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[sonycowboy]

I'm sure it will do OK, but compared to what the series has seen so far, it's going to get slaughtered. There's just absolutely no room on any system for it.

Nov 2 - Killzone
Nov 9 - Halo 2
Nov 15 - Half Life 2
Nov 15 - Metroid Prime: Echoes
Nov 16 - Call of Duty (all consoles)
Nov 17 - Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater

Nov 17 - GoldenEye

Nov 21 - Nintendo DS w/Games

 

[SyNapSe]

It's going to sell "ok" for a Goldeneye remake (wink,wink) and for being an EA product. It actually looks pretty neat, but I know that I'm not going to have any time for it.

 

[cybamerc]

It's an EA game. It has GoldenEye on the cover. I'm sure it will do well.

 

[DrLazy]

I'm sure it will do OK, but compared to what the series has seen so far, it's going to get slaughtered. There's just absolutely no room on any system for it.

Nov 2 - Killzone
Nov 9 - Halo 2
Nov 15 - Half Life 2
Nov 15 - Metroid Prime: Echoes
Nov 16 - Call of Duty (all consoles)
Nov 17 - Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater

Nov 17 - GoldenEye

Nov 21 - Nintendo DS w/Games

GoldenEye will do fine. You should really ask how bad will Killzone and Call of Duty bomb.

 

[Razoric]

GoldenEye will do fine. You should really ask how bad will Killzone and Call of Duty bomb.

Or Metroid Prime 2 and Nintendo DS.

 

[Deg]

base don 007 EON i'd say GE wont do that well but maybe better. EA simply havent been able to live up to GE so i guess they decided to drag the name through the mud...

Or Metroid Prime 2 and Nintendo DS.

You forgot to add Sony are quitting the cosnole business.

 

[Drinky Crow]

I'd say Metroid Prime 2 bombs harder. Hopefully, the DS will utterly bomb as well, forcing Nintendo to go make a DS SP which axes one screen and adds GC-level performance.

 

[NLB2]

Sorta like how GBA SP graphics are way better than GBA graphics, Drinky Crow?

 

[jarrod]

It's EA and Goldeneye... it'll do fine. If I had to predict the upcoming sales battle between these games...

01 Halo 2 (Xbox)
02 Goldeneye: Rogue Agent (PS2/GC/Xbox)
03 Half Life 2 (PC)
04 Killzone (PS2)
05 Metroid Prime 2: Echoes (GC)
06 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (PS2)
07 Call of Duty: Finest Hour (PS2/GC/Xbox)

...isn't the N64 Goldeneye still the best selling console fps of all time?

 

[Guns N' Poops]

If it gains 80+ scores it will sell 1,5-2, that's for sure. It may even sell the most on the Cube, due to uninformed N64 lovers.
Call of Duty is the FPS bomb of the season. It may be an unexpected great port, but nobody gives a shit.
And Jarrod, I am pretty sure that Snake Eater will still top Metroid Prime 2.

 

[jarrod]

I'd say Metroid Prime 2 bombs harder. Hopefully, the DS will utterly bomb as well, forcing Nintendo to go make a DS SP which axes one screen and adds GC-level performance.

Wait until 2007/8 for the next Game Boy. It'll only be $99 too.

 

[Drinky Crow]

NLB, a man can dream, can't he?

 

[Argyle]

I'm with DrLazy on this one - Killzone is the one that is likely to bomb. (I played the demo and the low 20fps framerate and plodding gameplay turned me off.) I've heard good and bad about CoD so I don't really know what to think, to be honest.

The only other game aside from the two I mentioned above that competes directly with GE is Halo 2, all the others are in other genres, other platforms, or are themselves other platforms, so I'm not sure where you're coming from

 

[Deg]

Call of Duty is the FPS bomb of the season. It may be an unexpected great port, but nobody gives a shit.

I doubt it. COD has earned a name.

 

[Ristamar]

It's an EA game. It has GoldenEye on the cover. I'm sure it will do well.

IAWTP. It might not be a huge megahit, but I'll be surprised if it totally bombs.

 

[Catchpenny]

Goldeneye won't pull in huge numbers, but I'll bet it beats out Killzone and Call of Duty. Has a chance to outdo Prime 2, as well.

The real EA bomb of the season will be NFS Underground 2.

 

[Deg]

Goldeneye won't pull in huge numbers, but I'll bet it beats out Killzone and Call of Duty. Has a chance to outdo Prime 2, as well.

The real EA bomb of the season will be NFS Underground 2.

I give up.

 

[krypt0nian]

I'd say Metroid Prime 2 bombs harder. Hopefully, the DS will utterly bomb as well, forcing Nintendo to go make a DS SP which axes one screen and adds GC-level performance.

