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[Fragamemnon]

I've been watching this storm develop with increasing horror over the past eighteen hours or so. Here's the skinny, in pictoral format:

Katrina is currently undergoing eyewall replacement but most of the models have it reaching top winds between 120 and 130 knots (140-150 mph) when it makes landfall. The curvature seen in the forecast map above is already happening, and the forecast models are converging about as well as they possibly can:

I'm most worried about New Orleans, the classic "worst case scenario" city. The city is essentiually at the bottom of a "bowl" and, in most parts of it, the only way to remove water once it is there is through pumping it out since most of it lies below sea level. I'd think hard about evacuation if you're in New Orleans. Stay safe people, and hopefully this storm will take out some piece of shit place in Texass or Mississippi instead of hitting the Crescent City, truly one of the Southeast's few unique treasures.

 

[Vibri]

What does this have to do with Los Angeles?

 

[xsarien]

What does this have to do with Los Angeles?

Ladies and gentlemen, the United States' education system.

How about a round of applause, huh?

 

[Matrix]

What does this have to do with Los Angeles?

:lol :lol Oh man.

 

[sprsk]

wow its g onna hit memphis hope it doesnt hit too hard.

 

[PotatoeMasher]

The only good news is that the storm is approaching from the south... If it were from the east the flooding would be much more severe...

Either way, it's no fun... hope everyone stays safe...

 

[MetatronM]

What does this have to do with Los Angeles?

Wow.



Anyway, it seems weird to me that this storm was a pretty big non-event done here (it was a bit more eventful down in Broward and Miami-Dade), and yet it has somehow turned into a real monster of a hurricane.

 

[Pimpwerx]

New Orleans is due for a strike. I mean, Miami just got pegged....again. My morbid curiosity wants to see what happend to New Orleans if a major storm hits. What level is the Mississippi at this time of year? I'm sure they can just close the floodgates and ride it out...I think. PEACE.

 

[MIMIC]

What does this have to do with Los Angeles?

I almost asked the same question. :lol I didn't know it was gonna hit Louisiana...but when I saw the hurricane's projected path, I went, "Oh."

 

[Outlaw]

What does this have to do with Los Angeles?

 

[Desperado]

Stay safe people, and hopefully this storm will take out some piece of shit place in Texass or Mississippi instead of hitting the Crescent City, truly one of the Southeast's few unique treasures.

Shut up.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Shut up.

It's going to hit somewhere. Would you rather it hit somewhere vulnerable like a city of hundreds of thousands of people, many of which are very, very poor (I've done poverty work there in the past) and will have no chance to evacuate outside of running to the Superdome, or land in country bumpkinville where loss of life and property will be kept to a minimum?

I'm sure we'd all rather see this thing not hit anywhere and magically disappear from the ocean. Not going to happen, so might as well wish that the most hurricane-vulnerable city in the US doesn't get hit head-on by a storm.

 

[teh_pwn]

This isn't good for New Orleans at all.

 

[psycho_snake]

What does this have to do with Los Angeles?

:lol

 

[tigerfan12345]

I live in baton rouge, but all my immediate family lives in new orleans. Of course, they've already started plans to evacuate. It sucks, becasue they've evacuated the past 4 times, and its ended up staying bright and sunny, but the risks are just too large to stick around, so they are gonna evacuate again. evacuating and nothing happening is what Im hoping for again.

 

[Santo]

i'm taking cover right now. thanks for the heads up.

 

[ConfusingJazz]

What does this have to do with Los Angeles?

You know, I once made this mistake when I was about 7. Then I found out about the US Postal System in school.

 

[Hotsuma]

The people that don't have cars are really in a bad situation. Unfortunately, I'm stuck waiting to find out if my mother has to go to work Sunday morning.

By us being hospital employees, some work stations have to show up when a severe weather threat is issued. I was already informed that I have to show up on Sunday, but with my mother not being notified, there is no way that I can just leave her here without transportation. I hope she gets some sort of notification by tonight so some sort of plans can be made.

 

[pulsemyne]

This could be a cat 5 hurricane if it does some explosive deepening. Very bad news if your in its way so if you are review your emergency procedures in case of hurricane and get safe.

 

[Spike Spiegel]

Currently west of the storm's projected path, but that could change if it doesn't turn north soon enough.


Should be fun.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

It's going to hit somewhere. Would you rather it hit somewhere vulnerable like a city of hundreds of thousands of people, many of which are very, very poor (I've done poverty work there in the past) and will have no chance to evacuate outside of running to the Superdome, or land in country bumpkinville where loss of life and property will be kept to a minimum?

