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[Negotiator101]

It's as dead cert as you get in the industry period. Rockstar are in my eyes levels above everyone else creatively and commercially.

 

[nightmare-slain]

GTAV made all the money spent on development and marketing back 3 times over in these 24 hours. 20 million copies for GTAVI would just cover development costs.

They would quite literally need the entirety of the current ps5 userbase to get as big of a return as GTAV did then.

There are going to be many more console users in the next year or two. It's still possible that this game is 1 1/2 or even 2 years away. A lot of PC gamers will probably pick up a console just to play it. That's what I did. The only reason I'm holding onto my PS5 is to be able to play VI whenever it comes out.

PS5 is already at 62 million. PS3 didn't hit 80m until just before PS4 came out.

It's as dead cert as you get in the industry period. Rockstar are in my eyes levels above everyone else creatively and commercially.

commercially yes but creatively no lol.

 

[coachmcguirk91]

My guess is it’ll sell less that GTA5 but make more money by being heavily designed around GTAO/subscriptions/MTX from the ground up

Yeah, people don't realize how much of an afterthought GTA online was when it first launched in 2013. It was incredibly barebones with very limited content. Today, It is still one of the highest grossing GAAS games and it is built on PS3 tech, which is fucking wild. Imagine what Rockstar will do knowing GTA 6 will be an evolving game for the next 10-15 years?

And it is impossible for GTA 6 to fail. Rockstar could keep the same archaic gameplay design of GTA 5 and it will still be the biggest game on the market. That's because no other studio has the resources to develop a living breathing open world like Rockstar has. GTA 6 easily has at least 1000 full time developers working on the game for the past 6 years. It is rumored to be in pre-production since 2015. If Rockstar modernizes their gameplay, I truly believe it will be way bigger than GTA 5

 

[IAmRei]

It will still sold much than other failed works. The usual GTA sales is helping the bare minimum fail. I think. But all I know is, GTA is like immortal vs human, compared to other games. It wont fail easily, let alone die easily.

 

[Negotiator101]

commercially yes but creatively no lol.

Yes.

 

[Astray]

There's no such thing as too big to fail imo.

But it's very clear to me that a lot is riding on GTA6's success. The series is a juggernaut, but this is also the first installment without the Hausers at the helm.

 

[nightmare-slain]

There's no such thing as too big to fail imo.

But it's very clear to me that a lot is riding on GTA6's success. The series is a juggernaut, but this is also the first installment without the Hausers at the helm.

don't forget Leslie Benzies.

they do need to prove they can still make a GTA game but i'm not too worried. Rockstar can hire the best producers/writers out there. It could go either way. Could be not as good...could be much better. We'll see.

 

[coachmcguirk91]

My guess is it’ll sell less that GTA5 but make more money by being heavily designed around GTAO/subscriptions/MTX from the ground up

Yeah, people don't realize how much of an afterthought GTA online was when it first launched in 2013. It was incredibly barebones with very limited content. Today, It is still one of the highest grossing GAAS games and it is built on PS3 tech, which is fucking wild. Imagine what Rockstar will do knowing GTA 6 will be an evolving game for the next 10-15 years

And it is impossible for GTA 6 to fail. Rockstar could keep the same archaic gameplay design of GTA 5 and it will still be the biggest game on the market. That's because no other studio has the resources to develop a living breathing open world like Rockstar has. GTA 6 easily has at least 1000 full time developers working on the game for the past 6 years, which is unheard of. It has been rumored to be in pre-production since 2015. If Rockstar modernizes their gameplay, I truly believe it will be way bigger than GTA 5 or possibly even Fortnite

 

[nightmare-slain]

Yeah, people don't realize how much of an afterthought GTA online was when it first launched in 2013. It was incredibly barebones with very limited content. Today, It is still one of the highest grossing GAAS games and it is built on PS3 tech, which is fucking wild. Imagine what Rockstar will do knowing GTA 6 will be an evolving game for the next 10-15 years

