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[walking fiend]

So is the any chance in hell ETH will reach $300 again? I bought pretty high so i'm taking a loss regardless.

I haven't seen any analysis predicting the market crashing yet, most analysts expect the next wave to break the previous ATH, might take a while though? On a scale of 1 to 5, this is a wave of scale 2 [major 1 is driving the price upward]. The sooner we get to the bottom of this downward wave, the sooner we will start to see a rise in price.

If having the cash now is very important to you, take out your money. Even if you bought at $400 (I bought some there myself), you are looking at less than 50% loss if you sell now.

I personally believe there are very important life lessons to be learned once one starts trading and loses some money

 

[TheDoldrums]

GDAX sent email yesterday notifying people about the possible hard fork and that they are closing BTC trading down for few hours when it is supposed to happen.

They also said that they do not intend to support the possible new fork and if people want to be part of that, they should withdraw their BTC by july 31.

What they're really saying is that people won't have access to their coins on the BitcoinABC fork.

Any coins stored on a secure wallet will be valid on all forks. GDAX is making customers coins invalid on a fork. So yeah, definitely do not store any coins there. They're taking away some of the value of the coin from the customer, it's possible they could even sell the coins on the ABC fork themselves.

 

[Brandson]

I'm gonna sleep, kinda fun to wager what will happen by tomorrow, my take is a strongly bearish market:



Price highs matching with stochastic RSI 3-3-14 - time unit 30 minutes. K cross under D is an entry and vice versa. I expect the trend to last a couple of days

I'd agree with you, except for the Gemini wall, and that whales hold more ETH than they probably ever have. Still not pulled.

 

[Brandson]

My read is that it hangs around just above 200, maybe testing 190 and bouncing off, until new money enters and sends the price higher.

 

[Brandson]

A 3k sell wall on GDAX at $211 was just slowly eaten through.

 

[NiiloPielinen]

ETH is on the rise again, I wonder how high it will go this time?

 

[Brandson]

ETH is on the rise again, I wonder how high it will go this time?

Bitcoin signalling for their scaling upgrades has apparently jumped healthily above the 80% threshold just in time, which is why Bitcoin is now over 2500. Once that is official, Bitcoin could go to 3000 today/tomorrow. If signalling backpedals, it will be bad all around.

ETH's ratio to Bitcoin is currently depressed from yesterday's events. There is some lingering hesitance from ETH, for obvious reasons, but if Bitcoin keeps flying, ETH will catch up. It looks like 2600 for Bitcoin may be a resistance level.

 

[Brandson]

A possible strategy could be to just buy some ETH and don't look at the prices for the next few weeks. I am considering that. It might work better than trying to time things.

I opted to do this at 206 last night. So far this appears to have been the right decision.

 

[CaptainZombie]

I opted to do this at 206 last night. So far this appears to have been the right decision.

It is probably the best thing to do and not look at it again unless we get some real crazy ATH past $400, then you know to sell since it will only come back down. I wonder when Tezos will start to be cashed out.

 

[Brandson]

It is probably the best thing to do and not look at it again unless we get some real crazy ATH past $400, then you know to sell since it will only come back down. I wonder when Tezos will start to be cashed out.

Tezos issued a PR saying that they're going to sell very slowly over time, to minimize impact on Ethereum prices. I'm thinking along the lines of a few thousand ETH per week, which shouldn't have any impact at all on the price of ETH. So good for them, if they follow through on that. That decision has given me a bit more confidence in them, unlike EOS.

I'm still looking at the ETH prices though. If this shoots up +$100 in a day, I'm selling, and buying back after a dip.

 

[CaptainZombie]

Tezos issued a PR saying that they're going to sell very slowly over time, to minimize impact on Ethereum prices. I'm thinking along the lines of a few thousand ETH per week, which shouldn't have any impact at all on the price of ETH. So good for them, if they follow through on that. That decision has given me a bit more confidence in them, unlike EOS.

I'm still looking at the ETH prices though. If this shoots up +$100 in a day, I'm selling, and buying back after a dip.

Ahhhh okay, I thought you bought some Eth for long term. For sure, if it shoots up $100+ in a day, I don't blame you selling off and buying back in at a lower price.

 

[Brandson]

Ahhhh okay, I thought you bought some Eth for long term. For sure, if it shoots up $100+ in a day, I don't blame you selling off and buying back in at a lower price.

I reserve the right to change my mind 50000 times between now and then.

 

[Brandson]

ETH just turned its first green 1D MACD since the bull run in May/June. 12H MACD looking encouraging as well.

 

[CaptainZombie]

I reserve the right to change my mind 50000 times between now and then.

LOL! I think we all do in this game.

 

[Brandson]

13k sell wall at 230 on GDAX was just pulled.