I'm sure we'd all rather see this thing not hit anywhere and magically disappear from the ocean. Not going to happen, so might as well wish that the most hurricane-vulnerable city in the US doesn't get hit head-on by a storm.

A little more tact like that starting off would've went a long way towards you not looking cold about "shit places".

Anyways, the scary thing about those except for the orange path hit La, and the orange one hits Alabama, which ate one last year.

 

[Phoenix]

Most New Orleans (and Mississippi) people that I know are already on the move either up to Baton Rouge to stay there for the night, or west to Texas. Some however are going to ride Katrina out.

There are also some people in the unfortunate situation of being unable to leave because of the near $3/gallon gas prices and are pretty much stuck in shelters.

 

[xabre]

Let's hope it wipes out some oil rigs and sends the price skyrocketing.

 

[Phoenix]

Let's hope it wipes out some oil rigs and sends the price skyrocketing.

Don't worry, the prices will be going up because production is down due to the storm in the gulf. Most of the rigs in that area have/will be evacuated resulting in many days of no oil production.

 

[xabre]

Don't worry, the prices will be going up because production is down due to the storm in the gulf. Most of the rigs in that area have/will be evacuated resulting in many days of no oil production.

Oh good

 

[xabre]

As for the storm, it sounds nasty. And it's re-developed quickly, wasn't it only a few days ago that it was downgraded to a tropical storm?

 

[TheKingsCrown]

The latest satellite picture looks a bit ominous.

Barometric pressure is dropping and winds will likely be bumped during the next advisory. If the storm hits New Orleans as a CAT 4 or 5, several doomsday scenarios that the Weather Channel originally proposed in the mid 90's will come true. Storms of this strength are so fickle though...they strengthen and weaken in a heart beat.

Edit: From CNN: Hurricane Katrina is now packing winds of 145 mph, classifying it as a Category 4 storm, the National Hurricane Center said early Sunday. Details soon

A jump of 30 mph winds is quite an exponential jump. I wouldn't say that satellite supports those wind speeds, and I might even hazard that the National Weather Service is jumping the gun and trying to scare people out of LA due to the 30% probability that the storm will landfall @ 145 strength. In either case, the storm is clearly getting better organized.

 

[CB3]

What does this have to do with Los Angeles?

:lol Ill admit that thought crossed my mind for a brief second, but quickly realized it wasnt. I have an excuse though as i live in LA so i see those letters all the time.

 

[Suikoguy]

Yes, this could really be the worst case scenario people have worried about since we began to study hurricanes.. having lived through the worst parts of charley (at 14 feet above sea level mind you) I fear for what may happen

 

[Hitokage]

A jump of 30 mph winds is quite an exponential jump. I wouldn't say that satellite supports those wind speeds, and I might even hazard that the National Weather Service is jumping the gun and trying to scare people out of LA due to the 30% probability that the storm will landfall @ 145 strength. In either case, the storm is clearly getting better organized.

You don't measure hurricane strength by how it looks on the sattelite. What matters are the maximum sustained wind speeds at the middle for categorization, and then air pressure for general hurricane strength(and at 935mb they are not bullshitting) Everything else is secondary.

 

[Scalemail Ted]

*sigh*

Im sitting here, in Jefferson Parish...(Right outside of New Orleans)

Watching the projected trajectory gunning right for us :-/

 

[Suikoguy]

*sigh*

Im sitting here, in Jefferson Parish...(Right outside of New Orleans)

Watching the projected trajectory gunning right for us :-/

What is your elevation?

 

[MIMIC]

Damn! This thing is a Category 4! (145 mph sustained winds)

 

[MIMIC]

*sigh*

Im sitting here, in Jefferson Parish...(Right outside of New Orleans)

Watching the projected trajectory gunning right for us :-/

Um, isn't there like a mandatory evacuation in that area?

 

[SolidSnakex]

Um, isn't there like a mandatory evacuation in that area?

They can't make people leave. Alot of people want to stick it out even with the projected path.

 

[Suikoguy]

What people don't get, if they are not at least a decent amount above sea level (14feet+) they could very well be underwater. It all depends on where the storm hits.

 

[MIMIC]

They can't make people leave. Alot of people want to stick it out even with the projected path.

Given the hoopla about how catastrophic a direct hit from Katrina would be to New Orleans, that's a really dumb move.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Given the hoopla about how catastrophic a direct hit from Katrina would be to New Orleans, that's a really dumb move.

Depending on where it hits it could be a really bad move, but i'm probably sticking it out too (i'm in southern MS). People in LA have said they've stuck it out through Betsy so they'll stick it out through this.

