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[Kleegamefan]

Bablefished from CeBit:

HD DVD seminar at CEBIT

Greatly unfolds in this session of CeBIT, Blu-ray the Disc alliance (BDA) it may be said crest of wave, Apple the alliance strengthened its strength and the monentum without doubt, but instead HD DVD side appeared to be "lonely" and slient, but this certainly did not indicate HD DVD camp was discouraged. In March 11, HD DVD promotion group(HD DVD -PG) also held a seminar, compares with the BDA release conference, lively insufficient, but obviously is also more practical.

This participation seminar merchant include 4 backbones merchants - Toshiba, NEC, Sanyo(SANYO) and Memory-Tech. But the Toshiba company's representative has not made presentation, but was later participated in the reporterquestion and answer sesseion. In the Toshiba's view, as if enough
has already been said, now the war time-real market test.

Sanyo's representative Y. Tsuchiya emphatically introduced why Sanyo believe HD DVD is more outstanding than BD, more cost-effective. Sanyo will produce HD DVD pick ups for all equipment merchant. It is reported, sole idiode pick ups supported three kind of compact discs forms (CD, DVD, HD DVD ) was ready to take off, and definitely was suitable for the the PC thin driver.

Memory-Tech Corporation's Otsuka narrated HD DVD superiority from disc cost perspective . According to the Otsuka introduction, Memory-Tech had already established 6 HD DVD line in 2004, and 4 more in 2005. At present one-sided double-layer HD DVD(30GB) production cycle already fell to 2.8 seconds with 92-94% good rates, 2.6 seconds production cycles will be realized in May, 2005.

In June, 2005, Memroy-Tech will carry on the improvement to the production line to further to enhance the stability, and will deal with the large-production which will soon begin. But on the other hand, Memory-Tech also will cooperate with other dvd stamp equipment merchant, including Sumitomo, Origin, Singules as well as Hitachi, to renovate current DVD production line to be able to carry HD DVD duplication.

Generally speaking, the people in attendance summarized the HD DVD superiority to lie in:

Lower media (compact disc) cost compares with DVD,

Good compatibility with CD, DVD

HD DVD complete industrial chain has already formed, from the HD DVD production line to the final hardware player.

HD DVD merchant representative answers reporter's questions



(In as follows, black color represents question)

Stand alone HD DVD product (player, video recorder) have HDMI (HD media connection), but PC machine will not be able to have this connection, therefore future whether will have the attachment the plan to appear?


NEC European company's T.Nedder indicated that, any matter does not have finally to decide, we have continuously waited till in 2005, but PC driver also may use in the data storage with HD DVD, perhaps some one kind of possibility is the PC driver needs Internet to appraise broadcasts HD DVD movie, but this will wait for the DVD forum the finally decision.

How about HD DVD future blueprint will be?



T.Nedder indicated that, PC driver will go on the market with HD DVD-ROM in September, 2005, PC HD DVD-R writer will be promoted in the same year in December. But as to the disc and the driver price, T.Nedder has not produced the explicit answer, but he introduced, according to market research, the user hoped first generation of HD DVD-R rom price about 500 US dollars, HD DVD -ROM driver price about 300 US dollars, but HD DVD-R discs to have to maintain at 1.3 times the existing DVD+R DL price . Obviously, this price regarding the average consumer is very high, but this also normal for a new product from a new standard.


Moreover, T.Nedder indicated that, the DVD forum hoped second-generation HD DVD form may achieve two-sided double-layer altogether 60GB the estimated achieves this goal in 2007-2008 year.



A HD DVD huge superiority lies in it to be allowed the DVD production line with little adjustment then to use for to duplicate HD DVD compact disc, When 60GB is promoted, what will happen to existing HD DVD produciton line?



Memory-Tech M. Otsuka indicated, DVD forum this plans from to the Hollywood movie system film executive's request - longer time movie application. HD DVD data storage has the possibility to have to use the different production line and the physical form, therefore the user possibly needs to be compelled to purchase the new driver, this time frame is 10 years from now. We did not think this can be a question, please remembered the first generation of DVD player still can plays DVD from today, but in the storage domain, HD DVD writers will expect a faster renewal frequency.

Does the driver producer have the possibility to produce one kind of HD DVD and the BD entire compatible machine kind?


NEC Corporation's T.Nedder indicated that, this is an extremely interesting question, but these two kind of disc different in too many ways, therefore technical it will be very difficulty, universal player will not be able to be extremely successful, moreover it will increase cost, I believed no user will choose it. Please remember, the equipment manufactory focus on a reasonable selling price with mass production scale.

How does the user made his own HD content? At present the Sattelite receiver does not have USB/SCSI/Firewire this kind of connection.


The DVD forum is negoeiating with Sattelite receiver manufactory , We can have a final decision in June, 2005 General DVD forum congress.

When may the European users enjoy to the HD content?


T.Nedder indicated that, the first European TV HD channel will broadcast in November, 2005, but in 2006 Germany's World Cup soccer game comprehensively will advance European the HDTV program progress.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Toshiba digital medianetwork company chairman

The chairman has gave a subject lecture on CES 2005, explicit pointed out the Toshiba future the HD strategy will be SED (TV) +HD DVD (Disc), from this also will be allowed to see Toshiba's determination in HD DVD format. How does he view the Blu-ray Disc?

Says according to you, HD DVD machine will be released in 2005, is this true?

From the hardware perspective, the pick ups, the host control chip, firmware and so on absolutely does not have any problem. But the primary undecided factor probably is the content protection system(AACS), at present its standard does not have finalized, but the movie must receive the protection, therefore we must wait for AACS's progress, this also involves to the correlation hardware design (for example host controls chip AACS function).

According to the current AACS progress, will it affects HD DVD player goes to market this year?