And it is impossible for GTA 6 to fail. Rockstar could keep the same archaic gameplay design of GTA 5 and it will still be the biggest game on the market. That's because no other studio has the resources to develop a living breathing open world like Rockstar has. GTA 6 easily has at least 1000 full time developers working on the game for the past 6 years, which is unheard of. It has been rumored to be in pre-production since 2015. If Rockstar modernizes their gameplay, I truly believe it will be way bigger than GTA 5 or possibly even Fortnite

I remember the T2 ceo was talking about finding a way to monetise GTA between releases. well they were successful with GTA Online. i thought it was just a standard new multiplayer mode and would never have guessed it'd still be being played 11+ years later lol. multiplayer isn't really my thing but yeah now Rockstar know how successful it is I am interested to see what they do for "Online 2.0". It's going to be wild and I'll give it a try.

 

[Guilty_AI]

There are going to be many more console users in the next year or two. It's still possible that this game is 1 1/2 or even 2 years away. A lot of PC gamers will probably pick up a console just to play it. That's what I did. The only reason I'm holding onto my PS5 is to be able to play VI whenever it comes out.

Oh i don't doubt this will still sell as much as it needs to regardless of smaller console userbase... however the main issue here is that this game can't be just a success in the traditional sense, not with its astronomical budget and development time. Rockstar wants this to be a venue to GTAVI online and i actually have some doubts whether that'll turn out as well as GTAV online did.

 

[nightmare-slain]

Oh i don't doubt this will still sell as much as it needs to regardless of smaller console userbase... however the main issue here is that this game can't be just a success in the traditional sense, not with its astronomical budget and development time. Rockstar wants this to be a venue to GTAVI online and i actually have some doubts whether that'll turn out as well as GTAV online did.

they'll cover their costs real quick. they could have a budget of $1 billion and have pure profit after a few days. but yeah i suppose it's not so simple to compare both games. i can't see the game being a failure ... even if it makes billions for them. overall in the long run it might be less successful than V but if any game can break new records it'll be this.

 

[Negotiator101]

There's no such thing as too big to fail imo.

But it's very clear to me that a lot is riding on GTA6's success. The series is a juggernaut, but this is also the first installment without the Hausers at the helm.

Sam is obviously still there and even though Dan is gone Rupert Humphries is leading the writing now and Unsworth only left last year so his work was mostly done. So you've got 2 of the main writers of RDR2 who have worked on this, I say it's gonna be just fine.

 

[danklord]

Not everyone. I am not a fan of GTA since it went 3D so will not be getting it.

ok

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

GTAV has been on the market for a decade, three console generations. It’ll be a while before we get our answer. I voted slightly above because I expect GTAVI on a Nintendo handheld at some point, which will help it tremendously.

Oh yeah, it's 100% getting a Switch 2 version. GTA5 got a mobile port; there's zero reason T2 will ignore Switch 2 when GTA6 will likely also get a mobile version.

I think the ideal release schedule would look like this:

Late 2025: PS5, Xbox Series

Late Spring/Early Summer 2026: Switch 2

Winter 2026/Early 2027: PC (+ new GTA Online update for all platforms)

Later 2027/2028 etc: mobile

The only way we might see a video game industry crash is if the global economy deteriorates to the point where the average person can’t even afford basic necessities like food. One reason for the crash in the 1980s was that video games were relatively new and perceived as a passing fad by investors because of the waning interest among the general population, this made them invest their money elsewhere. Today, the industry is as integral to people’s lives as music and movies. As long as people have disposable income, a crash like the one in the 1980s is unlikely to happen again.

Good points. Though ironically, quite a few economies seem to be heading into a recession, so you never know.

Just depends on how bad it gets. I'd rather it not happen (so would everyone, I take it).

No

But are you trying to crash the servers with this wall of text?

I could type FAR MORE if I wanted to crash the servers

We can just do launch aligned sales. That's if we get any data that is.

Should definitely be getting sales data for it; Piscatella, Dring etc. aren't gonna pass up the engagement that'd bring. Would also be very weird to just not do it for GTA6 when they've provided data for much smaller games.

