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Cryptocurrency |OT| Nothing from Money

P

PolishQ

Member
Any current or upcoming ICOs looking like good bets? I'm thinking about picking up some Tezos when the coin launches (in December?) but is there anything more worthwhile coming sooner?
 
B

Brandson

Member
CaptainZombie said:
Yeah looks like Eth about to test $200 yet again. I think by tomorrow morning we will be at $185 range, which I think was the previous resistance if I read the chart correctly.
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I'm not getting a good read on it right now. There are signals pointing in both directions. Maybe bounce off 190 overnight and slowly recover upwards before stabilizing at 205? Not sure. A lot of people are misinterpreting the SEC news too, which could send ETH unnecessarily tumbling.
 
C

CaptainZombie

Member
Brandson said:
I'm not getting a good read on it right now. There are signals pointing in both directions. Maybe bounce off 190 overnight and slowly recover upwards before stabilizing at 205? Not sure. A lot of people are misinterpreting the SEC news too, which could send ETH unnecessarily tumbling.
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I haven't looked into the SEC news, but what has been reported?
 
B

Brandson

Member
CaptainZombie said:
I haven't looked into the SEC news, but what has been reported?
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The SEC released a notice stating that they believe the DAO (which doesn't exist anymore) was a security, and should have been subject to all U.S. securities laws. Some people are interpreting that as saying that all crypto is subject to U.S. securities legislation. Others are saying Bitcoin, for some convoluted self-serving reasons, is immune but all other crypto is a security and will be regulated.

The DAO was an investment fund operating as a smart contract on Ethereum, but was hacked, resulting in the hard fork of Ethereum that created Ethereum Classic.

My personal view is that nothing will be immune from regulation, but some crypto assets are more akin to currencies, and others securities. I think you have to examine what the crypto asset represents, what it is used for, and whether there is some sort of return involved for holding it beyond simply the value of the crypto asset itself. If Bitcoin isn't a security, then neither is Ethereum. But crypto like Augur or Iconomi might be more likely to be determined to be a security. Antshares might also become subject to regulation since you get ANC for holding ANS. Proof of stake-based crypto might also be subject to regulation for the same reasons. But really, U.S. securities law was never drafted with crypto in mind. To regulate responsibly, the U.S. government would be wise to draft new regulations specifically geared to crypto. Either way, I don't believe any of this applies to non-Americans living in other countries (i.e. me).

Any trading based on this particular bit of news I think is an overreaction, which will eventually be corrected.
 
C

CaptainZombie

Member
Brandson said:
The SEC released a notice stating that they believe the DAO (which doesn't exist anymore) was a security, and should have been subject to all U.S. securities laws. Some people are interpreting that as saying that all crypto is subject to U.S. securities legislation. Others are saying Bitcoin, for some convoluted self-serving reasons, is immune but all other crypto is a security and will be regulated.

The DAO was an investment fund operating as a smart contract on Ethereum, but was hacked, resulting in the hard fork of Ethereum that created Ethereum Classic.

My personal view is that nothing will be immune from regulation, but some crypto assets are more akin to currencies, and others securities. I think you have to examine what the crypto asset represents, what it is used for, and whether there is some sort of return involved for holding it beyond simply the value of the crypto asset itself. If Bitcoin isn't a security, then neither is Ethereum. But crypto like Augur or Iconomi might be more likely to be determined to be a security. Antshares might also become subject to regulation since you get ANC for holding ANS. Proof of stake-based crypto might also be subject to regulation for the same reasons. But really, U.S. securities law was never drafted with crypto in mind. To regulate responsibly, the U.S. government would be wise to draft new regulations specifically geared to crypto.

Any trading based on this particular bit of news I think is an overreaction, which will eventually be corrected.
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Thanks Brandson for this. If there are people that do not think that crypto will be regulated at some point in the future are living in some kind of bubble. As soon as the government can see what kind of money they can make off this, they won't be too far behind. Hopefully all of us can make some decent money before any kind of regulations hit making it harder for us.
 
W

walking fiend

Member
CaptainZombie said:
Thanks Brandson for this. If there are people that do not think that crypto will be regulated at some point in the future are living in some kind of bubble. As soon as the government can see what kind of money they can make off this, they won't be too far behind. Hopefully all of us can make some decent money before any kind of regulations hit making it harder for us.
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If by all of us you mean we here on NeoGAF :D I have been aware, maybe too aware, that what I have gained and lost in crypto has been someone else's loss and gain... of course, like all the other assets, they eventually spread out and gains and losses will be incurred in smaller amount to a larger number of people, on average [while some will make billions]
 
D

DXPett1

Member
PolishQ said:
Any current or upcoming ICOs looking like good bets? I'm thinking about picking up some Tezos when the coin launches (in December?) but is there anything more worthwhile coming sooner?
Click to expand...