Now according to the AACS plan, it should be finalized in March, but now still in progress, if finalized in April a manuscript will have the possibility to affect HD DVD product development, plan to release within 2005 can be postponed. But, these all are the external factors, our HD DVD -PG must focus on difficult problem during the commercialized process

In this January , you also indicated HD DVD video recorder will also be release in 2005, is this possible?


On hardware, it is very similar to stand alone player, but software might be much more complex .
To be honest, if the resource cannot fulfill the purpose, we will first guaranteed the stand alone player, the recorder will be a quarter later.



Assume all the deadline can be successfully met, what would be the anticipated sales scale? Your firm's CIO once indicated that, in 2006 HD DVD equipment sales volume will achieved 1 million, year after next(2008)will achieved 3 million, what are the basis for these numbers?

To my expectation, some 2 million to 3 million will be the add up of PC drivers, stand alone player and recorder. We also are paying attention to the market trend also, the HD television sales quotation sometimes can surmount the forecast, this is possible with the pleasure to enjoy the HD. At present DVD correlation electric appliance market year sales volume is 40 million, we estimated future HD DVD will be able toaccount for 5%, will be 2 million,PC drivers will also have 1 million scales.

Take a look back in the past, VHS and the DVD machine began to boost popularity when sales volume broke through 2 million in the North America market, if this rule were correct, in 2007 the HD DVD sales volume will surpass 2 million.

But,again in the North America market, it actually took DVD 3 years to broke through 2 million/years.
(actually was a littel bit more than two year), could HD DVD reduce this record? Therefore, in 2006 by 500 US dollars sales prices is must goal.

What is the HD DVD machine future price plan?

Our goal is achieved as soon as possible 2 million years markets scale, plans for this us in 2006 the fourth quarter reduces the machine price to 499 US dollars, to further accelerates this market, but 299 US dollars will be the next goal, estimated realizes from 2007 to 2008.

In rapidly reduces the cost of HD DVD player, is the light emitting diode cost the bottleneck?

About the light emitting diode, Don't worry even a litte bit. At present, uses in HD DVD player with the output is 20 mw , the end product rate is also good, moreover must emphasize, this technology advancement not only pushed by us, BD camp's Sony and the Matushita electric appliance is also worrying about this, the similar question also is puzzling them.

I heard HD DVD require more accurate time tracing precision and harder than the Blue ray disc, is this ture? Can this affect the cost?

I am responsible for the development of HD DVD, I have not aware of any report related to this, it is simply a rumor which is certainly not true.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Toshiba digital media network company chairman: My view of Blu-ray Disc

HD DVD give one the impression that it is concentrates one media distribution market, namely uses in the movie distribution. But its competitor - Blu-ray Disc then is always emphasizing the broad application scope, including video , video recorder, camera, mechanical games and so on. How then Toshiba's view on this?

Although Toshiba predicte in CES a 1TB hard disk capacity with HD DVD video recorder to be release at the end of the year, but I thought on the other hand, the HD DVD-R application might be postpone compares to HD DVD rom, how HD DVD camp views the video recording market demand?

I actually want to ask "why the recording to disc(DVD) function are not commonly used in DVR?" Because user has a larger capacity hard disk, moreover along with time passing, the people need to be allowed to rewrite these obsolete contents, in this aspect hard disk is extremely convenient. Certainly, if the user wants to back up the the program ,they need DVD and HD DVD . But, with the hard disk/DVD/HD DVD mix type of DVR, how much will this back up demand be is worth pondering. Therefore, distributes the media as the movie is the market which HD DVD first considered.

But,let alone the one-sided single-layer HD DVD-RW compact disc which capacity is 20GB, double-layer to be 32GB, speaking of HD DVD-R, one-sided single-layer 15GB, Do you consider that to be too small or lame?

Is this case, yes the double-layer structure is necessary, we also close to complete this aspect and the design. I must emphasize this certainly not for the war between BD and HD DVD, but it is the result of two kind of different business strategies. In the video recording domain, we regard the hard disk to be very important, our hard disk capacity unceasingly growing, we suppose the application pattern is mainly uses the hard disk to do the video recording, with little/occasional uses of back up to the optical disc. The hard disk cost is lower and lower, then is video recorder all time all must use the compact disc continuously to preserve the program? This is a question which I must say. Toshiba is comes the structure different seeing and hearing product in the digital broadcast time strategy by the hard disk, it can cover the more video recording demand, but when user must have to back up.then to the double-layer HD DVD-R disc.(Edits the note: Toshiba had recently issued in Japan reelease the hard disk video recorder RD-H1, ordering extremely enthusiastically, takes the lead 2,000 which prepares to go on the market within one day to sell in advance finished, may see with the hard disk carries on the video recording the demand scale)

In the North America market, it seems true that very little user exercise optical back up, and only does in the wrong time video recording (looks at one chanel when record the other) when only then can use the hard disk. But this is a giant market environment background difference, in the North America market, the multi- frequency channels development, very many rebroadcasts the program, moreover the North America market DVD price is very cheap, this and the Japanese market is different. Therefore, is not certainly urgent to meet the video recording demand.

Japan's video frequency content by television program primarily, therefore has a lot of video recorder users, not too many will record to DVD, instead the user first records on the hard disk, then burn to the DVD, But if the DVD is very cheap, then this kind of practice will further to reduce.

In Japan, set of soap operas compact disc prices about 30,000 Japanese Yen, a DVD price are 4,000 Japanese Yen, obviously Japan's DVD selling price is expensive, this also created a huge rental market, but the price factor also will be able to affect the North America market future trend, if HD DVD compact disc price could maintain at the DVD price level, then the compact disc video recording market will not be able to change in a big way.

Regarding BD to be standard, if in 5 years ago it will be the correct direction

The BDA member continuously is propagandizing the BD compact disc standard application domain broadness, like HD camera, mechanical games and so on, not merely limited to content distribution, regarding this what is the Toshiba's view ? How did you look to the BD multi-purpose application characteristic?