But we probably won't get a lot of hard numbers unless they're from leaks, sadly. Or milestone posts from T2, of course.

I think it will match GTA5 sales and revenue, sooner and end up doing slightly more revenue-wise.

I mean, so far GTA5 is 200 million+ copies sold and $8.6 billion USD in revenue, till now, which is not over yet. GTA6 will sell more than 250 million copies and cross $11 billion USD in total lifetime revenue, in the same time 5 released till now (11 years).

That's an interesting and optimistic prognosis, probably also a realistic one.

But I did have someone mention to me in conversation on this topic, that GTA6 won't have the benefit of getting a new build for 10th-gen platforms because those should be effortlessly BC with the current systems.

PS4 & XBO were architecture breaks from PS3 & 360, so getting GTA5 on those systems necessitated new native builds. GTA6 won't have that luxury with PS6 and whatever the next Xbox system(s) end up being...then again, it's T2. We can't underestimate their cunningness xD.

 

[Hrk69]

I could type FAR MORE if I wanted to crash the servers

 

[{insert code here}]

Haha okay you put a lot of time and thought into this and I like GTA so I will read this in between workouts at the gym.

 

[XXL]

The only way it'll underperform is if they do something stupid.

As long as it's just next gen GTA5 it'll probably end up doing better than the previous game in the end, all things the same.

GTA V was originally a a late PS3/360 game so this game should be quite the upgrade in many ways.

 

[Bloobs]

It's a game everyone will buy. They should price it at $100.

 

[Flabagast]

I think it will perform less than GTA5 overall, and that Rockstar expects it.

Still it will be absolutely massive

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

It seems insane to think anything repeating 200M sales but,
GTA6 (2025)
GTA6-Online (2026)
GTA6-PC (2026)
GTA6-Switch2 (2028)
GTA6-NextGen (2029)

Makes it somewhat believable. It may perform better as literally all the games are getting crashed and burned, while this will be the savior, too big too fail.

But also development time of other publishers's games seems will fall right on GTA6 launch Year (Q4-2025). They can't avoid it, they can't delay it also. Lose lose situation for everyone just because Sony and Microsoft software ramp up will result in an epic 2026.

Ok now that I think about it none of the MS/Sony games are gonna fall on Q4-25. It will be all GTA's month.

In terms of the platforms and order, only thing I'd change are deployment of GTA Online and the Switch 2 version, and cut out the next gen version (assuming that's a native build), replacing it with a mobile version.

I think T2 would want to get as many console people to double-dip on PC as possible, and that'd also include Nintendo people. So getting a Switch 2 version out ahead of the PC one would probably be to their benefit. However, the new GTA Online probably won't roll out until the PC version releases. Then after that, they could target a mobile version like they did with GTA5.

Since the next-gen consoles will be fully BC with the current ones, can T2 really justify making native builds and expecting people to buy them yet again? Dunno...it might get tricky. So there's a chance they could just do next-gen updates but also have a new SKU for yet new customers of the game on those platforms.

Overperforming woes won't affect the industry and won't result in people making GTA clones again. I just can't believe they could be this stupid again and again, Rockstar overperforming might even convince them that they can't go toe to toe with this juggernaut and refuse investers demand within reason.

Well we didn't investors do that with GAAS after PUBG and Fortnite blew up. Something tells me they might consider investment in "novel" knock-offs to be worth it in the modern era thanks to online gaming, which didn't really exist to this scale back in the early '00s for console gaming.

Guess we'll see...

That was a compelling read. And well reasoned, too.

The concept of GTA as a platform is very true, and anything that comes from that could happen.

I seriously doubt it will underperform. But I think it’d be wiser for them to not exclude PC as a launch platform if they want to achieve the best launch sales. Not as many people as before will be ready to buy a console at launch just to play GTA, and most high-end PC users definitely won’t. On the other hand, launching on PC too may be a tremendous hit to console sales, and that would force a lot of people to reconsider things about this market that have been taken for granted for a long time.

