FE as expected, not attracting many users outside of the series' core fanbase. Sales are about dead even vs Three Houses, which came out 3 1/2 years ago, and released when the Switch install base in Japan was only 8.5 million. I don't know that Nintendo was necessarily expecting it to attract new users, given how focused the marketing was on fan-favorite characters. But maybe if they do eventually work on a follow-up to Three Houses, and reemphasize the story again, it may attract more people outside of the FE base. Probably would be saved for the next-generation hardware, though.
I sort of feel like FE is like Xenoblade, in that B-tier range of Nintendo series, with steady/ consistent numbers for each game, really no drop-off in sales, but new entries never really are successful at bringing in new users. Despite the Switch base being so gigantic.
this is both right and so wrong.
Its true that ENGAGE won't attract a large number of new players(as much as i would like if it did)
But you need to consider how much the series has grown since 2013, Fire Emblem Awakening was a hit after years of the series bombing(Fire Emblem was barely recognized in the west) , and ended up selling 1.9 million units on 3DS, Fire Emblem FATES sold 3 million units across 2/3 versions, no small talk for a dedicated portable game. Then Fire Emblem Three Houses crossed 4 million units, while being one of the ugliest motherfuckers i ever seen on Switch
these are all significant increases for a JRPG strategy game, and note most units sold at FULL price, not a small investment by any means. they only look poor in comparison to mainstream Nintendo series otherwise, not all genres/brands have the same appeal
At this point core gamers are looking forward to moving away from aging Switch graphics and can't stop talking about Switch 2, many others are looking at other titles(see Hogwarts Legacy), Fire Emblem Engage will be 'somewhat' ignored because of this, but it should do strong numbers regardless.
The next Fire Emblem after Engage will feel "new" again and attract more players assuming the Switch 2 is not a colossal failure
Edit:talking about worldwide sales obv
(as for Xenoblade, that game is incredibly time consuming with lots of confusing mechanics and menus,and an artstyle not everybody likes, it sells well for what it is on the Switch, way more than previous generations, its a series that was born on the late years of the Wii, got an spinoff on Wii U and only a port on new 3DSXl,give it some slack)