They (BD) said these widespread uses, all are not actually fresh. The camera application has been also proposed at the DVD forum, but directly records the HD content to a the 8cm compact disc bear that much importance? Such " new" application, certainly cannot be understand by me. I believed that, besides the movie distribution, no application is must have to use the compact disc.

For instance the camera, 2.5 inches hard disks will achieve above 300GB in 2010, then how BD are going to compare the superiority with them? If in 5 years ago, the BD design idea may say it is correct, but the present hard disk in expense electron domain development, USB 2.0 and so on the connection popularization, caused the market environment and the rule has to make a change.

In the domestic electric appliances domain, the BD camp's expectation provides the different digital product, they use the same media, and is connected through the network, take large capacity BD as the center, carries on sharing, the realization network digital home environment.

I heard HD DVD and the BD design idea is not the same?

Before I took charge of the Toshiba digital media network company, I managed the semiconductor department, cooperates with Sony to develops the Cell processor together. Regarding HD DVD , possibly some people can say that, at the such small capacity, it is a very stupid design, and you are also stubborn. But in fact, if you are managing an enterprise, and tranquilly looked this matter, you can discover HD DVD's development direction, in the long run is reasonable and is the practical technology. The compact disc main purpose is the to distribute movie, probably also includes a bit of back up application. Does it really has other uses?

Sony Corporation plans in the next generation PlayStation mechanical games uses the BD compact disc, this is a noticeable application domain. Although the cost burden can aggravate, but it also supports BD playback, this is also possible to be able to help the BD acceleration popularization.

Considered at the semiconductor enterprise the cooperation relations, we should wish PS3 to sell successfully. But compares with PS2, the market environment had the very big difference. As when the PS2 was introduced to the market, DVD already gain popularity in the North America market, in this kind of situation, the PS2 game function and the DVD these two kind of enticements added together, increased user's interest, thus has initiated the PS2 success and the DVD further popularization, but PS3 was starts, not to have the ready-made BD market upholstery from the beginning, PS3 to be very difficult in the BD promotion aspect prospect to say.

If succeeds, meant rich income, if is defeated, will obey the market the choice

If the most domestic electric appliances producer has chosen BD in the future, then Toshiba will certainly be the leader status in HD DVD hardware domain

In in this decision next generation format War, the most formidable match is Sony and the Matushita electric appliance company, but they are on the BD side. Therefore if HD DVD wins, we will become the biggest victor, will obtain the rich profit (a BD side merchant to face keen competition). My here must emphasize, the user first pays attention is obtains the quality to be good but the price inexpensive next generation compact disc, the brand importance compares with it, is secondary.

Does the Toshiba so intense confidence, what reason originate from?

I thought is customer's demand, finally will manifest the media the value, said to us, the so-called customer will be the content supplier and the consumer. Bilateral demand precise response final value, although has risk - HD DVD and the BD competition, but HD DVD wins is inevitable, the related part cost will cause BD the market to be very difficult to establish.

Our assumption is when duplicates a disc, HD DVD and the BD cost difference is in 50 cents, regarding the final compact disc price, this 50 cents did not means anything to the end consumer, but to the distributor, 50 cents represented the significance huge difference, if BD-ROM could do the massive inexpensive productions, moreover the BD player also had a lower price, then certainly the capacity lower HD DVD standard will be defeated, our HD DVD service also immediately stopped, but I believed firmly this will not happen.

Present, when the market temporarily favors HD DVD , how compromised plan supports BD regarding these the domestic electric appliances production chamber of commerce to have, carries on wins over?

If in the BD camp's main domestic electric appliances producers want to enter HD DVD market, and its standpoint has the change, will be able to revise HD DVD the authorized overhead construction, and will reconsider the sharing patent question. We must guarantee this is for the compact disc provision of service service, rigorously divides the benefit assignment the overhead construction, thus becomes well-mannered to obtain the special authorized permission income the organization, this also is my diligently goal.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Toshiba digital media network company CTO- Yamada: No longer cared about BD

Because the yamada is the Toshiba digital media network company's CTO, therefore also concentrates
on the area of technology when interviewing.

The Warner company announced at the end of this year it will promote 53 HD DVD movie, do you think the deadline will be met?

Content provider decided the final issue title quantity, this time table does not including HBO and the new line cinema, Warner proposed alone to distributes 50 movies, and distribution timetable has also been announced. If the everything goes smooth, I thought the future will be able to have more HD DVD program to flow to the market.

Does Toshiba have plans to develops HD editing tools for the market, or unites with other third party merchants, for instance SONIC?

This kind of tool already carried by SONIC, although the first edition could not realize all HD DVD interactive functions, but it will gradually carry on the enhancement. At present already had some companies to make simple presentation demonstration, SONIC Corporation has been accelerating to develop HD DVD creation tool, It will be published in appropriate time frame.

Matushita electric appliance company is developing BD with SONIC cooperation to creat a tool which enable one key shift between DVD and BD creation, Does HD DVD also has a similar idea?

Our development is separated with DVD.

At the end of this year, HD DVD must enter the North America market, but looked by the large-scale cargo flowing experience, should have to prepare for in 6-7 month which produces goods, whether guaranteed goes on the market in American synchronization? Or can do limits the quantity limits the area to sell?

The HD DVD player we showed at the CES 2005 is very similar to the final product, therefore the quantity produces certainly does not have the question, certainly, although we cannot say all specifications all already determined, this was because some specifications have not determined(e.g AACS). Once the correlation standard can be established, I want to be allowed to make the genuine satisfying product.

Another thing people always concern about is: when HD DVD software product goes on the market, how can their quality be? Although the system film executives all have own HD DVD manufacture equipment, but we knew the quality level is different, can because hastily goes on the market affects the final picture quality?