Well you should wish big I guess.

 

[AirBrian]

You'd be foolish to think Goldeneye will bomb. (And NFS:U2 for that matter.)

 

[Guns N' Poops]

I doubt it. COD has earned a name.

In the PC world. Which is not the core of the supposed console version buyers. MoH is huge on consoles, but I haven't seen any real hype for CoD yet.

The real EA bomb of the season will be NFS Underground 2.

The sad fact is, it wont. It probably wont make the sales of NFSU, though. Burnout 3 was the hope to get away sales from NFSU2 period, but it didn`t sell that hot. (It does better in Europe, though)

 

[sonycowboy]

It's EA and Goldeneye... it'll do fine. If I had to predict the upcoming sales battle between these games...

01 Halo 2 (Xbox)
02 Goldeneye: Rogue Agent (PS2/GC/Xbox)
03 Half Life 2 (PC)
04 Killzone (PS2)
05 Metroid Prime 2: Echoes (GC)
06 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (PS2)
07 Call of Duty: Finest Hour (PS2/GC/Xbox)

...isn't the N64 Goldeneye still the best selling console fps of all time?

You'd put MGS3 as the 6th place seller on that list??? Are you crazy???

 

[jarrod]

You'd put MGS3 as the 6th place seller on that list??? Are you crazy???

Well, I'd say MGS3 and Prime 2 are pretty interchangable... neither will be breaking a million units this year I suspect. There's just not enough attention going for either, MGS2 and Prime were industry events, these are just relatively safe sequels. Prime 2 has the advantage of less direct competition though, it's GC's "big" game which could help.

And I think KillZone will sell better than most expect. Quality or not, the casual PS2 audinece will be looking for an alternative to Halo 2, and I really think KZ comes closest. If SOCOM can move millions...

 

[SyNapSe]

Well, I'd say MGS3 and Prime 2 are pretty interchangable... neither will be breaking a million units this year I suspect.

Prime 2, I'll give you.. the took a while to break 1 million units. MGS3 though will easily break 1 million this Xmas. It has quite a fan following. It's not really that hard to break 1 million units on the PS2 anyway at this point.

 

[Subitai]

You'd put MGS3 as the 6th place seller on that list??? Are you crazy???

Looking at the way FPS still sell tons every month and the way MGS2 & Substance can't sell 400 combined in Sept. at $19, I'd say MGS3 probably isn't going sell more than most of the big FPS coming out let alone blow them away. Even the unpopular XIII pulled in 7k for PS2 last month.

 

[Deku Tree]

Goldeneye might put up Burnout 3 type numbers.

 

[jarrod]

Prime 2, I'll give you.. the took a while to break 1 million units. MGS3 though will easily break 1 million this Xmas. It has quite a fan following. It's not really that hard to break 1 million units on the PS2 anyway at this point.

MGS1 & MGS2 were selling to far more than any specific fan following though. I just don't see MGS3 eating up casual sales like the first two, it's just not important enough in this stacked holiday season. I'm guessing around 800-900k in the US before year end (same for Prime 2 actually). Killzone will break a million.

 

[jarrod]

Goldeneye might put up Burnout 3 type numbers.

250k? Maybe on GameCube alone, all combined it'll sell over 2 million I bet.

 

[sonycowboy]

Well, I'd say MGS3 and Prime 2 are pretty interchangable... neither will be breaking a million units this year I suspect. There's just not enough attention going for either, MGS2 and Prime were industry events, these are just relatively safe sequels. Prime 2 has the advantage of less direct competition though, it's GC's "big" game which could help.

And I think KillZone will sell better than most expect. Quality or not, the casual PS2 audinece will be looking for an alternative to Halo 2, and I really think KZ comes closest. If SOCOM can move millions...

Now, you've just gone too far. Dissing SOCOM as well as MGS3?

IMO, MGS3 will sell over a million by the end of the year easily.

 

[Guns N' Poops]

Looking at the way FPS still sell tons every month and the way MGS2 & Substance can't sell 400 combined in Sept. at $19, I'd say MGS3 probably isn't going sell more than most of the big FPS coming out let alone blow them away. Even the unpopular XIII pulled in 7k for PS2 last month.

Wow, that is great logic. So if Gran Turismo 3 wont sell more than 5.000 units the month before GT4, GT4 will bomb big time compared to it? You know, I'd say everybody who wanted MGS2 until now already has it and worldwide this are more people, than at the first part. There are just major hits, which have legs for years and gain great numbers that way, or hits, which sell a ton in few months and then it's over. If many random multiplatform games could do above a million on PS2, MGS3 can't stay behind.

