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[Memles]

Not Quite So 'Incredibles' - Pixar Stock Falls

On Thursday (June 30) afternoon, Pixar Animation issued a second quarter profit warning to investors, stemming from a less-glowing-than-expected review of domestic and international sales for the DVD of "The Incredibles."

Pixar upped its estimates for refund reserves to pay retailers for unsold DVDs, a move that the company estimates will lower second quarter earnings by roughly 10 cents per share, or $6 million overall. Saturday marks the end of Pixar's second quarter.

"'The Incredibles' is the best-selling home video title of 2005 to date, and we continue to expect it to generate home video revenues similar to 'Monsters, Inc.,'" insists Pixar CEO Steve Jobs in a statement. "But based on the most recent sell-through information, we have opted to be more cautious with respect to our second quarter home video reserves."

In other words, not enough people are buying The Incredibles on DVD. While similar revenues to Monsters Inc. is in no way a bad thing (It, I think, actually held the single-day record for a while after its release), there is a much larger market for DVDs now so the sales were likely expected to be higher.

This is much more of a warning than an alarm, while Dreamworks (See This Thread for Details of the Shareholder Lawsuit) kind of surprised people with their own problems.

I think this is yet another reason that Disney/Pixar's decision to delay Cars to Summer 2006 is a very good one. No matter the concerns one has over its quality, a Summer Theatrical Release followed by a Christmas DVD Release is the best way to make money in traditional animated films, especially for Pixar. While Shrek 2 kind of feel flat in the DVD section of this, Pixar has a better track record with this stuff.

While Pixar won't have a film this fall, they've got both Toy Story Films coming out of the vault: Toy Story in September and Toy Story 2 on Boxing Day. I think they'll be rolling in the cash before long. Plus, if they combine that with a deal with Disney, the current low stock price might be quite the investment.

 

[Mama Smurf]

Fucking fuckers, buy The Incredibles! Yeah I know, it's selling well, but it has to sell well compared to other Pixar films so we get a sequel.

 

[TAJ]

>>>While Pixar won't have a film this fall, they've got both Toy Story Films coming out of the vault: Toy Story in September and Toy Story 2 on Boxing Day. I think they'll be rolling in the cash before long. Plus, if they combine that with a deal with Disney, the current low stock price might be quite the investment.<<<

Pixar looks like a bad investment right now. If what I've seen of Cars is any indication, it's their first clunker. They skipped mediocrity and went straight to pure crap.

 

[Desperado]

If what I've seen of Cars is any indication,

which is...?

 

[fugimax]

They skipped mediocrity and went straight to pure crap.

When I saw The Incredibles teaser trailer I thought it looked like crap too..

 

[HokieJoe]

Fucking fuckers, buy The Incredibles! Yeah I know, it's selling well, but it has to sell well compared to other Pixar films so we get a sequel.

Already have it.

 

[J2 Cool]

Pixar looks like a bad investment right now. If what I've seen of Cars is any indication, it's their first clunker. They skipped mediocrity and went straight to pure crap.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. John Lassenter is back directing this, and it's based on a passion of his like Toy Story was. I expect the story to be really strong too. There's no reason to doubt them based on a teaser. Dreamworks is one to doubt, especially after Shark's Tale and Madagascar. Not to mention Shrek 2 was a complete pop reference cash in. Nowhere near what Toy Story 1 and 2 are. Pixar was forced to do a Toy Story sequel, while Dreamworks is happily jumping into 3 and 4.

Oh, and on The Incredibles sequel... it's going to happen, I'm sure. The bad news is that it will likely be done by Disney and their own animation studio. Pixar doesn't want to do a sequel. They've always been one for originality and taking on new challenges. Much like Disney in it's beginnings. I don't know the latest on breaking off from Disney, but I know their contract is up after Cars. Bottom line is, Disney wants to cash in on the sequels. They own the names. Not the animation technology though. Instead, they'll be starting their models from scratch. May not even match the quality of the original. Who knows about voice acting. Tom Hanks said he wouldn't want to do a Toy Story without Pixar. I'd imagine some of The Incredibles cast would feel the same way. I expect sequels for Finding Nemo, Toy Story, and The Incredibles at some point from Disney.

Pixar meanwhile, I still believe to be a very proud bunch, headed by some of the best in animation today. John Lassenter, Andrew Stanton, and Brad Bird, who seemingly is going to stay on board as of now. I only see bigger and better things from them. There's even been rumors of them opening up a traditional animation wing at their studios. It would only be right for the ones doing strong animated stories to be the ones to bring back strong stories in traditionally animated films. As far as the dvd sales, what better can you do than the best selling dvd of '05? I know I bought mine. Gotta deal with the market.

 

[Error]

I wouldn't be so sure about that. John Lassenter is back directing this, and it's based on a passion of his like Toy Story was. I expect the story to be really strong too. There's no reason to doubt them based on a teaser. Dreamworks is one to doubt, especially after Shark's Tale and Madagascar. Not to mention Shrek 2 was a complete pop reference cash in. Nowhere near what Toy Story 1 and 2 are. Pixar was forced to do a Toy Story sequel, while Dreamworks is happily jumping into 3 and 4.

