IGNXbox Predicts the Future: Part 2
The crystal ball shows the fate of Xbox 2 in 2005.
By Hilary Goldstein & Douglass C. Perry
January 4, 2005 - Yesterday, we looked into our crystal ball to predict some of the major Xbox happenings for 2005. Today it goes a step further with a specific look at Xbox 2. While a prediction is never a certainty, we are confident in the following seven statements. These are not wishes, hopes, or wild fantasies. Each prediction is based upon inside knowledge from multiple sources and fleshed out by our understanding of Microsoft and the games industry.
The start of a new year seems the perfect time to take a look into the future of Xbox. We're not suggesting the events below may happen, we're saying that they will come to pass. According to IGNXbox (and our crystal ball) here are seven things to count on for Xbox 2 in 2005.
Xbox 2 debuts at GDC in March.
Xbox 2 Fall 2005 Launch
Microsoft has said nothing official about any "new system," but good word on the street is that Microsoft will not announce the system at CES, nor at E3. Instead, following tradition, it will announce its new system at the annual Game Developers' Conference, with one spanking new IP that is not a car crashing into a wall at high speeds. (God, we hope this prediction is right! One more car crashing sequence or XNA explanation and we're going to slit our wrists with a broken Bad Boys II game DVD.) All obviousness aside, Microsoft will indeed launch the Xbox 2, which may very well be called the Xenon when all is said and done, in November 2005.
Xbox 2 Launch Details
According to our sources, the system is said to be smaller than the first Xbox, less bulky, and is said to look somewhere in between the current Xbox and the PS2 Slim. The system will likely include an alternative for RF wireless controllers and Ethernet connections built into the system. And here's the biggie, it may have 30-40 games before the end of the year. If we remember correctly, the Dreamcast, and then the PS2, had the respective records on most games at launch. But Microsoft sees the launch window as about two months, as opposed to the launch day, which is only one 24-hour period. So, that big of a window seems more reasonable for such high numbers. Lastly, an emphasis will be placed on Microsoft's third parties, as opposed to its internal first-party games.
Xbox 2 to be like PSTwo?
Brute Force 2 is coming.
First-Party Sequels Galore
Microsoft set a precedent with releasing sequels every other year. With the exception of Halo 2, which took three years, Microsoft's popular first-party games have all had sequels two years after release (MechAssault 2, Project Gotham Racing 2, Amped 2). It seems logical, then, that we can expect a number of sequels to hit in 2005. Look for Brute Force 2, Amped 3, Crimson Skies 2, Top Spin 2, and Project Gotham Racing 3 before the end of the year. The question is, which system will these arrive on -- Xbox or Xbox 2? Expect a mixture with half on Xbox, half on Xbox 2 (as Microsoft must continue to support the original Xbox through 2005). PGR 3 seems destined as an Xbox 2 title, likely a launch title, as does Brute Force 2.
Dare we dream?
More Third-Party Support
In the early days, Microsoft learned that it might be a slow company to get things right, but that it always tried to correct its mistakes and errors in the next iteration, sequel, or whatever. You can see this progress in its Word and Windows launches, and we expect to see it with Xbox 2. So, in that light, the Xbox 2 will have a lot more third-party support, especially from Japanese companies. Though nothing is confirmed as of yet (actually not a single fact on Xbox 2 has been confirmed by Microsoft ever, including its very existence), expect to see Konami, Namco, Capcom and hopefully Square-Enix jump on board as the Xbox 2 owns the next-generation spotlight in its first year. Square-Enix is obviously the hardest company to get, but remember, Square and Enix jumped ship from Nintendo to PlayStation back in the day (using the medium as the reason), so count on some changes in this next generation. The real question is whether these Japanese companies will put their AAA titles on both system, as opposed to what they're doing now, which is AAA titles on PS2, A and B titles on Xbox.
Rarely On Time
Microsoft will finally announce the release of Perfect Dark Zero, but for Xbox 2. We predict it's going to be slated for a launch with the system (as one of the few first-party launch titles), but when it all comes down to it, Perfect Dark Zero will not make launch. Instead, it'll come out sometime in early winter of 2006. In fact, we're willing to predict that Kameo is secretly being made for Xbox 2 as well, and it too is slated for launch, or sometime thereafter. And it too will be delayed again. We hate to be so cynical (though admittedly it's kind of fun), but after a few burns, you just don't want to count on a game being on time. And with Rare, their pattern is almost always to be late. Love the games! Love them! But, they're not very often on time.
Microsoft's Success Forces Sony's Hand
Though the original Xbox never comes close to Sony's market share, the early launch of Xbox 2 causes Sony major concern. With numerous third-party developers in tow, including several Japanese developers, Xbox 2 has a strong launch. With momentum swinging in Microsoft's favor, Sony announces a Q1 2006 launch for PS3 in Japan. Rather than wait a half year for a U.S. and European launch, Sony ups the timetable by three months in an effort to maintain dominance in the marketplace. For the first time in many years, Sony is on the defensive.
Dinos shall rule the Earth again on Xbox 2.
Molyneux Makes Splash on Xbox 2
Peter Molyneux hasn't kept it secret that Fable 2 is an inevitability. While many have speculated on a "Fable 1.5" that would add a new area to explore through downloadable content, this is not going to happen. Instead, a sequel to Fable, featuring many of the ground-breaking elements that were left off the original version, should make its debut on Xbox 2 in 2006. We'll get our first look at this exciting sequel towards the end of 2005. Molyneux's other Xbox game, B.C. is also a certainty for Xbox 2. Remember that a sequel to B.C. was announced before the game was oddly cancelled for Xbox. What's the real deal? With B.C. facing another major delay, Microsoft and Intepid decided to meld the first B.C. with the planned Xbox 2 sequel. An early 2006 release is likely, but a showing, probably at X'05 in Europe, seems probable.
Chief's final journey won't happen in 2005.
Halo 3
It's our belief that Halo 3 will not ship with the launch of Xbox 2. It will instead launch in fall 2006 on Xbox 2, simultaneously with the release of PS3 and the Nintendo Revolution as a counter punch. Bungie will not cut corners to try and make launch only one year after Halo 2. It will buckle down and make a killer third game in the series, perhaps ending the series proper, while simultaneously working on a brand new franchise unrelated to Halo that's not a first-person shooter. We predict Bungie will make awesome sequel to Fusion Frenzy with Halo characters! WOOT! Just kidding. Really, just kidding.
With the predictions for the year out of the way, it's time to cover the hell out of Xbox and Xbox 2 for the rest of the year and see if we're really as smart as we think.
http://xbox.ign.com/articles/577/577402p1.html?fromint=1
me wants Halo 2 HD / Directors Cut / 2.5 whatever. me wants new Daytona from Sega with FULL System Link and LIVE gameplay. me wants Namco support. Tekken 5 upgrade?
Ninja Gaiden 2, DOA4, new Air Force Delta, Mech Assault 3, PGR3, Burnout 4....bring it on baby.
@ign