 

[spyshagg]

lol are you guys seeing what that guy is doing with buy walls on gdax? amazing

 

[spyshagg]

he keeps putting up 1000eth buy walls everytime the price increases a bit. He already caused eth to increase 3%. But everytime someone does bite a bit of his walls, so those walls are either chump change for him, or I dont understand why he does it.


Edit: ok, so maybe he caused the market to believe it will go up, and anytime now he will put up sell walls to make quick 3-4% profits

 

[walking fiend]

oh wow! I just woke up, obviously, that overnight rally!

Brandson made a great call, I guess I have to stop being so stubborn and do watch for people putting and pulling out sell walls

 

[spyshagg]

oh wow! I just woke up, obviously, that overnight rally!

Brandson made a great call, I guess I have to stop being so stubborn and do watch for people putting and pulling out sell walls

What was his reasoning behing the walls? I didn't catch it

 

[walking fiend]

What was his reasoning behing the walls? I didn't catch it

That the spike in the price of Ethereum was because the sell orders lagged behind market signals, so people wanted to buy Ethereum, but there wasn't enough sell orders at reasonable prices, and market buy orders just buy whatever price is available on the order book.

Carefully placed sell walls effectively regulate the price, preventing it from jumping off the chart; it also helps whoever is putting the walls to take partial profits, in the case of a reversal [not sure if he agrees with this part]

I meant it more generally though, that these falls can be very effective at controlling short-term micro movements.

 

[spyshagg]

I see

thanks

 

[Brandson]

oh wow! I just woke up, obviously, that overnight rally!

Brandson made a great call, I guess I have to stop being so stubborn and do watch for people putting and pulling out sell walls

Thanks. I didn't want to do it, but running through all the scenarios, I didn't see a way for ETH to drop past 190 overnight. I was going to re-evaluate in the morning, but here we are. It was a big gamble, and I wasn't at all confident about it, but I thought the risk/reward was worth it this time.

What was his reasoning behing the walls? I didn't catch it

My reasoning from having watched Ethereum and Bitcoin price movements extremely closely over the last two days was that they were being manipulated to hell by whales, who must have known something. After the price dropped to the 190's and the huge buy wall appeared in Gemini, I noticed a lot of other large buy orders accumulating all available ETH at that level. Then the price slowly rose to around 204-207 and stayed there. That suggested to me that there was no one left to sell at those levels, and that we would have to go higher to go back down.

The whale action from the last 2 days suggested that they knew something we didn't, which turned out to be that miners signalling for Bitcoin BIP91 was about to flip positive.

And I believe some altruistic party put up the Gemini buy wall to keep more average people from losing money from the manipulations. At that point the whales decided they had had enough and bought all-in.

This is my read on the situation anyway.

 

[Brandson]

Here is the Bitcoin signalling status: https://coin.dance/blocks

It's currently at 83.3% for BIP91 with 75 Bitcoin blocks remaining. If that reaches 0 and it's still over 80%, Bitcoin should go up some more, or it could be a sell the news situation.

 

[CaptainZombie]

BTC is now over $2600. It is possible we could hit some ATH numbers here by the end of the month.

Kicking myself, Sunday AM was such a perfect buying opportunity for both BTC and Eth, but who would of known. LOL!

 

[walking fiend]

BTC is now over $2600. It is possible we could hit some ATH numbers here by the end of the month.

Kicking myself, Sunday AM was such a perfect buying opportunity for both BTC and Eth, but who would of known. LOL!

Haha me too... The market has been moving exactly opposite to what I expected since it reversed then. I suppose because my reading of the larger move being bearish was totally wrong and I wanted to capitalize on the downward movement [which is exactly the opposite of what one should do in an upward moving market] and didn't buy anything at the dips

 

[CaptainZombie]

Haha me too... The market has been moving exactly opposite to what I expected since it reversed then. I suppose because my reading of the larger move being bearish was totally wrong and I wanted to capitalize on the downward movement [which is exactly the opposite of what one should do in an upward moving market] and didn't buy anything at the dips

I remember last week we were all speculating double digits for Eth, I guess it came back to bite us.

I am totally surprised that we are in a green day so far, considering the trend this summer has been late Wed/Thursday starts the red for the week.

 

[walking fiend]

I remember last week we were all speculating double digits for Eth, I guess it came back to bite us.