Oh, and on The Incredibles sequel... it's going to happen, I'm sure. The bad news is that it will likely be done by Disney and their own animation studio. Pixar doesn't want to do a sequel. They've always been one for originality and taking on new challenges. Much like Disney in it's beginnings. I don't know the latest on breaking off from Disney, but I know their contract is up after Cars. Bottom line is, Disney wants to cash in on the sequels. They own the names. Not the animation technology though. Instead, they'll be starting their models from scratch. May not even match the quality of the original. Who knows about voice acting. Tom Hanks said he wouldn't want to do a Toy Story without Pixar. I'd imagine some of The Incredibles cast would feel the same way. I expect sequels for Finding Nemo, Toy Story, and The Incredibles at some point from Disney.

Why oh why? Disney went downhill when they started doing shit like that, in came Pixar and save their asses. Let Pixar do their shit alone Disney, don't fuck with them they are probably the best animation studio in the world next to Gibli, they deserved to be left alone and in peace.

 

[Dan]

Not entirely related, but I've got the info on the new Pixar short that will be shown before Cars.

Executive producers: John Lasseter, Brad Bird (if you don't know what they've done, go ahead and die)
Producer: Osnat Shurer (produced Boundin', Jack-Jack Attack, head of Pixar's Shorts Group)
Directors: Andrew Jimenez (digital artist on Iron Giant, last three Pixar movies), Mark Andrews (storyboarder on Incredibles, Iron Giant)
Music: Michael Giacchino (Incredibles, Lost, Alias)

Plot: "The humorously captivating tale of a peasant girl who, with one coin to make a wish at the piazza fountain, encounters two competing street performers who'd prefer the coin find its way their tip jars. As the two one-man bands' rivalry crescendos, the two overly eager musicians vie to win the little girl's attention."

I'm so jealous that this premiered at a festival in France last week and I surely won't see it until next summer with Cars. I love their shorts, and they're cool looks into the future since they're always testbeds for new talents and new tech.

 

[J2 Cool]

I was just wondering tonight what they would be doing next as far as a short. Those shorts are an amazing thing they have going. Such a cool touch for a studio to have. It always feels like a complete animation event, seeing a Pixar film. Being an animation buff it's a dream. Pixar teaser for the next film, Pixar short, Pixar featurette. Being able to check the talent is a great thing too. That's how the director for their next feature film after Cars was cast. The guy who did Geri's Game, which won an oscar, is now doing Ratatouille, set for 2006 as well apparently.

Nice to see Bird looking out for his Iron Giant crew too, getting them a shot to direct that short.

 

[Lil' Dice]

Disney may be waiting to see how Cars performs in theaters. The outcome will determine who has the biggest barganing chips when they sit down and talk again.
Disney is also eager to see how their own 3D projects do this fall (Valiant & Chicken Little).

 

[Dan]

The guy who did Geri's Game, which won an oscar, is now doing Ratatouille, set for 2006 as well apparently.

Ratatouille won't be out until summer 2007. It got pushed back at the same time as Cars when Jobs decided summer releases were stronger than holiday ones. I'm really excited for that one, since as you said, Jan Pinkava's behind it and Geri's Game is an absolute work of genuis.

 

[J2 Cool]

Ratatouille won't be out until summer 2007. It got pushed back at the same time as Cars when Jobs decided summer releases were stronger than holiday ones. I'm really excited for that one, since as you said, Jan Pinkava's behind it and Geri's Game is an absolute work of genuis.

Oh, figured IMDB was wrong. Damn Steve Jobs for making me wait.

 

[Memles]

Okay, I'll lay this out there.

I hereby predict that Disney and Pixar will have a deal in place before Cars is released.

I don't think that either is in a position to lost the other; Chicken Little has almost nothing going for it this fall, and even if it is a huge success Disney is still relying on a Pixar film (Cars) to lead off the next summer, something that they decided Chicken Little was unable to do this year. They have a fair amount of Computer Animated Films in the pipeline...but few of them have concrete release dates, and a majority of them appear to be suffering from creative difficulties. While their creative future seems to be a bit better off than Dreamworks (Although Aardman might save their asses creatively), they have nothing there that screams financial success...and Disney needs that right now. Chicken Little will be very telling of where they head in the future, but considering the relationship between the incoming President of Disney and Steve Jobs, I suspect a deal will be made.

And, to be honest with you, I expect that Toy Story 3 will be part of that deal, as well deals regarding the intellectual property rights of Pixar's franchises. Because, to be honest with you, I really don't see Disney going ahead with Toy Story 3 without some sort of Pixar involvement. I think the project has merit if you bring in Lasseter, Stanton and the rest of Pixar's Brain Trust to look over the story and make the necessary changes. Send over a supervising animator to the new Pixar Sequel Studio and share technology and existing character models. If you simply let Disney animate the film and let Pixar handle the basic producing of the picture, I think that the existence of the studio would be a very good thing.