Recently, the HD television and the movie produce/mastering technology are already gradually mature, each company had their own HD quality database, the natural quality level is grasped by various companies. Among this, obviously, if this program itself is HD, the HD DVD manufacture will be extremely easy.



At the release conference which HD DVD promotion group(HD DVD -PG) establishes, once announced will realize the royal purple light emitting diode internal supply, how much costs will then be able to reduce?

We 2,003 (in 2003 the Japanese electron unfolded) in CEATEC on have published the royal purple light emitting diode, but will unfold in the position in HD DVD , three companies had all demonstrated royal purple laser, after realization interior supplies, its price will be lower than 50 US dollars.

Toshiba declared that, first generation of HD DVD video compact disk machine goes on the market the price is 1,000 US dollars (real price is 999 US dollars), how many then can tell me the profit to be able to have?

In fact,almost no profit, because this is decided in the very great degree by the blue color light emitting diode cost, if can fall to 50 US dollars below, then profit will appear.

Toshiba indicated that,at the end of 2005, the player will simultaneously go on the market in Japan and North Americam, will you be able to comment on the market plan in Japan?

Japanese native content provider response slightly slow, therefore loses some proper time, this is worth reconsidering. This Hollywood content provider already has obviously concentrated more strengths in HD DVD , at present the digital creation animated cartoon has the possibility to walk at HD movie front, because in manufacture aspect easier somewhat, this although can go on the market HD in the fourth quarter in Japanese synchronization the DVD program, but Japanese market overall should see less software than North American.



There are also many content provider supports the BDA camp, how does HD DVD establish its own superiority status?

At present, BD has many matters which has not landed on feet, so far, they were still consult. But we already produced front end user's player. I thought at present there is no war, at present it is our sole stage.

You also participate in the various company's conference, after Warner announced the content release plan, can frankly chat about your own feeling?

I thought we grasped the right direction, this was may be easier because of HD DVD -ROM by the low cost duplication production, and the correlation standard is officially authorized.(although not the case with record format) but if each ROM compact disc duplication cost is higher than 50 Japanese Yen(0.50 us dollor), then will depart from with the reality demand, in the large scale production especially so, I think in the cost aspect, HD DVD's superiority to BD will always be maintained, this may also be the reason why Warner did not chose BD.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Toshiba digital media network company CTO- : Compatible with BD is difficult


It is well known, HD DVD and BD had greatly different structure, and this also created huge difference in BD and HD DVD player design. When the industry always pays attention to the compatible product , what is your(CTO) view on this?



The HD DVD plate piece structure and DVD are same, but BD and HD DVD manifests the huge difference in the correlation domain. The 0.1mm protector design simple paid no attention to the nature and bear too much risk.

The HD DVD design idea is the low production cost, but Sony Corporation the BD-ROM production line which in builds in Cinram Corporation, may produce a BD-ROM compact disc in 4 seconds, whether this did mean HD DVD the cost superiority is only temporary?

The compact disc produces the actual performance certainly not merely is the production cycle, but lies in under the corresponding compact disc structure comprehensively to cut the operation the maturity, as well as good rate control. If production cycle short, but good rate is low, also is does not have the significance. Usual, the BD compact disc must carry on the comprehensive examination, because will have to guarantee thickness error in 3 microns, but this seriously will affect BD-ROM the production cost.

Toshiba before also devotes to develops the 0.1mm protector plan, however the present has chosen the 0.6mm design proposal, is this indicate that Toshiba thought former is 0.1mm is not reasonable?

We choose 0.6mm the plan, is because we discovered the 0.1mm plan causes the compact disc to be unable to carry on the inexpensive production, if links up with the price can feel is very unreasonable. The price may be ok in the recording optical media market, but in the case of movie softeware distribution, the cost must have to maintain at the low level.

On the other hand, the HD DVD production cost and DVD are the same, which make us to think the 0.1mm compact disc system pays no attention to the nature in the design.

Among content provider who support HD DVD, the universal corporation has request money during the negotiation with BD camp, , afterwards it is rejected by the BD camp. During the its negotiation with HD DVD camp, have you receives the similar request for money?

We do not have this kind of bond contract safe fund, we do not worry Warner negotiate with BDA camp. Before this, the universal corporation once achieved with the SACD camp on 500 programs agreements, and able to obtained the corresponding bond contract safe fund. The result, the development certainly is not satisfying.

Present, next generation standard already see little chance of have one format to begin, how then the consumer have to choice? Do you have any plan to solve the problem?

What do you expect me to say? I certainly hoped these support BD to use HD DVD specification, because if the application domain is same, the cost is low obviously occupies the superiority.

Although looked from the history, indeed is the big capacity always wins the competition, but LD (Laser Disc) actually is an exception, its broadcast time is short, but still has defeated competitor - VHD, therefore, if the demand recorded time may be satisfied, moreover it may use soft packing, in the capacity superiority will have the possibility to be replaced by other factors.

Video recording application? Said by HD DVD-RW, one-sided single-layer 20GB, one-sided double-layer 32GB, How could you say this capacity is sufficient?

If you are a video recording fan, truly needs the greatly easy compact disc, then chooses BD, however, BD popularization is difficult, any kind of BD disc is expensive.

Specially the double-layered disc, must look who can largely reduce the cost, if is one-sided single-layer HD DVD-RW, its good rate will be better than early DVD-RAM, and double-layered HD DVD-RW will be also easier to produce than BD-RE, although the production difficulty also will became high.

HD DVD -RW and DVD-RAM are same, both uses Land-Groove track recording method, this causes it to be very difficult to design the double-layer disc, therefore is double-layer HD DVD-RW really feasible? Moreover, the HD DVD-RW single-layer and the double-layer capacity are not in proportion, does this means changed the track spacing? Or has used the partial perimeter design?

