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http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/11/30/news_6114178.html

Abit:

O'Rourke said he expects market position to remain similar with the next generation of consoles, which Microsoft is likely to kick off late next year with a new version of the Xbox. Sony will continue to dominate the market, while Nintendo and Microsoft scrap for second place globally.

"They're fairly close for number two, and I think they'll remain that way," he said. "Xbox has done really well in North America, but it hasn't gotten very far in Japan and the rest of Asia. The (Nintendo) GameCube has a solid presence in all three (regional) markets, but they're not really knocking them dead in any of them."

O'Rourke said the biggest challenge for game companies, as they introduce new consoles, will be to get consumers to give up their old ones.

"I think the shipments for the new consoles will be less than current generation, at least initially," he said. "This generation has been so incredibly successful...and a lot of the people who have bought consoles in this cycle are casual gamers who are quite satisfied with what they have now. It's going to be a real challenge to try to convince those people to trade up to the new technology."

 

[sonycowboy]

This year could have been an absolute blowout for hardware with the $149 price point, the PS2 redesign, and the absolute best lineup of games ever.

Nice job screwing it up to both Sony & Microsoft for their shortages.

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

This doesn't surprise me. It's been nearly impossible to find PS2s in a lot of places since the end of Summer. Xbox is only slightly easier to find.

I think a lot of the reason is obvious. Mostly everybody who wants one, already has one.

 

[Gek54]

It's going to be a real challenge to try to convince those people to trade up to the new technology."

Im sure you could have said the exact same thing for the last gen.

 

[mrklaw]

"This generation has been so incredibly successful...and a lot of the people who have bought consoles in this cycle are casual gamers who are quite satisfied with what they have now. It's going to be a real challenge to try to convince those people to trade up to the new technology."

Those 'casual' gamers are quite satisfied with their current technology, and bought it when it was cheap and massmarket.

When the next gen starts it won't be cheap or massmarket. They'll sell to us for the first 12 months, then price it down. Then the casuals will want one.

Its like the standard 5 year cycle. Ours starts from the launch of PS2. Average Joes starts from when PS2 hit $199.

 

[sonycowboy]

Those 'casual' gamers are quite satisfied with their current technology, and bought it when it was cheap and massmarket.

When the next gen starts it won't be cheap or massmarket. They'll sell to us for the first 12 months, then price it down. Then the casuals will want one.

Its like the standard 5 year cycle. Ours starts from the launch of PS2. Average Joes starts from when PS2 hit $199.

Same thing was true last generation. And the one before that.

The hardcore audience is now larger than ever and account for a large percentage of the first two years of sales. So, the buyers who are buying the PS2 & Xbox now, will be buying their Xbox 2 & PS3 four years after they launch.

This is always such a ridiculous argument using todays buyers as the gauge for launch interest.

 

[KeithFranklin]

This doesn't surprise me. It's been nearly impossible to find PS2s in a lot of places since the end of Summer. Xbox is only slightly easier to find.

I think a lot of the reason is obvious. Mostly everybody who wants one, already has one.

This makes no sense. You state that it doesnt suprise you with the sales down,because you cant find the PS2 and the XBOX. Then you state that everybody who wants one has one.

 

[Chi-Town]

It's no great suprise that console sales are down comparitively to previous years. I think the shortage will make it even worse for Sony over the holidays but the PS2 has been down every month this year compared to January thru October of 2003. Gamecube sales only had 2 months where it was higher than last years and they have an especially rough go for November and December becauses sales were so huge last year. Xbox has been higher every month so it'll be interesting to see if they can keep it up for November and December.