Does anyone else think a massive crash is incoming?

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Koshiro said:
"From late 1944 until early 1945, the Japanese launched over 9,000 of these fire balloons, of which 300 were found or observed in the U.S. Some guesswork gives the total number that made the trip at about 1,000. Despite the high hopes of their designers, the balloons were relatively ineffective as weapons, causing only six deaths and a small amount of damage, and they survive in memory mostly as an ingenious and dangerous curiosity."

:\
 
TomServo said:
Personally, my opinion is that the government will eventually collapse under its own weight, bringing an end to the age of entitlements. If you depend on the government for your check in one way or another you may be standing in the bread line. Hopefully the private sector will be strong enough to survive, and greet a smaller, less nanny-state government on the other side.
If everyone who depends on the government is going to be screwed, say goodbye to the private sector.
 
something I've never understood about outsourcing (and could never get a straight answer from my management professors): if the jobs aren't here, the workers here aren't getting paid. Sans paychecks, they have no money to buy the goods companies are trying to sell to them. This causes profits to drop and more layoffs and more outsourcing to save money. I just don't understand how anyone thought not paying Americans would make our economy better. Money to spend = money spent.

I know I'm not articulating this as well as I'd like but it's because I'm in a hurry to mow the grass before it rains.
 
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Nicodimas said:
-Fannie Mae/Fredie Mac
-Banks lining up to go bankrupt
-GM/Ford going bankrupt
-100s Billions being spent/Lost on wars.
-Ugly economy

+The jobless rate is still very secure at 5.7%
+Oil seems to be going down now..

http://bangornews.com/news/t/news.aspx?articleid=167913&zoneid=500
+20% cost for energy.


We are really at a prolific intersection for America. Countries Crash. Just the normal doom and gloom..I just have had a bad vibe about this whole situation lately.

We will obviously make it past it and life will go on, but I would rather be prepared...then not.


There was a pretty good article in the last The Economist about the possibility of a crash combined with our current abysmal foreign relations. We're at a turning point where things can either rebound and be in the plus or bottom out and cause a worldwide depression, but regardless, we're still on the decline as the #1 world power. This isn't a bad thing, but Americans will view any place outside of #1 as utter failure, because we're a bunch of egotistical maniacs.
 
Kabouter said:
You're right, if he were president, a massive crash would be inevitable.

It's inevitable either way, but I'd trust him more to get us out of it because he at least saw it was coming before anyone else apparently did.
 
bune duggy said:
something I've never understood about outsourcing (and could never get a straight answer from my management professors): if the jobs aren't here, the workers here aren't getting paid. Sans paychecks, they have no money to buy the goods companies are trying to sell to them. This causes profits to drop and more layoffs and more outsourcing to save money. I just don't understand how anyone thought not paying Americans would make our economy better. Money to spend = money spent.

I know I'm not articulating this as well as I'd like but it's because I'm in a hurry to mow the grass before it rains.
There are a lot of jobs that get outsourced that don't involve physical production. For example, Indian is probably one of the most popular places to outsource IT work. They don't produce anything, all they do is keep the company running smoothly, they get jobs and the company cuts spending. It's Win/Win, for them at least.
 
The point about the WWII is just a big ultimate vs proximate cause question and really easy to argue either way. The point is that while it was responsible for getting the US out of the depression, that was the case because it gave us the opportunity to go through massive rationing and enormous manipulation of aggregate demand. It's unfortunate that the lesson out of the situation tends to be that War Is Good For The Economy as an inherent truism, because you really don't need to look very far to see how that isn't true.

I still remember being barely able to pick myself off the floor in 2003 when the posts about "Why hasn't the Iraq War fixed the economy?" started coming in.
 
Halycon said:
There are a lot of jobs that get outsourced that don't involve physical production. For example, Indian is probably one of the most popular places to outsource IT work. They don't produce anything, all they do is keep the company running smoothly, they get jobs and the company cuts spending. It's Win/Win, for them at least.
What I was trying to get at is that if there aren't that many jobs here in the US as is, getting rid of a few more won't exactly help things. Remember a few years ago when the big "buy American" push was going on? That sort of thing.

If the people who live here can't find a job, they won't have the money to buy stuff with and the economy will go down. And if we aren't producing anything to export, we won't have as many foreign nations buying stuff from us. We certainly can't export our #1 employment category: service jobs.
 
we are about 6 months from hitting bottom, i am extremely bullish, by 2010 the economy will be in full mid-90's growth cycle.
this coming from one of the handfull of gaffers that knows what the hell im talking about.
 
StoOgE said:
we are about 6 months from hitting bottom, i am extremely bullish, by 2010 the economy will be in full mid-90's growth cycle.
this coming from one of the handfull of gaffers that knows what the hell im talking about.
that's not exactly a good thing. mid 90s growth was largely built on the stock market/tech bubble that then led to the housing bubble.

housing prices still need to correct quite a bit to get to historical levels, but who knows if Paulson/Bernake want that to happen
 
Yaweee said:
The future entitlement crisis is far more terrifying than the current economic problems. The US is going to need some tough love, i.e. an increase in taxes and cuts to many, many government programs. There is no other way. Period.

I completely agree, the only reason I worry about our problems now is because they already highlight the American public's propensity to stick their fingers in their ears and shout "I'm not listening!" when someone starts telling them things that aren't just "America the beautiful."

If anyone thinks the annual budget deficits are bad now, wait until we have to start actually paying into the mythical "Social Security Trust Fund" so that we can pay it out to retirees. There's nothing in the "Trust Fund" except for special-issue, non-marketable bonds, which is government-speak for "IOU". Whenever you hear comments from DC that Social Security is solvent until 2040, they're talking about those IOUs. Social Security starts to run us into the read in within the next decade.

That we've got people seriously discussing adding onto the $40 trillion in unfunded liability with more entitlements (universal health care) is beyond me. Don't get me wrong, I'm not against universal health care in pricinple, but no one has demonstrated how they're realistically going to pay for the entitlement programs we have now, let alone billions, if not trillions, of dollars in additional entitlement spending. Raise the retirement age? SS tax beyond the first ~$100K of annual income? Cut benefits? All of the above? We'll need more than that to stay solvent.
 
ElectricBlue187 said:
our economy is so awesome it can survive 8 years of incompetent republican rule

but we do kinda need to elect a democrat, now.
lol two-party system solves everything
 
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