all concerned. There are probably a good number of Japanese ganers who would prefer to be able to import western games or purchase games while traveling, even at the increased initial cost.

 

[Woopah]

Of course. The model is intended to make Switch 2 affordable on Nintendo's home turf in the face of a weakened yen, which I think is honestly a pretty great thing for them to do while also being business savvy.

I just meant *if* they were stuck with a bunch of stock after the launch rush, rather than taking those units back to repackage them, an upgrade would be a better/more economical path for all concerned. There are probably a good number of Japanese ganers who would prefer to be able to import western games or purchase games while traveling, even at the increased initial cost.

I would say just leave the leftover stock on store shelves. It'll get sold in the next few days anyway.

 

[Robb]

Nintendo Switch 2 Hardware (Famitsu + Nintendo store): 1,225,000

Mario Kart World: 455,000

Nintendo Switch 2 Hardware: 1,200,000

1.2 million at least

You guys were pretty spot on on the hardware it seems.

Mario Kart World: 600,000

This was a pretty good number too, even if it turned out too low (which is insane tbh).

 

[Topher]

I'm going to predict 947,931 sold

 

[Woopah]

Japan has a lot lower tolerance for late ports than what we all thought.

 

[hououinkyouma00]

947K is pretty good. That makes up about 30% of total units worldwide.

Also a roughly 82% attach rate for Mario Kart World!

 

[Gambit2483]

I'm going to predict 947,931 sold

Knivesamazing.gif

 

[Baemono]

Let's go bold and say 1,7 million for the first week

Welp I was too bold

 

[Musashipan]

That's 3 days right?
Not bad
Not bad at all
Poor haters