I am totally surprised that we are in a green day so far, considering the trend this summer has been late Wed/Thursday starts the red for the week.

oh well, I guess that is what called mob psychology? Markets tend to move the opposite of what most of us think. Though there was a memo I posted a few days ago produced by a strategic analyst at Goldman Sach's predicting a low of 1800 for BTC almost a week before it hit $1800; so obviously there are some people who can predict the market, and I assume that is how some people become millionaires

I'd personally be very happy if I could increase my fiat 5% a week checking the charts a few times a day and very content if I could increase it 2% without checking the charts more than once a day

 

[Red]

oh well, I guess that is what called mob psychology? Markets tend to move the opposite of what most of us think. Though there was a memo I posted a few days ago produced by a strategic analyst at Goldman Sach's predicting a low of 1800 for BTC almost a week before it hit $1800; so obviously there are some people who can predict the market, and I assume that is how some people become millionaires

I'd personally be very happy if I could increase my fiat 5% a week checking the charts a few times a day and very content if I could increase it 2% without checking the charts more than once a day

Because someone gets it right once does not mean they can predict the market. It's cool you are trying to apply tools to gauge the direction of swings in crypto value, but I think you are providing a false sense of predictability in the market.

 

[Brandson]

oh well, I guess that is what called mob psychology? Markets tend to move the opposite of what most of us think. Though there was a memo I posted a few days ago produced by a strategic analyst at Goldman Sach's predicting a low of 1800 for BTC almost a week before it hit $1800; so obviously there are some people who can predict the market, and I assume that is how some people become millionaires

I'd personally be very happy if I could increase my fiat 5% a week checking the charts a few times a day and very content if I could increase it 2% without checking the charts more than once a day

In this market, things happen so fast, that to profit off of swings, I think you need to be aggressively monitoring everything. That said, since it swings so much, if you sell every time it goes up a lot, and then wait around long enough, or just put in a lower buy order, it will eventually dip and you'll get back in if you want to. Whether that would give better results than just buying at a price you're happy with and holding until you want out, or the market shifts into a bear market, I couldn't say.

 

[Brandson]

240 Bitcoin sell wall on GDAX at 2650 eaten.

 

[walking fiend]

Because someone gets it right once does not mean they can predict the market. It's cool you are trying to apply tools to gauge the direction of swings in crypto value, but I think you are providing a false sense of predictability in the market.

I don't believe someone gets to become a strategic analyst at GS by getting it right just once.

More importantly though, almost anyone who has entered the ethereum market in the past couple of months and has held is looking at a loss, given that its price is still way below its ATH, so even predicting the market enough to not lose any money is performing way above average

In this market, things happen so fast, that to profit off of swings, I think you need to be aggressively monitoring everything. That said, since it swings so much, if you sell every time it goes up a lot, and then wait around long enough, or just put in a lower buy order, it will eventually dip and you'll get back in if you want to. Whether that would give better results than just buying at a price you're happy with and holding until you want out, or the market shifts into a bear market, I couldn't say.

That is exactly my strategy; I am momentum trading. For that, one needs to know whether the market is bullish or bearish, and then wait for an oversold or overbought opportunity, respectively. If you can't read the market trend [like how I assumed it was bearish], or if the market trends change too quickly for your monitoring capacity [like how it changed its 30 minutes RSI pattern when I was sleep], you can't capitalize the momentum strategy.

 

[Brandson]

That is exactly my strategy; I am momentum trading. For that, one needs to know whether the market is bullish or bearish, and then wait for an oversold or overbought opportunity, respectively. If you can't read the market trend [like how I assumed it was bearish], or if the market trends change too quickly for your monitoring capacity [like how it changed its 30 minutes RSI pattern when I was sleep], you can't capitalize the momentum strategy.

Feel free to post your trading positions here after you make them.

 

[Brandson]

Slush Pool, miners with 2.28% mining share, just signaled for BIP91 with 69 blocks remaining.

 

[walking fiend]

Feel free to post your trading positions here after you make them.

I guess I'll do that before I put them, hopefully, can get some feedback on them in time too. My next long position will be when 30 minutes RSI goes below 20 and K crosses over, with a CCI turbo being rejected from negative

Though, given that Ethereum seems to be lacking behind BTC, there might be a rally before that happens which I will be missing...

 

[Brandson]

I guess I'll do that before I put them, hopefully, can get some feedback on them in time too. My next long position will be when 30 minutes RSI goes below 20 and K crosses over, with a CCI turbo being rejected from negative

Though, given that Ethereum seems to be lacking behind BTC, there might be a rally before that happens which I will be missing...

Bouncing ideas here, even just articulating my own, has helped me, so happy to give feedback on what I'm seeing.

My guess is the ETHBTC ratio is depressed from the hacking news, otherwise ETH would be around 235-240 now.

 

[x3sphere]

ETH has lagged behind on big BTC moves in the past, might have a delayed reaction to this.

Didn't expect BTC to go up this much though, glad I got back in at 1800

 

[Brandson]

ETH has lagged behind on big BTC moves in the past, might have a delayed reaction to this.

Didn't expect BTC to go up this much though, glad I got back in at 1800

Well done! I hear when Bitcoin has a big rise, after it is determined to be over, some traders take advantage of depressed exchange rates to altcoins, like ETH, to pick them up on the cheap, thus boosting the ratio then, and pumping ETH. That will probably happen here in a few days too, if the whole market doesn't take a giant dump on the weekend for the hell of it.