In Land-Groove - the trench recording way, between the recording level interference is an important question which appears, very obvious, its solution difficulty is higher than the traditional vibration type trench recording way, therefore we are carrying on the confirmation to the double-decked 32GB plan, which may realize immediately.

Is inconsistent as for first with the second layer capacity, is is because of the track spacing and the periphery perimeter designs. HD DVD does not make the unreasonable pursue in the recording technology aspect. We follow are the low cost manufacture principle, but in the natural price compared to the aspect, HD DVD-RW possibly cannot conform to the requirement, although in the future cost competition, we still have the advantage status.

HD DVD-R capacity is one-sided single-layer 15GB, this is not certainly enough regarding HD video recording when compares to BD-R, what is the HD DVD-R superiority?

A HD DVD-R big superiority is may use existing CD-R or the DVD-R dye carries on the production, but the BD-R dye must apply the new sputtering craft, this kind of difference also will manifest in the cost. Certainly, the 15GB capacity, all will think is insufficient, future also will realize one-sided double-layered engraves record.

Moreover must emphasize, one-sided single-layer HD DVD-R and HD DVD -RW already had ten companies to complete the production test, moreover the initial sample was good rate also was by the confirmation is extremely outstanding, also further will enhance in the commercialized stage.

Although so, US and Japan all began broadcasting the high bit rate HD broadcast, do you really think the HD DVD capacity is sufficient?

The vertical magnetic recording technology already realized on the hard disk, it will provide the bigger storage capacity, we thought what the videorecorder were more will be first uses the hard disk to make the primitive record, then carried on the again code(to edit the note: Transfers high efficiency MPEG-4 AVC or the VC-1 code from the broadcast code which HD DVD uses)records HD DVD compact disc. But in the future 3 years, the semiconductor technology progress will cause the real-time compact disc code video recording possibly to become.

Do you have had thought about developing one kind of HD DVD and the BD entire compatible driver?

This is not a direction which we cared about, this possibly supports the matter which BD the company must consider, because BD because the media high cost cannot popularize, therefore wants to achieve with HD DVD is compatible.

Regarding BD, I thought it enters the market the key to lie in the video recorder domain. Although BD and HD DVD has used the same laser photosource, but because the protector thickness difference enables it to realize compatibly through objective lens, therefore, you possibly knew, if wants to realize this point, must change the objective lens the design as well as the correlation auxiliary circuit, but present this certainly is not essential.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Summary: Hard disk and cost - HD DVD two big backers

Always pays attention to HD DVD and the BD competition friends all should be clear, said from the technology, HD DVD and BD compare, basic nothing can take, but also has manifested its practical one side which gets rid of. Moreover when unifies with the future family video and music application, HD a DVD side also pays attention to and the third party influence unifies makes up own insufficiency, and opens the innovation the application pattern.

From above ·Ã̸, we can clear feeling HD DVD pursue - that be the cost. Although we now did not know HD DVD propagandizes the cost superiority as is big as any degree, but wantonly propagandizes the technical superiority with a BD side to be same, believed this is the HD DVD biggest magic weapon. But in the concrete application, we also discovered, its host pushes the idea and BD are different. HD DVD camp believed that, the compact disc biggest use is the film festival goal release, the video recording, the compact disc engraves records is only the secondary application. Indeed, take DVD as the example, if with may record the DVD-ROM sales volume the type DVD plate piece the sales volume relativity, must know in 2004 whole year the DVD-ROM video and music compact disc sales volume has surpassed 1.3 billion, is may record the compact disc market scale not to be able to compare, but HD DVD has held this point, it also was the biggest market. Key wins which in this market, without doubt is the cost superiority, when the cost superiority is very big, makes up in the capacity the inferiority, this also is the HD DVD strategy.

In on the other hand, because may record the form the capacity to be insufficient, HD DVD have please come the hard disk help in the video recording domain, and the propaganda so-called "the Toshiba video recording idea" - first transcribes the program on the hard disk, will only have the extremely essential program to preserve on the compact disc to carry on the archive, this greatly alleviated the user to be possible without doubt to record the compact disc capacity to HD DVD the demand. But for this, Toshiba also prepared the 1TB hard disk to give the user. The compact disc camera domain favors which in very many people, Toshiba also thought may replace by the hard disk, but Toshiba also is such does,

The hard disk application involvement greatly strengthened the HD DVD application elasticity without doubt, although BD also may introduce the hard disk to apply leads a cheer, but so long as can weaken the compact disc in this kind of application function, the HD DVD goal basically had achieved, in may record the domain after all, BD has the obvious superiority, may duplicate write the specification in particular (RW), this aspect HD DVD cost superiority as if also is reducing.

Has the opportunity also to have the insufficiency

In the market competition, HD DVD as if also is in a more advantageous position, this is because a BD side hardware merchant multitudinous, although strength formidable, may in the technical development by the powerhouse posture appearance, but capture in the final market, a BD side merchant also all will become respective competitor, but the market limited sales volume will will certainly to limit various merchants to produce goods the quantity, although the whole technical strength will possibly be able to reduce the cost aspect to play the role, but if will produce goods the quantity not to be high, will be unable to form the scale effect, the cost reduces the scope to be very difficult to guarantee. Instead observes HD a DVD side, at present only has Toshiba, three oceans, Tom abdicates three companies, also meant respective produces goods the quantity possibly to achieve a better level, thus is helpful to reduces the production cost.