 

[jarrod]

Now, you've just gone too far. Dissing SOCOM as well as MGS3?

I'm not dissing MGS3. SOCOM from what I understand isn't exactly the best fps, but good advertising and a casual base pushed it way ahead. Regardless of how good a game Killzone is, I'm expecting similar results.

IMO, MGS3 will sell over 1.5 million by the end of the year easily.

Yeah, I might be a little hard on MGS3, it could break a million. But 1.5M is best case scenario at this point I'd say, almost unrealistic. The game just isn't relevant the way it's predecessors were... I'd be amazed if it broke 600k it's first month (MGS2 didn't iirc).

 

[jarrod]

Wow, that is great logic. So if Gran Turismo 3 wont sell more than 5.000 units the month before GT4, GT4 will bomb big time compared to it? You know, I'd say everybody who wanted MGS2 until now already has it and worldwide this are more people, than at the first part. There are just major hits, which have legs for years and gain great numbers that way, or hits, which sell a ton in few months and then it's over. If many random multiplatform games could do above a million on PS2, MGS3 can't stay behind.

No one's saying MGS3 won't break a million, they're just saying it won't do that in the US this year. Also, I believe MGS1 has outsold MGS2 worldwide (something like 6.6M to 5.5M).

 

[Guns N' Poops]

No one's saying MGS3 won't break a million, they're just saying it won't do that in the US this year. Also, I believe MGS1 has outsold MGS2 worldwide (something like 6.6M to 5.5M).

No, I was in the german Frankfurt in Konami Europe's headquarter last year and I was told that MGS2 did about 0,8-0,9 millions more worldwide than MGS1 (and Substance is 500.000-600.000 of it). You may not know, but it was HUGE here in Europe - even more than in USA and Japan.
By the way, I am not in the industry - I was there because of the invitation of a friend.

 

[sonycowboy]

SOCOM from what I understand isn't exactly the best fps, but good advertising and a casual base pushed it way ahead. Regardless of how good a game Killzone is, I'm expecting similar results.

You understand it wrong. Hardcore gamers brought it to the casuals. It wasn't an instant hit. It's not an FPS either. Damn, I think you need to look into this game. The ONLY problem (granted, it's huge) is that the damn cheaters are everywhere.

Yeah, I might be a little hard on MGS3, it could break a million. But 1.5M is best case scenario at this point I'd say, almost unrealistic. The game just isn't relevant the way it's predecessors were... I'd be amazed if it broke 600k it's first month (MGS2 didn't iirc).

Not relevant? I'm sorry Jarrod, normally you make reasonable posts regarding sales, but did you not pay any attention the past 2 E3's regarding MGS3? or TGS? I'll agree that getting much past a million this year may be a HUGE task with the competition, but I'd still say it's probably the second most anticipated PS2 game this year behind GTA.

I'm not sure about MGS's first months numbers, but it did come on Nov 21st last time, so it had a little over a weeks sales. I know it had 1.4 million by May 2002.

But the ONLY million seller at the point that it came out was GT3. The userbase was much smaller. Now, there's almost 50 million sellers, with like 15 of them being million sellers inside of 2 months of release, and you don't think MGS3 will be one of them?

 

[Catchpenny]

The sad fact is, it wont. It probably wont make the sales of NFSU, though.

Well, that's a better way of putting it. The sales won't be horrible, but I think it'll definitely fall short of the original, and not meet expectations. Competition this year is much stronger than what the original game faced. Selling a quickie, year-later sequel to a racing title is tougher than selling quick sequels to other types of games, IMO.

Then again, EA turned the yearly sports sequel into a goldmine, so they'll probably prove me wrong here.

 

[jarrod]

No, I was in the german Frankfurt in Konami Europe's headquarter last year and I was told that MGS2 did about 0,8-0,9 millions more worldwide than MGS1. You may not know, but it was HUGE here in Europe - even more than in USA and Japan.
By the way, I am not in the industry - I was there because of the invitation of a friend.

Well then I stand corrected. MGS2 also did slightly better in Japan iirc.

Europe's strange, it seems to be the biggest market for a lot of JP PlayStation series... off the top of my head Gran Turismo, Time Crisis, Moto GP, Silent Hill, Tekken, Winning Eleven/PES and now Metal Gear. Weird. :/

You understand it wrong. Hardcore gamers brought it to the casuals. It wasn't an instant hit. It's not an FPS either. Damn, I think you need to look into this game. The ONLY problem (granted, it's huge) is that the damn cheaters are everywhere.