I'm keeping my eye on the UniKoin token . Esports is pretty big these days and so is gambling on esports. What sets this one apart from others? Tabcorp (massive gambling company in Australia) is backing this one.
 
NiiloPielinen

NiiloPielinen

Member
Brandson said:
Not that odd. It's Bitcoin dropping. They are all connected. Unfortunately I was asleep when this movement started. ETH probably won't go below 200 unless Bitcoin breaks below 2500. It's 2518 now.
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I was looking at charts in tradingview.com and the dip seemed to start on all of those at the same time. They are connected but I'm surprised at the speed of it, it was almost immediate.
 
T

Tk0n

Member
NiiloPielinen said:
I was looking at charts in tradingview.com and the dip seemed to start on all of those at the same time. They are connected but I'm surprised at the speed of it, it was almost immediate.
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you could also see this in other alt coins, for instance strat.
maybe it was just some trading bots reaction to the sudden price drop in btc.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
Strat been hovering around 5 for a while now.

Although would it safe to assume that we're going to hit some major selloffs once the BTC-E situation is confirmed (if it's as bad as it seems)?
 
B

Brandson

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
Strat been hovering around 5 for a while now.

Although would it safe to assume that we're going to hit some major selloffs once the BTC-E situation is confirmed (if it's as bad as it seems)?
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Not sure. It weakens confidence in crypto. If the owners managed to transfer the exchange's funds before being caught, everything could get liquidated, which would drag everything down. However, if the government is now in control of everything, then a huge amount of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto could just have been taken out of circulation indefinitely, which could drive the price up. Too early to tell what the impact would be.
 
B

Brandson

Member
Never a dull moment in cryptoland. HBO or Netflix should commission a tv series based on the roller coaster of events happening throughout the creation of this industry.
 
B

Brandson

Member
http://blog.wizsec.jp/2017/07/breaking-open-mtgox-1.html

In September 2011, the MtGox hot wallet private keys were stolen, in a case of a simple copied wallet.dat file. This gave the hacker access to a sizable number of bitcoins immediately, but also were able to spend the incoming trickle of bitcoins deposited to any of the addresses contained.

Over time, the hacker regularly emptied out whatever coins they could spend using the compromised keys, and sent them to wallet(s) controlled by Vinnik. This went on for long periods, but also had breaks — a prominent second phase of thefts happened later in 2012 and 2013.

By mid 2013 when the funds spendable from the compromised keys had slowed to a near halt, the thief had taken out about 630,000 BTC from MtGox.

In addition, the shared keypool of the wallet.dat file lead to address reuse, which confused MtGox's systems into mistakenly interpreting some of the thief's spending as deposits, crediting multiple user accounts with large sums of BTC and causing MtGox's numbers to go further out of balance by about 40,000 BTC. None of these users seem to have reported their "sudden luck".

After the coins entered Vinnik's wallets, most were moved to BTC-e and presumably sold off or laundered (BTC-e money codes were a popular choice). In total some 300,000 BTC ended up on BTC-e, while other coins were deposited to other exchanges, including MtGox itself.

Some of the funds moved to BTC-e seem to have moved straight to internal storage rather than customer deposit addresses, hinting at a relationship between Vinnik and BTC-e.

The stolen MtGox coins were not the only stolen coins handled by Vinnik; coins stolen from Bitcoinica, Bitfloor and several other thefts from back in 2011 and 2012 were all laundered through the same wallets.

Moving coins back onto MtGox was what let us identify Vinnik, as the MtGox accounts he used could be linked to his online identity "WME". As WME, Vinnik had previously made a public outcry that coins had been confiscated from him (the coins in question coming from Bitcoinica).

There were other thefts and incidents explaining other missing funds from MtGox. More on that in later posts.
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T

TCRS

Banned
shorting litecoin because why not

I have no idea how crypto works and from what I've read there seems to be no system at all. it's a small position so even if it doesn't work no big loss.
 
B

Brandson

Member
Tk0n said:
The mtgox/btc-e story is crazy.
So Karpeles might be innocent after all.
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Sounds like he may be guilty of at least not paying enough attention to his exchange though, if Bitcoin was being siphoned off for almost 2 years. You would think that should have been noticeable by someone. Maybe he was letting the exchange run itself, with no one supervising it at all? That is still bad.
 
C

CaptainZombie

Member
Eth has again been stable around in the $195-200 range, you guys thinking it goes down any further or will we be shooting up a bit based on the charts? It was doing this days ago in the $220-$225 range till we took that $30 drop.
 
M

mackaveli

Member
Is bitcoin mining profitable nowadays or no? I have a friend who knows someone looking to raise about 100,000k to get started mining and my friend wants to know if he should invest a couple of grand into this endeavour?

Thanks.
 