Moreover in history, also indeed has appeared the combat example which defeats a numerically superior enemy, that is LD defeats VHD. In 1983 JVC promoted the VHD standard, and obtained including Sony, Matushita, the EMI 13 weights extremely hardware and the content provider's support, but finally defeated in has on one's own promoted the LD form under the cutting edge company foot. But this can repeat? (Certainly, VHD then design had is congenitally deficient, goes study when took, reads takes and media medium must contact)

But, HD DVD certainly is not does not have the hidden danger, PC to engrave records in the market, only if HD DVD cost superiority astonishing, otherwise very is possible is not the BD match, but from the DVD time trained user, mostly likes the large capacity compact disc, this obviously is to HD DVD disadvantageous. On the other hand, the cost superiority also has the time limit, engraves from present DVD records the compact disc and in the CD-R price contrast, we can realize this kind of rule, along with the application popularization (BD definitely is has refused stubbornly), BD product (hardware + compact disc) the cost surely can gradually drop, although HD DVD possibly drops quickly, but always has the agent, but the history tells us, this kind of agent to finally all extremely will approach, at the appointed time HD DVD might be short the most important backer.

Obviously, according to HD DVD camp's view, BD a little likes DVD time as if DVD-RAM, in the media release, the PC application domain is not successful, finally greatly puts the extraordinary splendor in the videorecorder market. Or said lets BD be in a so-called high end domain, but all these must establish above the function foundation which the HD DVD two big backers displays should have. Now, the product has not gone on the market, we cannot see HD DVD said the superiority, everybody at present or occupies in the mouth water battle, when to true trend market, how can the competition situation? Lets us wait for in the suspicion.

 

[koam]

Can you sum that up in 2-3 lines? I got lost somewhere in the Japanesse -> Techincal English -> English translation.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Here is what they are saying, in a nutshell:

HD-DVD is cheaper

Toshiba Guy worked on Cell before going to HD-DVD dept.

Unless AACS is finalized soon, everthing (HD-DVD and Blu-ray) will be delayed until 2006

First-gen HD-DVD-ROM player is $999 will be $499 by Q4 2006 and $299 2007/2008.

They dont think PlayStation 3 will sell well :lol

 

[IJoel]

They dont think PlayStation 3 will sell well :lol

Actually what I think they said was that they don't consider BRD to be a key promotional issue for the PS3 and thus won't have the impact that DVD had on the sales.

They also said they wish it success as they're in the CELL venture together with Sony, but the market conditions will be significantly different at the introduction of BRD compared to when DVD was introduced in US.

I might've missed where they said PS3 will not sell well though, as I just skimmed through it.

 

[Diablos]

Blu-Ray will end up kicking HD-DVD's ass - at least, I hope. It's foolish to adopt HD-DVD as the standard, this just means that a few years later we'll need yet another format. Blu-Ray has so much capacity that we will not have worry about another disc format for a long, long time. Considering the advancements in hi-def television, video quality, etc. it's just stubborn to settle for HD-DVD and not Blu-Ray. Who cares if Blu-Ray is more expensive at the beginning? By the time everyone will want to make the switch, it'll be cheap enough...

 

[Groder Mullet]

Considering the installed base blu-ray will have with the PS3, HD-DVD doesn't have a chance in hell.

 

[Blackcherry]

But if the promised Blu-Ray in PS3 is not included, it might be totally different for the HD media competition.

PS3 with Blu-Ray: Mass market will have an Blu-Ray player already in the most poplular console machine, which might sell 50M+ if it's not expensive. HD-DVD might be crushed since Xbox 2 might not support that format.

PS3 less Blu-Ray: It will be, IMO, the same confrontation as the DVD +/- but a really winner is going to come out since they are two different technology(data size, hardware, etc)

HD-DVD might have a chance since it's cheaper.

That's my 3 cents

 

[VPhys]

So will HD-DVD really max out at 30GB? What about BRD, how high will the capacity be?



Is BRD a joint venture, or is it 100% Sony? I simply worry that if Sony has complete control then prices will never be truly low as Sony will want to dip its beak into the royalties.

Look at Sony's Memory Sticks, over 10 years old and they are STILL twice as expensive as the compeition.

 

[Nerevar]

Considering the installed base blu-ray will have with the PS3, HD-DVD doesn't have a chance in hell.

a split HD video format? I don't think either one has a chance in hell outside of the high end market.

 

[Dreamfixx]

What all this, so we're already giving up on DVD? Fuck that. I think 90% of the nation including me all agree that our DVD players will be here for a long time.

 

[Ghost]

You might feel differently in 2008, thats what they are banking on.

 

[chinch]

They dont think PlayStation 3 will sell well :lol

where did they say that?

this is more of your selective sony reading

 

[Nerevar]

You might feel differently in 2008, thats what they are banking on.

And by then HVD (or something else) will be ready to be a commercial product, and consumers won't care about this iteration of HD video formats because a split market will ensure neither one is a comprehensive format. My *bold* prediction (sarcasm) is that both fail and the marketplace is still dominated by DVDs for the next 8 years or so, until a true, unified HD video standard emerges. But if you guys all want to go crazy about the next generation laser disc, be my guest.

 

[mrklaw]

PCs will decide. PCs have HD displays these days, and you'll only upgrade a dual-layer DVD burner if it offers significantly more storage. Double doesn't do it, but 25-50GB does.

Bluray wins!

 

[acklame]

Is BRD a joint venture, or is it 100% Sony? I simply worry that if Sony has complete control then prices will never be truly low as Sony will want to dip its beak into the royalties.

Didn't you asked similar question at blu-ray threads before?

Again, blu-ray board of directors are: Apple, Dell, HP, Hitachi, LG, Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic, Pioneer, Phillips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, TDK, Thomson, Walt Disney, 20th Century Fox.

 

[DCharlie]

the porn industry will decide

 

[MightyHedgehog]

IMO:

The less expensive-to-produce-and-purchase media type will win out. Porn publishers will adopt HD-DVD if PS3 fails to have an included BRD-ROM player or if it's sales are sluggish. Movie studios will follow suit. However, both will languish in relatively pitiful sales and adoption by content providers, IMO. DVD is still too new for too many people. 2010 is probably around when HD format media will actually be mainstream. By then, I'd imagine, there will be updated specs for the two media formats and probably a superior competitor vying for the crown of next mainstream media format.