It will probably be a momentous game in many ways. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the idea that some of its effects may actually be detrimental to the current model.

The way it seems, is that T2 don't care so much about launch sales being their absolute best, versus looking at lifetime sales and leverage as many platforms outside of PS & Xbox as "reinvigoration bumps" to the IP's mindshare and sales roadmap potential. So realistically, they have PC, they have Switch 2, and they have mobile. Switch 2 and mobile are distinct enough markets where I don't think skipping those Day 1 has any negative impact on total potential sales.

PC is maybe the one other market where skipping Day 1 could cause a softening of launch sales, because there has been a lot of demographic crossover between PC, PS and Xbox over the past decade. But GTA is such a massive IP that it also appeals to the portion of PC gamers who only play very PC-centric games and likely either don't play a lot of the console games that end up on PC, or never even played console before.

GTA still appeals to that crowd too and it's a big one. That might explain why T2 are comfortable prioritizing a PC release after PS & Xbox.

I’m thinking the growth of subscriptions services might be a bigger hurdle for matching the sales of the last game. I’d imagine GTA6 will appear more often and faster on a subscription service compared to GTA5.

It’ll probably still sell in +100M range though.

Dunno about subscription services having that type of effect. Growth of Game Pass and even PS+ in terms of new users has basically slowed down a lot if not stalled completely. Also a lot of the hardcore/core gamers that will be picking up GTA6 have already played the must-play games in those services, likely when they came out new before going into the service.

Meanwhile, casuals buying the game literally will only care about playing GTA6; just because there are hundreds of games in PS+ or Game Pass will mean nothing to them, they will see more value at that moment in GTA6. If anything, "subscriptions" in the form of giant GAAS platforms would probably be more of an impediment in GTA6 adoption rates, at least in theory.

And that's only really until the new GTA Online is launched. Even without it, realistically I think GTA6 will hold its own and see strong sales in a more competitive environment.

 

[SSfox]

No this will be at least a "good game" here not a concord

 

[Evil Calvin]

GTA 5 has sold 200 million on consoles in 11 years. There aren't even that many PS5's or XSX, XS consoles combined

 

[VolticArchangel]

That's an interesting and optimistic prognosis, probably also a realistic one.

But I did have someone mention to me in conversation on this topic, that GTA6 won't have the benefit of getting a new build for 10th-gen platforms because those should be effortlessly BC with the current systems.

PS4 & XBO were architecture breaks from PS3 & 360, so getting GTA5 on those systems necessitated new native builds. GTA6 won't have that luxury with PS6 and whatever the next Xbox system(s) end up being...then again, it's T2. We can't underestimate their cunningness xD.

Just to remind you again, boot up your PS5 or Series X, and go on to the store page of RDR2. It's still listed as a PS4/Xbone app, that's running at the same (Pro/One X) settings on PS5/Series X, when everyone else were giving away updates/patches of their previous gen games when these two new consoles launched in 2020, for free.

These fuckers want us to pay again, and again and again, in perpetuity and pay again for those shark tank microtransactions cards too. Lmao.

 

[Danjin44]

So this is something I just had spring up in my head;

 

[Holammer]

OP put so much work into this I'll read it in depth tomorrow.
Tied/Similar amount seems like the safe bet, but we don't know if the setting and story will jive with audiences (like a preachy "do better" scene). Maybe increased multiplayer focus will put off the SP crowd, I'm personally annoyed with GTAV going 100% on MP and played it far less than previous GTA games.
I seriously expected expansion(s) with Las Venturas or San Fierro and I'm probably not the only one.

 

[Arsic]

 

[Moses85]

 

[John Bilbo]

GTA 6 will be designed with online play in mind to ensure the longevity of the product. GTA 7 will be released 20 years after GTA 6 when most of us will be dead.

 

[Robb]

Dunno about subscription services having that type of effect.