 

[Scalemail Ted]

St Charles Parish is under a Mandatory Evacuation. Jefferson and New Orleans Parish are still under a voluntary Evacuation.

Most people i know are leaving tomorrow. I actually have work tomorrow :-/


I live in the Harahan/River Ridge area which sits between 10-17 feet in elevation if I recall.


New Orleans is is a bit worse shape:

Built like a soup bowl

 

[Suikoguy]

Interesting image, I was looking for something like that.. really scarry (yet somewhat realistic) way of looking at it.

 

[Scalemail Ted]

The fear has always been that a hurricane's storm surge will push the water from the gulf into the lake overflowing it beyond the levies flooding the entire city.



Edit:
If you wanna watch our news streaming through the web they have it available

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

 

[Scalemail Ted]

EVACUATIONS

Mandatory: Terrebonne Parish south of the Intracoastal waterway beginning at 6 a.m. St. Tammany Parish south of I-12, St. Charles Parish, Lafourche Parish south of Leon Theriot floodgates, Plaquemines Phase I, Barataria, Lafitte, Crown Point in Jefferson Parish, Hancock County, MS and Waveland, MS.

Voluntary: Jefferson Parish, low-lying St. Bernard Parish, low-lying Terrebonne Parish, Grand Isle, Lafourche Parish north of Leon Theriot floodgates, Orleans Parish, Lower Ninth Ward and low-lying areas of New Orleans, and the low-lying areas of Bay St. Louis.

A detailed listing of evacuations.


Edit:

The most current tracking:
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512.gif

(should be updated in about 2 hours)

 

[Lardbutt]

several doomsday scenarios that the Weather Channel originally proposed in the mid 90's will come true.

What is this doomsday scenario exactly?

How many potential deaths are we looking at if the entire city of New Orleans gets flooded?

 

[Scalemail Ted]

several doomsday scenarios that the Weather Channel originally proposed in the mid 90's will come true.

This is just wrong... this doomsday scenario was proposed as far back as the 60s .....stupid Weather Channel taking credit for everything.

 

[xabre]

They couldn't possibly pick a more idiotic place to put a city.

 

[Scalemail Ted]

They couldn't possibly pick a more idiotic place to put a city.

Blame the french.

 

[Scalemail Ted]

What is this doomsday scenario exactly?

How many potential deaths are we looking at if the entire city of New Orleans gets flooded?

New Orleans, a city of nearly 1.4 million people, sits below sea level, as much as 8 feet lower than water in nearby Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River and its delta, where it empties into the Gulf of Mexico. This in effect creates a "bowl" that floodwaters can settle into, like water headed for a stopped-up drain.
To combat this unique problem, a system of levees surrounds the city to hold back the waters of Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south, says Joseph Suhayda, director of the Louisiana Water Resources Research Institute at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge. The levee that holds back Lake Pontchartrain is 15 feet high while the one guarding against the Mississippi River is 20 feet tall.

Suhayda says the 15-foot levee will protect the city from a minimum hurricane of Category 1 or 2 intensity and at best a fast-moving Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale.

"A slow-moving Category 3 or any Category 4 or 5 hurricane passing within 20 or 30 miles of New Orleans would be devastating," Suhayda says.

The storm surge — water pushed into a mound by hurricane winds — would pour over the Pontchartrain levee and flood the city. A severe hurricane could push floodwaters inside the New Orleans bowl as high as 20-30 feet, covering most homes and the first three or four stories of buildings in the city, he says. "This brings a great risk of casualties."

In this type of scenario the metro area could be submerged for more than 10 weeks, says Walter S. Maestri, Director of Emergency Management for Jefferson Parish, which encompasses more than half of the city. In those 10 weeks, residents would need drinking water, food and a dry place to live.

Besides the major problems flooding would bring, there is also concern about a potentially explosive and deadly problem. Suhayda says flooding of the whole city could easily mix industrial and household chemicals into a toxic and volatile mix. Coupled with an estimated 100,000 tons of sediment, a cleanup could take several months. In the worst case scenario, the mix of toxic chemicals could make some areas of the city uninhabitable. "It could take several years for the city to recover fully, economically, from a strong hurricane,"

source: http://www.petrifiedtruth.com/archives/001925.html


an illustration of New Orleans elevation in relation to the bodies of water which surround it:
(I posted this earlier)

 

[Hitokage]

They couldn't possibly pick a more idiotic place to put a city.

You know, that goes for a huge number of settlements. People just don't care.

 

[SolidSnakex]

The new advisory is out, same wind speed but its now moving at 10mph instead.

 

[Scalemail Ted]

This image will autoupdate.