 

[chinch]

the real irony is the premature hd-dvd/blu-ray release is that both formats will make alot of noise when PS3 is released - assuming movies are available in 2006 as scheduled. But other than cut into DVD sales by confusing customers... people sit and watch like the SACD/DVD-Audio debacle.

until hollywood releases EXCLUSIVE content on hd-dvd/blu-ray, these software titles will be hidden on storeshelves, if at all.

and then you have the HDTV adopters who might not be able to watch HDTV content via component inputs... rotf at the fiasco.

 

[borghe]

I agree. Everyone who says "this or that one will win out" is missing the overall picture. DVD-A and SACD sound NOTICEABLY netter than CD. Even to the untrained ear people generally notice a difference from standard CD.

People generally do NOT notice a difference from HD filmed content to SD filmed content. Some people see it, others don't.

So you are trying to tell me that when two noticeably better audio formats languish in high-end oblivion, that the general consumer WILL adopt one or two "not as noticeably" better video formats over DVD?

The only way either format stands a chance is if CE manufacturers follow suit with DVD +/- and SACD/DVD-A and releases a universal player. That will guarantee that both don't die out, though at this point I still don't see either of them taking off in a big way.

And in no way am I knocking HD video.. I have been watching it for over three years now. I have been running my computer on it for almost two years (running games out to my TV at 1280x720).. I am just saying that at the same time I also supported laserdisc for 3-4 years and that never went anywhere either despite being much better than VHS.

We'll see, though at this point my guess is that neither will dominate and at best they will become only slightly larger than D-VHS/DTheater.

 

[DonasaurusRex]

I dunno im kinda leaning towards whichever format is backwards compatible. If HD DVD can meet the specs for HD content, is cheaper, and backwards compatible...wheres the discussion here. The guy already said with double sided HD DVD they could get upwards of 60GB out of HD DVD double sided and dual layer. Im thinking thats gonna be good for a while here for most things, why pay more to manufacture, buy, and forego backwards compatibility? If Blu Ray has a backwards compatible player then more power to it.

 

[Nerevar]

I agree. Everyone who says "this or that one will win out" is missing the overall picture. DVD-A and SACD sound NOTICEABLY netter than CD. Even to the untrained ear people generally notice a difference from standard CD.

People generally do NOT notice a difference from HD filmed content to SD filmed content. Some people see it, others don't.

Is that a joke? I've not had a single person who saw my TV comment on how much better movies look on HBO-HD or INHD or something like that over DVDs. I would disagree with you very much that the difference between DVD-Audio or SACD is more noticable to the untrained person than the difference between SD and HD film content. Remember, 90% of perception by humans is in the eyes - you will notice visual differences much more than audio differences by nature.

 

[borghe]

Showpieces I have directly compared with many other people (remember, I have Tivo so I have all of these showpieces saved for demonstration purposes)

Ghost in the Shell 2 Innocence PPV
a few random episodes of CSI:LV from last season and the DVD set
Shrek
Shrek 2
Ice Age
Tomb Raider
Charlie's Angels
Fifth Element

Also a ton of non-OAR stuff from HBO like:
Episode II
Daredevil
Swordfish
Matrix (all of them)
etc

My Tivo has 63 hours and pretty much all of it is used for showcasing HD. I also have about 150 DVDs of archived stuff from my tivo, each program taking up between 2-5 DVDs each (about 1-2 hours to load a movie back into my Tivo.. around 45 minutes to load a TV show).

I show these to everyone who comes by. PArtially to brag, partially to introduce them to HD. The majority of responses are "Wow, that looks nice!!"

but here is the trick. I then put in the same program on DVD.. mind you I run a Panasonic RP-56K which pretty much has one of the better pictures you will get from a 480p player.. and they can't tell the difference. I have them watch the DVD (without telling them), then switch over to HD, and most can't tell the difference in a blind test...

So people may tell you that they see a difference, and maybe they do.. but if you did a blind A/B test, you will find out (as I have) that most people really can't tell the difference. Not saying the difference isn't there, just not noticeable enough to justify, and here is the main point, spending $300-1000 for a new player and likely $25-30+ for software. When players are $100 and software prices are down to $16 for new releases then it will change (if it ever gets there), but until then, it will languish.

As for DVD-A/SACD, again, from my own informal testing, there is a more noticeable difference. When I play a high-res clip (Fleetwood Mac, Thriller, Police, Floyd, etc) and then the CD, I can't think of a single person who didn't correctly point out the SACD/DVD-A version. And yes that is using 5-channel stereo for the CD releases. Every person so far has pointed out that the high res versions sound much better. HD, not so much. There has been plenty of wrong guesses (emphasis on GUESSES) as to which is the HD version.

Mind you I am talking about filmed content. HD Video is picked out and complimented every time. I am also not talking about SD TV compared to HD TV nor am I talking about shoddy low-bitrate DVD releases with nice HD transfers. I am talking about gorgeous DVD transfers compared to the HD transfer on HBO, Showtime, or the broadcast networks.

 

[VPhys]

Didn't you asked similar question at blu-ray threads before?

No.

So does that mean all those companies have an equal stake. Or is Sony the boss and the others just give their input?

 

[DaveH]

I remember hearing somewhere that the industry hopes both succeeds. That HD-DVD succeeds in Asia because it's cheaper. So that the pirate industry there is stuck on that format. Then the rest of the world uses Blu-Ray. Sort-of like (but not exactly) the VCD/DVD divide.

 

[Warm Machine]

Are we talking 1280x720 HD or 1920x1080 here? A true 1080p source on a native 1080p monitor is going to look far better than a DVD on a native 480p EDTV or even upscaled to 720p or 1080i/p. Especially on a display large enough to resolve that much detail. A side by side comparison would be night and day.

 

[acklame]

No.