While I believe that many of Pixar's films truly do deserve sequels (Incredibles being the one that is screaming for it), I think that Pixar itself is better served with new films. But, if you let someone like Brad Bird write and executive produce an Incredibles sequel and use a member of his imported staff to direct the film, I really do think that it would be a worthwhile venture. Considering the prevalence of animated films, I think that this would be a worthwhile venture to bring back story to animated film.

Because, while there is an IMMENSE amount of talent in the animation department at Pixar, with their fantastic technological advancements and all, I think it is the characters and story that drive the films...put Pixar people in charge of that, and I think Disney can handle the animation and we'll get worthwhile sequels.

And, I refuse to prejudge Cars...nothing seems offensive to me, nothing seems fantastic, and all I can do is sit back, wait for a true trailer and then see the film itself...only then will I speak of its true quality. Anything else is 90% speculation. As others have noted, it is story that drives a Pixar film to greatness at its core...I can only hope Lasseter can pull it off again.

Yeah, that short looks and sounds like it will be quite neat...once again, though, it will be eligible for an Oscar before we even get to see it. I hate it when that happens, it only wants me to see it more.

 

[J2 Cool]

I think they could very well have a deal also, but I really don't see Pixar bending to what Disney wants. If I know Brad Bird, I know that he has a lot of stories planned, and doesn't want to sit around doing the same old same old. Also, I know Pixar didn't want to do Toy Story 2, but did so begrudgingly because Disney said it was a go with or without them. They were actually going to make a straight to dvd/video kind of release before Pixar said if we must do it we're doing it big. But that really is what mixed the pot, forcing their hand in that and then not even counting it in the 5 picture deal. Also, I even more doubt that they will allow Disney to make another sequel and on their side produce the film. They wouldn't even support the film I'd imagine.

Anyway, what I'd like to see is Pixar boldy seperating from Disney, to create their own original animations and do dream projects like Brad Bird's Ray Gunn in 2D or 3D. What likely will happen is a bargain. Toy Story 3 may come to happen under Pixar's development, and they will be able to continue creating original stuff with more profits coming to them than previously. They do have a line they won't cross though.

 

[Lil' Dice]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Toy Story 3 is already well into production at Disney.

 

[Memles]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Toy Story 3 is already well into production at Disney.

I couldn't be more aware of that, and I suspect it will stay there. I just want Pixar to sit in and oversee the story/character designs and stuff like that. It isn't releasing until 2008, due to general delays in getting the production started...by that point I think a deal will have been reached and something can be worked out in terms of Pixar being involved in the sequel, if not animating it.

I think they could very well have a deal also, but I really don't see Pixar bending to what Disney wants. If I know Brad Bird, I know that he has a lot of stories planned, and doesn't want to sit around doing the same old same old. Also, I know Pixar didn't want to do Toy Story 2, but did so begrudgingly because Disney said it was a go with or without them. They were actually going to make a straight to dvd/video kind of release before Pixar said if we must do it we're doing it big. But that really is what mixed the pot, forcing their hand in that and then not even counting it in the 5 picture deal. Also, I even more doubt that they will allow Disney to make another sequel and on their side produce the film. They wouldn't even support the film I'd imagine.

See, I don't think it's such of a stretch for Pixar to simply take over the story/design aspect of the films and let the Pixar Sequel Studio animate them. Toy Story 2 was, indeed, a sequel enforced by Disney, but it was an executive decision to make it a theatrical release. While it was being developed they realized that they had a film that was better than a straight-to-video release and thus the decision was made; I seriously doubt that Pixar really needed to lay down the hammer considering the quality of the film. It wasn't counted in the deal, you're correct, and I think that's still a sore spot between the two companies, however I really think that the ideal situation would allow them to explore the characters they wish to explore further while also continuing to create original works.

I don't think it's that Pixar never wants to make sequels because they think each individual franchise is over; I think it is that they'd rather make their own films. And, if they are able to work out a deal that allows them some sort of creative control over the Pixar sequels, I think it could be the best of both worlds. It would continue to allow Pixar to pump out their original films (They have Stanton and Bird sitting idlely with films likely in the pipeline), while allowing their franchises to continue to rake in some cash, some of it likely moving the way of Pixar in the long run. I'm not sure how either side really loses in this situation...I just think that Disney will throw some control of the sequels over to Pixar in a heartbeat if they need it to make a deal.

 

[Lil' Dice]

Pixar has limited involvement in these new productions. Disney still has to pitch their story ideas as a formality, but Pixar is not overseeing the animation.
I had lunch with a couple of the modelers on the project last week

 

[goodcow]

On a related note, I can't believe it's almost been ten years since Toy Story came out. I feel old.

 

[Memles]

Pixar has limited involvement in these new productions. Disney still has to pitch their story ideas as a formality, but Pixar is not overseeing the animation.

Yet. All bets are off once Eisner is gone.

 

[Lil' Dice]

Yet. All bets are off once Eisner is gone.

I hope so.