C

criesofthepast

Member
Man am I glad I got out of BTC-e a few weeks ago. Some people never learn. BTC-e going down is huge. They survived way longer than anyone had ever thought they would. They were always sketchy and everyone knew that but we still used them.

I don't know if their wallets have been seized or whats going on there. Doubtful people see their coins again. US GOV: worlds largest criminal orginization strikes again. Sorry to all who lost today.
 
B

BlackRainbowFT

Member
I often lurk this thread and it seems to me like few people are interested in Ripple. why is that?
I'm in crypto not because of my principles... I'm not a bitcoin activist or whatever. I just want to make some dough to fund some projects (if by any chance I become rich, I would work part-time at my current job and I'd create an indie game studio).

Is it just because of the banks? I'm trying to find out if the lack of interest is due to misconceptions or something else.

I personally value actual use cases above anything else. I got out of any project that still seems to abstract...

I'm biased because I find XRP to be the most promising crypto out there and I keep increasing my stash.
 
DonMigs85

DonMigs85

Member
BlackRainbowFT said:
I often lurk this thread and it seems to me like few people are interested in Ripple. why is that?
I'm in crypto not because of my principles... I'm not a bitcoin activist or whatever. I just want to make some dough to fund some projects (if by any chance I become rich, I would work part-time at my current job and I'd create an indie game studio).

Is it just because of the banks? I'm trying to find out if the lack of interest is due to misconceptions or something else.

I personally value actual use cases above anything else. I got out of any project that still seems to abstract...

I'm biased because I find XRP to be the most promising crypto out there and I keep increasing my stash.
Click to expand...

I think it's because banks expect it to be stable, so it can't explode too much.
At this point I think ANS/NEO is poised to grow the most over time, maybe Litecoin too. Maaaybe GNT and ARK if they take off in the future.
 
D

Donos

Member
On the move atm but one criticism I've read so far against xrp is the centralization. While others like to put up the (bank) partnerships as big pro and thus xrp only can go to the moon...
 
B

BlackRainbowFT

Member
DonMigs85 said:
I think it's because banks expect it to be stable, so it can't explode too much.
At this point I think ANS/NEO is poised to grow the most over time, maybe Litecoin too. Maaaybe GNT and ARK if they take off in the future.
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Well, stability also comes from high valuation and Ripple has publicly stated that higher is better (https://www.reddit.com/r/Ripple/com..._value_and_stability_matter_to_banks/dhf71cw/). Regarding its value, XRP is just a tool, a bridge to transfer money. If you l need to transfer a trillion dollars and only 5 million XRP are available, then those XRP will have to be worth that much. Using psychological variables or metrics like the market cap are absolutely meaningless as XRP isn't a share or something representing something else. It's value is derived by how much money needs to be sent and how much XRP is available. It can be worth an absurd amount of money as long as the network has to support it.

Donos said:
On the move atm but one criticism I've read so far against xrp is the centralization. While others like to put up the (bank) partnerships as big pro and thus xrp only can go to the moon...
Click to expand...
Well bitcoin is decentralized in theory but centralized in reality (otherwise we wouldn't have pools having so much weight in adopting protocol changes). XRP is getting progressively more decentralized. Here's an article: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/ripple-unveils-strategy-become-decentralized-bitcoin/ and here's David Schwartz's answer (chief crypto wiz at Ripple): https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/a/51316.

Although it seems I'm just a shill, If you guys drop a few k in it, that's not what is going to make me wealthy... I'm just a fan willing to dispel some misconceptions!
 
B

Brandson

Member
BlackRainbowFT said:
I often lurk this thread and it seems to me like few people are interested in Ripple. why is that?
I'm in crypto not because of my principles... I'm not a bitcoin activist or whatever. I just want to make some dough to fund some projects (if by any chance I become rich, I would work part-time at my current job and I'd create an indie game studio).

Is it just because of the banks? I'm trying to find out if the lack of interest is due to misconceptions or something else.

I personally value actual use cases above anything else. I got out of any project that still seems to abstract...

I'm biased because I find XRP to be the most promising crypto out there and I keep increasing my stash.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that public XRP has no use case. The banks would all use a different private version, if they adopt Ripple. It's not clear that there would be any benefits to holding XRP.
 
C

CaptainZombie

Member
It's looking like many coins are having an upward trend the last day or so which is good. Eth just keeps moving sideways, bouncing between the $200 range. I wonder if it is due for a breakout moving upward here soon. Hoping it does get back to the 190's here today to jump back in, unless you guys see it possibly dropping with 8/1 on the horizon.
 
B

Brandson

Member
CaptainZombie said:
It's looking like many coins are having an upward trend the last day or so which is good. Eth just keeps moving sideways, bouncing between the $200 range. I wonder if it is due for a breakout moving upward here soon. Hoping it does get back to the 190's here today to jump back in, unless you guys see it possibly dropping with 8/1 on the horizon.
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Barring more unexpected developments, I think ETH will continue to move as it has been, between around 192 and 205 or so until August 1, probably with increased volatility the closer we get to August. Once we're into August, there could be a bit of a drop as Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash feel themselves out, but then slowly upwards from there. I think ETH might see the 180's between now and then, but I'm not betting on it.
 