So does that mean all those companies have an equal stake. Or is Sony the boss and the others just give their input?

Blu-Ray was co-developed by Matsushita & Sony, and the majority of those board of directors have been with the group since the very beginning.

 

[Soybean]

I was a pretty ardent Blu-ray supporter, but now I'm not sure I care. I just want one to clearly win so I can watch movies in god damn HD. No, 500 lines of Tyler Durden's face isn't enough. I want 1080. Ditto for the Enterprise-E, Kate Winslet's breasts, or whatever else I'm watching.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Are we talking 1280x720 HD or 1920x1080 here? A true 1080p source on a native 1080p monitor is going to look far better than a DVD on a native 480p EDTV or even upscaled to 720p or 1080i/p. Especially on a display large enough to resolve that much detail. A side by side comparison would be night and day.

Probably a little of both....

I have heard that many of the AVC HP and VC1 stuff will be encoded @ 1080p/24 but you may see some 1280x720 stuff as well...

So will HD-DVD really max out at 30GB? What about BRD, how high will the capacity be?

Is BRD a joint venture, or is it 100% Sony? I simply worry that if Sony has complete control then prices will never be truly low as Sony will want to dip its beak into the royalties.

Look at Sony's Memory Sticks, over 10 years old and they are STILL twice as expensive as the compeition.

It is a joint venture between many players but the main technology developers are Matsushita, Sony and Pioneer Electronics...though nobody is pushing BRD quite as hard as Sony.....

HD-DVD-ROM maxes out @ 15GB a layer, so if you used something similar to a DVD-18 (dual-layer, dual sided) you could get 60GB in theory, though you would have to flip the disk...

BRD are single sided only, but you can have up to 27GB per layer and up to 8 layers so thats 216GBs and you never have to flip....AFAIK, current ROM configurations are 25GB (SS/SL) and 50GB (SS/DL) while REs can be either 23, 25 and 27GB (SS/SL) or 50 and 54GB(SS/DL)......

I dunno im kinda leaning towards whichever format is backwards compatible. If HD DVD can meet the specs for HD content, is cheaper, and backwards compatible...wheres the discussion here. The guy already said with double sided HD DVD they could get upwards of 60GB out of HD DVD double sided and dual layer. Im thinking thats gonna be good for a while here for most things, why pay more to manufacture, buy, and forego backwards compatibility? If Blu Ray has a backwards compatible player then more power to it.

Yeah, both HD-DVD and Blu-ray are backwards compatible in that all players from both formats will play CDs and DVDs..

Both groups are also working on dual-format disks...Toshiba/Memory-tech is working on a dual-format ROM disk with a 15GB HD-DVD on one layer and a 4.7GB DVD on the other:

http://www.memory-tech.co.jp/english/company/company8.html


Wheras JVC is developing a triple-layer 33.5GB hybrid BRD/DVD disk with a 25GB BRD layer and then 2 DVD layers (8.5GB)

http://www.jvc-victor.co.jp/english/press/2004/bd-dvd.html

Movies on either of these hybrid formats would indeed work on standard DVD players....

IMO, with the large CE support of Blu-ray (HP and Dell alone could make a serious impact for the format) I think BRD will win out in the end...

Not one HD-DVD studio has gone on record as saying they will have EXCLUSIVE HD-DVD support and even Warner, who everybody assumes will be HD-DVD only, have not comitted to exclusivity either...BRD is not much better, but at least they have Disney, MGM and of course CTS...all exclusive....

Then of course, there is PlayStation 3, which, as of now, HD-DVD has no answer to....

 

[chinch]

the toshiba (i think it was him) guy nailed it in that even for business solutions, there are better harddrive archival alternates than BRD. pointless really.

thing you guys forget is hollywood doesn't need or WANT even 50GB per disc either.

first off all that would increase consumer expectations. they'd come to expect the disc to be filled. They'd soon expect 10 seasons of friends on one BRD since there is space... or 10 hours of extras per movie. Secondly it hurts profitability because they can charge more for "2-3 disc collections" whereas with BRD that would be consumer fraud... there would be no need for extra discs. Mark it down... you will never see stand-alone BRD players supporting more than 2 layers.

Adding $1 manufacturing cost for a 3-dvd set gains $9.99 or more at retail. this will hurt blu-ray (and hd-dvd to an extent if people tout the storage capacity as an asset) assuming equal studio support for both formats.

 

[chinch]

just a reminder of what MP3 did to the SACD/DVD-Audio music industry.... it made buying "better than cd quality" music POINTLESS to 99.9% of Americans.

soon you will have ipod movie viewers... the PSP is already a proprietary version. You can already rip your DVD concerts/comedies to MP3 w/o hassle.... soon you will do that with movies with the support of hollywood! 'Cause they'll be selling them on iTunes/MSN.

once DVD movies are as portable & easily as rippable as CD audio, the paradigm will shift to make BRD/HD-DVD even a further laserdisc-like niche with the masses gobbling up 480i DVDs for years and years :lol:

there is no definitive data showing a market for purchasable HD content... people just might prefer it to be delivered by cable/dish/on-demand/etc.

 

[mrklaw]

there is no definitive data showing a market for purchasable HD content... people just might prefer it to be delivered by cable/dish/on-demand/etc.

Its speculation, but I'm guessing that might be linked to there not being any HD stuff out there to buy.....

But I agree with the gist of this and your previous post. People are automatically equating CD and DVD success with the quality of the output. They seem to bypass an important part, which is the *convenience*. No rewinding, jump to chapters/tracks, smaller so takes up less space blah blah.

Better picture/sound quality - sure. But is there a quality of experience that is 'good enough', and there will not be such consumer pull for higher/better? How have the higher quality audio formats done in the market compared to CD?

 

[Raven.]

Blu-ray is the successor of the vcr, with a name that cool it CAN'T lose!!! I've said it year after year... it's destiny