http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/11/30/news_6114178.html
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O'Rourke said he expects market position to remain similar with the next generation of consoles, which Microsoft is likely to kick off late next year with a new version of the Xbox. Sony will continue to dominate the market, while Nintendo and Microsoft scrap for second place globally.
"They're fairly close for number two, and I think they'll remain that way," he said. "Xbox has done really well in North America, but it hasn't gotten very far in Japan and the rest of Asia. The (Nintendo) GameCube has a solid presence in all three (regional) markets, but they're not really knocking them dead in any of them."
O'Rourke said the biggest challenge for game companies, as they introduce new consoles, will be to get consumers to give up their old ones.
"I think the shipments for the new consoles will be less than current generation, at least initially," he said. "This generation has been so incredibly successful...and a lot of the people who have bought consoles in this cycle are casual gamers who are quite satisfied with what they have now. It's going to be a real challenge to try to convince those people to trade up to the new technology."