Well, just going by what I understood. And yeah SOCOM wasn't an instant huge hit, but it had huge legs and a longer than usual ad campaign. I do think Killzopne will do better out the gate though, again partly due to it being positioned as a Halo 2 alternative for PS2 only casuals.

Not relevant? I'm sorry Jarrod, normally you make reasonable posts regarding sales, but did you not pay any attention the past 2 E3's regarding MGS3? or TGS?

I'm not sure about MGS's first months numbers, but it did come on Nov 21st last time, so it had a little over a weeks sales. I know it had 1.4 million by May 2002.

But the ONLY million seller at the point that it came out was GT3. The userbase was much smaller. Now, there's almost 50 million sellers, with like 15 of them being million sellers inside of 2 months of release, and you don't think MGS3 will be one of them?

I've paid attention, MGS3 looks like a great sequel but it can't ride the general PS2 hype MGS2 did. There's far bigger games on the horizon, MGS3 just isn't the industry shattering event MGS2 was... and it won't sell nearly as well I'd wager. I think there's also some MGS2 backlash hurting the franchise a little too, it's just not the casual monster it used to be.

 

[sonycowboy]

I've paid attention, MGS3 looks like a great sequel but it can't ride the general PS2 hype MGS2 did. There's far bigger games on the horizon, MGS3 just isn't the industry shattering event MGS2 was... and it won't sell nearly as well I'd wager. I think there's also some MGS2 backlash hurting the franchise a little too, it's just not the casual monster it used to be.

Anything can happen, but it's very hard to try and project game sales on it when it came out back in 2001, when there were < 5 million PS2's in the US at it's launch, and this year, there will be 25 million PS2's in the US.

I am completely baffled by how it sells ABSOLUTELY NO UNITS anymore. I know stores don't carry it much anymore, but why? Did Konami stop printing it or what? I can't think of another big Greatest Hits that has completely died the way it has.

 

[Subitai]

Wow, that is great logic. So if Gran Turismo 3 wont sell more than 5.000 units the month before GT4, GT4 will bomb big time compared to it? You know, I'd say everybody who wanted MGS2 until now already has it and worldwide this are more people, than at the first part. There are just major hits, which have legs for years and gain great numbers that way, or hits, which sell a ton in few months and then it's over. If many random multiplatform games could do above a million on PS2, MGS3 can't stay behind.

I'm just saying there is no regular demand for MGS or stealth games in general like there is for FPS. MoH sold more than MGS2 and the lack luster performances of good SC games makes me think any well marketed FPS game has a better shot at selling better. Out of Killzone, Call of Duty, and GE2, I'd say MGS3 is only going to average better than 2 of them over the next 2 months and by this time next year be behind 2 of them.

 

[Subitai]

Anything can happen, but it's very hard to try and project game sales on it when it came out back in 2001, when there were < 5 million PS2's in the US at it's launch, and this year, there will be 25 million PS2's in the US.

I am completely baffled by how it sells ABSOLUTELY NO UNITS anymore. I know stores don't carry it much anymore, but why? Did Konami stop printing it or what? I can't think of another big Greatest Hits that has completely died the way it has.

It's not just that. It was pretty available last Christmas and only did ~21k in Dec. combined while AUF alone did 57k and MOH: FL did 151k.

 

[Alcibiades]

ha, no way MGS3 does 1.5 million by the end of the year...

just look at past sales charts...

the only games doing more than from now till the end of year are San Andreas and Halo 2 (which after hearing reports am doubting my prediction that halo 2 will come out higher, but I'll wait to hear what the Halo 2 lines are like)...

Even the most popular of games like Final Fantasy and Mario Kart last year barely managed a million...

 

[snapty00]

I'm not sure about REVENUE, but I'd bet anything they would've made more PROFIT by sticking a resolution-enhanced, emulated version of GoldenEye for Nintendo 64 on a disc and selling it for $25.

 

[J2 Cool]

Trust me, MGS3 WILL break 1 million by the end of this year, easy

 

[Deku Tree]

Anything can happen, but it's very hard to try and project game sales on it when it came out back in 2001, when there were < 5 million PS2's in the US at it's launch, and this year, there will be 25 million PS2's in the US.

I am completely baffled by how it sells ABSOLUTELY NO UNITS anymore. I know stores don't carry it much anymore, but why? Did Konami stop printing it or what? I can't think of another big Greatest Hits that has completely died the way it has.

The other side of the "there were less PS2's back then" argument is that there are more game options for PS2 owners now. I'm in the MGS3 will sell good but it wont be nearly as good as past installments of the series boat. I'm just thinking from my limited converstations with other gamers, but many of them that I know who bought MGS2 because of the hype and are choosing not to return for more.