 

[walking fiend]

I shorted BTC @ 2600, with a stop-limit buy order set to 2637.5 and 2500.

edit: Changed it to a trailing stop of $40 now. Will email me once it is closed, i'll let you know if it will be profitable or not haha

 

[Brandson]

I shorted BTC @ 2600, with a stop-limit buy order set to 2637.5 and 2500.

I still think BTC might pump again at the end of the signalling period, if BIP91 is still a go. There is always a concern that one or more miners could stop signalling for it to cause market chaos, so some uncertainty remains for a few more hours. 52 blocks to go.

ETH volume is really weak right now. That can't last.

 

[CaptainZombie]

I still think BTC might pump again at the end of the signalling period, if BIP91 is still a go. There is always a concern that one or more miners could stop signalling for it to cause market chaos, so some uncertainty remains for a few more hours. 52 blocks to go.

ETH volume is really weak right now. That can't last.

Is 8/1 the date for BIP91 or was it sometime next week? I am trying to recall, getting these dates all mixed up now. LOL!

 

[Brandson]

Is 8/1 the date for BIP91 or was it sometime next week? I am trying to recall, getting these dates all mixed up now. LOL!

My understanding is that it would be enabled August 1, but that enabling can get locked in today with sufficient support, which it currently has.

 

[Brandson]

I thought ETH would break out any minute, but I'm going to end up giving back all those gains, aren't I?

 

[Tk0n]

I thought ETH would break out any minute, but I'm going to end up giving back all those gains, aren't I?

yeah, its the bull trap. tomorrow all our investments will be gone

lets see what happens when bip91 is ultimately locked in.
getting btc back on stable feet, should bring some trust back into the market, but for alts it would be nice if there would be a day without "x million eth stolen" news.

i was on vacation for 2 weeks with limited internet access and i missed the crash.
first time, i was able to open blockfolio, it showed my assets cut in half

i wasnt too surprised, because the last weeks foreshadowed it, but it sucked that i couldnt capitalize on it.

 

[walking fiend]

I still think BTC might pump again at the end of the signalling period, if BIP91 is still a go. There is always a concern that one or more miners could stop signalling for it to cause market chaos, so some uncertainty remains for a few more hours. 52 blocks to go.

ETH volume is really weak right now. That can't last.

My position was closed at 2,603.0, made a 0.004% transaction loss. I guess the market rejected a correction?

 

[Brandson]

My position was closed at 2,603.0, made a 0.004% transaction loss. I guess the market rejected a correction?

I'm not convinced yet. It wouldn't surprise me to see ETH slowly sag down to 210 or lower, along with a correction of Bitcoin in the coming days. Bitcoin went up a lot for one day.

 

[CaptainZombie]

Looks like Eth just keeps bouncing around that $223-$228 range. Let's see if we get back under $200 here soon.

Right when some of the alt coins are picking up some steam again, they are going to hit some mediocre numbers. Looks like I now have some decent profits with ANS where it is at today, but how long will this last. LOL! My luck next week the rebrand occurs and then they tank due to BTC and Eth.

 

[walking fiend]

I'm not convinced yet. It wouldn't surprise me to see ETH slowly sag down to 210 or lower, along with a correction of Bitcoin in the coming days. Bitcoin went up a lot for one day.

What has bothered me is that Ethereums daily high has been decreasing for three consecutive days:

It looks like a bearish pennant, marking market consolidation, but then the buy volume is quite a lot and BTC is almost back to its ATH; so I dunno

 

[CaptainZombie]

What has bothered me is that Ethereums daily high has been decreasing for three consecutive days:



It looks like a bearish pennant, marking market consolidation, but then the buy volume is quite a lot and BTC is almost back to its ATH; so I dunno

I guess we have to figure how many people bought on Sunday with a bank account or credit card, usually that takes up to 7-8 days to clear so this could go into Monday before we see a significant drop.......unless I am wrong in my thinking.

 

[Brandson]

What has bothered me is that Ethereums daily high has been decreasing for three consecutive days:



It looks like a bearish pennant, marking market consolidation, but then the buy volume is quite a lot and BTC is almost back to its ATH; so I dunno

The buy books on ETH are really thin. If Bitcoin does some profit taking to, say, 2450, which would still be way up on the day, ETH is heading back to 200. I think there's a much better chance of that than Bitcoin hitting 3000 today. As always, I could be completely wrong. I don't think ETH has fully felt the damage from the hacking news yet either.

 

[CaptainZombie]

BTC is nearing $2700, talk about insane if it breaks it's ATH here soon enough and I was just on another site, seems like BIP91 is about to get announced as a success.