Yeah I’m just spitballing here, but just to clarify I’m not only thinking about consoles. I’m thinking stuff like Netflix Games and other competitors will have grown and appeared within the next 10 years as well and that some version of the game might appear there.

I think a lot of casuals would be content by just playing the game on a service like that from time to time instead of purchasing a full price copy.

 

[Fahdis]

Didn't read. Leaving with Tits.

 

[Saturn Dragon]

Read it all. Extremely interesting wall of text.

But I think it's gonna overperform. This gen has been a bit... "meh" for the most part, it's like there hasn't been any strong next (well, now, CURRENT) gen game, and Ps4 is still receiving games and it refuses to die.
This is the game that will kill the ps4. This is what changes it all.

And this comes from a guy that only tried a half an hour of GTA III back in 2002, only played a couple hours of Vice City because of it's STUNNING OST, and don't know exactly how San Andreas is.. and that's it.

I remember how big was GTA V when it released, but never played.

This one? I'm planning on buying PS5 soon because of Astrobot / Stellar Blade / Phantom Blade / Wukong and so on, but if there's one game that really makes me curious about it is GTA VI... I really wanna see it.
it's gonna be HUUUGE.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

It really all comes down to 2 things, whether the game is another gta or if they've modernized it for modern audiences. I think that's the one thing most people are a little concerned about considering they lost many of their key talented leads and well... its 2024 or when it releases 2025-26. The modern audience crap invades so much of gaming and entertainment so most people are a little wary.

The other thing is the state of the global economy when it releases. Are people just going to keep getting poorer because of lowsy leaders or will we bounce back a little and people might have a bit more spending cash. Today vs 2013 isn't really all that comparable.

Rockstars best path, which is usually what they do anyway so I'm not too concerned, is to come out well in advance and drop a release date, and show us well in advance what the game is like and that it's the same old irreverant gta that we all love.

If they do those two things this will blast past gta5 sales purely because we have more gamers today than 2013 both younger and older.

Well, the trailer didn't seem to have anything suggesting the game's been compromised with certain modern-day identity politics or related things thereof, which should be a good sign.

People should know games like GTA are a satire on reality and don't endorse criminal or toxic activities & behaviors, but it's also not R*'s job to make sure everyone has that common sense.

A gaming crash will only happen when the playerbase for GTA Online, CSGO, League of Legends, DOTA 2, COD, FIFA, Madden, Fortnite, Minecraft, Apex Legends, Valorant, and Genshin Impact reach zero.

Either that, or enough of those games see a big drop in player bases to where those mainstay GAAS as a whole can't sustain the market financially.

It'd take some crazy circumstances for that to happen simultaneously to multiple mainstay GAAS platforms, though.

Yes.

Nah that user's kinda right. Can't measure creativity objectively. If someone's not into crime thrillers, GTA will mean a lot less to them regardless whatever else the game does.

But the number of people (at least in America) not into crime thrillers or such is probably in the minority.

 

[PatientGamer]

GTA 6 will be the most successful entertainment product of all time. There are at least 11 cohorts worth of new gamers who have been anticipating this game. It will crush GTA V numbers.

It will without a doubt be released across 2-3 generations like its predecessor.

Gen 9 and Gen 10 for sure, wouldn't put it past them to put it on Gen 8 consoles too.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Didn't read it all but I think it will overperform, Sony/MS will need to have lots of stock and GTA6 could further cement the growing trend of just a few games taking up all the players and time and makes releases other games more high risk.

AI will be able to lower cost and knock out games to where if they fail to catch peoples attention it won't be a big loss.

This is one of my biggest concerns and in this case, GTA6'd be joining (or, well, reinforcing GTA's position as top dog) in that small club along with the Fortnites and such.

It could create a situation where other devs become dependents to the big platform service titles, and that just feeds more market power into a very small pool of IP and those IP owners. So then if any one of those GAAS platforms craters, they're taking a LOT of others down with them.

A bit scary to think about IMO.

Nope. And there's absolutely no way GTA VI isn't going to sell extremely well. V is still constantly on the charts all these years later and VI's trailer has broken records, as will the game when it launches.