B

BlackRainbowFT

Member
Brandson said:
My understanding is that public XRP has no use case. The banks would all use a different private version, if they adopt Ripple. It's not clear that there would be any benefits to holding XRP.
Click to expand...

I don't see the problem with it. Bank A can transfer to bank B without disclosing which bank accounts are concerned once the transaction goes through the XRP ledger.

Anyway, here's a link about this: https://ripple.com/insights/what-an-open-network-means-for-banks-market-makers-and-regulators/
 
B

Brandson

Member
BlackRainbowFT said:
I don't see the problem with it. Bank A can transfer to bank B without disclosing which bank accounts are concerned once the transaction goes through the XRP ledger.

Anyway, here's a link about this: https://ripple.com/insights/what-an-open-network-means-for-banks-market-makers-and-regulators/
Click to expand...

Being realistic, which I always try to be, I don't see a benefit for two banks that want to send money to each other to use a public chain, when there is a private option that otherwise works identically. Sure you could anonymize the details, but nothing is truly anonymous, and identities and motivations can be deduced by studying anonymized traffic. Using a public chain also subjects you to other undesirable influences, such as unpredictable fluctuations in the XRP/dollar exchange rates, network congestion, malicious attacks, and other factors. If the market changes drastically and everyone becomes his or her own bank, then banks might have to offer services to cater to those people, but I just can't see two banks sending money to each other using a public chain. Feel free to disagree with me, but that's my take on it.
 
X

x3sphere

Member
I think there has been a lot of downward pressure on the ETH/BTC ratio because some people are moving over to BTC to get their coins on the BCC (Bitcoin Cash) fork

I think this is a bad play, I doubt the forked coins will be worth very much. There might be a price spike initially, but it might be difficult to get coins on the fork sent over to exchanges before the price starts tanking too, so I wouldn't risk it.

My thinking is ETH will rise against BTC after the fork.
 
T

TheDoldrums

Member
x3sphere said:
I think this is a bad play, I doubt the forked coins will be worth very much. There might be a price spike initially, but it might be difficult to get coins on the fork sent over to exchanges before the price starts tanking too, so I wouldn't risk it.
Click to expand...

Have to disagree. Any fork off of BTC is going to have value. I'm expecting something around 5-10% of the BTC value, which is still well worth the effort.

I would recommend people have all their BTC in a wallet where you control all the keys (not on an exchange) by July 31. On August 1st, import keys to get your BCC. Then if you don't trust BCC like me, after importing and declaring BCC coins, move all BTC to a fresh wallet.
 
X

x3sphere

Member
TheDoldrums said:
Have to disagree. Any fork off of BTC is going to have value. I'm expecting something around 5-10% of the BTC value, which is still well worth the effort.

I would recommend people have all their BTC in a wallet where you control all the keys (not on an exchange) by July 31. On August 1st, import keys to get your BCC. Then if you don't trust BCC like me, after importing and declaring BCC coins, move all BTC to a fresh wallet.
Click to expand...

5-10% seems likely to me as well, but I'm only speaking in regards to moving from ETH to BTC. Consider that ETH/BTC could easily jump by 20% or more after the fork, which would more or less cancel out your gains, if you moved from ETH to BTC to get the forked coins.

ETH/BTC is close to its support level right now (which has held several times) so I don't see it going much lower either. If you sold your ETH for BTC when the ratio was 0.1 or above then maybe it'd make sense to wait and see. But at this point, I think there's a high chance you'll have to get back in on ETH at a loss if you move to BTC now and plan to move back after the fork.

That's just how I see things, I could well be wrong. I do have some BTC still so will be getting some coins on the fork, but I'm just not going to sell any of my ETH for BTC.
 
T

TheDoldrums

Member
x3sphere said:
5-10% seems likely to me as well, but I'm only speaking in regards to moving from ETH to BTC. Consider that ETH/BTC could easily jump by 20% or more after the fork, which would more or less cancel out your gains, if you moved from ETH to BTC to get the forked coins.

ETH/BTC is close to its support level right now (which has held several times) so I don't see it going much lower either. If you sold your ETH for BTC when the ratio was 0.1 or above then maybe it'd make sense to wait and see. But at this point, I think there's a high chance you'll have to get back in on ETH at a loss if you move to BTC now and plan to move back after the fork.

That's just how I see things, I could well be wrong. I do have some BTC still so will be getting some coins on the fork, but I'm just not going to sell any of my ETH for BTC.
Click to expand...

Ah, understood. Thanks for the clarification.
 
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