This will be a global phenomenon again and I do hope it will inspire devs to think outside the box, even if they can't hope to reach Rockstars insane talent. Move away from Ubislop design for open world games.

Well, even if they had R*'s level of talent (or better), they'd have little chance at GTA's level of market share...because they aren't GTA. And that might actually convince some to not bother as much, because they'll wonder what's the point if they don't feel there's a path to market share for them?

Just a lot of interesting nuanced dynamics involved, and wondering how things shape around them.

No. Nice read though.

However, I think you didn't take into account exactly why the market crashed to begin with. If you did you would see the current market is uncrashable.

A couple people did bring that up ITT; however I still don't think that means there can't be a market "crash". Crashes can range in severity. A crash that happened today would probably not be as severe as the one in the early '80s, but certain sectors of the market could end up more affected than others.

That's the kind of worst-case scenario I can picture if GTA6 underperforms or overperforms by too great of margins (going by whatever T2's internal guidance models are showing, and what head people there want).

GTA 5 has sold 200 million on consoles in 11 years. There aren't even that many PS5's or XSX, XS consoles combined

TBF, GTA5 also got ports to PC and mobile during that time, and GTA6 will get the same treatment (plus likely a Switch 2 port).

Yeah I’m just spitballing here, but just to clarify I’m not only thinking about consoles. I’m thinking stuff like Netflix Games and other competitors will have grown and appeared within the next 10 years as well and that some version of the game might appear there.

I think a lot of casuals would be content by just playing the game on a service like that from time to time instead of purchasing a full price copy.

Interesting point, and now I see what you saying earlier. IMO, Netflix, Amazon etc. still have a long ways to go before they are seen as viable gaming platforms, but if there's one game that could help them get there, it's probably GTA6.

Though, by "casuals" here, in this case they would probably be more of the non-gaming mainstream variety. I think casual console gamers and casual PC gamers will still prefer to buy the game (probably when it's on sale) vs. playing it through a subscription. But again back to the Netflix & Amazon side of things...yes I can agree casuals who primarily spend time on those services, will prefer to play it in the service, likely because they don't have a console or PC as an alternative way to play the game.

Mobile would still be an option for them, but that service would be available to them on their mobile device too, and these people are especially turned off by needless friction to content access. Between the choice of buying the game on a mobile store, or just streaming it through their Netflix sub while on their phone, they're likely going to choose the latter.

Read it all. Extremely interesting wall of text.

But I think it's gonna overperform. This gen has been a bit... "meh" for the most part, it's like there hasn't been any strong next (well, now, CURRENT) gen game, and Ps4 is still receiving games and it refuses to die.
This is the game that will kill the ps4. This is what changes it all.

And this comes from a guy that only tried a half an hour of GTA III back in 2002, only played a couple hours of Vice City because of it's STUNNING OST, and don't know exactly how San Andreas is.. and that's it.

I remember how big was GTA V when it released, but never played.

This one? I'm planning on buying PS5 soon because of Astrobot / Stellar Blade / Phantom Blade / Wukong and so on, but if there's one game that really makes me curious about it is GTA VI... I really wanna see it.
it's gonna be HUUUGE.

There are probably a good number of folks like yourself waiting for GTA6 to get closer before picking up a new console (usually a PS5), as by then the library will have a robust amount of offerings. All of those other games you mentioned would be worth the pick-ups, and probably also Demon's Souls Remake going by what you mentioned.

Though, I'm a bit sour on SIE's strategy when it comes to how they're handling exclusivity this gen, what with their multiplatform strategy being the way it is (not that it exists at all; just want to clear any thought on that note). However that's getting into a slightly different conversation. Other than that, yeah, GTA6 will probably finally get all the non-sports games to leave PS4 behind, at the very least. Only certain sports franchises and some GAAS titles will likely keep getting regular updates.

And, I can even see those GAAS scaling back on updates, or having PS4 version updates for certain things take longer.